Aug. 1, 2014, 12:26 PM
- Solar stocks are underperforming (TAN -4%) amid a market selloff after SunPower (SPWR -8.5%) posted mixed Q2 results and provided Q3/2014 guidance ranges with midpoints below consensus.
- SunPower also announced it's building a new plant (Fab 5) that could go live in 2017 and eventually produce 700MW+/year of modules, boosting its capacity by over 50%. "Our share has been in single digits for a while and demand for the last 24 months suggests that we can expand share," says CEO Tom Werner.
- The announcement comes 6 weeks after SolarCity (SCTY -3.5%) unveiled plans to build a 1GW+ module plant with newly-acquired Silevo's help, and said it will later build "one or more significantly larger plants at an order of magnitude greater annual production capacity."
- Minimal capacity investments, together with rising U.S./Asian demand, have helped module prices stabilize following gut-wrenching declines in prior years.
- Also: SunPower stated on its CC (transcript) it hasn't decided whether to create a solar project YieldCo similar to SunEdison's (SUNE -4.3%) TerraForm Power (TERP -4.7%), which recently turned in a strong IPO. "It does not look like the company is likely to make a decision anytime soon," says Raymond James.
- Nonetheless, Brean has upgraded SunPower to Buy, citing optimism about strong demand and healthy pricing.
- Other notable decliners: FSLR -3.6%. TSL -8.4%. JKS -6%. CSIQ -5.6%. CSUN -5.7%. YGE -5%. SOL -4.5%. ENPH -5.8%. RGSE -4.5%. HSOL -3.9%. JASO -4.4%.
Jul. 28, 2014, 7:59 AM
- Solar names are under pressure following the U.S. government's move to place anti-dumping duties as high as 165% percent on solar panels and cells from China.
- China condemns the action, saying "if escalating problems in the China-U.S. solar industry are ignored, in the end it will damage up and downstream industries in both countries."
- Moving sharply lower premarket: YGE -5.1%, CSIQ -4.3%, JKS -3.8%, TSL -2.7%, JASO -2.5%, SCTY -2.2%, HSOL -4.9%
- Moving up: SPWR +1.8%, FSLR +2.7%.
- ETFs: TAN, KWT
Jul. 27, 2014, 10:18 PM
- The Commerce Department has imposed preliminary anti-dumping tariffs ranging from 26%-165% on Chinese and Taiwanese solar cell/module imports. The tariffs come on top of the anti-subsidy tariffs imposed in early June, and in spite of a WTO ruling declaring U.S. solar tariffs violate global trade rules.
- Among the affected exporters,Trina (NYSE:TSL) is getting off the lightest: Between the June and July tariffs, it's dealing with a combined rate of 29.3%.
- Yingli (NYSE:YGE), Canadian Solar (CSIQ), and Hanwha (NASDAQ:HSOL) are set to pay a combined rate of 47.27%, and Suntech (NYSE:STP) a combined rate of 49.24%. ReneSola (NYSE:SOL) and JinkoSolar (NYSE:JKS) have to pay a 58.87% anti-dumping rate.
- Chinese module makers can pay 2012 tariff rates instead if they use Chinese (rather than Taiwanese) cells. Those rates are generally a little milder, often ranging from 24%-31%.
- "The tariffs in this case are so high as to prohibit basically any manufacturer from selling at a competitive price in to the U.S," says GTM Research's Shayle Kann. A final DOC ruling on the tariffs is expected around Dec. 15, and an ITC ruling on Jan. 29. (the full ruling - .pdf)
- U.S. rivals First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR) and SunPower (NASDAQ:SPWR) stand to benefit. Their shares rose following the June tariff announcement.
- Other Chinese solar firms: JASO, CSUN, LDK
Jun. 17, 2014, 12:55 PM
- SolarCity has announced plans to build a 1GW+ module plant in NY, and to follow it up with one or more much larger facilities. Notably, the company declares (in spite of a current capacity glut) it needs to build the plants to meet long-term solar demand.
- Yingli missed Q1 estimates, but reported a healthy gross margin (thanks in part to strong Japanese sales) and reiterated full-year guidance.
- Also: Goldman is out with a bullish note, predicting rooftop solar installations will post a 40% CAGR through 2016.
- Gainers: FSLR +2.8%. SPWR +4.2%. SUNE +4.4%. JASO +8.2%. SOL +7.5%. JKS +6.5%. CSIQ +7.4%. DQ +4.2%. ASTI +3.9%. HSOL +6.9%. TSL +5.6%. ENPH +3.5%. CSUN +3.7%. RGSE +11.3% (announced a new Hawaiian deal).
- SolarCity's plans are a positive for equipment vendors GT Advanced (GTAT +1.5%) and Veeco (VECO +1.6%), each of which has seen its solar orders plummet thanks to the capacity glut.
- Solar ETFs: KWT, TAN
- Yesterday: Solar stocks rally; Deutsche upbeat on YieldCo potential
Jun. 4, 2014, 9:30 AM
- The Department of Commerce has imposed new preliminary tariffs on Chinese solar module imports, covering both modules featuring Chinese and non-Chinese cells. Trina (NYSE:TSL) is seeing an 18.56% tariff, bankrupt Suntech (NYSE:STP) a 35.21% tariff, and most other firms a 26.89% tariff.
- The move follows a complaint from Germany's SolarWorld that Chinese firms are using a loophole involving imported cells to sidestep the DOCs 2012 tariffs. A separate anti-dumping decision is due on July 25.
- Morgan Stanley notes many were expecting either a lower tariff (perhaps around 15%) or a settlement similar to the EU/China deal. Not surprisingly, the Chinese government says it's "strongly dissatisfied" with the DOC's action, and warns it could hurt trade ties.
- Chinese solar exporters are off: TSL -6.2%. YGE -5.8%. CSIQ -5.1%. JKS -8.8%. JASO -4.4%. CSUN -3.3%.
- U.S. peers First Solar (FSLR +2.5%) and SunPower (SPWR +5.5%) are higher. But SolarCity (SCTY -2.8%) and SunEdison (SUNE -3.5%) are off, as investors fear higher panel costs for solar projects. Also: SunEdison has announced a new $500M convertible debt offering. $350M-$400M of the proceeds will go to its TerraForm Power (Pending:TERP) spinoff.
- Solar ETFs: KWT, TAN
May 21, 2014, 11:36 AM
- Though Trina's Q1 module shipments were only in-line with the company's revised guidance, it's expecting Q2 shipments will rise 70%-81% Q/Q.
- Volatile solar stocks are responding well (TAN +3.8%) to Trina's outlook, which follows a more subdued Q2 growth forecast from Canadian Solar (CSIQ +3.6%) last Friday, and comes amid general concerns about Chinese growth.
- Notable gainers (besides Trina): CSUN +14.1%. SOL +8.7%. JKS +6.6%. YGE +5.9%. DQ +5.7%. JASO +4.9%. ASTI +6.8%. ENPH +3.9%. SUNE +2.7%.
- NPD Solarbuzz recently noted the world's top-20 module suppliers are collectively forecasting 30%+ 2014 shipment growth. The firm added the outlooks imply 2014 end-market demand will be near 50GW.
May 8, 2014, 9:16 AM
May 8, 2014, 8:13 AM
- JA Solar's (JASO) Q1 cell/module shipments totaled 638.1MW, -4.1% Q/Q and +44.1% Y/Y, and soundly above guidance of 580MW-610MW. Shipments are expected to grow to 670MW-700MW in Q2.
- For now, full-year guidance of 2.7GW-2.9GW (200MW for JA's downstream projects) is being reiterated.
- Gross margin rose to 16.7% in Q1 from 15.5% in Q4 and 6% a year ago. Opex rose 18% Y/Y, less than rev. growth of 35.7%.
- While cell shipments fell 17.2% Q/Q to 250MW, module shipments rose 6.8% to 388MW.
- Thanks to surging Japanese demand, Asia-Pac markets other than China made up 52.8% of Q1 shipments. Europe (14.8% of shipments) was also a geographic strong point. China only accounted for 26% of Q1 shipments (seasonality), and the U.S. 4.1%.
- Q1 results, PR
May 8, 2014, 7:14 AM
May 7, 2014, 5:30 PM
- AEE, AES, AGO, AMCX, AMED, AMRC, APA, APO, BBEP, BCRX, BDBD, BITA, BPI, CAJ, CBB, CCC, CCOI, CDW, CECE, CECO, CRIS, CRNT, CSTE, CVC, DF, DISH, DNDN, FLY, FSYS, FUN, FXCM, GBDC, GLP, GOLD, GTN, GTXI, HCN, HII, HIMX, HSC, ICE, IRC, JASO, KEM, KERX, LIOX, LNCE, LPI, LPX, LQDT, LXP, LXRX, MGA, MMS, MNK, MPEL, NICE, NPSP, NXST, NXTM, ONE, PCLN, PCP, PKD, POZN, PRFT, REGN, RGEN, RSTI, SKYW, SNI, SPH, SRPT, STE, SUNE, TDC, THS, VC, VITC, VNDA, VRX, WAC, WD, WEN, WIN, WMC, WWAV.
Apr. 28, 2014, 2:15 PM
- The latest rout in once-high-flying tech momentum plays isn't leaving solar stocks unscathed. The Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN -6.2%) is now down 21% from its March 7 high of $51.07.
- Likely adding fuel to the fire: Credit Suisse has slashed its 2014 Chinese solar installation forecast by 500MW to 11.5GW, soundly below the government's 14GW target (set in February). CS thinks policy changes related to utility-scale projects, feed-in tariff reimbursement, and distributed solar incentives are needed for investment to pick up.
- The firm adds JinkoSolar (JKS -10.8%), Trina (TSL -12.2%), and Canadian Solar (CSIQ -12.8%) are well-positioned to profit from downstream projects, given they have access to financing from the China Development Bank and other sources. On the other hand, it thinks Yingli (YGE -4.1%) and ReneSola (SOL -8.8%) are "less likely to access project capital due to their strained balance sheets." Yingli recently priced a stock offering expected to yield $83M in net proceeds.
- Other decliners: FSLR -5.3%. SCTY -7.1%. SUNE -6.8%. CSUN -9.8%. JASO -9.4%. DQ -9.3%. HSOL -5.9%. SPWR -5.1%.
Apr. 22, 2014, 3:56 PM
- Solar stocks are among the biggest winners (TAN +5.2%) on a good day for momentum stocks.
- SunEdison (SUNE +11.6%) is leading the pack after David Einhorn disclosed he has added to the position he started in Q4, and predicted lower solar costs and rising electricity prices should make the company a "winner." Einhorn is less crazy about tech momentum plays in general.
- Meanwhile, Canadian Solar is benefiting from a Japanese module deal, and SunPower (SPWR +6.5%) and SolarCity (SCTY +6.4%) are getting a lift from a Goldman note calling the companies its two best solar ideas. SunPower reports on Thursday.
- Other notable gainers: YGE +7.9%. DQ +9.2%. JKS +7.4%. SOL +6.8%. HSOL +6.7%. ENPH +6.2%. JASO +4.5%.
Apr. 16, 2014, 9:43 AM
- The U.S. Energy Department plans to offer up to $4B in loan guarantees to renewable energy projects, focusing on advanced electric grid technology and storage, biofuels that can be used in conventional vehicles, energy from waste products and energy efficiency improvements.
- Despite the high-profile collapse of Solyndra, the Obama administration believes most of its energy investments have done well, and it credits the program with strengthening the U.S. solar industry.
- Solar stocks: TAN, JASO, SPWR, TSL, FSLR, LDK, CSIQ, YGE, SOL, JKS, CSUN, SCTY, HSOL, EMKR, SUNE, DQ.
- Battery related names: PLUG, BLDP, CBAK, ZBB, ABAT, ULBI, ENS, HPJ.
- EV cars: TSLA.
Apr. 14, 2014, 11:57 AM
- JA Solar (JASO +7.4%) now expects Q1 solar cell/module shipments to top 620MW, putting them above prior guidance of 580MW-610MW. In addition, gross margin is expected to rise from a Q4 level of 15.5% (already up 420 bps Q/Q).
- Full-year cell/module guidance (2.7GW-2.9GW, of which 200MW is expected to involve JA's downstream projects) is being reiterated.
- JA's Q1 guidance hike comes in spite of recent warnings from Yingli and Trina.
Apr. 10, 2014, 4:01 PM
- Following a two-day rebound, high-beta tech stocks are seeing monumental losses once again. The Nasdaq is closing with its biggest one-day decline since 2011 (eclipsing last week's 110-point drop).
- Security hardware/software providers were hard-hit following Imperva's (IMPV -43.8%) big warning: FEYE -11.6%. PANW -6.4%. PFPT -9.8%. FFIV -4.7%. KEYW -6.5%. FTNT -6.9%. QLYS -10.4%.
- Other high-beta enterprise names didn't fare much better: DATA -10%. SPLK -10.3%. WDAY -9.3%. VRNS -8%. EOPN -7.9%. FIO -7.6%. BLOX -9.7%.
- Major Internet decliners: P -11%. YELP -10.6%. ZNGA -6.6%. YY -7.3%. QIHU -9.3%. SINA -6.6%.
- Solar: TSL -10.4%. CSIQ -10.4%. JKS -7.9%. SPWR -7.4%. JASO -6.8%. CSUN -8.2%.
- 3D printing: DDD -10.6%. VJET -13.3%. ONVO -8.1%. XONE -7.7%. SSYS -6.7%.
Apr. 1, 2014, 9:40 AM
- Nvidia (NVDA +3.4%) has been upgraded to Outperform by JMP. The company made a flurry of product announcements last week.
- InvenSense (INVN -2.2%) has been cut to Market Perform by Oppenheimer. A Galaxy S5 teardown recently turned up a 6-axis InvenSense motion sensor.
- Rubicon (RBCN +10%) has been upgraded to Overweight by JPMorgan.
- JA Solar (JASO +5.2%) has been started at Outperform by Northland.
- Tablueau (DATA +1.4%) has been upgraded to Outperform by Baird.
- Informatica (INFA +4.2%) has been upgraded to Overweight by Barclays.
- MagnaChip (MX -2.5%) has been cut to Neutral by Chardan Capital following Friday's restatement/CFO news. UBS downgraded shares to Sell yesterday.
- Extreme Networks (EXTR +6%) has been started at Buy by Wunderlich. The company recently launched several new software products, as well as 100-gig Ethernet blade for its switches.
- Coupons.com (COUP -2.2%) has received a bullish rating from BofA/Merrill, and neutral ones from Goldman and RBC, on underwriter coverage day.
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