Tue, Nov. 17, 3:28 PM
- SunEdison is down 33% as fears about the solar/wind project developer's balance sheet and cash flow profile continue unabated, and 13F filings indicate many hedge funds pared or liquidated their positions in Q3.
- The Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN -4.8%) has fallen towards $26; the 52-week low (set in September) is $25.25. The Nasdaq and S&P are down modestly.
- Aside from SunEdison and its YieldCos, notable decliners include Canadian Solar (CSIQ -6.7%), SunPower (SPWR -7.5%), Enphase (ENPH -11.1%), SolarEdge (SEDG -7.7%), Daqo (DQ -4.3%), and Sunrun (RUN -4.9%). All but Daqo have strong North American exposure.
- SolarCity (SCTY -7.7%) is also off sharply, though Elon Musk has disclosed fresh purchases over the last few days. JA Solar (JASO -2.6%) is lower in spite of posting a Q3 beat and issuing solid Q4 shipment guidance.
Tue, Nov. 17, 9:53 AM
- After opening higher, JA Solar (JASO -0.6%) has quickly given back the early gains it saw after beating Q3 estimates and guiding for Q4 cell/module shipments of 1.1GW-1.2GW, up from 952.7MW a year earlier.
- Due to strong third-party demand, less than 100MW of modules are now expected to be used in 2015 for JA's downstream projects, down from prior guidance of 150MW. The company plans to respectively up its annual module, cell, and wafer production capacity to 5GW, 5GW, and 1.5GW by mid-2016.
- Shipments: Q3 shipments totaled 1.13GW, +43.5% Y/Y and soundly above guidance of 900MW-950MW. Module shipments were 1.07GW, and cells 53MW. Strong demand from China (53.1% of shipments, up from 34.8% a year ago) fueled the growth. Other Asia-Pac markets accounted for 36.3% of shipments, Europe 7.8%, the Americas 1%, and other markets 1.8%.
- Financials: Lifting EPS: Gross margin rose to 17.7% from Q2's 16.4% and Q3 2014's 15%. Operating expenses rose 43% Y/Y to $59.5M due to higher selling costs. JA ended Q3 with $289.4M in cash, $466M in working capital, $358.2M in short-term borrowings, and $403.5M in long-term borrowings.
- Rising wafer prices "may pressure margins slightly" in Q4. ASPs are expected to remain stable
- Q3 results, PR
Tue, Nov. 10, 11:14 AM
- SunEdison (SUNE -18.9%) has plunged to new multi-year lows after posting mixed Q3 results, cutting its full-year cash available for distribution (CAFD) guidance, and narrowing its full-year project delivery guidance. Canadian Solar (CSIQ -6.5%) has gone south in spite of beating estimates and providing above-consensus Q4 guidance.
- Solar peers are also off - the Guggenheim Solar ETF (NYSEARCA:TAN) is at its lowest levels since early October. U.S. decliners include First Solar (FSLR -6.2%), SolarCity (SCTY -6%), SunPower (SPWR -6.3%), Enphase (ENPH -8.1%), Solar3D (SLTD -4.6%), SunEdison's TerraForm Power (TERP -13.2%) YieldCo, and SunEdison acquisition target Vivint (VSLR -3.9%).
- International decliners include Chinese plays Trina (TSL -5.7%), ReneSola (SOL -7.1%), JinkoSolar (JKS -9.2%), and JA Solar (JASO -5.3%), as well as Israel's SolarEdge (SEDG -6.7%) and SunEdison's emerging markets-focused TerraForm Global (TERP -13.2%) YieldCo.
- “Right now I want the company to become more boring, Boring, and cash-flow generating," said embattled SunEdison CEO Ahmad Chatila on the Q3 earnings call. He reiterated SunEdison expects to build 3.3GW-3.7GW of projects in 2016; the company had once planned to build 4.5GW.
Fri, Oct. 2, 4:03 PM
- Like various other names clobbered in recent weeks as markets went into risk-off mode, solar stocks posted outsized gains today, with the Guggenheim Solar ETF (NYSEARCA:TAN) more than erasing its big Monday losses. A rally in energy stocks (aided by higher crude prices) likely helped out. The Nasdaq rose 1.7%, and the S&P 1.4%.
- SunEdison (SUNE +14.7%), which continues trading at a fraction of its June/July highs thanks to debt/cash flow fears and apparent hedge fund selling, was a standout. SolarCity (SCTY +7.3%), which made a high-efficiency panel announcement earlier today, also fared quite well, as did SunEdison buyout target Vivint (VSLR +10.8%), SunEdison YieldCo TerraForm Power (TERP +12.9%), and fellow North American firms Canadian Solar (CSIQ +12.5%), First Solar (FSLR +6.5%), SunPower (SPWR +5.8%), and Enphase (ENPH +11.4%).
- In addition to Daqo, ReneSola, and Yingli (previously covered), Chinese winners included JinkoSolar (JKS +11.6%), Trina (TSL +6.7%), and JA Solar (JASO +5.7%).
Tue, Aug. 25, 12:34 PM
- The Nasdaq is up 3.4% - a Chinese rate cut is helping - and solar stocks are among the day's standouts. The Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN +7.4%) is now up 14% from a Monday morning low of $25.51, albeit still down 13% from where it traded going into last week.
- Today's gains come after Pres. Obama announced several new incentives meant to boost solar investment. Among them: $1B in additional loan guarantee authority for distributed energy projects, the unlocking of Property-Assessed Clean Energy (PACE) financing for solar installations involving single-family homes, and the creation of a HUD/DOE program to give homeowners "a simple way to measure and improve the energy efficiency of their homes, by increasing homeowners' borrowing power."
- The announcement follows the White House's early-August unveiling of its Clean Power Plan, which aims to cut carbon emissions by 32% by 2030, relative to 2005 levels. Solar still only accounts for less than 1% of U.S. electricity output; renewable sources collectively account for 13%, with hydro responsible for half of the total and wind about a third.
- It also follows the launch of Google's Project Sunroof, which (with the help of satellite imagery) provides would-be home solar installers with advise on installation size and financing options, among other things.
- Major gainers include First Solar (FSLR +8.4%), JinkoSolar (JKS +27.1%), Trina (TSL +17.2%), Canadian Solar (CSIQ +13.2%), SunPower (SPWR +6.6%), JA Solar (JASO +10.6%), China Sunergy (CSUN +12.3%), Yingli (YGE +7.3%), SolarEdge (SEDG +6.9%), and Daqo (DQ +5.9%).
- Cowen has launched coverage on Canadian Solar with an Outperform rating and $28.50 target. Meanwhile, First Solar thin-film module rival TSMC announced today it's shuttering its solar manufacturing ops, while citing a lack of scale/competitiveness.
Wed, Aug. 19, 1:31 PM
- Solar stocks are underperforming (TAN -4%) as both oil and energy stocks post big losses following an unexpected rise in crude inventories, and Canadian Solar (CSIQ -20%) tumbles in the wake of a Q2 beat and light Q3 guidance. The Nasdaq is down 0.7%, and the S&P 0.8%.
- Major decliners include David Einhorn/Stephen Mandel favorite SunEdison (SUNE -7.2%), which has nosedived since posting Q2 numbers on Aug. 6, and is a day removed from pricing a $650M convertible stock offering. Also selling off: Inverter/power optimizer maker SolarEdge (SEDG -9.6%), which tumbled last week in spite of an FQ4 beat and strong FQ1 guidance, and China's Trina (TSL -7.8%), which rose slightly yesterday following a Q2 beat and full-year guidance hike.
- Other casualties include prominent U.S. names First Solar (FSLR -4.7%) and SolarCity (SCTY -3.7%), Chinese plays JinkoSolar (JKS -7.9%) and JA Solar (JASO -3.5%), and SunEdison YieldCos TerraForm Power (TERP -3.2%) and TerraForm Global (GLBL -3.6%).
- Roth's Philip Shen is defending both Canadian and solar YieldCos. "Although yieldcos are no longer in vogue—for now —we fundamentally believe the quality of solar asset cash flows are high and that there is tremendous amount of growth ahead ... [Canadian's] management indicated that its yieldco launch remains on track for a YE'15 or early 2016 launch, and the confidential filing could occur soon ... Hypothetically, if CSIQ were not successful in launching its yieldco, the company would still be able to recycle its capital by selling its assets. Management believes this could drive $1bn of revenue in 2015, and we estimate this could represent ~$2.50 of EPS. "
- Canaccord's Jonathan Dorsheimer: "We continue to believe that Canadian Solar's module business will experience a tightening supply/demand during this bullish end-of-year adoption cycle, which should benefit CSIQ's core operations. Although recent YieldCo and solar volatility have had dramatic valuation impacts, we believe the fundamental PV growth story is still intact."
Tue, Aug. 11, 9:16 AM
Mon, Jul. 27, 12:20 PM
- JinkoSolar (JKS -5.5%), Yingli (YGE -5.9%), and JA Solar (JASO -2.8%) are off after the Shanghai exchange fell 8.5% overnight, reversing a bounce seen in recent weeks as Beijing pulled out all the stops to halt a market crash. The Nasdaq is down 0.9%.
- Many Chinese Internet stocks are having a rougher time.
Thu, Jul. 9, 1:28 PM
- Down sharply yesterday, solar stocks (TAN +5.3%) are among today's standouts after Chinese regulators announced a fresh round of aggressive measures aimed at halting a local market crash. Among them: Investors holding 5%+ stakes aren't allowed to sell shares for six months.
- Like their Web/mobile peers, Chinese solar names are surging: Big gainers include Yingli (YGE +5.3%), Daqo (DQ +7.1%), Trina (TSL +5.6%), JA Solar (JASO +10.1%), China Sunergy (CSUN +12.4%), JinkoSolar (JKS +5.2%), Sky Solar (SKYS +10.7%), and ReneSola (SOL +4.8%).
- Major non-Chinese gainers include Canadian Solar (CSIQ +4.1%), Solar3D (SLTD +11.3%), SolarEdge (SEDG +4.4%), and Vivint (VSLR +7.1%).
- Some news: 1) The U.S. DOC has decided to maintain anti-dumping tariffs on Chinese module imports, while slightly modifying its rates. Yingli says it will now have a 21.7% combined rate, down from a 2012 level of 29.2% and the lowest among peers. 2) SolarEdge has struck a deal with #2 U.S. residential solar installer SunRun (RUN - about to go public) to be SunRun's "preferred supplier of optimized inverter solutions." SolarEdge also sells to SolarCity and Vivint. 3) Sky Solar has obtained an $85M loan to finance a Uruguay solar project.
- Update (1:50PM ET): Yingli is now down 4.9%, thanks to a report stating the company has halted production after talks with creditors broke down.
Tue, Jul. 7, 1:32 PM
- While most major North American solar names are down moderately or trading higher, Chinese firms are seeing heavy losses as a domestic rout in equities continues. Many Chinese Web and mobile stocks are seeing similar drops; margin calls and general panic selling appear to be contributing.
- Major decliners include Trina (TSL -9.1%), Yingli (YGE -10.2%), Daqo (DQ -14.6%), China Sunergy (CSUN -13.8%), JA Solar (JASO -7.7%), JinkoSolar (JKS -7%), and ReneSola (SOL -6.6%).
- Solar ETFs have felt the impact. TAN -2.7%. KWT -4%.
- Yesterday: Solar stocks off sharply after oil plunge, Greek "no" vote, Chinese tech selloff
Mon, Jul. 6, 12:41 PM
- While the demand link continues to be argued, the stock price link remains real: WTI crude is down 5% to $54.10/barrel, and many solar stocks are posting outsized losses on a day the Nasdaq is off 0.4%. The Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN -4.9%) is at its lowest levels since February.
- The selloff comes after Greek voters soundly rejected austerity measures demanded by creditors. It also coincides with major losses for Chinese tech stocks, many of which have already been clobbered over the last month.
- Chinese solar plays JinkoSolar (JKS -5.8%), Daqo (DQ -6.1%), Yingli (YGE -6.5%), and JA Solar (JASO -7.4%) are down sharply. Also seeing large declines: Canadian Solar (CSIQ -4.3%), Sky Solar (SKYS -11.2%), SolarEdge (SEDG -5.9%), Solar3D (SLTD -7.7%), Vivint (VSLR -8%), and Enphase (ENPH -4.2%).
- Last Wednesday: Solar stocks drop as oil falls; Deutsche defends
- Update: Also of interest: Canada's International Trade Tribunal has joined U.S. and EU regulators in placing anti-dumping tariffs on Chinese solar module exports. However, the move was expected, and Canada accounts for a small % of global solar demand. CSIQ has responded to the decision by noting "most of our modules supplied to Canada markets are produced locally."
Fri, Jun. 5, 9:11 AM
Mon, May 18, 2:55 PM
- JA Solar (NASDAQ:JASO) has fallen below $10 after missing Q1 revenue estimates. A better-than-expected gross margin (+60 bps Q/Q and -60 bps Y/Y to 16.1%) allowed EPS to beat; JA attributes the margin strength to lower materials costs and strong sales to high-ASP Japan.
- Q1 cell/module shipments totaled 681.5MW, -28.5% Q/Q (seasonality) and +6.8% Y/Y, and in-line with guidance of 650MW-700MW. Shipments are expected to total 680MW-720MW in Q2; full-year guidance of 3.6GW-4GW (200MW for downstream projects) is maintained, with JA forecasting Chinese and North American demand will improve in 2H15.
- Business performance: Module shipments +50.5% Y/Y to 584.1MW; cell shipments -61.1% to 97.4MW. China accounted for 21.4% of Q1 shipments, other Asia-Pac markets 53.9%, Europe 22.6%, the Americas 1%, and other markets 1.1%.
- Financials: Operating expenses were 9.9% of revenue, up from 9.3% in Q4 and 9.7% in Q1 2014. JA ended Q1 with $306.2M in cash, $325.2M in short-term borrowings, and $365.8M in long-term borrowings.
- Q1 results, PR
Fri, May 8, 4:06 PM
- Solar stocks outperformed today (TAN +2.9%) amid a 1.2% gain for the Nasdaq. The gains arrived after solar power optimizer/inverter maker SolarEdge (SEDG +18.4%) trounced FQ3 estimates and provided equally strong FQ4 guidance in its first post-IPO earnings report. Standouts included Canadian Solar (CSIQ +8.3%), JinkoSolar (JKS +4.5%), ReneSola (SOL +5.6%), JA Solar (JASO +4%), Trina (TSL +4.4%), and Vivint (VSLR +5.3%).
- SolarEdge, which counts SolarCity and Vivint as clients (among others), says it "continued to see strong growth in the United States and Europe both in the residential and commercial markets" in calendar Q1. In a column under embargo until 7:54AM ET Saturday, SA PRO author Casual Analyst argues SolarEdge's offerings have "an architectural edge" against top microinverter maker Enphase. SolarEdge is now up 55% from its $20 March IPO price.
- Canadian's gains come a day after the company (shifting to a business model where it holds/operates solar project assets for a YieldCo instead of selling them) offered light Q2 guidance to go with a Q1 beat.
- Roth defended Canadian today. "The Q2 guide highlights the lack of contribution by the rich pipeline of Canadian historical projects and the weaker economics of the core manufacturing business ... Q2 may represent an 'air pocket' until yieldco details emerge, which will likely highlight the value creation enabled by the new entity."
Tue, Apr. 28, 3:10 PM
- Following years of oversupply, a solar module shortage might emerge in 2H15 thanks to rising demand, Canadian Solar (CSIQ +5.3%) CEO Shawn Qu tells Bloomberg.
- He notes Canadian (relies heavily on Chinese plants) plans to expand its module capacity to 3.5GW from a current 3GW, and its cell capacity by 400MW to as much as 2GW. Bloomberg has forecast global installations will rise to 57.2GW in 2015 from 40GW in 2013.
- Qu also reiterates Canadian's plans to do an IPO a solar project YieldCo, and says it could arrive in 2H15. The YieldCo will contain low-risk U.S., U.K., Canadian, and Japanese projects.
- Chinese module makers Trina (TSL +3.4%), JA Solar (JASO +3.9%), and JinkoSolar (JKS +2.8%) have joined Canadian in rallying on a quiet day for equities. U.S. solar installers SolarCity (SCTY +2.2%) and Vivint (VSLR +2.2%) are also higher, as is solar optimizer/inverter maker (and SolarCity/Vivint supplier) SolarEdge (SEDG +3.9%).
- ETFs: TAN, KWT
Mon, Apr. 13, 12:17 PM
- Chinese solar stocks are among today's standouts after Shanghai rose 2.2% and Hong Kong rose 2.7% overnight, continuing recent rallies. U.S. solar firms are largely missing out on the fun.
- ReneSola (SOL +13%) is today's biggest gainer. Yingli (YGE +6.2%), JA Solar (JASO +3.2%), Trina (TSL +3.4%), Daqo (DQ +2.7%), and China Sunergy (CSUN +5.6%) are also faring well, as is China-exposed Canadian Solar (CSIQ +2.4%).
- An upbeat RBC note could be helping the group: The firm notes there haven't been any Q1 warnings yet - Trina and Yingli warned a year ago - and that Beijing's 17.8GW 2015 installation target is generally seen as reasonable. It adds European and Japanese solar demand remains healthy, and thinks recent gross margin pressures will abate as ASPs stabilize and cost reductions continue.
- RBC sees Trina outperforming its peers "given its capacity expansion plan, strong balance sheet, and downstream business ramp." Earlier today, the company announced a deal to supply 116MW of modules for a 231MW Japanese project.
- Daqo is now up 11% since posting mixed Q4 results and offering an upbeat 2015 outlook on Friday morning.
- Update: Bernstein is also out with a bullish note: The firm expects the solar module market to continue consolidating, and for larger firms to take more share from smaller rivals.
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