Fri, Jul. 1, 3:59 PM
- Gold prices likely will rise in the near to medium term as the market turns to "safe mode,” but a market surplus is expected to drive copper prices lower over the next year or two, Credit Suisse says, also downgrading Southern Copper (SCCO -1.9%) to Underperform from Neutral with a $20 price target, cut from $28.
- Copper prices likely will slip below $2/lb and reach a trough of $1.80/lb by 2018, and will hurt SCCO’s stock valuation, the firm says, even while reaffirming a positive view of the fundamentals behind the stock's investment case.
- Credit Suisse foresees strong copper production at SCCO, with a 5% compound annual growth rate during 2016-21, with the Buenavista expansion expected to be completed by 2017 and Tia Maria ramped up by 2021.
- ETFs: JJC, CPER, CUPM
Tue, Mar. 29, 7:48 AM
- Recent advances aren't rooted in fundamentals, says Barclays analyst Kevin Norrish, in a report titled "Buffalo Jump." The risk, he says, is that the investing herd may very quickly decide to ring the register on recent gains.
- Copper (NYSEARCA:JJC) could fall 20% and oil could drop back to the low $30s.
- “Key commodities markets such as oil and copper already face overhangs of excess production capacity and inventories, but also now face another obstacle in the recovery process, that of positioning, which is now approaching bullish extremes."
- ETFs: DJP, GSG, RJI, GCC, GSP, GSC, CMD, DJCI, LSC, UCI, UCD, CSCB, CSCR
Thu, Mar. 17, 7:17 AM
- That bright green across the screen isn't in honor of St. Patrick's Day. Instead, it's a strong bid for commodities and foreign currencies after the Fed yesterday cut its forecast for rate hikes this year to two from four.
- This just in: Crude oil (NYSEARCA:USO) is up on the year, rising 1.6% today to $40.63.
- Other movers: Gold (NYSEARCA:GLD) +3.25% to $1,270. Silver (NYSEARCA:SLV) +3.4% to $15.74, Copper (NYSEARCA:JJC) +2,5% to $2.29, Platinum (PPLT, PTM) +3% to $988, Lumber (NASDAQ:WOOD) +3.5% to $297, Beans (NYSEARCA:SOYB) +0.6% to $899.50, Corn (NYSEARCA:CORN) +0.5% to $370.25, Wheat (NYSEARCA:WEAT) +0.85% to $475.
- The euro (NYSEARCA:FXE) +1.15%, yen (NYSEARCA:FXY) +1.3%, pound (NYSEARCA:FXB) +0.85%, loonie (NYSEARCA:FXC) +1.15%, aussie (NYSEARCA:FXA) +1.3%, swissie (NYSEARCA:FXF) +1%.
- ETFs: DBC, DJP, GSG, RJI, GCC, USCI, GSP, GSC, CMD, DJCI, DEE, LSC, DYY, FTGC, UCI, DDP, BCM, UCD, COMT, CMDT, DPU, SBV, PDBC, CSCB, CSCR
Wed, Mar. 9, 9:59 AM
- Copper production cuts will not be enough to end a surplus this year and demand will not catch up with supply until 2017, Freeport McMoRan (FCX -1%) senior VP of marketing and sales Javier Targhetta tells Bloomberg.
- ~700K metric tons of supply will have been removed in the year through mid-2016, but new supplies from mines added this year mean a glut will not be completely wiped out in 2016, Targhetta says.
- Copper prices have tumbled in the past three years amid slowing economic growth in China, the metal's biggest consumer; meanwhile, production outpaced demand by ~147K tons in 2015, the biggest surplus since 2009.
- "Long term I am very positive," Targhetta says. "I don’t see any new projects."
- ETFs: JJC, CPER, CUPM
Mon, Feb. 22, 10:33 AM
- Freeport McMoRan (FCX +12.1%) soars ~12% in early trade to lead the S&P 500, as copper futures and other base metals surge.
- The LME’s three-month copper contract was up 1.4% at $4,686/metric ton after hitting a two-week high earlier in the session at $4,701, maintaining its price momentum after closing above $4,600/ton last week for the first time in almost two weeks.
- Positive trading sentiment on copper was upheld by China’s announcement that it will reduce deed and business taxes for home buyers in a bid to speed up home sales and reduce the glut on the property market; weak Chinese property sales have been bad for copper prices, as the sector accounts for most of the demand for the metal.
- Meanwhile, Bloomberg's David Fickling thinks BHP Billiton (BHP +5.9%) ought to buy FCX: BHP's copper output would more than double overnight and control of all three of the world's biggest copper pits - Escondida, Grasberg and Morenci - while a deal also would make sense for FCX, "whose debts are dragging it dangerously close to the plughole."
- ETFs: JJC, DBB, CPER, BOM, RJZ, BOS, JJM, BDD, CUPM
Wed, Feb. 3, 5:33 PM
- Mining companies that have been hit hard by weakening Chinese demand surged the most in five months today, as a rally in metal prices signaled production cuts are starting to pay off, Bloomberg reports.
- Newmont Mining (NEM +11.3%), Freeport McMoRan (FCX +11.2%) and First Quantum Minerals (OTCPK:FQVLF +16.6%) all gained at least 11% today in leading the Bloomberg Americas Mining Index to a 7% surge and its biggest increase since August.
- Gold futures broke above their 200-day MA for the first time since October, and zinc, copper, aluminum, nickel, lead and tin all gained, helped by the outlook for tighter supplies and a plunge in the dollar.
- In today's trade: ABX +8.8%, GG +10.2%, AEM +5.5%, SLW +8.7%, KGC +10.3%, NG +6.6%, AU +9.6%, FNV +7%, GFI +8.5%, HMY +5.1%, SBGL +6.1%, IAG +9.6%, GOLD +3.6%, EGO +8.3%.
- ETFs: GLD, GDX, NUGT, IAU, GGN, DUST, PHYS, SGOL, UGL, GLDX, DGP, GTU, GLL, JJC, UGLD, DZZ, DBB, SGDM, ASA, OUNZ, DGL, DGZ, RING, DGLD, JJN, PSAU, JJU, TGLDX, CPER, UBG, JJT, BOM, RJZ, BOS, FOIL
Tue, Jan. 19, 8:21 AM
- Freeport McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) says the CEO of its Indonesian unit, Maroef Sjamsuddin, has resigned for personal reasons after leading the company for one year.
- Robert Schroeder, a director and VP, will assume Sjamsoeddin’s management responsibilities while the company searches for new leadership.
- Freeport Indonesia has been embroiled in a major political scandal after Maroef reported the government that a top political leader had attempted to extort the company.
- Meanwhile, FCX +5.1% premarket as oil and copper prices rebound following newly released Chinese economic data that was not as bad as feared.
- ETFs: JJC, CPER, CUPM
Fri, Jan. 15, 10:34 AM
- Shares in global mining companies face their biggest back-to-back weekly losses in four years after signs of slowing growth in China, plunging oil prices and asset writedowns at BHP Billiton spark a selloff.
- Copper prices hit a six-year low for the fifth time in a week in London, -1.9%, amid worries about China’s economy, and are now down nearly 9% YTD; aluminum, lead, nickel and zinc all fell more than 1%.
- Long-dated “copper prices adjusted for producer country FX are mostly unchanged, which underscores the macro nature of the recent declines,” according to Goldman Sachs.
- "No lasting price recovery appears possible at present, neither on the metal markets nor on the commodities markets in general," Commerzbank says.
- BHP -7.7%, RIO -6.4%, OTCPK:AAUKF -5.7%, VALE -5.5%, FCX -5.4%, OTCPK:GLCNF -4.4%, TCK -4.3%, SCCO -1.1%.
- ETFs: JJC, DBB, JJN, JJU, CPER, JJT, BOM, RJZ, BOS, FOIL, JJM, LD, BDD, NINI, CUPM, LEDD
Mon, Jan. 11, 8:59 AM
- BHP Billiton (NYSE:BHP) shares sink to decade lows on the Australian Stock Exchange as copper prices plummet to their lowest in six years, after muted Chinese inflation and more equity losses in Shanghai increase concern that demand from the country will slow.
- "China gobbles up about one-half of global demand for anything from aluminum to copper, zinc, tin or coal," says an analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit. "More downward pressure on the price of commodities and on commodity firms’ valuations can be expected.”
- Metals have lost most of the modest gains they made toward the end of last year, with the LME Index falling last week by the the most since May.
- Related tickers: RIO, VALE, FCX, JJC, CPER, CUPM
Dec. 21, 2015, 2:58 PM
- Peru's energy and mines minister says the country's copper output should jump 65% in 2016 to ~2.5M metric tons after the massive Las Bambas project starts operations in February.
- Ongoing talks in communities where protests against Las Bambas turned deadly in September have been positive recently and have not held up the $7.4B project; the mine should produce 250K-300K metric tons of copper in 2016.
- But still-strong local opposition to Southern Copper's (SCCO -1.7%) $1.4B Tia Maria project likely prevent the government from issuing a construction permit for the stalled project, the minister says.
- ETFs: JJC, CPER, CUPM
Dec. 2, 2015, 3:30 PM
- There was a time when the Fed paid attention to commodity signals, and if the central bankers of today listened closely, they would be getting ready to ease policy, not hike rates.
- Among the movers today as Fed speakers all but promise higher interest rates this month are oil - down 4.25% and briefly dipping below $40 per barrel, gold (GLD -1.4%), copper (JJC -1.4%), and natural gas (UNG -2.3%). Every one of the group is at multi-year lows.
- Previously: Yellen sets the stage for rate hike (Dec. 2)
- Previously: Lockhart: Ready to move in December (Dec. 2)
- ETFs: DJP, GSG, RJI, GSP, GSC, DJCI, CMD, UCD
Nov. 23, 2015, 5:28 AM
- Crude continued to drop further on Monday, as part of a wider decline in commodity prices and renewed concerns of oversupply with OPEC likely to ramp up output at its next meeting on Dec. 4.
- "Oil prices may drop to as low as the mid-$20s a barrel unless OPEC takes action to stabilize the market," Venezuelan Oil Minister Eulogio Del Pino declared.
- The slump is also heavily biting into industrial and precious metals: Copper is now below $4,500 a metric ton for the first time since 2009, nickel lost more than 5% to its lowest level since 2003, zinc is down 4.2%, and gold is 0.7% lower at $1069 an ounce.
- Crude futures -3% to $40.63/bbl.
- ETFs: GLD, USO, OIL, IAU, UCO, PHYS, UWTI, SCO, SGOL, BNO, DBO, UGL, DWTI, DGP, GTU, GLL, JJC, DTO, UGLD, DZZ, USL, GLDI, COPX, OUNZ, CU, DGL, DNO, DGZ, DGLD, AGOL, JJN, OLO, SZO, GEUR, CPER, UBG, GYEN, OLEM, NINI, CUPM, QGLDX
Nov. 16, 2015, 10:32 AM
- Knee-jerking sharply higher overnight possibly in response to Friday's terrorist attacks and subsequent reprisals by the French, oil has taken a big turn south in the past couple of hours, now off 1.2% to $40.26 per barrel. The last time crude was below $40 was during the market seizure of late August. Prior to that, one would have to go back to the depths of the global financial crisis in 2009.
- Also turning sharply lower this morning and also returning to lows not seen since 2009 is copper, now down 2.15% on the session to $2.12 per pound.
- Old hands can remember a time when commodity signals meant something to the Fed. If they still do, it's hard to envision the FOMC hiking next month with the price chart of copper (and oil) pointing so steeply down and to the right.
- ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, UWTI, SCO, BNO, DBO, DWTI, JJC, DTO, UGA, USL, DNO, UHN, OLO, SZO, CPER, OLEM, CUPM
Nov. 9, 2015, 6:17 PM
- Copper prices plunged to a six-year low today, dragging down mining company shares, after China's import data showed declining demand from the world's top buyer of the industrial metal.
- China's imports of copper and copper products for the first 10 months of 2015 fell 4.2% Y/Y to 3.82M tons, the government said today; China accounts for ~40% of global copper demand, and the import data highlights long-running concerns that the country's economic slowdown would translate into lower copper imports.
- The fall in copper prices rattled the mining sector, which has been battered by a prolonged slump in metals prices; Glencore (OTCPK:GLCNF, OTCPK:GLNCY), which got 20% of its operating income from copper production in H1 of 2015, fell 5.3% in London, and Freeport McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) ended 2.3% lower.
- ETFs: JJC, CPER, CUPM
Oct. 23, 2015, 9:37 AM
- Commodities including gold, crude oil, and copper rallied in wake of the PBOC's rate cut a couple of hours back, but the gains have proved fleeting, especially for oil which has tumbled 2.2% to $44.39 per barrel.
- Though the major stock market averages have opened with sizable advances, the XLE is on the defensive, down 0.9%.
- Copper (NYSEARCA:JJC) knee-jerked to nearly $2.42 per pound, but has fallen back to $2.37, and gold (NYSEARCA:GLD) has given up its advance and is flat on the session.
- ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, UWTI, SCO, BNO, DBO, DWTI, DTO, UGA, USL, DNO, UHN, OLO, SZO, OLEM, XLE, VDE, ERX, OIH, ERY, DIG, DUG, BGR, IYE, FENY, FIF, PXJ, RYE, FXN, DDG
Oct. 9, 2015, 7:49 AM
- Glencore's (OTCPK:GLCNF, OTCPK:GLNCY) planned cuts to its zinc production sends zinc prices soaring 9% overnight and bringing other base metals including copper along for the ride.
- The move is good news for Glencore's stock price too, with shares up more than 11% in London and more than doubling since reaching a record low last week.
- Glencore's reduced operations in Australia, Kazakhstan and South America will reduce global zinc supply by 500K metric tons/year, not a trivial amount in a 14.5M tons/year global market.
- Zinc has, along with nearly all commodities, been under pressure from oversupply, sliding to a five-year low of $1,601.50/ton on Sept. 28.
- Further destocking of zinc and a more visible recovery in China’s industrial activities will be needed to propel a more sustained price rally, says Xiao Fu, head of commodity markets strategy at BOCI Global Commodities.
- ETFs: JJC, DBB, JJN, JJU, CPER, JJT, BOM, RJZ, BOS, FOIL, JJM, LD, BDD, NINI, CUPM, LEDD, UBM, BDG, HEVY
The Dow Jones-UBS Copper Subindex Total ReturnService Mark is a sub-index of the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index Total ReturnService Mark and reflects the returns that are potentially available through an unleveraged investment in the futures contracts on physical commodities comprising the index plus the rate of interest that could be earned on cash collateral invested in specified Treasury Bills. The index includes the contract in the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index Total ReturnService Mark that relates to a single commodity, copper (currently the Copper High Grade futures contract traded on the COMEX).
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