Mon, Nov. 23, 5:28 AM
- Crude continued to drop further on Monday, as part of a wider decline in commodity prices and renewed concerns of oversupply with OPEC likely to ramp up output at its next meeting on Dec. 4.
- "Oil prices may drop to as low as the mid-$20s a barrel unless OPEC takes action to stabilize the market," Venezuelan Oil Minister Eulogio Del Pino declared.
- The slump is also heavily biting into industrial and precious metals: Copper is now below $4,500 a metric ton for the first time since 2009, nickel lost more than 5% to its lowest level since 2003, zinc is down 4.2%, and gold is 0.7% lower at $1069 an ounce.
- Crude futures -3% to $40.63/bbl.
- ETFs: GLD, USO, OIL, IAU, UCO, PHYS, UWTI, SCO, SGOL, BNO, DBO, UGL, DWTI, DGP, GTU, GLL, JJC, DTO, UGLD, DZZ, USL, GLDI, COPX, OUNZ, CU, DGL, DNO, DGZ, DGLD, AGOL, JJN, OLO, SZO, GEUR, CPER, UBG, GYEN, OLEM, NINI, CUPM, QGLDX
Mon, Nov. 16, 10:32 AM
- Knee-jerking sharply higher overnight possibly in response to Friday's terrorist attacks and subsequent reprisals by the French, oil has taken a big turn south in the past couple of hours, now off 1.2% to $40.26 per barrel. The last time crude was below $40 was during the market seizure of late August. Prior to that, one would have to go back to the depths of the global financial crisis in 2009.
- Also turning sharply lower this morning and also returning to lows not seen since 2009 is copper, now down 2.15% on the session to $2.12 per pound.
- Old hands can remember a time when commodity signals meant something to the Fed. If they still do, it's hard to envision the FOMC hiking next month with the price chart of copper (and oil) pointing so steeply down and to the right.
- ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, UWTI, SCO, BNO, DBO, DWTI, JJC, DTO, UGA, USL, DNO, UHN, OLO, SZO, CPER, OLEM, CUPM
Mon, Nov. 9, 6:17 PM
- Copper prices plunged to a six-year low today, dragging down mining company shares, after China's import data showed declining demand from the world's top buyer of the industrial metal.
- China's imports of copper and copper products for the first 10 months of 2015 fell 4.2% Y/Y to 3.82M tons, the government said today; China accounts for ~40% of global copper demand, and the import data highlights long-running concerns that the country's economic slowdown would translate into lower copper imports.
- The fall in copper prices rattled the mining sector, which has been battered by a prolonged slump in metals prices; Glencore (OTCPK:GLCNF, OTCPK:GLNCY), which got 20% of its operating income from copper production in H1 of 2015, fell 5.3% in London, and Freeport McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) ended 2.3% lower.
- ETFs: JJC, CPER, CUPM
Fri, Oct. 23, 9:37 AM
- Commodities including gold, crude oil, and copper rallied in wake of the PBOC's rate cut a couple of hours back, but the gains have proved fleeting, especially for oil which has tumbled 2.2% to $44.39 per barrel.
- Though the major stock market averages have opened with sizable advances, the XLE is on the defensive, down 0.9%.
- Copper (NYSEARCA:JJC) knee-jerked to nearly $2.42 per pound, but has fallen back to $2.37, and gold (NYSEARCA:GLD) has given up its advance and is flat on the session.
- ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, UWTI, SCO, BNO, DBO, DWTI, DTO, UGA, USL, DNO, UHN, OLO, SZO, OLEM, XLE, VDE, ERX, OIH, ERY, DIG, DUG, BGR, IYE, FENY, FIF, PXJ, RYE, FXN, DDG
Fri, Oct. 9, 7:49 AM
- Glencore's (OTCPK:GLCNF, OTCPK:GLNCY) planned cuts to its zinc production sends zinc prices soaring 9% overnight and bringing other base metals including copper along for the ride.
- The move is good news for Glencore's stock price too, with shares up more than 11% in London and more than doubling since reaching a record low last week.
- Glencore's reduced operations in Australia, Kazakhstan and South America will reduce global zinc supply by 500K metric tons/year, not a trivial amount in a 14.5M tons/year global market.
- Zinc has, along with nearly all commodities, been under pressure from oversupply, sliding to a five-year low of $1,601.50/ton on Sept. 28.
- Further destocking of zinc and a more visible recovery in China’s industrial activities will be needed to propel a more sustained price rally, says Xiao Fu, head of commodity markets strategy at BOCI Global Commodities.
- ETFs: JJC, DBB, JJN, JJU, CPER, JJT, BOM, RJZ, BOS, FOIL, JJM, LD, BDD, NINI, CUPM, LEDD, UBM, BDG, HEVY
Wed, Sep. 30, 11:48 AM
- Copper prices surge as mine disruptions in Latin America and optimism for demand from China bring buyers into the market.
- In Chile, output at the world’s biggest copper mine, Collahuasi, was cut by 30K metric tons/year due to low prices; the mine, owned by Anglo American (OTCPK:AAUKF, OTCPK:AAUKY) and Glencore (OTCPK:GLCNF, OTCPK:GLNCY), accounted for 6% of global production in 2014.
- Meanwhile, Peru declared a state of emergency in the area around the Las Bambas mine after clashes between police and protesters left three people dead.
- But while copper prices tend to rally “any time you hear about disruptions to supply out of a country like Chile, the threat has been very short lived," says a commodities broker with RJO Futures, adding that concerns about the health of the global economy continue to keep a lid on the copper market.
- Relevant tickers: FCX, JJC, CPER, CUPM
Thu, Sep. 17, 4:41 AM
- Copper prices rose to two-month highs in early Asian trading on worries about supply disruptions due to a powerful earthquake off the coast of Chile - the world's largest copper producer.
- The magnitude 8.3 quake shook buildings in the capital Santiago and generated tsunami warnings from New Zealand to California.
- Five people are now known to have died, and one million residents have been evacuated from Chilean coastal areas.
- ETFs: JJC, CH, ECH, COPX, CU, CPER, CUPM
Tue, Sep. 15, 5:57 PM
- Copper bulls hurt by slowing Chinese demand have reason for hope as Citigroup predicts mine disruptions will send the oversupplied market back into deficit next year.
- More than 1.5M metric tons of planned output this year has been lost for reasons ranging from rains and riots in Chile to lack of precipitation in Zambia and Papua New Guinea, Citigroup analysts say.
- Copper mine output this year will total 18.9M tons, with production exceeding demand by 61K tons, in 2015 and a deficit of 284K tons next year, with refined output estimated to rise 1.3%, or less than half the rate in 2015.
- Goldman Sachs, however, projects surpluses through 2019, including a 506K-ton surplus this year and 673K in 2016 amid supply growth and weak Chinese demand.
- Relevant tickers: FCX, OTCPK:GLCNF, OTCPK:GLNCY, JJC, CPER, CUPM
Thu, Sep. 10, 2:32 PM
- It doesn't get as much attention as oil, but copper has quietly rallied 9% off recent lows and broken its downtrend; as an example of copper's strength, Freeport McMoRan (FCX +4.9%) is up 39% since its low close on Aug. 26.
- Copper futures are slightly above yesterday’s seven-week high, as weak China inflation data reinforced views that the government will roll out fresh support measures.
- Copper could be in the midst of a significant upside reversal that is destined to test the upper channel boundary, after traversed from the top of its downward-sloping channel to the bottom before bouncing, MarketWatch's Mike Paulenoff writes.
- Copper has been lifted this week amid news of global production cuts, including Glencore's suspension of operations at two copper mines in a bid to lower operating costs.
- ETFs: JJC, CPER, CUPM
Wed, Sep. 9, 11:19 AM
- Industrial metals continue their recent climb, with aluminum, zinc and lead trying to play catch-up with copper, which has gained 5% this week as more miners mothball operations at loss-making mines.
- Glencore's (OTCPK:GLNCY, OTCPK:GLCNF) Monday announcement that it will cut 400K metric tons of copper production over the next 18 months at two mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia comes in the wake of closures or cutbacks at mines controlled by Freeport McMoRan (FCX +4.3%) and others; shortly after Glencore’s decision, the Chinese operator of the Baluba mine in Zambia said it was suspending operations and cutting jobs.
- The closures follow a high level of production outages across the copper industry this year because of bad weather and labor disputes, with the combined effect helping to tighten the difference between supply and demand.
- ETFs: JJC, DBB, JJN, JJU, CPER, JJT, BOM, RJZ, BOS, FOIL, JJM, LD, BDD, NINI, CUPM, LEDD
Fri, Sep. 4, 10:09 AM
- Stocks are down 1%, but futures were off by that much ahead of the jobs number, and Treasurys, oil, gold, and the dollar haven't moved a whole lot since the mixed report.
- Copper however has quickly tumbled since 8:30 ET, now down 3% to $2.31 per pound - within a few cents of its lowest levels since 2009.
- JJC -2.9%
- Previously: Jobs up 173K in August; UE rate drops to 5.1% (Sept. 4)
- Previously: In total, jobs report probably a sight beat (Sept. 4)
- ETFs: JJC, CPER, CUPM
Thu, Aug. 27, 7:33 AM
- Is the Great Deflation Scare of 2015 over? Yesterday afternoon's melt-up in the U.S. ignited a major global rally in not just stocks, but commodities as well (except for gold of course).
- Leading the way higher is crude oil with a 4.1% gain, or $1.58 per barrel to $40.18. USO +3.05% premarket.
- Copper's (NYSEARCA:JJC) on the move as well, up 1.7% to $2.29 per pound. The red metal had taken out lows going all the way back to 2009 earlier this week.
- ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, UWTI, SCO, BNO, DBO, DWTI, DTO, UGA, USL, DNO, UHN, OLO, SZO, OLEM
Tue, Aug. 11, 11:35 AM
- Commodity metals are getting hammered by China's devaluation, with aluminum trading down nearly 2%, copper prices lower by 2.5% and nickel plunging more than 3.5%.
- Hardest hit of the mining stocks is Freeport McMoRan (FCX -14.1%), which has completely surrendered yesterday's 10.8% surge; shares now are down 72% over the past year and 57% YTD.
- Iron ore miners are sharply lower: BHP -5.5%, RIO -4.2%, VALE -7.8%, CLF -7.3%.
- Steel companies: X -9.7%, MT -5.1%, AKS -5.7%, NUE -2.9%, STLD -3.5%, CMC -4%.
- Also: AA -6%, CENX -4.9%, TCK -8.2%, SCCO -4.9%.
- ETFs: XLB, JJC, XME, SLX, PEO, VAW, COPX, DBB, UYM, CU, IYM, JJN, SMN, JJU, PICK, MATL, CPER, JJT, BOM, RJZ, FXZ, PYZ, BOS, FOIL, JJM, LD, BDD
Tue, Aug. 11, 9:48 AM
- China's surprise devaluation overnight has sparked renewed selling in commodities, a sizable selloff in Europe, and the beginnings of a rough day in equities in the U.S.
- Oil is re-testing its bear market lows, down 1.5% to $43.50 per barrel. Copper (NYSEARCA:JJC) is off 3.2% to $2.32 per pound, and the grains (NYSEARCA:JJG) are lower across the board. Gold (NYSEARCA:GLD) is seeing some interest though, up 0.5% to $1,109.50 per ounce.
- Germany's 2.4% decline is leading Europe lower, and the Dow is off nearly 1% in the early going.
- The 10-year Treasury yield is lower by eight basis points to 2.15%. TLT +1.2%, TBT -2.4%. Checking short-term interest rate futures, they're higher, meaning a smaller chance of Fed rate hikes. The October 2015 Fed Funds contract is up two basis points to $99.76 - pricing in a Fed Funds rate in October roughly 10 basis points higher than it is today.
- ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, IEF, TBF, EDV, TMF, PST, TTT, ZROZ, TLH, SBND, VGLT, IEI, TYO, UBT, DLBS, DTYS, UST, TLO, VGIT, TBX, SCHR, TENZ, GSY, TYD, LBND, ITE, DTYL, DLBL, TYBS, DFVL, FIVZ, VUSTX, TBZ, DFVS, TYNS, SYTL
Fri, Jul. 24, 3:29 AM
- Gold continued its slide on Friday, on course for its biggest weekly loss in nine months, as a breach of key support levels pushed more sellers to cut their exposure.
- Spot gold fell as much as 1.2% to $1,077 an ounce, bringing its losses this week to more than 4%.
- Copper is also feeling the burn amid a rout in commodities and mining stocks. The red metal extended its slide to the lowest price since 2009, heading for a 4.6% drop this week.
- ETFs: GLD, IAU, PHYS, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GTU, GLL, JJC, UGLD, DZZ, GLDI, COPX, OUNZ, CU, DGL, DGZ, DGLD, AGOL, GEUR, CPER, UBG, GYEN, CUPM, QGLDX
Wed, Jul. 22, 12:44 PM
- The number of requests to withdraw copper from London Metal Exchange warehouses relative to the level of global inventories fell this week to the lowest since March 2013, signaling the meltdown sweeping through commodity markets could get even worse.
- Commodity investors see it as a bad omen because copper historically has been used as an indicator for what is to come in raw materials and as a gauge of global expansion.
- "Concerns about copper prices and Chinese demand for copper [are] reason to be worried more generally about demand for industrial metals and a wide variety of other commodities as well," says Natixis head of commodity research Nic Brown.
- Comex copper futures recently -1.7% to $2.433/lb., heading for the biggest loss in two weeks.
- ETFs: JJC, DBB, CPER, BOM, RJZ, BOS, JJM, BDD, CUPM, UBM, BDG, HEVY
The Dow Jones-UBS Copper Subindex Total ReturnService Mark is a sub-index of the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index Total ReturnService Mark and reflects the returns that are potentially available through an unleveraged investment in the futures contracts on physical commodities comprising the index plus the rate of interest that could be earned on cash collateral invested in specified Treasury Bills. The index includes the contract in the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index Total ReturnService Mark that relates to a single commodity, copper (currently the Copper High Grade futures contract traded on the COMEX).
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