Sep. 30, 2015, 11:48 AM
- Copper prices surge as mine disruptions in Latin America and optimism for demand from China bring buyers into the market.
- In Chile, output at the world’s biggest copper mine, Collahuasi, was cut by 30K metric tons/year due to low prices; the mine, owned by Anglo American (OTCPK:AAUKF, OTCPK:AAUKY) and Glencore (OTCPK:GLCNF, OTCPK:GLNCY), accounted for 6% of global production in 2014.
- Meanwhile, Peru declared a state of emergency in the area around the Las Bambas mine after clashes between police and protesters left three people dead.
- But while copper prices tend to rally “any time you hear about disruptions to supply out of a country like Chile, the threat has been very short lived," says a commodities broker with RJO Futures, adding that concerns about the health of the global economy continue to keep a lid on the copper market.
- Relevant tickers: FCX, JJC, CPER, CUPM
Sep. 17, 2015, 4:41 AM
- Copper prices rose to two-month highs in early Asian trading on worries about supply disruptions due to a powerful earthquake off the coast of Chile - the world's largest copper producer.
- The magnitude 8.3 quake shook buildings in the capital Santiago and generated tsunami warnings from New Zealand to California.
- Five people are now known to have died, and one million residents have been evacuated from Chilean coastal areas.
- ETFs: JJC, CH, ECH, COPX, CU, CPER, CUPM
Sep. 15, 2015, 5:57 PM
- Copper bulls hurt by slowing Chinese demand have reason for hope as Citigroup predicts mine disruptions will send the oversupplied market back into deficit next year.
- More than 1.5M metric tons of planned output this year has been lost for reasons ranging from rains and riots in Chile to lack of precipitation in Zambia and Papua New Guinea, Citigroup analysts say.
- Copper mine output this year will total 18.9M tons, with production exceeding demand by 61K tons, in 2015 and a deficit of 284K tons next year, with refined output estimated to rise 1.3%, or less than half the rate in 2015.
- Goldman Sachs, however, projects surpluses through 2019, including a 506K-ton surplus this year and 673K in 2016 amid supply growth and weak Chinese demand.
- Relevant tickers: FCX, OTCPK:GLCNF, OTCPK:GLNCY, JJC, CPER, CUPM
Sep. 10, 2015, 2:32 PM
- It doesn't get as much attention as oil, but copper has quietly rallied 9% off recent lows and broken its downtrend; as an example of copper's strength, Freeport McMoRan (FCX +4.9%) is up 39% since its low close on Aug. 26.
- Copper futures are slightly above yesterday’s seven-week high, as weak China inflation data reinforced views that the government will roll out fresh support measures.
- Copper could be in the midst of a significant upside reversal that is destined to test the upper channel boundary, after traversed from the top of its downward-sloping channel to the bottom before bouncing, MarketWatch's Mike Paulenoff writes.
- Copper has been lifted this week amid news of global production cuts, including Glencore's suspension of operations at two copper mines in a bid to lower operating costs.
- ETFs: JJC, CPER, CUPM
Sep. 9, 2015, 11:19 AM
- Industrial metals continue their recent climb, with aluminum, zinc and lead trying to play catch-up with copper, which has gained 5% this week as more miners mothball operations at loss-making mines.
- Glencore's (OTCPK:GLNCY, OTCPK:GLCNF) Monday announcement that it will cut 400K metric tons of copper production over the next 18 months at two mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia comes in the wake of closures or cutbacks at mines controlled by Freeport McMoRan (FCX +4.3%) and others; shortly after Glencore’s decision, the Chinese operator of the Baluba mine in Zambia said it was suspending operations and cutting jobs.
- The closures follow a high level of production outages across the copper industry this year because of bad weather and labor disputes, with the combined effect helping to tighten the difference between supply and demand.
- ETFs: JJC, DBB, JJN, JJU, CPER, JJT, BOM, RJZ, BOS, FOIL, JJM, LD, BDD, NINI, CUPM, LEDD
Sep. 4, 2015, 10:09 AM
- Stocks are down 1%, but futures were off by that much ahead of the jobs number, and Treasurys, oil, gold, and the dollar haven't moved a whole lot since the mixed report.
- Copper however has quickly tumbled since 8:30 ET, now down 3% to $2.31 per pound - within a few cents of its lowest levels since 2009.
- JJC -2.9%
- Previously: Jobs up 173K in August; UE rate drops to 5.1% (Sept. 4)
- Previously: In total, jobs report probably a sight beat (Sept. 4)
- ETFs: JJC, CPER, CUPM
Aug. 27, 2015, 7:33 AM
- Is the Great Deflation Scare of 2015 over? Yesterday afternoon's melt-up in the U.S. ignited a major global rally in not just stocks, but commodities as well (except for gold of course).
- Leading the way higher is crude oil with a 4.1% gain, or $1.58 per barrel to $40.18. USO +3.05% premarket.
- Copper's (NYSEARCA:JJC) on the move as well, up 1.7% to $2.29 per pound. The red metal had taken out lows going all the way back to 2009 earlier this week.
- ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, UWTI, SCO, BNO, DBO, DWTI, DTO, UGA, USL, DNO, UHN, OLO, SZO, OLEM
Aug. 11, 2015, 11:35 AM
- Commodity metals are getting hammered by China's devaluation, with aluminum trading down nearly 2%, copper prices lower by 2.5% and nickel plunging more than 3.5%.
- Hardest hit of the mining stocks is Freeport McMoRan (FCX -14.1%), which has completely surrendered yesterday's 10.8% surge; shares now are down 72% over the past year and 57% YTD.
- Iron ore miners are sharply lower: BHP -5.5%, RIO -4.2%, VALE -7.8%, CLF -7.3%.
- Steel companies: X -9.7%, MT -5.1%, AKS -5.7%, NUE -2.9%, STLD -3.5%, CMC -4%.
- Also: AA -6%, CENX -4.9%, TCK -8.2%, SCCO -4.9%.
- ETFs: XLB, JJC, XME, SLX, PEO, VAW, COPX, DBB, UYM, CU, IYM, JJN, SMN, JJU, PICK, MATL, CPER, JJT, BOM, RJZ, FXZ, PYZ, BOS, FOIL, JJM, LD, BDD
Aug. 11, 2015, 9:48 AM
- China's surprise devaluation overnight has sparked renewed selling in commodities, a sizable selloff in Europe, and the beginnings of a rough day in equities in the U.S.
- Oil is re-testing its bear market lows, down 1.5% to $43.50 per barrel. Copper (NYSEARCA:JJC) is off 3.2% to $2.32 per pound, and the grains (NYSEARCA:JJG) are lower across the board. Gold (NYSEARCA:GLD) is seeing some interest though, up 0.5% to $1,109.50 per ounce.
- Germany's 2.4% decline is leading Europe lower, and the Dow is off nearly 1% in the early going.
- The 10-year Treasury yield is lower by eight basis points to 2.15%. TLT +1.2%, TBT -2.4%. Checking short-term interest rate futures, they're higher, meaning a smaller chance of Fed rate hikes. The October 2015 Fed Funds contract is up two basis points to $99.76 - pricing in a Fed Funds rate in October roughly 10 basis points higher than it is today.
- ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, IEF, TBF, EDV, TMF, PST, TTT, ZROZ, TLH, SBND, VGLT, IEI, TYO, UBT, DLBS, DTYS, UST, TLO, VGIT, TBX, SCHR, TENZ, GSY, TYD, LBND, ITE, DTYL, DLBL, TYBS, DFVL, FIVZ, VUSTX, TBZ, DFVS, TYNS, SYTL
Jul. 24, 2015, 3:29 AM
- Gold continued its slide on Friday, on course for its biggest weekly loss in nine months, as a breach of key support levels pushed more sellers to cut their exposure.
- Spot gold fell as much as 1.2% to $1,077 an ounce, bringing its losses this week to more than 4%.
- Copper is also feeling the burn amid a rout in commodities and mining stocks. The red metal extended its slide to the lowest price since 2009, heading for a 4.6% drop this week.
- ETFs: GLD, IAU, PHYS, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GTU, GLL, JJC, UGLD, DZZ, GLDI, COPX, OUNZ, CU, DGL, DGZ, DGLD, AGOL, GEUR, CPER, UBG, GYEN, CUPM, QGLDX
Jul. 22, 2015, 12:44 PM
- The number of requests to withdraw copper from London Metal Exchange warehouses relative to the level of global inventories fell this week to the lowest since March 2013, signaling the meltdown sweeping through commodity markets could get even worse.
- Commodity investors see it as a bad omen because copper historically has been used as an indicator for what is to come in raw materials and as a gauge of global expansion.
- "Concerns about copper prices and Chinese demand for copper [are] reason to be worried more generally about demand for industrial metals and a wide variety of other commodities as well," says Natixis head of commodity research Nic Brown.
- Comex copper futures recently -1.7% to $2.433/lb., heading for the biggest loss in two weeks.
- ETFs: JJC, DBB, CPER, BOM, RJZ, BOS, JJM, BDD, CUPM, UBM, BDG, HEVY
Jul. 7, 2015, 10:23 AM
- Freeport McMoRan (FCX -7.3%) is the S&P 500's worst performer in early trading as copper prices retreat to five-month lows.
- Other global miners of copper, iron ore and other metals also are posting sharp losses: VALE -6.1%, BHP -3.8%, RIO -3.9%, SCCO -4.4%, TCK -6.4%.
- China’s stock market swoon is magnifying investor fears about weaker demand from one of the world’s largest consumers of raw materials.
- Overnight, the S&P, Goldman Sachs and the Bloomberg commodity indexes fell the most since November, and analysts say the worst is yet to come.
- "China's demand stumble comes at an awkward time, just when more and more supply of raw materials is coming on stream in many sectors. No quick fix in sight," says HSBC co-head of Asian economic research Frederic Neumann.
- ETFs: JJC, CPER, CUPM
Jul. 6, 2015, 3:58 PM
- Copper prices finished at five-month lows, -3.5% to $2.538/lb., on growing concerns that China’s demand for the industrial metal may continue to falter after a series of stimulus measures taken in the last several months has failed to make a dent in the country’s slowdown.
- "Copper is telling you that there are serious problems in China,” says George Gero, a managing director at RBC Capital.
- Also hurting copper was today's slide in crude oil; big drops in the oil price tend to weigh on copper, as many funds trade the two commodities in a single basket, with a heavier share devoted to oil.
- ETFs: JJC, CPER, CUPM
Jul. 6, 2015, 9:13 AM
- Nymex crude oil futures for August delivery tumble $2.40 (-4.2%) to $54.46/bbl, while ICE Brent crude slides $1.31 (-2.5%) to $58.81/bbl, after Greece overwhelmingly voted against creditors’ conditions for further bailout aid, adding to uncertainty around the country’s eurozone membership.
- "All three possible Greek-related factors - higher risk aversion, a stronger dollar, and a slowdown in the European economy - would be bearish for oil prices,” says Michael Wittner, head of oil research at Société Générale.
- Oil prices also are being pressured by the Iranian nuclear talks expected to conclude this week, which could see heightened Iranian crude exports soon if sanctions are lifted, and Friday's sharp fall in oil prices following the U.S.’s unexpectedly high oil inventory figures and bearish drilling rig count last week.
- The three-week selloff in China’s stock market also has rattled confidence in commodities markets; copper, often watched as a barometer for the broader global economy, -3.6% at $2.539/lb.
- ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, UWTI, SCO, BNO, DBO, DWTI, JJC, DTO, USL, DNO, OLO, SZO, CPER, TWTI, OLEM, CUPM
May 5, 2015, 5:24 PM
- Copper prices have risen to a 2015 high and their highest levels since November, as global demand is seen driving prices.
- A series of stimulus programs from China in recent months has helped convince investors that the world’s largest copper consumer is serious about steadying its economic slowdown; at the same time, disruptions in copper mining and supplies have sparked a belief that the market may end the year with global production and demand nearly balanced, rather than with a supply surplus.
- Glencore (OTCPK:GLCNF, ]]GLNCY]]), the world's no. 3 copper miner, reported its Q1 copper production fell 9% Y/Y, partly due to a planned shutdown for maintenance at its Collahuasi mine in Chile; disruptions at operations owned by BHP Billiton (NYSE:BHP) and Freeport McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) also have fueled speculation that a global surplus will shrink this year.
- ETFs: JJC, DBB, CPER, BOM, RJZ, BOS, BDD, JJM, CUPM
Mar. 13, 2015, 11:01 AM
- The key force in the recent bounce in commodity markets, says Goldman Sachs, has been retailers pouring money into oil ETFs even as commodity fundamentals remain weak, especially as compared with the outlook for stocks.
- "We believe that these inflows are generating selling opportunities in oil and copper precisely because they are at odds with commodity market fundamentals," says Goldman, noting the rapid recent fall in rig count is being offset by rising rig productivity, the backlog of wells, and the possibility of high-grading in the near future.
- "Dissecting commodity sell-offs suggests that later is better," says the team, noting it can take months before consumption fully adjusts to lower prices (i.e., rising enough to offset the inventory build).
- ETFs: USO, XLE, OIL, UCO, ERX, VDE, OIH, SCO, ERY, DIG, JJC, BNO, UGA, DTO, DBO, DUG, IYE, UWTI, USL, FENY, DWTI, PXJ, UHN, DNO, RYE, SZO, FXN, CPER, OLO, DDG, CUPM, TWTI, OLEM
The Dow Jones-UBS Copper Subindex Total ReturnService Mark is a sub-index of the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index Total ReturnService Mark and reflects the returns that are potentially available through an unleveraged investment in the futures contracts on physical commodities comprising the index plus the rate of interest that could be earned on cash collateral invested in specified Treasury Bills. The index includes the contract in the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index Total ReturnService Mark that relates to a single commodity, copper (currently the Copper High Grade futures contract traded on the COMEX).
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