Mon, Nov. 16, 10:32 AM
- Knee-jerking sharply higher overnight possibly in response to Friday's terrorist attacks and subsequent reprisals by the French, oil has taken a big turn south in the past couple of hours, now off 1.2% to $40.26 per barrel. The last time crude was below $40 was during the market seizure of late August. Prior to that, one would have to go back to the depths of the global financial crisis in 2009.
- Also turning sharply lower this morning and also returning to lows not seen since 2009 is copper, now down 2.15% on the session to $2.12 per pound.
- Old hands can remember a time when commodity signals meant something to the Fed. If they still do, it's hard to envision the FOMC hiking next month with the price chart of copper (and oil) pointing so steeply down and to the right.
- ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, UWTI, SCO, BNO, DBO, DWTI, JJC, DTO, UGA, USL, DNO, UHN, OLO, SZO, CPER, OLEM, CUPM
Fri, Oct. 23, 9:37 AM
- Commodities including gold, crude oil, and copper rallied in wake of the PBOC's rate cut a couple of hours back, but the gains have proved fleeting, especially for oil which has tumbled 2.2% to $44.39 per barrel.
- Though the major stock market averages have opened with sizable advances, the XLE is on the defensive, down 0.9%.
- Copper (NYSEARCA:JJC) knee-jerked to nearly $2.42 per pound, but has fallen back to $2.37, and gold (NYSEARCA:GLD) has given up its advance and is flat on the session.
- ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, UWTI, SCO, BNO, DBO, DWTI, DTO, UGA, USL, DNO, UHN, OLO, SZO, OLEM, XLE, VDE, ERX, OIH, ERY, DIG, DUG, BGR, IYE, FENY, FIF, PXJ, RYE, FXN, DDG
Thu, Sep. 10, 2:32 PM
- It doesn't get as much attention as oil, but copper has quietly rallied 9% off recent lows and broken its downtrend; as an example of copper's strength, Freeport McMoRan (FCX +4.9%) is up 39% since its low close on Aug. 26.
- Copper futures are slightly above yesterday’s seven-week high, as weak China inflation data reinforced views that the government will roll out fresh support measures.
- Copper could be in the midst of a significant upside reversal that is destined to test the upper channel boundary, after traversed from the top of its downward-sloping channel to the bottom before bouncing, MarketWatch's Mike Paulenoff writes.
- Copper has been lifted this week amid news of global production cuts, including Glencore's suspension of operations at two copper mines in a bid to lower operating costs.
- ETFs: JJC, CPER, CUPM
Wed, Sep. 9, 11:19 AM
- Industrial metals continue their recent climb, with aluminum, zinc and lead trying to play catch-up with copper, which has gained 5% this week as more miners mothball operations at loss-making mines.
- Glencore's (OTCPK:GLNCY, OTCPK:GLCNF) Monday announcement that it will cut 400K metric tons of copper production over the next 18 months at two mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia comes in the wake of closures or cutbacks at mines controlled by Freeport McMoRan (FCX +4.3%) and others; shortly after Glencore’s decision, the Chinese operator of the Baluba mine in Zambia said it was suspending operations and cutting jobs.
- The closures follow a high level of production outages across the copper industry this year because of bad weather and labor disputes, with the combined effect helping to tighten the difference between supply and demand.
- ETFs: JJC, DBB, JJN, JJU, CPER, JJT, BOM, RJZ, BOS, FOIL, JJM, LD, BDD, NINI, CUPM, LEDD
Fri, Sep. 4, 10:09 AM
- Stocks are down 1%, but futures were off by that much ahead of the jobs number, and Treasurys, oil, gold, and the dollar haven't moved a whole lot since the mixed report.
- Copper however has quickly tumbled since 8:30 ET, now down 3% to $2.31 per pound - within a few cents of its lowest levels since 2009.
- JJC -2.9%
- Previously: Jobs up 173K in August; UE rate drops to 5.1% (Sept. 4)
- Previously: In total, jobs report probably a sight beat (Sept. 4)
- ETFs: JJC, CPER, CUPM
Thu, Aug. 27, 7:33 AM
- Is the Great Deflation Scare of 2015 over? Yesterday afternoon's melt-up in the U.S. ignited a major global rally in not just stocks, but commodities as well (except for gold of course).
- Leading the way higher is crude oil with a 4.1% gain, or $1.58 per barrel to $40.18. USO +3.05% premarket.
- Copper's (NYSEARCA:JJC) on the move as well, up 1.7% to $2.29 per pound. The red metal had taken out lows going all the way back to 2009 earlier this week.
- ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, UWTI, SCO, BNO, DBO, DWTI, DTO, UGA, USL, DNO, UHN, OLO, SZO, OLEM
Tue, Aug. 11, 11:35 AM
- Commodity metals are getting hammered by China's devaluation, with aluminum trading down nearly 2%, copper prices lower by 2.5% and nickel plunging more than 3.5%.
- Hardest hit of the mining stocks is Freeport McMoRan (FCX -14.1%), which has completely surrendered yesterday's 10.8% surge; shares now are down 72% over the past year and 57% YTD.
- Iron ore miners are sharply lower: BHP -5.5%, RIO -4.2%, VALE -7.8%, CLF -7.3%.
- Steel companies: X -9.7%, MT -5.1%, AKS -5.7%, NUE -2.9%, STLD -3.5%, CMC -4%.
- Also: AA -6%, CENX -4.9%, TCK -8.2%, SCCO -4.9%.
- ETFs: XLB, JJC, XME, SLX, PEO, VAW, COPX, DBB, UYM, CU, IYM, JJN, SMN, JJU, PICK, MATL, CPER, JJT, BOM, RJZ, FXZ, PYZ, BOS, FOIL, JJM, LD, BDD
Tue, Aug. 11, 9:48 AM
- China's surprise devaluation overnight has sparked renewed selling in commodities, a sizable selloff in Europe, and the beginnings of a rough day in equities in the U.S.
- Oil is re-testing its bear market lows, down 1.5% to $43.50 per barrel. Copper (NYSEARCA:JJC) is off 3.2% to $2.32 per pound, and the grains (NYSEARCA:JJG) are lower across the board. Gold (NYSEARCA:GLD) is seeing some interest though, up 0.5% to $1,109.50 per ounce.
- Germany's 2.4% decline is leading Europe lower, and the Dow is off nearly 1% in the early going.
- The 10-year Treasury yield is lower by eight basis points to 2.15%. TLT +1.2%, TBT -2.4%. Checking short-term interest rate futures, they're higher, meaning a smaller chance of Fed rate hikes. The October 2015 Fed Funds contract is up two basis points to $99.76 - pricing in a Fed Funds rate in October roughly 10 basis points higher than it is today.
- ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, IEF, TBF, EDV, TMF, PST, TTT, ZROZ, TLH, SBND, VGLT, IEI, TYO, UBT, DLBS, DTYS, UST, TLO, VGIT, TBX, SCHR, TENZ, GSY, TYD, LBND, ITE, DTYL, DLBL, TYBS, DFVL, FIVZ, VUSTX, TBZ, DFVS, TYNS, SYTL
Tue, Jul. 7, 10:23 AM
- Freeport McMoRan (FCX -7.3%) is the S&P 500's worst performer in early trading as copper prices retreat to five-month lows.
- Other global miners of copper, iron ore and other metals also are posting sharp losses: VALE -6.1%, BHP -3.8%, RIO -3.9%, SCCO -4.4%, TCK -6.4%.
- China’s stock market swoon is magnifying investor fears about weaker demand from one of the world’s largest consumers of raw materials.
- Overnight, the S&P, Goldman Sachs and the Bloomberg commodity indexes fell the most since November, and analysts say the worst is yet to come.
- "China's demand stumble comes at an awkward time, just when more and more supply of raw materials is coming on stream in many sectors. No quick fix in sight," says HSBC co-head of Asian economic research Frederic Neumann.
- ETFs: JJC, CPER, CUPM
Mon, Jul. 6, 3:58 PM
- Copper prices finished at five-month lows, -3.5% to $2.538/lb., on growing concerns that China’s demand for the industrial metal may continue to falter after a series of stimulus measures taken in the last several months has failed to make a dent in the country’s slowdown.
- "Copper is telling you that there are serious problems in China,” says George Gero, a managing director at RBC Capital.
- Also hurting copper was today's slide in crude oil; big drops in the oil price tend to weigh on copper, as many funds trade the two commodities in a single basket, with a heavier share devoted to oil.
- ETFs: JJC, CPER, CUPM
Mon, Jul. 6, 9:13 AM
- Nymex crude oil futures for August delivery tumble $2.40 (-4.2%) to $54.46/bbl, while ICE Brent crude slides $1.31 (-2.5%) to $58.81/bbl, after Greece overwhelmingly voted against creditors’ conditions for further bailout aid, adding to uncertainty around the country’s eurozone membership.
- "All three possible Greek-related factors - higher risk aversion, a stronger dollar, and a slowdown in the European economy - would be bearish for oil prices,” says Michael Wittner, head of oil research at Société Générale.
- Oil prices also are being pressured by the Iranian nuclear talks expected to conclude this week, which could see heightened Iranian crude exports soon if sanctions are lifted, and Friday's sharp fall in oil prices following the U.S.’s unexpectedly high oil inventory figures and bearish drilling rig count last week.
- The three-week selloff in China’s stock market also has rattled confidence in commodities markets; copper, often watched as a barometer for the broader global economy, -3.6% at $2.539/lb.
- ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, UWTI, SCO, BNO, DBO, DWTI, JJC, DTO, USL, DNO, OLO, SZO, CPER, TWTI, OLEM, CUPM
Tue, Feb. 3, 10:24 AM
- Copper prices are on track for their biggest gains since September on speculation that China would use stimulus measures to jump-start its economy and boost demand for the metal.
- Rising oil prices and Chinese stimulus speculation “have changed the focus to the upside and the short-covering has done the rest,” says Saxo Bank's Ole Hansen, adding that “energy is such a big and important part of the commodity sector, and the somewhat improved sentiment there also helps other” raw materials; aluminum and nickel also are rising to multi-week highs.
- "We’re in this perverse world where bad news is good news,” says BNP Paribas analyst Stephen Briggs, and "a lot of people are thinking China’s going to join the rest of the world and lower interest rates or [offer] some kind of monetary response."
- Raw materials companies are off to a strong start today: FCX +5.8%, BHP +3.9%, RIO +2.4%, VALE +3.9%, SCCO +3.4%.
- ETFs: JJC, DBB, JJN, JJU, JJT, CPER, BOM, RJZ, BOS, LD, BDD, JJM, FOIL, NINI, CUPM
Mon, Jan. 26, 11:49 AM
- J.P. Morgan cuts its 2015 aluminum and copper forecasts by ~10%, seeing rising production in China this year while demand remains lukewarm, and downgrades Chalco (ACH -1.7%) to Sell from Neutral.
- ACH has been one of the best performing stocks in China’s metals sector, but JPM says the underlying issue remains the company’s high-cost, loss-making assets within an oversupplied aluminum sector.
- With ACH's high debt and negative free cash flow, the firm also believes the likelihood of an equity raising has increased.
- Copper prices are bumping along at five-year lows, reflecting a worsening outlook for the global economy.
- ETFs: JJC, CPER, CUPM
Wed, Jan. 14, 10:28 AM
- Freeport McMoRan (FCX -10.8%) sinks to a 52-week low as copper prices fall 4.5% to collapse to 2009 levels, though it is off overnight lows after prices were down nearly 9% at one point in London.
- Other big global miners also are sharply lower: SCCO -7.3%, RIO -2.5%, BHP -4.4%, VALE -3.8%, CLF -5.8%.
- Concerns over a supply glut and slowing consumption in China have weighed on copper prices in recent months; copper is often seen as an omen for the global economy because it is used in a wide array of construction and manufacturing activities, so today's precipitous drop explains much of the weakness in global equity markets.
- The iPath Dow Jones UBS Copper Subindex Total Return ETN (NYSEARCA:JJC) is trading so heavily that nearly 60% of the average full-day volume traded in the first 10 minutes this morning.
- ETFs: CPER, CUPM, DBB, BOM, RJZ, BOS, BDD, JJM, RGRI, UBM, BDG, USMI, HEVY
Sep. 30, 2014, 12:07 PM
- The early decline in WTI crude oil has accelerated sharply over the past few minutes, and it's now off 3.5% to $91.25 per barrel, about inline with the lowest pricing seen this year. USO -2.9%
- Moving alongside is heating oil (UHN -1.1%) and gasoline (UGA -3.1%).
- Broad energy ETFs: DBE, RJN, JJE, ONG, RGRE, UBN
- Checking other commodities: Silver (NYSEARCA:SLV) is down 3.4%, Copper (NYSEARCA:JJC) is lower by 1.3%, and Wheat (NYSEARCA:WEAT) is off 1.8%.
- Broad commodity ETFs: DBC, DJP, GSG, RJI, GCC, USCI, GSC, GSP, RGRC, DJCI, LSC, FTGC, DEE, UCI, DYY, CMD, BCM, DDP, UCD, CMDT, SBV, DPU, CSCB, CSCR
Mar. 20, 2014, 8:00 AM
- Metals continue to lead the way down in commodities following the FOMC results and Yellen press conference. Unless something happens to change the Fed's mind, QE will end this fall and rate hikes are starting about one year from today.
- Gold -1.4% to $1,322 per ounce - as recently as Monday, the metal was challenging $1,400. Silver -2.6% to $20.28. Copper -2.2% to $2.92 per pound. Platinum -1% to $1,437 per ounce. Palladium -2.1% to $752. WTI crude oil slips another 0.4% to $98.76.
- Gold's retreat over the last couple of sessions has wiped out all of March's gain.
- ETFs: GLD, SLV, AGQ, IAU, PHYS, SIVR, USLV, PPLT, PALL, ZSL, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GLL, DZZ, UGLD, DSLV, DGL, DBS, GLDI, GLTR, PTM, DGZ, SLVO, AGOL, DGLD, DBP, WITE, PGM, TBAR, USV, UBG, JJP, GLDE, GYEN, RGRP, GEUR, GGBP, BLNG, JJC, CPER, CUPM
The Dow Jones-UBS Copper Subindex Total ReturnService Mark is a sub-index of the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index Total ReturnService Mark and reflects the returns that are potentially available through an unleveraged investment in the futures contracts on physical commodities comprising the index plus the rate of interest that could be earned on cash collateral invested in specified Treasury Bills. The index includes the contract in the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index Total ReturnService Mark that relates to a single commodity, copper (currently the Copper High Grade futures contract traded on the COMEX).
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