JO
iPath Dow Jones-UBS Coffee ETNNYSEARCA
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  • Thu, Sep. 29, 10:02 AM
    • It's National Coffee Day in the U.S., but it's weather in Brazil and Vietnam that is the focus of the coffee industry.
    • Drought conditions and crop disease concerns have pushed prices higher and created some short-term supply constraints.
    • Indexmundi.com shows robusta coffee prices are up 18% YTD and mild arabicas prices are 16% higher.
    • Higher commodity prices can hit packaged coffee sellers harder than chains selling fresh coffee, although hedging activity also plays a larger factor in how individual companies shake out.
    • On a consumer level, don't expect any relief at Starbucks on their base coffee prices ($1.85 tall, $2.10 grande, $2.45 venti) anytime soon.
    • Related tickers: SBUX, DNKN, SJM, QSR, MCD, MDLZ, KKD, WWAV, JVA, OTCQB:JAMN, OTCQB:BCCI, FARM, OTCPK:NSRGY.
    • ETFs: JO, CAFE.
    | Thu, Sep. 29, 10:02 AM | 21 Comments
  • Wed, Sep. 14, 11:22 AM
    • Data from NPD Group indicates that 11% of millennials use craft coffee brewing to satisfy their daily coffee cravings.
    • It's a trend to watch with younger consumers representing 44% of at-home craft coffee brewers of which a third live in urban areas.
    • It's not clear if the increase in at-home craft coffee consumption is peeling away meaningful packaged coffee sales or store traffic to chains, but there could be a reputational risk to national brands on quality in the future.
    • Related tickers: SBUX, DNKN, SJM, QSR, MCD, MDLZ, KKD, WWAV, JVA, OTCQB:JAMN, OTCQB:BCCI, FARM, OTCPK:NSRGY.
    • ETFs: JO, CAFE.
    | Wed, Sep. 14, 11:22 AM | 18 Comments
  • Wed, Jun. 22, 7:23 AM
  • Wed, Jun. 15, 10:45 AM
    | Wed, Jun. 15, 10:45 AM | 22 Comments
  • Wed, Jun. 15, 2:26 AM
    • Twenty-five years after classifying coffee as a possible carcinogen leading to bladder cancer, the World Health Organization has reversed course, and is expected to say today that coffee isn't classifiable as a carcinogen.
    • WHO is also likely to state coffee has no carcinogenic effects related to other cancers and has even been seen to reduce the risk of liver and uterine cancers.
    • Related tickers: SBUX, DNKN, SJM, QSR, MCD, MDLZ, KKD, WWAV, JVA, OTCQB:JAMN, OTCQB:BCCI, FARM, OTCPK:NSRGY
    • ETFs: JO, CAFE
    | Wed, Jun. 15, 2:26 AM | 33 Comments
  • Tue, May 24, 5:04 AM
    | Tue, May 24, 5:04 AM | 11 Comments
  • Dec. 29, 2015, 5:28 PM
    • Coffee prices continue to fall as strong El Nino rains in Brazil help to boost crop yields. The next harvest in the nation is forecast to be up 20% Y/Y at 58M bags.
    • Even with Arabica prices down 28% this year, analysts see another swing lower for coffee in 2016 due to the oversupply situation.
    • Weak currencies in South America are also providing a strong incentive to local producers to sell as much as they can.
    • The trend toward low coffee prices is helping to lift margins for many coffee sellers with U.S. retail prices only down 4% to 5% this year. Companies light on hedging positions are seeing the biggest benefit.
    • Most execs play coy over the bottom line benefit of lower coffee commodity prices, but even Starbucks CFO Scott Maw had to concede that pricing looked a "little bit favorable" during the firm's last earnings call (transcript).
    • Coffee futures chart
    • Related stocks and ETFs: KHC, GMCR, DNKN, OTCPK:RBGLY, OTCPK:RBGPF, SBUX, OTCQB:JAMN, SJM, MCD, JO, CAFE, THS, KKD, OTCPK:NSRGY, OTCPK:NSRGF.
    | Dec. 29, 2015, 5:28 PM | 22 Comments
  • Dec. 9, 2015, 3:15 AM
    • The steady drip of additions to JAB Holding's coffee empire, most recently Keurig Green Mountain, is threatening to leave a bitter taste for traders who supply its growing network of roasters with beans.
    • After being purchased by JAB, many roasters have increased their net financing terms to 120 days or more, up from an industry standard of 30 days, meaning that middlemen have to wait at least four months before being paid.
    • Such a move poses problems and gives importers a choice between paying more in interest payments on the additional credit, or losing the roaster as a customer.
    • ETFs: JO, CAFE
    | Dec. 9, 2015, 3:15 AM | 2 Comments
  • May 14, 2015, 11:05 AM
    • The National Weather Service forecasts a continuation of El Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean late into the year.
    • The outlook is consistent with a recent statement from across the ocean by the Japanese Meteorological Agency.
    • In the past, El Nino conditions have contributed to drought conditions in Central and South America to impact coffee costs for sellers.
    • Related stocks: GMCR, SBUX, JVA, SJM, KRFT, DNKN, OTCQB:JAMN.
    • Related ETFs: JO
    • El Nino Advisory (.pdf)
    | May 14, 2015, 11:05 AM | 24 Comments
  • Mar. 2, 2015, 2:34 PM
    • Coffee prices are in retreat as extended rain in Brazil and increased production capacity has helped to soothe the market and push up forecasts on output.
    • Data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission indicates a sharp drop in bullish bets on coffee as experts now ease off some previous concerns on supply vs. demand.
    • Arabica prices are still higher than where they were a year ago.
    • There could be a lag factor for many companies to see a benefit from lower coffee commodity costs. Starbucks tipped off during its FQ1 earnings call (transcript) it has 94% of its 2015 coffee needs already priced.
    • Arabica coffee price chart
    • Related stocks: GMCR, SBUX, JVA, SJM, KRFT, DNKN
    • Related ETFs: JO
    | Mar. 2, 2015, 2:34 PM | 1 Comment
  • Feb. 18, 2015, 4:02 PM
    • The International Coffee Organization expects global coffee demand to rise 25% by 2021.
    • Expectations for rising demand in China, India, and Latin America is partially behind the strong forecast.
    • The coffee market is under pressure currently from tight supply due to crop difficulties in Brazil.
    • A sharp drop in the real has counterbalanced the supply shortage to a degree.
    • Related stocks: GMCR, SBUX, JVA, SJM, KRFT, DNKN
    • Related ETFs: JO
    | Feb. 18, 2015, 4:02 PM | 14 Comments
  • Oct. 2, 2014, 1:10 PM
    • Arabica coffee futures reached a five-month high as a prolonged drought in Brazil now appears likely to impact next year's crop as well as this year's.
    • Coffee watcher ICO estimates a 10M production bag deficit could result due to the weak crop amid an environment of rising global demand.
    • Arabica coffee chart
    • Related stocks: GMCR, SBUX, JVA, SJM, KRFT, DNKN
    • Related ETFs: JO
    | Oct. 2, 2014, 1:10 PM
  • Aug. 26, 2014, 3:57 PM
    • Brazil coffee production could end up down 18% Y/Y when the harvest ends next month. A severe drought in the nation has destroyed a large swath of crops.
    • The shortfall in the nation is included in a forecast from Citigroup that calls for a global coffee deficit which could last until 2016 and pressure prices.
    • Related stocks: GMCR, SBUX, JVA, SJM, KRFT, DNKN
    • Related ETFs: JO
    | Aug. 26, 2014, 3:57 PM | 1 Comment
  • Aug. 4, 2014, 2:19 PM
    • Strong local demand from coffee-producing nations Brazil, Vietnam, and Colombia could help keep coffee prices elevated this year.
    • Overall coffee demand is expected to hit a record this year due in part to rising incomes.
    • Though the upsurge in demand is primarily for the lower-priced bean varities, there is also a slow global shift in mix toward the higher-priced Arabica beans under way.
    • Starbucks (SBUX +0.6%), Dunkin Brands (DNKN +0.3%), Kraft Foods Group (KRFT -0.3%), and J.M. Smucker (SJM +0.1%) have all increased prices on coffee this year.
    • Related ETF: JO
    | Aug. 4, 2014, 2:19 PM | 4 Comments
  • Jul. 8, 2014, 9:12 AM
    • Coffee prices continue to retreat from their highs as improved weather in Brazil and strong output in India pushes up estimates on global output for the robusta and arabica varieties.
    • Many coffee sellers have already lifted retail prices (KRFT, SBUX, SJM, DNKN) and could see a benefit if their purchasing contracts get locked-in at lower levels.
    • Related ETFs: JO
    | Jul. 8, 2014, 9:12 AM | 3 Comments
  • Jun. 17, 2014, 6:57 AM
    • Coffee output in India is forecast to rise after suffering a setback last year.
    • Higher production from the region could increase global supply to pressure prices after a drought in Brazil has had major impact on the coffee market.
    • Prices on bagged coffee has been increased by a wave of companies including J.M. Smucker and Kraft Foods.
    • Wholesale coffee prices still have a big wildcard in the mix with the emergence of El Nino.
    • Related stocks: SJM, KRFT, THI, SBUX, GMCR, MCD, JVA, KRFT, DNKN.
    • Related ETF: JO
    | Jun. 17, 2014, 6:57 AM | 6 Comments
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