Mon, May 11, 8:23 AM
- Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) has been upgraded at Baird on the belief that the stock may have bottomed as the worst of the mining and commodity deflation cycle appears to have passed.
- Analyst Mig Dobre raised his rating to outperform from neutral, and boosted his stock price target to $101 from $80.
- Dobre feels the decline in commodity prices over the last several years has been on par with the 1980's bust, and that anything worse would resemble the cycle seen during the Great Depression, which would be unlikely given the significant stimulus from central banks around the world.
- Caterpillar's stock has underperformed the S&P 500 in each of the past four years through 2014, although it has never underperformed the broader market for five-straight years.
- Dobre also upgraded Joy Global (NYSE:JOY) to outperform from neutral, and raised the stock price target to $62 from $45.
- CAT +0.8%, JOY +0.8% premarket
Thu, Mar. 5, 9:15 AM
Mon, Mar. 2, 8:44 AM
- BofA/Merrill has downgraded Joy Global (NYSE:JOY) to Neutral from Buy given challenging end markets, and cut its price on the stock to $47 from $55.
- The firm expects consensus estimates to continue to move lower based on the weaker start to the year, deteriorating order trends, and foreign currency headwinds.
- JOY -1.9% premarket
Tue, Feb. 10, 3:14 PM
- Jim Chanos' dislike of Caterpillar (CAT -0.8%) stock is well known (I, II) but Axiom Capital's Gordon Johnson wishes that "someone please tell Jim Chanos that Joy Global (JOY -2%) is worse off than Caterpillar."
- With ~65% of JOY’s sales linked to the sale of equipment for coal mining (with a heavy weighting to the U.S. coal market) vs. less than half this amount for CAT (exacerbated by CAT’s far less direct exposure to the U.S. market), the analyst thinks JOY’s fundamentals stand to suffer significantly more than CAT as several headwinds come to fruition over the next year.
- Given a once-in-a-decade correction lower in commodity prices, Johnson firmly believes the next 12 months will bring far more than the typical downward seasonality for JOY, as he reiterates his Sell rating and $28 stock price target.
Tue, Jan. 27, 3:58 PM
- Cummins (CMI -3.8%) is downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at First Global despite delivering a respectable performance for the final nine months of 2014.
- CMI’s industrial engines are highly exposed to the construction and mining industries which are being impacted by weak capital spending in China and other emerging markets, the firm says; also, demand in the Chinese and Brazilian truck markets remains weak.
- At 13.9x estimated CY 2015 earnings, CMI shares already trade at a moderate premium to peers such as Caterpillar, First Global adds.
- CMI and other equipment manufacturers are broadly lower following Caterpillar's (CAT -7.2%) disappointing quarter: JOY -5.3%, MTW -5.1%, DE -2.7%, CNHI -1.9%.
Mon, Jan. 12, 9:42 AM
- Following a downgrade to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital, Joy Global (JOY -3.5%) is extending last week's drop.
- The firm lowered it PT on the stock to $52 from $67, stating that current challenges facing the mining sector will continue to weigh on the company's results and investor sentiment.
Nov. 21, 2014, 9:49 AM
- Caterpillar (CAT +3.5%) jumps at the open after China makes a surprise interest rate cut and the stock is initiated with a Buy rating and a $122 price target at Stifel,
- Stifel says CAT's cycles have two acts and sees a back-half recovery this cycle with a North American focus; the firm also believes seasonal tailwinds, a rebound in commodities on global GDP optimism, and prolonged easy Fed policy should favor CAT shares.
- The firm anticipates a North American heavy construction cycle, as well as oil and gas, as the catalysts for a late cycle recovery to fill the void that mining has left.
- JOY also +3.5%.
Oct. 27, 2014, 12:24 PM
- Caterpillar (CAT -1.5%) climbed 4.6% last week after its Q3 earnings easily beat Wall Street consensus, but Raymond James analyst Theoni Pilarinos thinks this is not the time for investors to chase the stock.
- CAT deserves credit for right-sizing inventory, bringing production levels in-line with demand, maintaining a solid balance sheet and generating strong cash flow funding $5.4B YTD in share buyback and dividends, but management's forecast for flat 2015 sales growth prompts the firm to lower its numbers accordingly, and Pilarinos believes the stock will be range-bound until end markets improve.
- AMong other big machinery makers: JOY -3.4%, MTW -1.7%, DE -0.8%.
Sep. 19, 2014, 2:28 PM
- Caterpillar (CAT -1.7%) says worldwide machinery sales by its dealers fell 10% for the three-month period ended in August, marked by a 29% plunge in Latin America sales; global sales had dropped 9% in the May-July period and 10% in April-June.
- North America was the only region where sales were up in the latest rolling period as sales rose 8%, but that was down from 11% growth in July and a 14% rise in June.
- CAT's worldwide mining equipment sales fell 33% Y/Y, while construction equipment sales fell 1%; a 12% sales increase in its North America construction division was offset by a 23% drop in Latin America and a 10% decline in Asia/Pacific.
- The lone bright spot was a 4% sales increase in its energy and transportation equipment division.
- Mining equipment peers also are weak in today's trade: JOY -2%, MTW -3.7%, TEX -1%.
Sep. 4, 2014, 7:18 AM
- Net income of $71.3M, or $0.71 per share vs. $183.2M, or $1.71 per share, a year earlier.
- Net sales fell 34% Y/Y to $876M, from $1.3B in the same period a year ago.
- Bookings climbed 33% to $923M vs. $695.4M a year earlier.
- Based on a downgraded production profile for U.S. coal and the current geopolitical circumstances in Eastern Europe and Russia, the company is tightening its revenue and earnings guidance for the year.
- Fiscal 2014 revenue is now expected to be in the range of $3.65B to $3.75B compared with previous guidance of $3.6B to $3.8B.
- Full year earnings are estimated to be in the range of $3.15-$3.30 per diluted share vs. previous guidance of $3.10-$3.50 per share.
- FQ3 results
- JOY -2.7% premarket.
Jul. 16, 2014, 5:39 PM
Jul. 16, 2014, 12:22 PM
- Joy Global (JOY +6.7%) shares hit new 52-week highs, apparently on speculation that the world's leading maker of underground mining equipment is a takeover target.
- Joy also may be gaining on a forecast from air compressor maker Atlas Copco (OTCPK:ATLKY, OTCPK:ATLCF) for improved demand in the coming months as investment in mining equipment stabilizes.
Jun. 5, 2014, 3:59 PM
- Joy Global (JOY +6.7%) powers to its highs of the day after reporting FQ2 earnings that reflected the global mining equipment slowdown but topped low expectations and backing its FY 2014 guidance.
- JOY said in its earnings conference call that its deal with Mining Technologies will add to its underground hard rock mining growth prospects.
- Joy also sees growth in the oil sands market, particularly in Canada, which it said represents the largest unconventional source of oil production over the next 20 years.
- Global mining peers also are higher: CAT +2.6%, VALE +1%, BHP +0.7%, RIO +0.7%.
Mar. 24, 2014, 4:44 PM
- Manitowoc (MTW) has been among the top-performing U.S. machinery stocks this year, but today it was one of the worst, -5.2% after a Jefferies downgrade due to valuation.
- The firm says its channel checks and conversations with industry participants continue support its belief that cranes - lattice-boom cranes, tower cranes, mobile telescopic cranes, boom trucks - will be a 2015 story.
- MTW shares trade at an EV/sales multiple of 137% and an EV/EBITDA multiple of 11.1x on 2014 estimates, significant premiums to the closest competitor (Terex: 80% EV/sales, 8.0x EV/EBITDA).
- YTD: MTW +32.3%, CAT +6.6%, TEX +2.3%, JOY -2.9%, DE -3.1%.
Jan. 27, 2014, 12:14 PM
- Caterpillar managed to burn the shorts with Q4 results today - with big expense cuts and a new $10B buyback program - but other global growth bellwethers are having none of it. Joy Global (JOY -0.8%) and Cummins (CMI -1.3%) have given back early gains to turn solidly lower and Deere (DE +0.1%) is barely hanging on.
- "Despite our expectation that mine production will continue to increase, we expect mining companies to further reduce their capital expenditures in 2014 ... we're expecting sales in resource industries to decline modestly."
Jan. 3, 2014, 11:58 AM
- More on Joy Global's (JOY -1.5%) downgrade to Sell at Goldman Sachs: The firm sees "significant commodity and equipment over-supply driving medium-term growth headwinds," and expects mining capex budgets will remain under pressure longer than the stock is discounting today, trading at a 30%-40% premium to machinery peers on 2014-15 P/E.
- Other global machinery makers are showing minimal movement: CAT -0.1%, EXP +0.8%, GVA +0.2%, DE +0.4%.
JOY vs. ETF Alternatives
Joy Global Inc is a manufacturer and servicer of productivity mining equipment for the extraction of coal and other minerals and ores. It manufactures and markets original equipment and parts and perform services for both underground and surface mining.
Other News & PR