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Mon, Jan. 25, 11:50 AM
- "Texas is in good shape," says D.R. Horton (DHI -3.5%) CEO David Auld, speaking on the earnings call (reported by Diana Olick). "We have a positive tone because we're seeing positive things out there in the market." Auld also takes note of DHI's cheaper "Express" brand, which he says is driving market share gains.
- The stock is lower despite an earnings beat, with investors perhaps focusing on slowing price gains (sales orders up 9%, dollar amount up 12%).
- Other names: Hovnanian (HOV -4.6%), Toll Brothers (TOL -3.4%), Lennar (LEN -3.4%), PulteGroup (PHM -3.1%), KB Home (KBH -3.8%).
- ETFs: ITB, XHB
Thu, Jan. 7, 3:17 PM
- KB Home (KBH -12.8%) attempted to bounce following a sharply lower open on the back of an earnings miss, but has fallen to new session lows. Among snippets from the earnings call:
- The company sees FQ1 (ends Feb. 29) homebuilding revenue of $600M-$660M vs. consensus of $700M. Gross margin of 16%.
- Low price points in Houston are moving, but high-end housing has hit a wall.
- The company is beginning to see "boomerang" buyers - those who were foreclosed on post-crisis, but are back buying again.
- Previously: KB Home modestly lower after earnings miss (Jan. 7)
- ETFs: ITB -3.8%, XHB -3.1%
Thu, Jan. 7, 9:15 AM
- Gainers: INVT +35%. DVAX +27%. QURE +14%. HMY +9%.
- Losers: TLOG -75%. EPZM -20%. GALE -19%. FINL -17%. SUNE -14%. AKBA -11%. RLYP -8%. FRO -8%. OTIC -8%. CIG -7%. SYN -7%. ATNM -7%. JKS -7%. KBH -7%. SAGE -7%. CEMP -7%. DNR -6%. ATML -6%. WLL -6%. SDRL -6%. ADMS -6%. BHP -6%. BBL -5%. AEZS -5%. VALE -5%. GGB -5%.
Thu, Jan. 7, 7:23 AM
- FQ4 (ending Nov. 30) pretax income of $69.9M up from $28.6M a year ago.
- Deliveries of 2,580 homes up 16% Y/Y. ASP of $379.8K up 8%.
- Adjusted housing gross profit margin of 12.2% down 50 basis points from a year ago.
- Backlogs of 3,966 homes up 36% from a year ago; dollar value of $1.28B up 40%.
- Net orders of 1,882 homes up 10%; dollar value of $675.8M up 15%.
- Management takes note of inclement weather and trade shortages as impacting results in the quarter.
- Earnings call at 11:30 ET
- Previously: KB Home misses by $0.07, misses on revenue (Jan. 7)
- KBH -1.6% premarket on very light volume.
Dec. 16, 2015, 9:50 AM
- The seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of housing starts in November of 1.173M was up 10.5% from October and 16.5% from a year ago. Single-family starts of 768K gained 7.6% from October.
- Building permits of 1.289M gained 11% M/M and 19.5% Y/Y. SIngle-family permits of 723K gained just 1.1% from last month.
- The South was a particular area of strength, with housing starts in that region of 615K up from 507K in October. SIngle-family starts there of 409K gained from 376K.
- The major average are up modestly, but the ITB is ahead 1.5%, and XHB +1.25%.
- Individual names: Toll Brothers (TOL +1.8%), Lennar (LEN +1.7%), Pulte (PHM +1.5%), KB Home (KBH +0.9%), D.R. Horton (DHI +1.6%), Hovnanian (HOV -1.8%)
Nov. 11, 2015, 12:31 PM
- Yesterday's earnings beat and big move higher from D.R. Horton (NYSE:DHI) spread through the entire sector, and today is seeing plenty of follow-through, with DHI up another 3.2%.
- Reporting on the UBS conference today, the WSJ's Kris Hudson says Toll Brothers CEO Doug Yearly sounds coy about the upcoming spring selling period, telling attendees he's not pessimistic, but doesn't yet see an impetus pointing to a great season.
- Of supposed slowing of international buying on the West Coast: "We haven't yet personally seen any negative impact."
- ITB +1.75%, XHB +0.9%
- Hovnanian (HOV +5.6%), PulteGroup (PHM +1.3%), Lennar (LEN +2.3%), KB Home (KBH +2.5%), Beazer (BZH +5.9%)
- Previously: More on D.R. Horton's FQ4 beat (Nov. 10)
Nov. 10, 2015, 12:15 PM
- D.R. Horton is up 6.8% after cruising through FQ4 estimates, with orders, backlogs, and closings all up smartly, but prices up only modestly. Pre-tax margin gained 60 basis points to 10.7%, and the company boosted its quarterly dividend by two pennies to $0.08 per share (1% yield).
- Bears might note the beat was helped along by a $17.5M benefit from the company's DTA, but the bulls control the tape today.
- With the major averages in the red, the homebuilder ETF is up sharply, ITB +1.4%. More focused on industry suppliers, the XHB is up 0.4%.
- Toll Brothers (TOL +1.7%), PulteGroup (PHM +2.4%), Lennar (LEN +1.5%), Ryland (RYL), KB Home (KBH +2.3%), Hovnanian (HOV -0.8%).
- Previously: More on D.R. Horton's FQ4 beat (Nov. 10)
- Previously: D. R. Horton beats by $0.02, beats on revenue (Nov. 10)
Oct. 26, 2015, 10:11 AM
- The pace of new home sales tumbled to a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 468K in September. That's down 11.5% from August's 529K (revised down from 552K), and just 2% above the level of a year ago. Analysts had expected a 550K pace in September.
- The Northeast suffered an unusually large decline, with sales dropping to 13K from 34K ... must have been the weather. Sales in the Midwest fell to 55K from 60K; South to 274K from 300K; West to 126K from 135K.
- Maybe a bigger issue are prices: The median price of 296.9K was 13.5% higher than a year ago.
- The homebuilders aren't liking the news: Toll Brothers (TOL -2%), Lennar (LEN -1.6%), Hovnanian (HOV -1.8%), KB Home (KBH -2.2%), D.R. Horton (DHI -2.5%), PulteGroup (PHM -1.4%)
- ITB -1.6%, XHB -0.7%
- Full report
- Previously: New Home Sales hits 10-month low at 468K (Oct. 26)
Oct. 22, 2015, 12:03 PM
- The major averages are up 1.5%, and a strong existing home sales number this morning added to a beat in housing starts earlier this week, but the homebuilders are retreating.
- At work are weaker-than-hoped reports from PulteGroup (PHM -6.4%) and M/I Homes (MHO -5.7%).
- Pulte reported a decline in closings, with ASPs up just a hair vs. the 8% gain in sales prices a year ago. Home sales in Texas slumped 15%, and while net new orders for the company overall rose 8%, they fell 5% in that state.
- KB Home (KBH -4.3%), Toll Brothers (TOL -1%), Lennar (LEN -0.6%), Hovnanian (HOV +1.6%), D.R. Horton (DHI -1.2%)
- ETFs: ITB, XHB
- Previously: Sale price gains slow down at Pulte (Oct. 22)
- Previously: M/I Homes misses by $0.04, misses on revenue (Oct. 22)
Oct. 13, 2015, 9:51 AM
- Upgraded to Overweight is Toll Brothers (TOL -0.1%), and upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight is KB Home (KBH +0.5%). The TOL price target of $44 is nearly 20% above last night's close.
- Downgraded to Under Weight is Pulte Group (PHM -2.3%), with the price target cut to $18 from $22 (current price is $19.64).
- Checking relative performance, Toll Brothers is up 8.4% YTD, while Pulte is down 8.4% and KBHome is down 10.2%.
Sep. 24, 2015, 10:15 AM
- SIngle-family new home sales in August at a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 552K were up 5.7% from July (itself upwardly revised to 522K from 505K). August's pace was also up 21.6% from a year ago.
- By region, Northeast sales of 36K rose from 29K, Midwest to 60K vs. 66K, South 319K from 297K, and West 137K vs. 130K.
- Despite the strong August results, homebuilders remain lower alongside the broader market.
- Leading the way lower is KB Home (KBH -3.4%) which reported an earnings beat this morning, but rising land costs did eat into profit margins.
- ETFs: ITB, XHB
- Toll Brothers (TOL -0.4%), PulteGroup (PHM -0.8%), Lennar (LEN -0.9%), D.R. Horton (DHI -0.8%), Standard Pacific (SPF -1.6%), Taylor Morrison (TMHC -1.5%).
Sep. 24, 2015, 8:44 AM
- FQ3 (ended Aug. 31) deliveries of 2,236 homes up 25% Y/Y. ASP of $357.2K up 9%.
- Adjusted housing gross profit margin of 21.1% down 160 basis points Y/Y.
- Backlogs of 4,664 homes up 36% from a year ago; backlog value of $1.59B up 44%.
- Net orders of 2,167 up 19% Y/Y; value of $773.3M up 23%. Cancellation rate as a percentage of gross orders of 30% about flat.
- Overall average community count of 257 vs. 197 a year ago.
- "We are anticipating a strong finish to the year ... we expect to maintain this momentum into 2016."
- Conference call at 11:30 ET
- Previously: KB Home beats by $0.01, beats on revenue (Sept. 24)
- KBH +1% premarket
Sep. 17, 2015, 3:49 PM
- Outperforming alongside the big dividend payers are the homebuilders after the FOMC refrained from hiking rates today, but still all but promises tighter policy before the year is out. The big gains in homebuilders are in contrast to the S&P 500 which is flat.
- The inaction has sparked a major rally in bonds across the curve, with the 10-year yield lower by ten basis points to 2.20% and the two-year yield down a full twelve basis points to 0.68%.
- Earlier today, August housing starts disappointed, and July starts were revised sharply lower.
- Previously: August housing starts disappoint; July revised sharply lower (Sept. 17)
- Toll Brothers (TOL +1.2%), Lennar (LEN +1.5%), Hovnanian (HOV +6%), PulteGroup (PHM +1.1%), Ryland (RYL +2.1%), D.R. Horton (DHI +2%), KB Home (KBH +2%)
- ETFs: ITB, XHB
Aug. 17, 2015, 4:33 PM
- Major stock indexes rebounded from opening declines to finish modestly higher, after a solid housing report showed some strength on a lightly traded Monday.
- Homebuilding stocks paced gainers, including Toll Brothers (TOL +2.3%); Ryland (RYL +2.1%); KB Home (KBH +3.1%), Lennar (LEN +2.7%) and Taylor Morrison Home (TMHC +2.9%).
- The S&P 500 gained 0.5% to 2,102.44; for 2015, it's up 2.12%. The move up came despite a grim reading from New York manufacturing that sent bond yields lower. TLT +0.5%; TBT -0.8%.
- Volumes overall were about 20% below recent average.
- Sector gains were broadly distributed, with a flat energy sector as the laggard. Healthcare stocks performed well, paced by dollar volume leaders Gilead Sciences (GILD +0.7%), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ +1.1%) and Biogen (NASDAQ:BIIB) +1.1%.
Jul. 22, 2015, 10:36 AM
- In the latest data point signaling the housing recovery has shifted into another gear, the NAR earlier reported a 3.2% gain in the seasonally adjusted annualized rate of existing home sales to 5.49M in June.
- Sales are at their highest pace since February 2007 and are 9.6% above the pace of one year ago.
- The median price of $236.4K is up 6.5% Y/Y and surpasses the peak set in July 2006.
- ETFs: ITB +1.5%, XHB +1.5%
- Toll Brothers (TOL +2%), Lennar (LEN +1.7%), KB Home (KBH +1.9%), Pulte (PHM +2.1%), D.R. Horton (DHI +2.1%), Hovnanian (HOV +0.9%), Ryland (RYL +3.1%)
- Previously: Existing home sales rise to fastest pace in eight years (July 22)
Jun. 24, 2015, 9:47 AM
- Lennar is up 4.5% after blowing through estimates, including posting gross and operating margins ahead of previous guidance.
- ITB +1.3%, XHB +0.7%
- Toll Brothers (TOL +1.7%), Ryland (RYL +0.7%), KB Home (KBH +1.5%), Pulte (PHM +2%), D.R. Horton (DHI +1.7%), Hovnanian (HOV +1.5%), Beazer (BZH +1.6%).
- Previously: Lennar in high cotton in FQ2, up 4.7% post-earnings (June 24)
- Previously: Lennar beats by $0.15, beats on revenue (June 24)
KB Home is engaged in the construction and sell of homes. The Company's offers a variety of new homes designed for first-time, move-up and active adult homebuyers, including attached and detached single-family residential homes.
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