Yesterday, 12:10 PM
- November monthly performance was: +5.24%
- 52-week performance vs. the S&P 500 is: +5%
- No dividends were paid in November
- Top 10 Holdings as of 11/30/2016: NVIDIA Corp (NVDA): 0.29628%, Freeport-McMoRan Inc (FCX): 0.28589%, KeyCorp (KEY): 0.27006%, Comerica Inc (CMA): 0.26528%, Regions Financial Corp (RF): 0.26347%, Lincoln National Corp (LNC): 0.26105%, Harman International Industries Inc (HAR): 0.2585%, Citizens Financial Group Inc (CFG): 0.25834%, Bank of America Corporation (BAC): 0.25666%, Quanta Services Inc (PWR): 0.25473%
Mon, Dec. 5, 5:42 PM
Mon, Dec. 5, 12:40 PM
- The FRBNY's William Dudley isn't concerned about the post-election jump in rates at the long end of the curve, and says the Fed is about to start following suit at the short end.
- Even the dovish Charles Evans from the Chicago Fed admits inflation is getting closer to the central bank's target, and the labor market is close to full employment.
- The 10-year Treasury yield had moved as high as 2.45%, but has pulled back to 2.40%, still up 1.5 basis points on the session.
- On the regulatory front, Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo on Friday set himself up as the chief defender of the current bank regulatory regime, but whether his voice will be heard is a different story given the incoming administration, which looks to be staffed with those favoring a far lighter regulatory hand.
- Financial sector stocks today are about doubling the S&P 500's 0.5% advance.
- TBTF banks: Bank of America (BAC +2.3%), Citigroup (C +1.8%), JPMorgan (JPM +1.3%), Wells Fargo (WFC +0.9%), Goldman Sachs (GS +1.7%), Morgan Stanley (MS +0.4%)
- Regional lenders: U.S. Bancorp (USB +0.7%), PNC Financial (PNC +0.4%), KeyCorp (KEY -0.8%), Fifth Third (FITB +0.5%)
- Insurers: MetLife (MET +0.3%), Lincoln National (LNC), AIG (AIG +0.2%)
- Brokerage: Schwab (SCHW +0.9%), E*Trade (ETFC +0.9%)
- Custodial banks: State Street (STT +0.5%), Northern Trust (NTRS +1%)
- Private equity: Blackstone (BX +0.9%), KKR (KKR +1%)
- Asset Management: BlackRock (BLK +0.1%), Franklin Resources (BEN +0.5%), Affiliated Managers (AMG +1.8%)
Wed, Nov. 30, 11:45 AM
- While the pick of ex-Goldmanite and Hollywood player Steven Mnuchin for Treasury Secretary can hardly be called "draining the swamp," Pantheon's Ian Shepherdson says it should make Wall Street happy.
- In his first public comments after being selected, Mnuchin promised to "kill" swaths of Dodd-Frank.
- Also making Wall Street (and other bankers/insurers/brokers) happy today is another big move higher in interest rates, with the 10-year Treasury yield up 10 basis points to 2.394%.
- The S&P 500 is just marginally higher, but the KBE is ahead 1.9%, and the KRE 2%. XLF +1.35%
- Bank of America (BAC +3.4%), Citigroup (C +1.9%), JPMorgan (JPM +1.5%), Wells Fargo (WFC +1.8%), Morgan Stanley (MS +2.1%), Goldman Sachs (GS +3.9%), U.S. Bancorp (USB +1%), PNC Financial (PNC +1.4%), KeyCorp (KEY +2.2%), Fifth Third (FITB +2.5%), Regions Financial (RF +2.9%), BB&T (BBT +2.4%), SunTrust (STI +2%)
- MetLife (MET +2%), AIG (AIG +0.8%), Lincoln National (LNC +1.7%), Prudential (PRU +1.1%), Hartford (HIG +1.3%)
- ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, UYG, VFH, IYF, BTO, IYG, FNCL, SEF, FXO, RYF, FINU, RWW, XLFS, FINZ, JHMF, FAZZ, FNCF
Tue, Nov. 29, 3:11 PM
- More confidence that rates are rising for real this time, "wide-sweeping" regulatory changes to come, and a better FICC environment have analyst Brian Kleinhanzi upgrading Bank of America (BAC) and Goldman Sachs (GS +0.9%) to Outperform from Market Perform.
- Kleinhanzi keeps JPMorgan (JPM +0.8%) and Bank of New York (BK +0.2%) at Outperform.
- Turning to regional banks, KBW boosts its estimates for 2017 and 2018 for the large players, and upgrades Citizens Financial (CFG +1.9%) and Comerica (CMA +1.6%) to Outperform, while downgrading KeyCorp (KEY +0.3%) and PNC (PNC -0.2%) to Market Perform. The switch comes as KBW turns its focus on those lenders best positioned for a rising rate environment, and from regulatory relief, not to mention other levers should rates not rise.
- Source: Bloomberg
Thu, Nov. 17, 4:32 PM
Wed, Nov. 16, 7:17 AM
- The SPDR KBW Bank ETF (NYSEARCA:KBE) is now up 18.9% YTD - this after a miserable start to 2016. Since February 11, the fund is higher by 46%. Since July 1, it's up 32%, and since the election 15%.
- With bullish price targets being hit and surpassed across the sector, the downgrades are pouring in.
- Among them, U.S. Bancorp sees its 2nd downgrade in two days. Others: Fifth Third (NASDAQ:FITB), First Republic (NYSE:FRC), Citizens Financial (NYSE:CFG), Capital One (NYSE:COF), Zions Bancorp (NASDAQ:ZION), KeyCorp (NYSE:KEY), Webster Financial (NYSE:WBS), NBT Bancorp (NASDAQ:NBTB), Sterling Bancorp (NYSE:STL), First Connecticut (NASDAQ:FBNK), Regions Financial (NYSE:RF)
Mon, Nov. 14, 11:33 AM
- The major averages are stuck in the red, but the XLF is up 2.2% and the KBE +3% as financial sector investors mull a world of higher interest rates and lowered regulation.
- REITs continue to fall, but thanks to this fall's sector reclassification, those names are no longer in the financial indexes.
- Regional banks: Regions Financial (RF +6.9%), New York Community (NYCB +2.9%), KeyCorp (KEY +3.1%), PNC Financial (PNC +2.4%), Fifth Third (FITB +4%), SunTrust (STI +3%), M&T (MTB +3.1%)
- Insurers: MetLife (MET +2.2%), Lincoln (LNC +3.2%), AIG (AIG +2.1%), Hartford (HIG +2.3%), Travelers (TRV +1.4%)
- Online brokerage: Schwab (SCHW +3.6%), Ameritrade (AMTD +2.5%)
- Asset management: Franklin Resources (BEN +3.2%), Och-Ziff (OZM +4.5%), Invesco (IVZ +2.2%), T. Rowe Price (TROW +2.8%), BlackRock (BLK +0.4%)
Tue, Nov. 8, 8:50 AM
- It's been a big run for the banks, but Citigroup is ready to take profits, citing the pricing in of higher rates, and the risk that the U.S. election doesn't turn out as expected.
- Analyst Keith Horowitz downgrades Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), KeyCorp (NYSE:KEY), and Citizens Financial (NYSE:CFG) to Neutral from Buy.
Sat, Nov. 5, 5:10 PM
- Brian Belski, chief investment strategist at BMO Capital Markets, says investors too often focus on "yield alone." Instead, he says they should look for companies with proven track records of steady payout growth.
- In a recent screen he developed, he looked for companies that had no dividend cuts in each of the past five completed fiscal years, and filetered for stocks with yields higher than that of the S&P 500 (~2.2%); payout ratios below the market's 50.4% level; FCF yields that exceed their dividend yields; and one-year dividend-per-share growth better than the S&P 500's median of 7.7%.
- Names it turned up include Amgen (NASDAQ:AMGN), Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO), Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG), Home Depot (NYSE:HD), Illinois Tool Works (NYSE:ITW), KeyCorp (NYSE:KEY), Motorola Solutions (NYSE:MSI), and Texas Instruments (NYSE:TXN).
- Source: Barron's
Tue, Oct. 25, 8:33 AM
- Excluding merger-related charges, Q3 EPS of $0.30 compared to $0.27 earned in Q2 and $0.26 in Q3 of one year ago.
- Revenue was up 6% during quarter, excluding the impact of the First Niagara purchase.
- Net interest income (excl. FNFG) of $619M up 2.3% Q/Q, up 3.5% Y/Y.
- Noninterest income (excl. FNFG) of $508M up 7.4% Q/Q, up 8.1% Y/Y. Investment banking and debt placement fees of $156M (a record) up 43% Y/Y.
- Noninterest expense (excl. FNFG) of $753M up 6.7% Q/Q, up 4% Y/Y.
- Provisions of $59M up from $52M in Q2 and $45M a year ago, and includes $12M from the FNFG purchase. Loan charge-offs as a percent of total loans of 0.23%, down from 0.28% in Q2 and 0.27% a year ago.
- CET1 ratio of 9.55% vs. 10.47% a year ago.
- Previously: KeyCorp beats by $0.04, beats on revenue (Oct. 25)
- KEY +3.05% premarket
Tue, Oct. 25, 6:33 AM
Mon, Oct. 24, 5:30 PM
- ABG, AGR, AKS, ASTE, ATI, AXE, BAX, BHI, BPOP, CAT, CIT, CNC, CPLA, CTG, CVLT, CYNO, DD, EAT, EDU, ETR, FBC, FBP, FCAU, FCX, FELE, GBX, GLW, GM, GPK, HUBB, IIVI, JBLU, JNS, KEY, KKR, LLY, LMT, LPT, MAS, MDSO, MINI, MMC, MMM, MRK, NCI, NLSN, NVS, PCAR, PG, PII, PNR, R, RTIX, S, SAVE, SCHN, SERV, SHW, SIR, ST, STAY, TNC, UA, USG, UTX, VLO, WAB, WAT, WDR, WHR, WSO
Fri, Oct. 14, 9:42 AM
- JPMorgan and Citigroup both easily topped estimates thanks to a big rebound in previously-in-the-doldrums markets revenue. JPM is higher by 1%, and Citi by 2%. The read-through is pushing Goldman Sachs (GS +3%), Morgan Stanley (MS +2.7%) and Bank of America (BAC +2.4%) all nicely higher.
- Less capital-markets focused, Wells Fargo also beat forecasts, but not as soundly. As usual of late, it's lagging its TBTF peers, up just 0.3%.
- XLF +1.2%, KRE +1.4%, KBE +1.5%.
- Other individual names: Regions Financial (RF +2.5%), Huntington Bancshares (HBAN +2.1%), KeyCorp (KEY +1.9%), Fifth Third (FITB +1.5%), SunTrust (STI +1.3%), M&T (MTB +1.7%)
Tue, Oct. 4, 2:19 PM
- A Bloomberg report says the ECB is likely to gradually wind down bond purchases ahead of the scheduled March 2017 end of its QE program. The central bank is currently buying €80B per month of government and corporate paper, and may begin to slow that amount by €10B per month, according to the story.
- Yields are higher in Europe and the U.S., with the 10-year U.S. Treasury up five basis points to 1.675% and the German 10-year Bund yield is up four bps to -0.048%. TLT -1.1%, TBT +2.2%
- Though the Dow and S&P 500 are each lower by 0.5%, the yield-starved XLF is up 0.6%, with Bank of America (BAC +2.1%), Citigroup (C +1.9%), and JPMorgan (JPM +0.4%) leading the way. Shrouded in scandal, Wells Fargo (WFC -0.2%) continues to underperform.
- Other names: Regions Financial (RF +1.5%), KeyCorp (KEY +2.1%), BB&T (BBT +1.4%), Schwab (SCHW +1.5%), MetLife (MET +1.1%), Prudential (PRU +1.3%).
- ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, KRE, UYG, VFH, KBE, IYF, BTO, IAT, IYG, FNCL, SEF, FXO, KBWB, QABA, KBWR, RYF, FINU, KRU, RWW, XLFS, FINZ, KRS, JHMF, WDRW, DPST, FAZZ, FNCF
Wed, Sep. 28, 9:32 AM
- "Large banks are going to be forced to take on more capital," says Dick Bove. "It will make the cost of funding more, not less, expensive. It will reduce the appeal for investors to put money at risk in the banking system."
- Bove is commenting on a weekend announcement from Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo promising future stress tests will be geared to demanding even higher cash buffers for banks. Set to take effect next year, the new rule could raise capital requirements for the largest banks by 3 or 4 percentage points, writes Jeff Cox at CNBC.
- Interested parties: BAC, C, WFC, JPM, GS, MS
- There's good news though, as those lenders with less than $250B in assets won't be subject to the same standards. FBR's Edward Mills calls it a "significant positive" for regionals, which now have more certainly on the process, reduced regulatory expenses, and thus the ability to return more capital to owners.
- Interested parties: RF, ZION, CMA, KEY, FITB, STI, NYCB, HBAN, PNC, BBT, MTB
- ETFs: KRE, KBE, IAT, KBWB, QABA, KBWR, KRU, PSCF, KRS, WDRW, DPST