Fri, Oct. 14, 9:42 AM
- JPMorgan and Citigroup both easily topped estimates thanks to a big rebound in previously-in-the-doldrums markets revenue. JPM is higher by 1%, and Citi by 2%. The read-through is pushing Goldman Sachs (GS +3%), Morgan Stanley (MS +2.7%) and Bank of America (BAC +2.4%) all nicely higher.
- Less capital-markets focused, Wells Fargo also beat forecasts, but not as soundly. As usual of late, it's lagging its TBTF peers, up just 0.3%.
- XLF +1.2%, KRE +1.4%, KBE +1.5%.
- Other individual names: Regions Financial (RF +2.5%), Huntington Bancshares (HBAN +2.1%), KeyCorp (KEY +1.9%), Fifth Third (FITB +1.5%), SunTrust (STI +1.3%), M&T (MTB +1.7%)
Tue, Oct. 4, 2:19 PM
- A Bloomberg report says the ECB is likely to gradually wind down bond purchases ahead of the scheduled March 2017 end of its QE program. The central bank is currently buying €80B per month of government and corporate paper, and may begin to slow that amount by €10B per month, according to the story.
- Yields are higher in Europe and the U.S., with the 10-year U.S. Treasury up five basis points to 1.675% and the German 10-year Bund yield is up four bps to -0.048%. TLT -1.1%, TBT +2.2%
- Though the Dow and S&P 500 are each lower by 0.5%, the yield-starved XLF is up 0.6%, with Bank of America (BAC +2.1%), Citigroup (C +1.9%), and JPMorgan (JPM +0.4%) leading the way. Shrouded in scandal, Wells Fargo (WFC -0.2%) continues to underperform.
- Other names: Regions Financial (RF +1.5%), KeyCorp (KEY +2.1%), BB&T (BBT +1.4%), Schwab (SCHW +1.5%), MetLife (MET +1.1%), Prudential (PRU +1.3%).
- ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, KRE, UYG, VFH, KBE, IYF, BTO, IAT, IYG, FNCL, SEF, FXO, KBWB, QABA, KBWR, RYF, FINU, KRU, RWW, XLFS, FINZ, KRS, JHMF, WDRW, DPST, FAZZ, FNCF
Wed, Sep. 28, 9:32 AM
- "Large banks are going to be forced to take on more capital," says Dick Bove. "It will make the cost of funding more, not less, expensive. It will reduce the appeal for investors to put money at risk in the banking system."
- Bove is commenting on a weekend announcement from Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo promising future stress tests will be geared to demanding even higher cash buffers for banks. Set to take effect next year, the new rule could raise capital requirements for the largest banks by 3 or 4 percentage points, writes Jeff Cox at CNBC.
- Interested parties: BAC, C, WFC, JPM, GS, MS
- There's good news though, as those lenders with less than $250B in assets won't be subject to the same standards. FBR's Edward Mills calls it a "significant positive" for regionals, which now have more certainly on the process, reduced regulatory expenses, and thus the ability to return more capital to owners.
- Interested parties: RF, ZION, CMA, KEY, FITB, STI, NYCB, HBAN, PNC, BBT, MTB
- ETFs: KRE, KBE, IAT, KBWB, QABA, KBWR, KRU, PSCF, KRS, WDRW, DPST
Mon, Sep. 26, 11:37 AM
- The S&P 500 is lower by 0.65%, but the XLF is down nearly double that amount, with Deutsche Bank lower by 7% on capital worries and interest rates sliding to a three-week low.
- At 1.59% on the 10-year Treasury, the yield curve in the space of a few sessions has erased all of its post-Labor Day steepening, and yield-starved players are in retreat.
- Regions Financial (RF -1.9%), KeyCorp (KEY -1.7%), SunTrust (STI -1.9%), Fifth Third (FITB -1.6%), MetLife (MET -1.6%), Lincoln National (LNC -1.3%).
- ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, UYG, VFH, IYF, BTO, IYG, FNCL, SEF, FXO, RYF, FINU, RWW, XLFS, FINZ, JHMF, FAZZ, FNCF
Mon, Aug. 29, 7:27 AM
- Expectations are too high headed into the "noisy" second half of the year, says Piper Jaffray analyst Kevin Barker, cutting KeyCorp (NYSE:KEY) to Neutral from Overweight.
- Shares will have a difficult time outperforming as estimates move down in coming months, he adds.
- The new price target of $13 is down from $14.50, and compares to last week's close of $12.32.
Tue, Jul. 26, 7:53 AM
- Q2 EPS, excluding merger-related expenses, of $0.27 vs. $0.24 in Q1 and $0.27 one year ago. Book value of $13.08 vs. $12.79 three months ago, and $12.21 a year ago.
- First Niagara acquisition still expects to close on or about August 1.
- Net interest income of $605M down 1.1% Q/Q, up 2.4% Y/Y. NIM of 2.76% down 13 bps on the quarter, down 12 bps for the year.
- Noninterest income of $473M up 9.7% Q/Q, down 3.1% Y/Y. Investment banking and debt placement fees of $98M down 30.5% Y/Y. Service charges on deposits of $68M up 7.9%.
- Noninterest expense (excl. merger-related) of $706M up 4% Q/Q, down 0.7% Y/Y. Personnel expense of $427M up 5.7% Q/Q, up 4.7% Y/Y.
- Previously: KeyCorp EPS and revenue in-line (July 26)
- KEY flat premarket
Tue, Jul. 26, 6:32 AM
Mon, Jul. 25, 5:30 PM
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Wed, Jul. 13, 5:43 PM
Tue, Jul. 12, 7:37 PM
- After nine months, the Fed has given approval to KeyCorp's (KEY +2.2%) purchase of First Niagara Financial Group (FNFG +1.9%).
- KeyCorp now expects to close the deal Aug. 1 following a formal OK from the U.S. Comptroller of the Currency.
- The move will transform Western New York banking, making KeyCorp that region's No. 2 retail bank, behind only M&T Bank.
- KeyCorp has confirmed it plans to lay off no more than 250 people, and to retain all branch employees. It will close 106 retail branches, including 23 in Western New York.
- The deal had to clear a regulatory hurdle as the Justice Dept. looked into minority lending practices at First Niagara.
Mon, Jul. 11, 3:40 PM
- While nearly all major U.S. banks cruised through the stress tests last month, writes David Schawel, those exams are about determining if lenders have enough capital to get through a crisis, not whether they can earn the sort of risk-adjusted returns of the past.
- On this front (for insurers as well as banks), there's plenty more for investors to worry about, he says, thanks to the vanishing spread between short rates (what the companies pay on their liabilities), and long rates (what they earn on their assets).
- A new Fed study finds the adverse effect of weaker net interest margins is materially larger when rates are low. The reason: The lower bound of funding costs is zero as institutions are reticent to charge negative rates.
- Investors interested in buying banks or insurers because of seemingly cheap valuations might want to look again. Bank multiples, says Schawel, typically move alongside ROE, and serious improvement in ROE is unlikely with rates remaining low.
- Interested parties include: BAC, C, JPM, WFC, MET, PRU, LNC, PNC, USB, RF, KEY, KRE, KBE
Mon, Jul. 11, 8:10 AM
Thu, Jun. 30, 8:19 AM
Mon, Jun. 27, 10:16 AM
- No financial name will be immune to the downside from rates lower for longer post-Brexit, says Ken Usdin, but KeyCorp (KEY -3.8%) could fare better than peers. The lender, he says, is less needful of higher rates, less sensitive to the energy sector, and has the positive catalyst of the First Niagara purchase (expected to close in Q3). He reiterates a Buy rating and $14.50 price target (vs. current $10.58).
- Ken Usdin ranks #922 out of #3,980 analysts on TipRanks.
- The price action in Signature Bank (SBNY -3.1%) looks overdone, says Casey Haire, thanks to bank's attractive relative valuation, weak asset sensitivity profile and strong organic loan prospects. He maintains a Buy rating and $162 price target (vs. current $118).
- Also overdone is the action is Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL -3.4%), he says, noting the bank has been planning for a lower for longer rate policy. He maintains a Buy and $42 PT (vs. current $30.41).
- Casey Haire ranks #133 on TipRanks.
Fri, Jun. 24, 11:58 AM
- The Too Big To Fail lenders are naturally among the day's big losers following the U.K. vote to leave the EU, but losses in the financial sector are wide and deep as - among other things - interest rates look to be a lot lower for a lot longer.
- Among asset managers, Invesco (IVZ -10.8%) - with a sizable U.K. exposure - is faring about the worst. WisdomTree (WETF -7.8%) takes a hit as the yen is the solo currency surging against the dollar, reducing demand for its popular hedged Japan ETF.
- It's wait till next year (or even 2018 if you believe short-term rate futures markets) for rate hikes, meaning regional lenders can't celebrate their passing of the Fed stress tests last night. Regions (RF -7.8%), KeyCorp (KEY -6.4%), PNC Financial (PNC -5.5%), U.S. Bancorp (USB -4.2%), BB&T (BBT -5.1%).
- Even lower rates put even more pressure on the business models of the life insurers: MetLife (MET -8.8%), Prudential (PRU -7.7%), Lincoln National (LNC -9.9%), Voya (VOYA -7%). Online brokers too: E*Trade (ETFC -9.4%), Schwab (SCHW -9.5%).
- ETFs: KRE, KBE, IAT, KBWB, QABA, KBWR, KRU, KRS, WDRW, DPST
Thu, Jun. 23, 4:51 PM
- Ally Financial (NYSE:ALLY): Actual end of 2015 CET1 ratio of 9.2%, Q1 2018 CET1 ratio under severely adverse scenario of 6.1%, minimum 6.1%.
- American Express (NYSE:AXP): Actual 12.4%, Q1 2018 12.3%, minimum 11.4%.
- Bank of America (NYSE:BAC): Actual 11.6%, Q1 2018 8.1%, minimum 8.1%.
- BNY Mellon (NYSE:BK): Actual 11.5%, Q1 2018 11.2%; minimum 10.5%.
- BB&T (NYSE:BBT): 10.3%, 6.9%, 6.9%
- BBVA Compass (NYSE:BBVA): 10.7%, 6.5%, 6.5%.
- BMO Financial (NYSE:BMO): 11.9%, 5.9%, 5.9%.
- Capital One (NYSE:COF): 11.1%, 8.2%, 8.2%.
- Citigroup (NYSE:C): 15.3%, 9.2%, 9.2%.
- Citizens Financial (NYSE:CFG): 11.7%, 8.8%, 8.8%.
- Comerica (NYSE:CMA): 10.5%, 8.3%, 8.3%.
- Discover (NYSE:DFS): 13.9%, 12.4%, 11.9%.
- Fifth Third (NASDAQ:FITB): 9.8%, 6.8%, 6.8%.
- Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS): 13.6%, 10.2%, 8.4%.
- HSBC N.A. (NYSE:HSBC): 15.7%, 9.1%, 9.1%.
- Huntington Bancshares (NASDAQ:HBAN): 9.8%, 5%, 5%.
- JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM): 12%, 8.3%, 8.3%.
- KeyCorp (NYSE:KEY): 10.9%, 6.4%, 6.4%.
- M&T (NYSE:MTB): 11.1%, 6.9%, 6.9%.
- Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS): 16.4%, 10%, 9.1%.
- Northern Trust (NASDAQ:NTRS): 10.8%, 9.6%, 9.6%.
- PNC Financial (NYSE:PNC): 10.6%, 7.6%, 7.6%.
- Regions (NYSE:RF): 10.9%, 7.3%, 7.3%.
- Santander Holdings (NYSE:SAN): 12%, 11.8%, 11.8%
- State Street (NYSE:STT): 13%, 9.6%, 9.6%
- SunTrust (NYSE:STI): 10%, 7.5%, 7.5%.
- TD Group (NYSE:TD): 13.1%, 8.4%, 8.4%.
- U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB): 9.6%, 7.5%, 7.5%.
- Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC): 11.1%, 7.2%, 7.2%.
- Zions (NASDAQ:ZION): 12.2%, 6.6%, 6.6%.
- Previously: All 33 banks pass this year's stress tests (June 23)