Things Are Getting Better At KeyCorp
Why KeyCorp May Be One Of The Bank Sector's Safest Bets
Fri, Jun. 24, 11:58 AM
- The Too Big To Fail lenders are naturally among the day's big losers following the U.K. vote to leave the EU, but losses in the financial sector are wide and deep as - among other things - interest rates look to be a lot lower for a lot longer.
- Among asset managers, Invesco (IVZ -10.8%) - with a sizable U.K. exposure - is faring about the worst. WisdomTree (WETF -7.8%) takes a hit as the yen is the solo currency surging against the dollar, reducing demand for its popular hedged Japan ETF.
- It's wait till next year (or even 2018 if you believe short-term rate futures markets) for rate hikes, meaning regional lenders can't celebrate their passing of the Fed stress tests last night. Regions (RF -7.8%), KeyCorp (KEY -6.4%), PNC Financial (PNC -5.5%), U.S. Bancorp (USB -4.2%), BB&T (BBT -5.1%).
- Even lower rates put even more pressure on the business models of the life insurers: MetLife (MET -8.8%), Prudential (PRU -7.7%), Lincoln National (LNC -9.9%), Voya (VOYA -7%). Online brokers too: E*Trade (ETFC -9.4%), Schwab (SCHW -9.5%).
- ETFs: KRE, KBE, IAT, KBWB, QABA, KBWR, KRU, KRS, WDRW, DPST
Tue, Jun. 14, 3:48 PM
- The S&P 500 is down just 0.25%, but the financial sector (XLF -1.5%) is taking a far larger beating as the idea of higher interest rates fades, with German 10-year yields falling below zero, and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield within sight of its all-time low. KBE -2.3%, KRE -2.3%
- The FOMC concludes its two-day policy meeting tomorrow, at which updated economic projections and dots will be unveiled, along with a Janet Yellen press conference.
- How much of the panic into fixed-income is due to concern about the U.K. exiting the EU will become evident next Thursday night as that country's Brexit votes are tallied.
- Bank of America (BAC -2.5%), Citigroup (C -3.1%), Wells Fargo (WFC -2.5%), Regions Financial (RF -2.9%), KeyCorp (KEY -3.7%), PNC Financial (PNC -2.4%), Fifth Third (FITB -2.6%), SunTrust (STI -2.8%), E*Trade (ETFC -2.6%), MetLife (MET -1.6%), Prudential (PRU -1.8%), BNY Mellon (BK -2%)
- ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, UYG, VFH, IYF, BTO, IYG, FNCL, SEF, FXO, RYF, FINU, RWW, XLFS, FINZ, JHMF, FAZZ, FNCF
Fri, Jun. 3, 9:47 AM
- At the moment, it's looking like "wait till next year," for the higher interest rates much of the yield-starved financial sector has been waiting for. This morning's disappointing jobs numbers has traders quickly reversing bets on a rate hike this summer.
- Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield has crumbled to a two-month low of 1.70%.
- The XLF is down 1.9%, leading the S&P 500's 0.5% decline. The SPDR KBW Bank ETF (KBE -3.5%), the SPDR Regional Banking ETF (KRE -3.4%).
- Among the Too Big To Fail names, Bank of America (BAC -4.7%) and Citigroup (C -4.8%) are hardest hit. In regionals, Regions Financial (RF -4.4%), KeyCorp (KEY -4%), BB&T (BBT -3.3%), Fifth Third (FITB -4.4%).
- State Street (STT -3.5%), Northern Trust (NTRS -3.8%), Schwab (SCHW -5.4%), E*Trade (ETFC -5.8%), Ameritrade (AMTD -5.5%), MetLife (MET -3.6%), Prudential (PRU -3.2%), Lincoln Financial (LNC -4.1%)
- ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, KRE, UYG, VFH, KBE, IYF, BTO, IAT, IYG, FNCL, SEF, FXO, KBWB, QABA, KBWR, RYF, FINU, KRU, RWW, XLFS, FINZ, KRS, JHMF, WDRW, FAZZ, DPST, FNCF
Wed, May 18, 1:08 PM
- The meme of rates lower for longer has been stood on its head in the last 24 hours thanks to some decent economic data, but also surprisingly hawkish Fedspeak yesterday.
- The fixed-income world now believes remarks from the Fed's Williams and Lockhart yesterday may have been a preview of what we'll get when the real power speaks tomorrow - Fischer and Dudley - and then on May 27, when Janet Yellen gives a speech.
- Up at 2 ET are the minutes from the FOMC's April meeting.
- The 10-year yield is higher by five basis points to 1.82% and short-term rate markets have upped expectations for a Fed move this year.
- XLF +1.85%, KBE +3.15%, KRE +3.3%
- Bank of America (BAC +3.7%), Citigroup (C +4.2%), JPMorgan (JPM +3.2%), Wells Fargo (WFC +2.1%), U.S. Bancorp (USB +2.1%), Regions (RF +3.3%), KeyCorp (KEY +3.7%), PNC Financial (PNC +2.7%), Fifth Third (FITB +3.7%), Capital One (COF +1.9%), E*Trade (ETFC +4.4%), Schwab (SCHW +4.8%), MetLife (MET +2.9%), Prudential (PRU +3.4%), Lincoln National (LNC +4.2%), BNY Mellon (BK +2.3%), Northern Trust (NTRS +2.9%)
Thu, Apr. 21, 2:59 PM
- KeyCorp (KEY +1.5%) missed on the bottom line by a penny and the broader market is in the red, but investors are bidding up the bank's stock price.
- The company took a $24M charge for spending related to the First Niagara purchase this quarter, and CFO Don Kimble expects Key will spend a total of $550M before it's all over. Benefits: $400M in cost savings, efficiency ratio improves 300 bps, ROTCE improves 200 bps, IRR of 15%, EPS accretion of 5%. The deal is hoped to close in Q3.
- Conference call presentation slides
- The bank looks like it's starting to see the benefit of higher rates, with net interest income just budging higher sequentially.
- With a CET1 ratio of 11.11%, the bank has asked its board and the Fed for approval for a 13% increase in the dividend (along with buybacks).
- Now read: KeyCorp (NYSE:KEY) Beth Elaine Mooney on Q1 2016 Results - Earnings Call Transcript (April 21)
Thu, Apr. 7, 3:09 PM
- The 10-year Treasury yield at 1.69% has returned back to levels not seen since the panicky action in mid-February. And while the Fed has marked down its expectation of rate hikes this year to just two, short-term interest rate markets haven't even priced in one.
- This leaves those whose business model depends on riding the yield curve having to contend with not only a middling macro picture, but - once again - a rates lower for longer picture (although Jamie Dimon says his big fear is that markets aren't pricing in nearly enough in the way of higher rates).
- Citigroup (C -4.1%), Bank of America (BAC -3.3%), U.S. Bancorp (USB -2.8%), KeyCorp (KEY -3.4%), Regions Financial (RF -3.4%), BNY Mellon (BK -3.6%), E*Trade (ETFC -4.7%), Manulife (MFC -5.2%), Lincoln National (LNC -3.6%)
Tue, Mar. 29, 2:49 PM
- Not joining the broad market rally following Janet Yellen's caution on the pace of rate hikes are the financials (XLF -0.2%), where any earnings growth will depend, in part, on higher interest rates.
- The S&P 500 is higher by 0.85% and Nasdaq by 1.7%, but Bank of America (BAC -2.2%), Citigroup (C -1%), Wells Fargo (WFC -1.5%), Regions Financial (RF -2.1%), KeyCorp (KEY -1.8%), Fifth Third (FITB -2.1%), MetLife (MET -1.2%), and Prudential (PRU -0.8%) are among those under pressure.
- ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, UYG, VFH, IYF, BTO, IYG, SEF, FNCL, FXO, RYF, FINU, RWW, FINZ, XLFS
- Previously: Stocks and gold turn higher, yields and dollar lower, on Yellen remarks (March 29)
- Previously: Yellen signals caution on rate hikes (March 29)
Thu, Feb. 11, 2:37 PM
- Oil's lower by 3.3% today, but it's the financial sector (XLE -3.1%) again leading the S&P 500's 2.15% decline.
- For the year, the XLF is down by 17.9%, easily outpacing on the downside energy (down 13%) and the S&P 500 (down 11%).
- With the 10-year yield plunging all the way to 1.6% and short-term rates markets now beginning to price in Fed rate cuts this year, the banks are being hit particularly hard: Bank of America (BAC -8.1%), Citigroup (C -7.6%), JPMorgan (JPM -5.1%), Wells Fargo (WFC -2.9%), Goldman Sachs (GS -5.4%).
- Leading regionals (KRE -4.4%) lower are KeyCorp (KEY -5.9%), Huntington Bancshares (HBAN -4.9%), Fifth Third (FITB -5.4%), and PNC Financial (PNC -4.4%).
- ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, KRE, UYG, VFH, KBE, IYF, BTO, IAT, IYG, SEF, FNCL, FXO, KBWB, QABA, RYF, FINU, KBWR, KRU, RWW, FINZ, KRS, XLFS
- Previously: Lots of negative rate talk at Yellen hearing (Feb. 11)
- Previously: Insurers punished as rates plunge (Feb. 11)
Wed, Feb. 3, 10:25 AM
- This just in: The financial sector is having a worse go it this year than energy, with the XLF lower by 13.6% YTD vs. the XLE's 9% decline.
- Leading a big reversal from this morning higher open is the XLF's 2% decline. The S&P 500 is now off 1%, and the XLE "just" 0.85%.
- Among the issues for the financials are two items: 1) Hopes for a sustained rate hike cycle have been dashed, with the 10-year yield tumbling all the way to 1.82% currently from about 2.30% when the Fed hiked in mid-December. Fed speakers are all-of-a-sudden sounding very dovish (Dudley is the latest), and short-term rate futures are now pricing in just a 50% chance of even one Fed rate increase this year; 2) For lenders specifically, there's worry over their exposure to the crashing energy sector. No doubt better capitalized today than 10 years ago, losses are still losses even if they don't threaten the viability of the bank.
- JPMorgan (JPM -2.6%), Wells Fargo (WFC -3.6%), Morgan Stanley (MS -3.5%), KeyCorp (KEY -3.1%), PNC Financial (PNC -2%), Comerica (CMA -2.7%), Schwab (SCHW -3.8%), MetLife (MET -2.5%)
- ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, UYG, KRE, VFH, KBE, IYF, BTO, IAT, SEF, IYG, FXO, FNCL, KBWB, FINU, QABA, KRU, KBWR, RWW, RYF, PSCF, FINZ, KRS, XLFS
Nov. 2, 2015, 8:40 AM
- KeyCorp's (NYSE:KEY) move on Friday to buy First Niagara Financial (NASDAQ:FNFG) for $4.1B in stock and cash was greeted with a "Bronx cheer" by the market - its stock closed more than 10% lower.
- KBW and Citigroup buy the dip, with KBW upgrading to Outperform from Market Perform and Citigroup boosting to Buy from Neutral.
- Also tumbling on Friday, First Niagara catches an upgrade to Neutral from Sell at Goldman Sachs.
- KEY +1.8%, FNFG +0.5% premarket
- Previously: Investors not impressed as animal spirits return to bank M&A (Oct. 31)
- Previously: KeyCorp buying First Niagara Financial for $4.1B (Oct. 30)
Oct. 30, 2015, 10:06 AM
- Speaking on a post-deal conference call, KeyCorp (KEY -6.9%) CEO Beth Mooney says the purchase of First Niagara (FNFG +0.2%) has been discussed with regulators, and she's not expecting it to get held up the way M&T Bancorp's acquisition of Hudson City was.
- Presentation slides
- The combined bank will be tops in market share in the Buffalo region and other areas in Upstate New York (M&T is currently #1 in Western NY). It also establishes Key in areas like Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Hartford, and New Haven.
- Expect jobs cuts/branch closures, mostly in the Buffalo area as cost savings are hoped to be $400M annually, helping to boost ROTCE by 200 basis points and improve the cash efficiency ratio by 300 bps.
- Previously: KeyCorp buying First Niagara Financial for $4.1B (Oct. 30)
- Previously: Fed approves M&T's purchase of Hudson City; HCBK +5.4% (Sept. 30)
Oct. 30, 2015, 9:12 AM
Oct. 30, 2015, 7:25 AM
- First Niagara (NASDAQ:FNFG) owners will receive 0.68 shares of KeyCorp (NYSE:KEY) and $2.30 in cash for each share of FNFG they hold. Based on KeyCorp's close of $13.39 yesterday, it works out to $11.40 per share for First Niagara vs. its close last night of $10.38, and $9 in September when the bank put itself on the block.
- The combined bank will have about $135B in assets, making it the 13th biggest in the U.S.
- Annual cost savings are expected to be north of $400M. KeyCorp sees the deal as being accretive to EPS in 2017 and providing IRR of roughly 15%.
- Needless to say, regulators must first give their approval, but the deal is hoped to close in Q3 of 2016.
- A conference call is set for 8 ET
- FNFG +2.9% to $10.68, KEY -0.9% to $13.26 premarket
Oct. 29, 2015, 12:01 PM
- The deal could value First Niagara Financial (FNFG -2.2%) at modest premium to its current market cap of just under $4B, reports the WSJ, which says we could see an official announcement as soon as tomorrow.
- Before First Niagara owners are too disappointed, they should be reminded the stock is higher by about 18% since reports of the bank being on the block first hit one month ago.
- KeyCorp (KEY -1.4%)
Oct. 15, 2015, 2:49 PM
- The financial sector was pretty roughed-up during the August declines and hasn't really bounced a whole lot - in other words primed to rally on anything but the worst Q3 earnings results. Among those reporting today, Citigroup is up 4.7% and Goldman 3%. In regional banks, KeyCorp (KEY +4.8%), BB&T (BBT +2.9%), and U.S. Bancorp (USB +1%).
- The FInancial SPDR ETF (XLF +2.2%) is outperforming the S&P 500 by about 100 basis points on the session.
- The KBW Bank ETF (KBE +1.4%) and the KBW Regional Bank ETF (KRE +1.3%).
- ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, UYG, KRE, VFH, KBE, IYF, BTO, IAT, IAI, SEF, IYG, FXO, FNCL, KBWB, FINU, QABA, KBWR, KRU, RWW, RYF, FINZ, KRS, XLFS
Sep. 17, 2015, 2:37 PM
- It'll be at least a little while longer until banks and insurers get the higher rates they are hoping will boost sluggish profits, as the Fed holds its fire this month.
- The "dots" however are still projecting at least one rate hike before year-end.
- The SPDR KBW Regional Banking ETF (KRE -1.4%), and the SPDR KBW Bank ETF (KBE -1.2%).
- BofA (BAC -1.7%), Wells Fargo (WFC -1.2%), Regions (RF -2%), KeyCorp (KEY -1.8%), BB&T (BBT -1.7%), Fifth Third (FITB -2.4%), MetLife (MET -2.2%), Prudential Financial (PRU -1.9%), Schwab (SCHW -2.2%), Ameritrade (AMTD -2%), E*&Trade (ETFC -1.2%).
- ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, UYG, KRE, VFH, KBE, IYF, BTO, IAT, SEF, IYG, FXO, FNCL, KBWB, FINU, QABA, KRU, KBWR, RWW, RYF, PSCF, FINZ, KRS
KeyCorp is a bank holding company. The company through its subsidiary, KeyBank National Association provides a wide range of retail and commercial banking, commercial leasing, investment management, consumer finance and investment banking products and services to individual, corporate and... More
Industry: Money Center Banks
Country: United States
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