Kraft's Cheese Has Already Been Moved Far Enough
Stephen Simpson, CFA
Stephen Simpson, CFA
Wed, Jul. 20, 10:11 AM| Wed, Jul. 20, 10:11 AM | 2 Comments
Wed, Jul. 13, 11:35 AM
- It's steady as she goes again for the group of well-known consumer staples stocks that investors continue to find appealing amid global volatility and low interest rates.
- Procter & Gamble (PG +0.2%), Colgate-Palmolive (CL +0.4%), Clorox (CLX +0.6%), Kimbery-Clark (KMB +0.3%), Coca-Cola (KO +0.2%), PepsiCo (PEP +0.7%), Altria Group (MO +0.5%), Philip Morris International (PM +0.1%), Church & Dwight (CHD +0.3%), and Unilever (UN, UL) have all outperformed the S&P 500 Index this year with returns ranging from 7% to 18%. Kraft Heinz (KHC +1%), Energizer (ENR -0.6%), Hershey (HSY +0.4%), Campbell Soup (CPB +0.3%), and J.M. Smucker (SJM +0.4%) are all up at least 20% YTD.
- Goldman Sachs has an explanation on why a generous valuation is warranted for the staples favorites.
- "We raise our average Staples target multiples to 20-22X P/E, up from the 19-20X range prior, to reflect the recent decline in 10-year yield as well as some likelihood of a slower rise in yield over the next 12 months and broader market volatility," wrote the MNST)+(NYSE:STZ)+(NYSE:PF)/11822884.html" target="_blank">analyst team covering the sector in a note to investors.
- Top consumer staples picks from GS include Monster Beverage (MNST +0.4%), Constellation Brands (STZ +0.2%), Pinnacle Foods (PF +1.2%), and Post Holdings (POST +0.5%).
- Consumer staples ETFs: XLP, VDC, FXG, RHS, FSTA, PSL, PSCC.
Mon, Jul. 11, 2:12 PM
- A bill requiring food companies to label GMO ingredients was approved by the U.S. Senate by a 63 to 30 vote and now heads to the House of Representatives.
- The negotiated bill requires food companies to label genetically modified food by a phrase, symbol on the package, or a bar code that can be scanned by smartphones.
- The Department of agriculture still has two years to write the precise labeling rules if the House approves the bill.
- The passage of the bill is seen as a positive for the food sector as the alternative of having to adhere to state-by-state rules could create operational chaos for national sellers.
- Food stocks: SENEA, SENEB, THS, OTCPK:NCRA, CPB, MDLZ, GIS, OTCPK:NSRGY, FLO, CAG, DF, SJM,DF, ANFI, JJSF, WWAV, UL, OTCQX:DANOY, OTCPK:PLATF, POST, K, PEP, DMND, PF, HAIN, KO, BETR, KHC, WILC, PPC, PF, LWAY, HRL, TSN, DTEA, SAFM, BRID.
Fri, Jul. 1, 7:30 AM
- June monthly performance was: +1.86%
- 52-week performance vs. the S&P 500 is: +4%
- $0.07 in dividends were paid in June
- Top 10 Holdings as of 3/31/2016: General Mills Inc (GIS): 3.41805%, AT&T Inc (T): 3.01284%, Coca-Cola Co (KO): 2.95236%, Campbell Soup Co (CPB): 2.78964%, Exelon Corp (EXC): 2.28957%, The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (HIG): 2.24568%, Heineken NV (OTCQX:HINKF): 2.15959%, The Kraft Heinz Co (KHC): 1.97668%, Suncor Energy Inc (SU): 1.86666%, PPL Corp (PPL): 1.86557%
Mon, Jun. 27, 6:23 PM
- A lawsuit filed by options and future traders charging Kraft Heinz (KHC -0.1%) and Mondelez (MDLZ -2.1%) with price rigging will be allowed to proceed following a federal judge's ruling.
- The traders say the food giants illegally manipulated the price of wheat at their expense. At issue is a large late 2011 purchase of wheat futures that the plaintiffs say violates Sherman antitrust law and the Commodity Exchange Act.
- That charge moves forward, though a related claim that the two companies ran "wash trades" for a decade to hide manipulation was dismissed (and can be brought again).
- The case is similar to allegations raised by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which had previously noted Kraft Foods bought $90M in wheat futures in December 2011 to take a dominant position in the market without ever intending to take possession of the wheat.
Fri, Jun. 24, 11:05 AM
- Among consumer stocks covered by Susquehanna, the analysts say Mondelez (MDLZ -4.3%) and Coca-Cola European Partners (CCE -5.4%), along with Sodastream (SODA -2.7%), have the greatest earnings downside from a euro and pound that have gotten, well, pounded.
- The euro is currently down 2.3% against the dollar, while the pound is down 8.5%.
- "For those seeking to buy the dip, we would prefer MDLZ over CCE," the firm says, noting that 100% of CCE's revenues are exposed to those two currencies, it faces structural risks, and Coca-Cola's 48% ownership of CCE makes it an unlikely acquisition target.
- Acquisitive companies with U.S. dollar assets could go hunting in Europe, the analysts say, pointing to likely suitor Kraft Heinz (KHC -1.8%) -- a top pick for the firm, along with TreeHouse Foods (THS -0.6%) and Molson Coors (TAP -3.3%).
- Meanwhile, the possible ascendance of UKIP leader Nigel Farage in the UK or "anything that makes a Donald Trump presidency more likely" is bad for Mexico-heavy Constellation Brands (STZ -1.2%).
Fri, Jun. 17, 3:07 PM
- Susquehanna issued a detailed report on IRI scanner data trends in the food and beverage industry.
- The investment firm noted that soda drink volume fell 2.8% Y/Y for the 12-week period ending on June 5. PepsiCo (NYSE:PEP) volume was down 5%, compared to 1.3% decline for Coca-Cola KO and 1.9% fall-off for Dr. Pepper Snapple (NYSE:DPS).
- K-cup revenue was up 8% for the 12 weeks as J.M. Smucker (NYSE:SJM). Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX), and Dunkin' Brands (NASDAQ:DNKN) all showed strong volume amid ongoing pricing pressure. K-cup sales decelerated for Kraft Heinz (NASDAQ:KHC) and could turn negative if pricing pressure sustains.
- In the yogurt category, scanner data over four weeks confirmed that General Mills (NYSE:GIS) is losing market share to Chobani and Danone (OTCQX:DANOY). Susquehanna tips that Chobani may be prepping for a sale.
- General Mills beat out Kellogg (NYSE:K) in the cereal category as its 12-week sales growth of +2.3% easily topped Kellogg's 2.2% decline.
- Pricing with beer is helping to make up for continued volume pressure. Across the sector, pricing was recorded as 2.5% higher for the 12 weeks of data.
- Beer volume: Anheuser-Busch InBev (NYSE:BUD) -1.8%, MillerCoors (OTCPK:SBMRY, TAP) -2.7%, Boston Beer (NYSE:SAM) -2.1%.
- Susquehann'a Pablo Zuniac put together the deep dive into the scanned data.
- Within the F&B sector, he has BUD, THS, WWAV, TAP, and KHC rated at Positive.
Wed, Jun. 15, 10:05 AM
- Panera Bread (PNRA +0.1%) is beginning to flex its muscles in the grocery store channel in what could be an increasing challenge to major food companies such as General Mills (GIS +0.2%), Campbell Soup (CPB -0.5%), Hormel Foods (HRL +0.2%), and Kraft Heinz (KHC +0.1%).
- Some analysts think that Panera's strong brand recognition with consumers as a healthy alternative gives it a chance to dent the dominance of canned soup and canned meat sellers.
- Campbell Soup CEO Denise Morrison was put on the defensive on the company's last earnings call about the threat from Panera and others in the chilled soup category.
- Morrison talked about the smaller base that Panera is growing from, but also conceded that the company would have to stay active in the fresh and organic categories - instead of just relying on its iconic brands.
- Campbell Soup earnings call transcript
- Previously: Panera Bread's clean commitment extends to grocery stores (June 15)
Sat, Jun. 4, 1:19 PM
- Impossible Foods aims to disrupt the food industry by developing meat products from plant-based ingredients. Launched by a top biochemist from Stanford, the startup says it's on the verge of offering meat lovers an alternative that looks, smells, and even sizzles (video) like regular ground beef.
- Science timeout: Impossible honed in on a molecule called heme that catalyzes the flavors in meat. A legume-derived heme-containing protein is put to the task of creating the meat taste that even top chefs have raved about.
- The first Impossible Burgers are expected to be launched this year in the U.S.
- Notable names are taking in an interest in the concept. During the last venture capital round, Impossible brought in fresh funds from Bill Gates and Hong Kong tycoon Li Ka-shing. Former Nest/Google exec Tony Fadell is also an angel investor. Impossible Foods CEO Patrick Brown confirmed at Recode's Code conference that the company turned down an offer from Google (pre-Alphabet split) for somewhere between $200M and $300M.
- If the startup were to ramp up at scale, the development might be something to watch for meat giants such as Cargill, Tyson Foods (NYSE:TSN), JBS (OTC:JBSAF), and National Beef Packaging Company (NYSE:LUK). Kraft Heinz (NASDAQ:KHC) and Kellogg (NYSE:K) are already active in the frozen veggie burger category, while Whole Foods Market (NASDAQ:WFM) has been dabbling with indie brands. There's also an interesting tie-in with McDonald's (NYSE:MCD) looking to appeal to millennials and Chipotle (NYSE:CMG) working on developing a "better burger" concept.
Thu, Jun. 2, 9:24 AM
- May monthly performance was: +0.27%
- 52-week performance vs. the S&P 500 is: +5%
- No dividends were paid in May
- Top 10 Holdings as of 3/31/2016: General Mills Inc (GIS): 3.42%, AT&T Inc (T): 3.01%, Coca-Cola Co (KO): 2.95%, Campbell Soup Co (CPB): 2.79%, Exelon Corp (EXC): 2.29%, The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (HIG): 2.25%, Heineken NV (OTCQX:HINKF): 2.16%, The Kraft Heinz Co (KHC): 1.98%, Suncor Energy Inc (SU): 1.87%, PPL Corp (PPL): 1.87%
Sat, May 21, 12:49 PM
- Laslzo Birinyi still sees underlying strength in the stock market, despite the myriad of economic, technical, and political fears holding back investor enthusiasm.
- In particular, the well-known investor has his eyes on AutoZone (NYSE:AZO) and builder NVR (NYSE:NVR) as "special situations" stocks.
- Kraft Heinz (NASDAQ:KHC) also makes the list due to its lack of volatility amid a volatile market which could indicate upside down the road. On that point, a quick screen of other consumer goods stocks like Kraft that have weathered the uneven read on U.S. consumer spending and global demand over the last month may tip off some other value picks.
- Here's ten consumer good stocks with a low recent volatility measurement, below average forward P/E ratio, and +2% dividend yield: DEO, UN, UL, CAJ, RMCF, KO, PEP, BUD, PM, PG, TM.
- Related ETFs: IYK, UGE, SZK.
Thu, May 5, 9:04 AM
- Kraft Heinz (NASDAQ:KHC) trades higher after reporting a 38% jump in Q1 profit as the 3G-influenced cost-cutting campaign pays off. The comparison is based off of the prior independent results from Kraft and Heinz.
- Organic sales were up 1.1% in Q1, while pricing contributed 30 bps to sales growth.
- Segment-adjusted EBITDA was up 33% in the U.S. to $1.493B.
- Susquehanna analyst Pablo Zuanic thinks Kraft Heinz will end up delivering twice the synergy guidance of $1.5B set by the company. The analyst has a $98 price target on KHC (December 2016 time frame).
- Previously: Kraft Heinz reports Q1 results (May 4)
- KHC +5.06% premarket to $84.03.
Wed, May 4, 5:22 PM
Wed, May 4, 4:18 PM
Tue, May 3, 5:35 PM
- AGO, ALDW, ALIM, ALJ, ALL, ANDE, ARCW, AREX, ARRS, ATO, AUY, AWK, AWR, BNFT, BREW, BRKR, CB, CBPO, CCRN, CDI, CECO, CENT, CF, CLR, CODI, CONE, CPE, CPSI, CSII, CSOD, CTL, CTLT, CUZ, CW, CWST, CXO, CXW, DAC, DOX, DPM, DVA, ECR, EPM, EQC, EQIX, ES, ETE, ETP, EXEL, FEIC, FICO, FIT, FLT, FLTX, FNV, FOXA, FRPT, FRSH, FRT, GDDY, GDOT, GHDX, GIL, GPOR, GTY, HABT, HASI, HDP, HIL, HIVE, HOS, HR, HRTG, HUBS, IAC, INFI, IO, IRG, JONE, KHC, KND, KONA, KTOS, KW, LGCY, LHCG, LNC, LNT, LPI, LPSN, LXU, MAA, MASI, MATX, MCHP, MCK, MED, MET, MHLD, MNR, MRO, MTRX, MTW, MUR, NCMI, NLY, NVAX, OHI, OME, ORA, OREX, OSUR, PAA, PAGP, PDLI, PE, PEIX, PHH, PNNT, PRI, PRU, QRVO, QUIK, RICE, RIG, RLJ, RLYP, RP, RRTS, RST, RYN, SBY, SKUL, SQNM, SRC, SUN, SWM, SXL, SZYM, TASR, TCAP, TEAR, THG, TLLP, TPC, TPUB, TRIP, TROX, TSLA, TSLX, TSO, TWO, VECO, VNDA, VRNS, WBMD, WFM, WFT, WGL, WMB, WMGI, WPG, WPX, WTI, WTS, WTW, XEC, XOXO, YUME, ZNGA
Mon, May 2, 7:30 AM
- April monthly performance was: +1.25%
- 52-week performance vs. the S&P 500 is: +7%
- No dividends were paid in April
- Top 10 Holdings as of 12/31/2015: General Mills Inc (GIS): 3.41%, Coca-Cola Co (KO): 2.73%, Campbell Soup Co (CPB): 2.68%, AT&T Inc (T): 2.57%, Heineken NV (OTCQX:HINKF): 2.37%, The Kraft Heinz Co (KHC): 1.98%, Eli Lilly and Co (LLY): 1.9%, Exelon Corp (EXC): 1.88%, Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc (WBA): 1.87%, PPL Corp (PPL): 1.82%
The Kraft Heinz Co. produces processed food and beverage products. It is a newly formed company resulting from the merger of Kraft Foods Group, Inc. and H.J. Heinz Co. Kraft Foods Group manufactures and markets food and beverage products, including convenient meals, refreshment beverages and... More
Sector: Consumer Goods
Industry: Food - Major Diversified
Country: United States
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