Despite Its Strong Run-Up In 2013, Krispy Kreme Remains A Solid Stock
Black Coral Research
Black Coral Research
Jun. 10, 2015, 4:17 PM
- Krispy Kreme Doughnuts (NYSE:KKD): FQ1 EPS of $0.24 beats by $0.02.
- Revenue of $132.47M (+9.0% Y/Y) misses by $3.52M.
- Shares +2%.
Jun. 9, 2015, 5:35 PM
Jun. 4, 2015, 1:55 PM
- Same-store restaurant sales rose 1.1% in May, according to Black Box Intelligence.
- The mark was down 80 bps from the pace seen by the industry in April.
- Traffic was down 2.3% at comparable stores during the month.
- Higher menu prices sparked a 3.3% increase in average guest check.
- Pricing has been the major factor in same-store restaurant sales trending positive for 11 straight months.
- Restaurant stocks: CAKE, CBRL, CMG, DNKN, DPZ, DRI, EAT, JACK, MCD, PNRA, RRGB, RT, SBUX, SONC, WEN, BWLD, BDL, NATH, LUB, QSR, CHUY, BLMN, PZZA, TXRH, DENN, KKD, BBRG, DFRG, BOBE, RUTH, IRG, DIN, SHAK, HABT, NDLS, BOJA, PBPB, PLKI, FRSH, RAVE, LOCO, TACO, PZZA, KONA, BGR, BJRI, CHUY, FRS, CBRL, GTIM, TAST, ARKR,
Apr. 29, 2015, 1:22 PM
- Restaurants stocks are falling harder than broad market averages with disappointing reports from Buffalo Wild Wings and Panera Bread raising some concerns.
- Increasing labor and commodity costs are seen as a threat to margins across the group.
- Today's GDP report may also be a factor in the sector falling out of favor for the day.
- Decliners include Denny's (DENN -7%), Krispy Kreme Dougnuts (KKD -5.6%), Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB -5.9%), Kona Grill (KONA -6.6%), Texas Roadhouse (TXRH -5.9%), Jack in the Box (JACK -4.6%), Bloomin' Brands (BLMN -4.7%), El Pollo Loco (LOCO -4.6%), and Cracker Barrel (CBRL -4.8%).
- Even momentum-fueled Chipotle (CMG -1.7%) and Habit Restaurants (HABT -1.7%) are peeling off some gains, while Shake Shack (NYSE:SHAK) is proving harder to knock down and is +0.2% on the day.
- Previously: Panera Bread -2% after sluggish earnings print (April 28)
- Previously: Buffalo Wild Wings slumps with chicken wing and labor costs a concern (April 28)
Apr. 24, 2015, 11:33 AM
- The pizza and donut rally is still on a day after Domino's Pizza (DPZ +3.4%) and Dunkin' Brands (DNKN +5.6%) dazzled with their Q1 reports.
- While Dunkin' received the extra jolt of inclusion in the S&P 400, both stocks are being identified by retail analysts as benefiting from shifting consumer trends toward on-the-go and mobile.
- Krispy Kreme Doughnuts (KKD +2.9%), Rave Restaurant Group (RAVE +11.3%), and Papa Murphy's (FRSH +1.4%) are catching some sympathy bids as well.
- Previously: Sizzling comps at Domino's Pizza in Q1 (Apr. 23 2015)
- Previously: Dunkin' Brands +7% after earnings beat and guidance lift (Apr. 23 2015)
- Previously: DNKN +2.3% on S&P 400 addition; WD +3.1% on S&P 600 addition (Apr. 23 2015)
Mar. 11, 2015, 5:36 PM
Mar. 11, 2015, 4:29 PM
- Krispy Kreme (NYSE:KKD) hit double-digit revenue growth amid a store expansion phase.
- Comparable-store sales: Domestic stores +3.6%, international stores -2.6% (ex-currency).
- A stricter stance on promotions helped the company boost operating margins during the quarter.
- Total store count +53 to 709 Q/Q.
- Previously: Krispy Kreme Doughnuts EPS in-line, misses on revenue
- KKD -5.5% after hours.
Mar. 11, 2015, 4:04 PM
- Krispy Kreme Doughnuts (NYSE:KKD): Q4 EPS of $0.17 in-line.
- Revenue of $125.4M (+11.2% Y/Y) misses by $1.38M.
Mar. 10, 2015, 5:35 PM
Mar. 7, 2015, 10:13 AM
- A powerhouse quarter of improved comps and widened margins is in the books for the restaurant industry as investors look forward to see if the trend extends.
- The industry is in a growth phase with eating and drinking establishments adding 58.7K jobs in February on a seasonally adjusted basis to mark the biggest monthly gain since December of 2012.
- The early read on Q1 traffic is favorable (ex-weather), although chains could see some wage inflation pressure and innovation outlays with differentiated concepts popping up at Habit Restaurants (NASDAQ:HABT), Zoe's Kitchen (NYSE:ZOES), Shake Shack (NYSE:SHAK), and a host of others.
- Major digital initiatives at chains such as Panera Bread (NASDAQ:PNRA) and Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) also have the potential to be disruptive.
- A few screens to pick through the restaurant stock menu are listed below.
- Lowest forward P/E ratio: McDonald's (NYSE:MCD), Ruth's Hospitality (NASDAQ:RUTH), and Cracker Barrel (NASDAQ:CBRL).
- Lowest price/free cash flow ratio: Ruby Tuesday (NYSE:RT), Nathan's (NASDAQ:NATH), Jack in the Box (NASDAQ:JACK).
- Dividend yield +3%: DineEquity (NYSE:DIN), Darden Restaurants (NYSE:DRI), McDonald's, and Arcos Dorados (NYSE:ARCO).
- Top YTD performers: Jack in the Box (JACK), Wendy's (NASDAQ:WEN), Sonic (NASDAQ:SONC), El Pollo LoCo (NASDAQ:LOCO).
- PEG ratio below 2.00: Chuy's Holdings (NASDAQ:CHUY), Ruth's Hospitality, Krispy Kreme Donuts (NYSE:KKD), Cheesecake Factory (NASDAQ:CAKE), Brinker International (NYSE:EAT), Denny's (NASDAQ:DENN), Buffalo Wild Wings (NASDAQ:BWLD).
- Short ratio below 2%: Yum Brands (NYSE:YUM), Jack in the Box (JACK), Chipotle (NYSE:CMG), DineEquity, Bloomin' Brands (NASDAQ:BLMN), Denny's (DENN), McDonald's (MCD).
- Previously: Restaurant stocks continue hot streak (Feb. 24)
Feb. 24, 2015, 10:53 AM
- Restaurant stocks are out-performing market averages again as more chains report improved comparable-restaurant sales growth.
- The read on Q1 is that pricing and traffic trends are strong, despite what some broad measures of overall consumer confidence show.
- The $2 gas benefit is believed by analysts to have had a greater impact on restaurant spending than other areas of retail.
- Gainers include Luby's (LUB +4.9%), Cosi (COSI +5.4%), Rave Restaurant Group (RAVE +4.5%), Texas Roadhouse (TXRH +2.4%), Krispy Kreme Dougnuts (KKD +2.8%), Popeyes Louisian Kitchen (PLKI +1.7%), Bob Evans Farms (BOBE +1.1%), Darden Restaurants (DRI +1.4%).
- Even McDonald's (MCD +0.8%), which trailed the Q4 comp average in the sector by a wide margin, is out ahead of the S&P 500.
- Previously: Cracker Barrel +4.1% after traffic accelerates and guidance lifted
Feb. 18, 2015, 11:17 AM
- Krispy Kreme (KKD +0.7%) canceled a planned promotion at a branch in the U.K. due to an ill-advised naming of the event.
- KKK Wednesday was scrapped after complaints arose almost immediately after advertising started.
- The company issued a strong apology and promised a thorough investigation over the matter.
Feb. 12, 2015, 9:43 AM
- The read on retail sales in the U.S. isn't nearly as bad as the headline -0.8% M/M drop for January.
- Retail sales were up 3.3% compared to a year ago with a few sectors showing strong growth.
- Restaurant sales +11.3% Y/Y: The strong read follows up on a positive report from Black Box Intelligence on the sector. CAKE, CBRL, CMG, DPZ, DRI, EAT, JACK, PNRA, RRGB, RT, SBUX, SONC, WEN, BWLD, BDL, NATH, LUB, CHUY, BLMN, PZZA, TXRH, DENN, KKD, BBRG, DFRG, BOBE, RUTH, IRG, DIN, HABT, NDLS, PLKI, LOCO, YUM, KKD, TAST, GTIM, FRSH, COSI, FRS, PBPB, FRGI, QSR, CBRL, BLMN, ZOES.
- Sporting goods +8.0% Y/Y: DKS, BGFV, CAB, HIBB, SPWH.
- Building material and garden +6.9% Y/Y: A favorable weather compare came to the aid of this category. HD, LOW, LL.
- Health and personal care +6.6% Y/Y: Online channels have contributed for companies selling beauty and health items. ULTA, SBH, CVS, WBA, RAD.
Feb. 11, 2015, 10:37 AM
- Chain restaurants recorded their strongest pace of same-store sales in six years during January at 6.1%, according to data from Black Box Intelligence.
- An easier weather compare, $2 gas, and a more stable economic backdrop were factors.
- Traffic was up 2.4% during the month.
- The sales lift was delivered without much help from McDonald's which saw a marginal +0.4% comp gain.
- Comp sales in the Midwest improved 11.2% after the region had a much easier time with weather during January than a year ago.
- Chains with a large focus in the Midwest include Steak 'n Shake (NYSE:BH), Jimmy John's, Culvers, and Bob Evans (NASDAQ:BOBE).
- Restaurant stocks: CAKE, CBRL, CMG, DPZ, DRI, EAT, JACK, PNRA, RRGB, RT, SBUX, SONC, WEN, BWLD, BDL, NATH, LUB, CHUY, BLMN, PZZA, TXRH, DENN, KKD, BBRG, DFRG, BOBE, RUTH, IRG, DIN, HABT, NDLS, PLKI, LOCO, YUM, KKD, TAST, GTIM, FRSH, COSI, FRS, PBPB, FRGI, QSR, CBRL, BLMN, ZOES.
Jan. 23, 2015, 11:25 AM
- Analysts note McDonald's is not a bellwether stock for the restaurant industry anymore as the sector has many more names putting in gains today than losses despite the poor sales report from the Golden Arches.
- The quick (and perhaps obvious) take from within the sector is that chains sticking with a simple laser-focused message are winning out. Chipotle, Wendy's, and Domino's all fit that description.
- The copycat approach of McDonald's (McCafe, wings, premium burgers) and Olive Garden (prior to Starboard) hasn't worked, while a measured pace to expansion in new markets has also paid off (Starbucks vs. KFC).
- Previously: Restaurant comps ignited off of $2 gas effect (Jan. 09 2015)
- Previously: $2 gas little help to McDonald's in Q4 (Jan. 23 2015)
- Restaurant stocks: CAKE, CBRL, CMG, DPZ, DRI, EAT, JACK, PNRA, RRGB, RT, SBUX, SONC, WEN, BWLD, BDL, NATH, LUB, CHUY, BLMN, PZZA, TXRH, DENN, KKD, BBRG, DFRG, BOBE, RUTH, IRG, DIN, HABT, NDLS, PLKI, LOCO, YUM, KKD, BOBE, TAST, GTIM, FRSH, COSI, FRS, PBPB, FRGI, QSR, CBRL, BLMN, MFRD, ZOES, MCD, YUM.
Jan. 22, 2015, 8:26 AM
- The largest fast food company in the Philippines is hungry for an U.S. acquisition, according to a regulatory filing.
- Jollibee, which has strong sales and organic growth rates in SE Asia, would like to target a QSR player with a market value of at least $1B to make its U.S. entry.
- Hedgeye advises that Krispy Kreme (NYSE:KKD), Wendy's (NASDAQ:WEN), Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen (NASDAQ:PLKI), Sonic (NASDAQ:SONC), and Jack in the Box (NASDAQ:JACK) are in play.
Krispy Kreme Doughnuts, Inc. operates as an retailer and wholesaler of doughnuts, complementary beverages and treats and packaged sweets. It operates through four business segments: Company Stores, Domestic Franchise, International Franchise and KK Supply Chain. The Company Stores segment is... More
Country: United States
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