The Devil Is In The Details Of Solar Securitization
Troy Jensen • 10 Comments
Troy Jensen • 10 Comments
Wed, Mar. 23, 3:05 PM
- Like many other energy names, solar stocks are underperforming (TAN -3.8%) on a day oil prices are giving back some of their recent gains. WTI crude is down 4.3% to $39.69/barrel, and Brent crude down 3.2% to $40.45/barrel. The S&P is down 0.6%, and the Nasdaq down 1%.
- SunEdison (down 12.1%) is among the casualties, as liquidity/solvency fears continue surrounding the beaten-up solar/wind project developer. SunEdison yieldcos TerraForm Power (TERP -3.3%) and TerraForm Global (GLBL -4.7%) are also off.
- SolarCity (SCTY -9.6%), which yesterday afternoon announced the closing of a $131M tax equity solar project fund, is also off sharply. Other notable decliners include SunPower (SPWR -7.4%), First Solar (FSLR -4%), Canadian Solar (CSIQ -4.2%), Sunrun (RUN -4.3%), Enphase (ENPH -6.5%), Daqo (DQ -5%), JinkoSolar (JKS -5.9%), Sky Solar (SKYS -11.1%), and former SunEdison acquisition target Vivint Solar (VSLR -11.3%).
Tue, Feb. 16, 2:36 PM
- Solar stocks are among the standouts (TAN +6.4%) as the Nasdaq rises 2.1% and the S&P 1.6%. The gains come after Canadian Solar (up 16.6%) hiked its Q4 sales, module shipment, and gross margin guidance.
- SunEdison (SUNE +20.6%), clobbered last week amid a temporary asset sale restraining order that further stoked bankruptcy fears, is rebounding. The gains come in spite of a downgrade to Neutral from BofA/Merrill's Krish Sankar, who's worried about a mixture of financing, legal, and execution issues.
- Yingli (YGE +15.9%), another company that has seen its share of solvency fears, is also up strongly. Other big gainers include SunPower (SPWR +11.2%), SolarCity (SCTY +6.2%), JinkoSolar (JKS +11.6%), Trina (TSL +7.5%), 8point3 Energy (CAFD +8.4%), Enphase (ENPH +7.7%), Daqo (DQ +7.2%), JA Solar (JASO +6.9%), Sky Solar (SKYS +7.5%), and SunEdison acquisition target Vivint Solar (VSLR +9.5%).
- Five days ago: Solar stocks hammered again; SunEdison tumbles after lawsuit
Thu, Feb. 11, 2:12 PM
- The Nasdaq is down 1%, the S&P is down 1.7%, and energy stocks are under pressure as WTI crude falls below $27/barrel. All of that has spelled more pain for solar stocks - the Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN -5.6%) is at levels last seen in 2013.
- The selloff comes a day after SolarCity plummeted in response to a Q4 installation miss and soft Q1 guidance - SolarCity (down 14.4%) is adding to its losses today following a Barclays downgrade, as is rival Sunrun (down 15.2%).
- Meanwhile, hard-luck SunEdison (SUNE -13.8%) is off sharply today following news shareholders of hydro/wind power developer Latin American Power have sued the company, stating they need a court order to protect SunEdison's assets while they pursue a $150M arbitration claim. SunEdison struck a deal to buy Latin American Power in May, but the agreement was later terminated.
- SunEdison acquisition target Vivint Solar (VSLR -12.1%) and SunEdison yieldco TerraForm Power (TERP -6.4%) are also among today's casualties, Other major solar decliners: SunPower (SPWR -6.2%), Canadian Solar (CSIQ -7.6%), Enphase (ENPH -6.1%), and Solar3D (SLTD -5.7%).
Tue, Jan. 19, 3:21 PM
- The Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN -2.5%) has made fresh 52-week lows on another rough day for energy stocks in general. WTI crude is down 3.8% to $28.31/barrel - downbeat IEA commentary and concerns about the end of Iranian sanctions could be weighing. The S&P is down 0.5%, and the Nasdaq 0.9%.
- A handful of names are seeing much bigger losses than TAN's. The group includes SolarCity (SCTY -13.1%), SunEdison (SUNE -9.3%), SunEdison yieldco TerraForm Power (TERP -8.4%), SunEdison acquisition target Vivint (VSLR -16.4%), Yingli (YGE -6.9%), Sunrun (RUN -4.5%), and 8point3 Energy (CAFD -5.3%).
- SunEdison opened higher after announcing it had closed the second part of a deal involving the purchase and subsequent sale of a 33% stake in a 567MW solar plant portfolio, but quickly gave back its gains. TerraForm has been downgraded to Neutral by BofA/Merrill. Sunrun has announced the closing of $250M worth of credit facilities to finance U.S. residential solar installations.
- A week ago: Solar stocks fall as energy stocks sell off, oil trades near $30/barrel
Thu, Jan. 7, 2:32 PM
- Solar stocks are among the biggest casualties as the Nasdaq drops 2.8% and markets generally go into risk-off mode. After soaring last month in response to U.S. renewable tax credit extensions, the Guggenheim Solar ETF (NYSEARCA:TAN) is now just slightly over $2 above a 52-week low of $25.25.
- SunEdison (down 33%) is the biggest decliner in the group, after having announced a set of dilutive debt offerings and exchange transactions. Canadian Solar (CSIQ -14.4%), JinkoSolar (JKS -14.6%), Solar3D (SLTD -11.2%), Sky Solar (SKYS -16.6%), and RGS Energy (RGSE -10.4%) are also seeing double-digit losses.
- Other major decliners: SolarCity (SCTY -6.8%), First Solar (FSLR -5.5%), SunPower (SPWR -9.9%), Enphase (ENPH -6%), SolarEdge (SEDG -5.3%), TerraForm Power (TERP -8.2%), TerraForm Global (GLBL -5.7%), and JA Solar (JASO -5.3%).
Dec. 21, 2015, 11:11 AM
- The Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN +2.1%) is now up 11% since Congress agreed six days ago to a budget compromise (officially passed on Friday) that involved extending the solar investment tax credit (ITC) and wind production tax credit (PTC). Today's gains come with the Nasdaq up 0.6%.
- U.S. solar stocks naturally continue headlining the list of gainers. The list includes SunPower (SPWR +3.4%), First Solar (FSLR +3.3%), Sunrun (RUN +6.9%), Enphase (ENPH +8%), 8point3 Energy (CAFD +4.1%), RGS Energy (RGSE +19.6%), and Solar3D (SLTD +4.5%).
- Other winners include JinkoSolar (JKS +4.7%), ReneSola (SOL +8%), Yingli (YGE +3.5%), China Sunergy (CSUN +4.2%), TerraForm Global (GLBL +3.2%), and SolarEdge (SEDG +3.2%), the last of which depends heavily on the U.S. residential market.
- Citing (what else?) the tax credit extensions, Morgan Stanley's Stephen Byrd has respectively hiked his SolarCity (SCTY -0.3%), First Solar, SunPower, and Sunrun targets by $18, $2, $2, and $5 to $104, $70, $43, and $28. Bernstein and KeyBanc respectively upgraded SolarCity and Sunrun last Thursday.
Dec. 18, 2015, 2:43 PM
- The Nasdaq is down 1.1% and the S&P 1.2%, but solar stocks are once more higher (TAN +1.6%) after the House and Senate officially passed multi-year extensions for the solar investment tax credit (ITC) and wind production tax credit (PTC). The group skyrocketed on Wednesday after Congressional Republicans gave their support to a budget compromise that featured the extensions.
- Notable gainers include SunEdison (SUNE +4.3%), Vivint (VSLR +3.7%), Trina (TSL +4.2%), Sunrun (RUN +7.2%), TerraForm Power (TERP +1.6%), TerraForm Global (GLBL +7.4%), Solar3D (SLTD +6%), ReneSola (SOL +5.6%), and RGS Energy (RGSE +7.3%). RGS, a microcap, could be benefiting from news it has signed a letter of intent for a $5M loan facility.
- SolarCity (SCTY +1.6%) is up moderately after starting the day lower thanks to fresh bearish remarks from Jim Chanos. Canadian Solar (CSIQ +3.1%) is higher after announcing it's partnering with Southern Co. on a new 200MW project. Daqo (DQ +5.5%) is rallying following bullish coverage from Northland Securities.
Dec. 16, 2015, 9:52 AM
- Solar stocks are flying higher (TAN +6.4%) after House Republicans unveiled (as part of a compromise with Democrats that involved lifting a U.S. oil export ban) that would keep the solar investment tax credit (ITC, has been set to expire at the end of 2016) at 30% through 2019, before being phased down through 2022.
- In addition, the wind production tax credit (PTC) would be extended through 2020, albeit with a phase-down from a current level of 2.3 cents per kWh that would start in 2017.
- U.S. solar firms are naturally among the biggest gainers: The group includes SolarCity (SCTY +24.6%), SunEdison (SUNE +17%), First Solar (FSLR +8.5%), SunPower (SPWR +14.3%), Sunrun (RUN +23.1%), TerraForm Power (TERP +8.3%), 8point3 Energy (CAFD +5.6%), Solar3D (SLTD +4.6%), and RGS Energy (RGSE +6.9%). SunEdison/TerraForm also have healthy wind exposure. Enphase (ENPH +29.1%) is soaring on the news and a Roth upgrade to Buy.
- Israel's SolarEdge (SEDG +14.4%), which has strong exposure to U.S. installers, is also surging. Other winners include Canadian Solar (CSIQ +8.4%), Trina (TSL +4.9%), JinkoSolar (JKS +7.3%), JA Solar (JASO +3.1%), China Sunergy (CSUN +3.8%), and TerraForm Global (GLBL +5.6%). JA Solar has also been upgraded to Buy by Roth.
Dec. 14, 2015, 1:41 PM
- Solar stocks are posting big gains (TAN +4.8%) on a quiet day for equities after representatives of 195 countries (including the U.S. and major developing nations such as China and India) reached a deal in Paris to curb greenhouse gas emissions. Coal stocks are going in the opposite direction.
- Also: 1) Oil prices are bouncing after trading near multi-year lows earlier today. WTI crude is up 2.2% to $36.40/barrel. 2) Trina Solar (up 11.4%) has received a preliminary going-private offer at a 21.5% premium to Friday's close.
- U.S. firms SolarCity (SCTY +8.4%), Sunrun (RUN +13.4%), TerraForm Power (TERP +8%), and RGS Energy (RGSE +25%) are among the standouts. Other U.S. gainers include First Solar (FSLR +4.6%), SunPower (SPWR +6.5%) and Vivint (VSLR +2.8%). First Solar tumbled last week in response to its 2016 guidance; SunPower was hit by a $400M convertible offering.
- Among non-U.S. names, gainers include Canadian Solar (CSIQ +4.4%), Yingli (YGE +2.9%), ReneSola (SOL +3.8%), and China Sunergy (CSUN +3.9%). SolarEdge (SEDG +4.6%), based in Israel but with strong U.S. exposure, is also doing well.
- Update: Also possibly helping the group: Congressional Democrats are reportedly open to a deal to lift an oil-export ban in exchange for extending solar and wind tax credits.
Dec. 3, 2015, 3:02 PM
- The Nasdaq is down 1.7% and the S&P 1.4%, but many solar names still have healthy gains for the day. A rally in oil prices ahead of a Friday OPEC meeting (WTI crude is up 2.9% to $41.10/barrel) could be helping, as might hopes for a new emissions-reduction agreement at the Paris climate conference.
- Heavily-shorted SolarCity (SCTY +3%) is adding to its big Tuesday/Wednesday gains. Beaten-down SunEdison (SUNE +5.3%) is also higher, as are SunPower (SPWR +3.3%), Trina (TSL +4.1%), ReneSola (SOL +3%), Enphase (ENPH +5.4%), and Sunrun (RUN +6.5%).
- ETFs: TAN, KWT
Nov. 17, 2015, 3:28 PM
- SunEdison is down 33% as fears about the solar/wind project developer's balance sheet and cash flow profile continue unabated, and 13F filings indicate many hedge funds pared or liquidated their positions in Q3.
- The Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN -4.8%) has fallen towards $26; the 52-week low (set in September) is $25.25. The Nasdaq and S&P are down modestly.
- Aside from SunEdison and its YieldCos, notable decliners include Canadian Solar (CSIQ -6.7%), SunPower (SPWR -7.5%), Enphase (ENPH -11.1%), SolarEdge (SEDG -7.7%), Daqo (DQ -4.3%), and Sunrun (RUN -4.9%). All but Daqo have strong North American exposure.
- SolarCity (SCTY -7.7%) is also off sharply, though Elon Musk has disclosed fresh purchases over the last few days. JA Solar (JASO -2.6%) is lower in spite of posting a Q3 beat and issuing solid Q4 shipment guidance.
Nov. 11, 2015, 1:46 PM
- Markets continue to become more risk-averse towards two once-high-flying industries: Solar stocks are adding to the Tuesday losses seen following SunEdison and Canadian Solar's earnings (TAN -2.5%), and 3D printing stocks are taking another leg lower after dropping yesterday in the wake of ExOne's results/guidance. The Nasdaq and S&P are nearly flat.
- Solar decliners: SunEdison (SUNE -15.7%), SolarCity (SCTY -3.9%), SunPower (SPWR -3.5%), SolarEdge (SEDG -13.1%), Vivint (VSLR -10.8%), TerraForm Power (TERP -4%), TerraForm Global (GLBL -4.6%), Sunrun (RUN -2.9%), and 8point3 Energy (CAFD -4.4%). SunEdison, SolarCity, SolarEdge, and TerraForm Power have made new 52-week lows.
- 3D printing decliners: 3D Systems (DDD -6.1%), Stratasys (SSYS -4.7%), ExOne (XONE -5.6%), and Voxeljet (VJET -3.9%). 3D and Stratasys have made new 52-week lows.
- UBS has cut its SunEdison target by $3 to $6. Among other things, it attributes SunEdison's post-earning nosedive to lower-than-expected margins on retained projects, management's plans to push ahead with the Vivint acquisition, and LAP Holdings' plans to seek at least $150M in damages following SunEdison's cancelled acquisition of the company.
- RBC (target cut by $4 to $20) has joined the ranks of firms defending SunEdison (previous), arguing its recent decisions to cut project construction guidance, lower spending, and sell a greater portion of its projects to third parties make sense. It sees the company "progressing towards sustainable growth," while cautioning shares will remain volatile in the near-term. SunEdison is down 34% over the last two days.
Nov. 10, 2015, 11:14 AM
- SunEdison (SUNE -18.9%) has plunged to new multi-year lows after posting mixed Q3 results, cutting its full-year cash available for distribution (CAFD) guidance, and narrowing its full-year project delivery guidance. Canadian Solar (CSIQ -6.5%) has gone south in spite of beating estimates and providing above-consensus Q4 guidance.
- Solar peers are also off - the Guggenheim Solar ETF (NYSEARCA:TAN) is at its lowest levels since early October. U.S. decliners include First Solar (FSLR -6.2%), SolarCity (SCTY -6%), SunPower (SPWR -6.3%), Enphase (ENPH -8.1%), Solar3D (SLTD -4.6%), SunEdison's TerraForm Power (TERP -13.2%) YieldCo, and SunEdison acquisition target Vivint (VSLR -3.9%).
- International decliners include Chinese plays Trina (TSL -5.7%), ReneSola (SOL -7.1%), JinkoSolar (JKS -9.2%), and JA Solar (JASO -5.3%), as well as Israel's SolarEdge (SEDG -6.7%) and SunEdison's emerging markets-focused TerraForm Global (TERP -13.2%) YieldCo.
- “Right now I want the company to become more boring, Boring, and cash-flow generating," said embattled SunEdison CEO Ahmad Chatila on the Q3 earnings call. He reiterated SunEdison expects to build 3.3GW-3.7GW of projects in 2016; the company had once planned to build 4.5GW.
Oct. 27, 2015, 2:38 PM
- Solar stocks are getting hit hard (TAN -4.7%) as U.S. natural gas falls below $2/MMBtu for the first time since April 2012, WTI crude drops 1.8% to $43.19/barrel, and coal miners Consol Energy and Peabody Energy post disappointing earnings. Many energy stocks are also selling off.
- Beaten-down SunEdison (SUNE -10.4%) is among the biggest solar decliners. As are microinverter maker Enphase (ENPH -12.3%) and inverter/power optimizer maker SolarEdge (SEDG -8.3%). SunEdison is within $0.50 of a 52-week low of $6.56, and Enphase within $0.20 of a 52-week low of $3.42.
- Other decliners include SunEdison YieldCos TerraForm Power (TERP -6.2%) and TerraForm Global (GLBL -3.7%), SunEdison acquisition target Vivint (VSLR -5.5%), and Canadian Solar (CSIQ -4.8%), which yesterday jumped thanks to a Q3 guidance hike.
- Also on the casualty list are First Solar (FSLR -2.9%), SunPower (SPWR -3.9%), Yingli (YGE -6%), China Sunergy (CSUN -8.2%), and JinkoSolar (JKS -3.9%). SunPower's Q3 report arrives tomorrow, and First Solar's on Thursday.
Oct. 16, 2015, 2:30 PM
- After bouncing strongly from their late-September lows over the last two weeks (a rally in crude prices/energy stocks helped), solar stocks are among the laggards (TAN -2.4%) on a day the Nasdaq and S&P are nearly flat.
- U.S. firms SolarCity (SCTY -5.3%), SunEdison (SUNE -3.6%), Enphase (ENPH -6%), Sunrun (RUN -2.5%), and RGS Energy (RGSE -6.5%) are among the decliners. Others include SolarEdge (SEDG -4.6%), Trina (TSL -2.3%), JinkoSolar (JKS -2.3%), and SunEdison's TerraForm Global (GLBL -2%) YieldCo.
- SolarCity reports earnings on Oct. 29, and rival Sunrun on Nov. 12.
Oct. 2, 2015, 4:03 PM
- Like various other names clobbered in recent weeks as markets went into risk-off mode, solar stocks posted outsized gains today, with the Guggenheim Solar ETF (NYSEARCA:TAN) more than erasing its big Monday losses. A rally in energy stocks (aided by higher crude prices) likely helped out. The Nasdaq rose 1.7%, and the S&P 1.4%.
- SunEdison (SUNE +14.7%), which continues trading at a fraction of its June/July highs thanks to debt/cash flow fears and apparent hedge fund selling, was a standout. SolarCity (SCTY +7.3%), which made a high-efficiency panel announcement earlier today, also fared quite well, as did SunEdison buyout target Vivint (VSLR +10.8%), SunEdison YieldCo TerraForm Power (TERP +12.9%), and fellow North American firms Canadian Solar (CSIQ +12.5%), First Solar (FSLR +6.5%), SunPower (SPWR +5.8%), and Enphase (ENPH +11.4%).
- In addition to Daqo, ReneSola, and Yingli (previously covered), Chinese winners included JinkoSolar (JKS +11.6%), Trina (TSL +6.7%), and JA Solar (JASO +5.7%).
VanEck Vectors Solar Energy ETF (KWT) seeks to replicate as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the price and yield performance of the MVIS Global Solar Energy Index (MVKWTTR), which is intended to track the overall performance of companies involved in photovoltaic and solar power, or the provision of solar power equipment/technologies and material or services to solar power equipment/technologies producers.
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