Tue, Nov. 17, 3:28 PM
- SunEdison is down 33% as fears about the solar/wind project developer's balance sheet and cash flow profile continue unabated, and 13F filings indicate many hedge funds pared or liquidated their positions in Q3.
- The Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN -4.8%) has fallen towards $26; the 52-week low (set in September) is $25.25. The Nasdaq and S&P are down modestly.
- Aside from SunEdison and its YieldCos, notable decliners include Canadian Solar (CSIQ -6.7%), SunPower (SPWR -7.5%), Enphase (ENPH -11.1%), SolarEdge (SEDG -7.7%), Daqo (DQ -4.3%), and Sunrun (RUN -4.9%). All but Daqo have strong North American exposure.
- SolarCity (SCTY -7.7%) is also off sharply, though Elon Musk has disclosed fresh purchases over the last few days. JA Solar (JASO -2.6%) is lower in spite of posting a Q3 beat and issuing solid Q4 shipment guidance.
Wed, Nov. 11, 1:46 PM
- Markets continue to become more risk-averse towards two once-high-flying industries: Solar stocks are adding to the Tuesday losses seen following SunEdison and Canadian Solar's earnings (TAN -2.5%), and 3D printing stocks are taking another leg lower after dropping yesterday in the wake of ExOne's results/guidance. The Nasdaq and S&P are nearly flat.
- Solar decliners: SunEdison (SUNE -15.7%), SolarCity (SCTY -3.9%), SunPower (SPWR -3.5%), SolarEdge (SEDG -13.1%), Vivint (VSLR -10.8%), TerraForm Power (TERP -4%), TerraForm Global (GLBL -4.6%), Sunrun (RUN -2.9%), and 8point3 Energy (CAFD -4.4%). SunEdison, SolarCity, SolarEdge, and TerraForm Power have made new 52-week lows.
- 3D printing decliners: 3D Systems (DDD -6.1%), Stratasys (SSYS -4.7%), ExOne (XONE -5.6%), and Voxeljet (VJET -3.9%). 3D and Stratasys have made new 52-week lows.
- UBS has cut its SunEdison target by $3 to $6. Among other things, it attributes SunEdison's post-earning nosedive to lower-than-expected margins on retained projects, management's plans to push ahead with the Vivint acquisition, and LAP Holdings' plans to seek at least $150M in damages following SunEdison's cancelled acquisition of the company.
- RBC (target cut by $4 to $20) has joined the ranks of firms defending SunEdison (previous), arguing its recent decisions to cut project construction guidance, lower spending, and sell a greater portion of its projects to third parties make sense. It sees the company "progressing towards sustainable growth," while cautioning shares will remain volatile in the near-term. SunEdison is down 34% over the last two days.
Tue, Nov. 10, 11:14 AM
- SunEdison (SUNE -18.9%) has plunged to new multi-year lows after posting mixed Q3 results, cutting its full-year cash available for distribution (CAFD) guidance, and narrowing its full-year project delivery guidance. Canadian Solar (CSIQ -6.5%) has gone south in spite of beating estimates and providing above-consensus Q4 guidance.
- Solar peers are also off - the Guggenheim Solar ETF (NYSEARCA:TAN) is at its lowest levels since early October. U.S. decliners include First Solar (FSLR -6.2%), SolarCity (SCTY -6%), SunPower (SPWR -6.3%), Enphase (ENPH -8.1%), Solar3D (SLTD -4.6%), SunEdison's TerraForm Power (TERP -13.2%) YieldCo, and SunEdison acquisition target Vivint (VSLR -3.9%).
- International decliners include Chinese plays Trina (TSL -5.7%), ReneSola (SOL -7.1%), JinkoSolar (JKS -9.2%), and JA Solar (JASO -5.3%), as well as Israel's SolarEdge (SEDG -6.7%) and SunEdison's emerging markets-focused TerraForm Global (TERP -13.2%) YieldCo.
- “Right now I want the company to become more boring, Boring, and cash-flow generating," said embattled SunEdison CEO Ahmad Chatila on the Q3 earnings call. He reiterated SunEdison expects to build 3.3GW-3.7GW of projects in 2016; the company had once planned to build 4.5GW.
Tue, Oct. 27, 2:38 PM
- Solar stocks are getting hit hard (TAN -4.7%) as U.S. natural gas falls below $2/MMBtu for the first time since April 2012, WTI crude drops 1.8% to $43.19/barrel, and coal miners Consol Energy and Peabody Energy post disappointing earnings. Many energy stocks are also selling off.
- Beaten-down SunEdison (SUNE -10.4%) is among the biggest solar decliners. As are microinverter maker Enphase (ENPH -12.3%) and inverter/power optimizer maker SolarEdge (SEDG -8.3%). SunEdison is within $0.50 of a 52-week low of $6.56, and Enphase within $0.20 of a 52-week low of $3.42.
- Other decliners include SunEdison YieldCos TerraForm Power (TERP -6.2%) and TerraForm Global (GLBL -3.7%), SunEdison acquisition target Vivint (VSLR -5.5%), and Canadian Solar (CSIQ -4.8%), which yesterday jumped thanks to a Q3 guidance hike.
- Also on the casualty list are First Solar (FSLR -2.9%), SunPower (SPWR -3.9%), Yingli (YGE -6%), China Sunergy (CSUN -8.2%), and JinkoSolar (JKS -3.9%). SunPower's Q3 report arrives tomorrow, and First Solar's on Thursday.
Fri, Oct. 16, 2:30 PM
- After bouncing strongly from their late-September lows over the last two weeks (a rally in crude prices/energy stocks helped), solar stocks are among the laggards (TAN -2.4%) on a day the Nasdaq and S&P are nearly flat.
- U.S. firms SolarCity (SCTY -5.3%), SunEdison (SUNE -3.6%), Enphase (ENPH -6%), Sunrun (RUN -2.5%), and RGS Energy (RGSE -6.5%) are among the decliners. Others include SolarEdge (SEDG -4.6%), Trina (TSL -2.3%), JinkoSolar (JKS -2.3%), and SunEdison's TerraForm Global (GLBL -2%) YieldCo.
- SolarCity reports earnings on Oct. 29, and rival Sunrun on Nov. 12.
Fri, Oct. 2, 4:03 PM
- Like various other names clobbered in recent weeks as markets went into risk-off mode, solar stocks posted outsized gains today, with the Guggenheim Solar ETF (NYSEARCA:TAN) more than erasing its big Monday losses. A rally in energy stocks (aided by higher crude prices) likely helped out. The Nasdaq rose 1.7%, and the S&P 1.4%.
- SunEdison (SUNE +14.7%), which continues trading at a fraction of its June/July highs thanks to debt/cash flow fears and apparent hedge fund selling, was a standout. SolarCity (SCTY +7.3%), which made a high-efficiency panel announcement earlier today, also fared quite well, as did SunEdison buyout target Vivint (VSLR +10.8%), SunEdison YieldCo TerraForm Power (TERP +12.9%), and fellow North American firms Canadian Solar (CSIQ +12.5%), First Solar (FSLR +6.5%), SunPower (SPWR +5.8%), and Enphase (ENPH +11.4%).
- In addition to Daqo, ReneSola, and Yingli (previously covered), Chinese winners included JinkoSolar (JKS +11.6%), Trina (TSL +6.7%), and JA Solar (JASO +5.7%).
Mon, Sep. 28, 1:41 PM
- Solar stocks are among the market's biggest casualties as the Nasdaq (down 2.5%) and energy stocks get battered. The Guggenheim Solar ETF (NYSEARCA:TAN) has made fresh 52-week lows, and is now down 49% from an April peak of $50.00.
- In addition to hedge fund darling SunEdison (down 17.4%, see prior coverage), major decliners include First Solar (FSLR -5.9%), SunPower (SPWR -9.1%), Canadian Solar (CSIQ -7.7%), SolarEdge (SEDG -11.1%), Enphase (ENPH -10.3%), Solar3D (SLTD -5.9%), Trina (TSL -9.4%), JinkoSolar (JKS -8.6%), and First Solar/SunPower YieldCo 8point3 Energy (CAFD -7.6%).
- SunEdison YieldCos TerraForm Power (TERP -8.5%) and TerraForm Global (GLBL -7.8%) are also off sharply, as is SunEdison acquisition target Vivint (VSLR -8.9%).
Tue, Aug. 25, 12:34 PM
- The Nasdaq is up 3.4% - a Chinese rate cut is helping - and solar stocks are among the day's standouts. The Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN +7.4%) is now up 14% from a Monday morning low of $25.51, albeit still down 13% from where it traded going into last week.
- Today's gains come after Pres. Obama announced several new incentives meant to boost solar investment. Among them: $1B in additional loan guarantee authority for distributed energy projects, the unlocking of Property-Assessed Clean Energy (PACE) financing for solar installations involving single-family homes, and the creation of a HUD/DOE program to give homeowners "a simple way to measure and improve the energy efficiency of their homes, by increasing homeowners' borrowing power."
- The announcement follows the White House's early-August unveiling of its Clean Power Plan, which aims to cut carbon emissions by 32% by 2030, relative to 2005 levels. Solar still only accounts for less than 1% of U.S. electricity output; renewable sources collectively account for 13%, with hydro responsible for half of the total and wind about a third.
- It also follows the launch of Google's Project Sunroof, which (with the help of satellite imagery) provides would-be home solar installers with advise on installation size and financing options, among other things.
- Major gainers include First Solar (FSLR +8.4%), JinkoSolar (JKS +27.1%), Trina (TSL +17.2%), Canadian Solar (CSIQ +13.2%), SunPower (SPWR +6.6%), JA Solar (JASO +10.6%), China Sunergy (CSUN +12.3%), Yingli (YGE +7.3%), SolarEdge (SEDG +6.9%), and Daqo (DQ +5.9%).
- Cowen has launched coverage on Canadian Solar with an Outperform rating and $28.50 target. Meanwhile, First Solar thin-film module rival TSMC announced today it's shuttering its solar manufacturing ops, while citing a lack of scale/competitiveness.
Wed, Aug. 19, 1:31 PM
- Solar stocks are underperforming (TAN -4%) as both oil and energy stocks post big losses following an unexpected rise in crude inventories, and Canadian Solar (CSIQ -20%) tumbles in the wake of a Q2 beat and light Q3 guidance. The Nasdaq is down 0.7%, and the S&P 0.8%.
- Major decliners include David Einhorn/Stephen Mandel favorite SunEdison (SUNE -7.2%), which has nosedived since posting Q2 numbers on Aug. 6, and is a day removed from pricing a $650M convertible stock offering. Also selling off: Inverter/power optimizer maker SolarEdge (SEDG -9.6%), which tumbled last week in spite of an FQ4 beat and strong FQ1 guidance, and China's Trina (TSL -7.8%), which rose slightly yesterday following a Q2 beat and full-year guidance hike.
- Other casualties include prominent U.S. names First Solar (FSLR -4.7%) and SolarCity (SCTY -3.7%), Chinese plays JinkoSolar (JKS -7.9%) and JA Solar (JASO -3.5%), and SunEdison YieldCos TerraForm Power (TERP -3.2%) and TerraForm Global (GLBL -3.6%).
- Roth's Philip Shen is defending both Canadian and solar YieldCos. "Although yieldcos are no longer in vogue—for now —we fundamentally believe the quality of solar asset cash flows are high and that there is tremendous amount of growth ahead ... [Canadian's] management indicated that its yieldco launch remains on track for a YE'15 or early 2016 launch, and the confidential filing could occur soon ... Hypothetically, if CSIQ were not successful in launching its yieldco, the company would still be able to recycle its capital by selling its assets. Management believes this could drive $1bn of revenue in 2015, and we estimate this could represent ~$2.50 of EPS. "
- Canaccord's Jonathan Dorsheimer: "We continue to believe that Canadian Solar's module business will experience a tightening supply/demand during this bullish end-of-year adoption cycle, which should benefit CSIQ's core operations. Although recent YieldCo and solar volatility have had dramatic valuation impacts, we believe the fundamental PV growth story is still intact."
Wed, Aug. 12, 12:01 PM
- Solar stocks are among the larger decliners as equities sell off against a backdrop of Chinese macro fears (heightened by the PBOC's decision to devalue the yuan), lower energy/commodity prices, and a general flight to safety. The Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN -2.8%) has made fresh 52-week lows, and is now down 36% from an April peak of $50.00.
- Chinese and non-Chinese names are getting hit alike. Major decliners include SolarCity (SCTY -3.9%), Canadian Solar (CSIQ -5.6%), Enphase (ENPH -8.6%), JinkoSolar (JKS -6.8%), Yingli (YGE -4.8%), China Sunergy (CSUN -4.9%), Sky Solar (SKYS -4.3%), and SunEdison's TerraForm Global (GLBL -7.1%) YieldCo.
- Vivint Solar (VSLR -8.7%) is tumbling after posting mixed Q2 results (revenue beat, EPS missed). Installations rose 78% Y/Y to 66MW (in-line with guidance of 63MW-67MW), and bookings grew 40% to 73MW. In a sign investors have concerns SunEdison's (SUNE +1.5%) pending acquisition of Vivint won't close (or at least under its current terms), Vivint trades at a 22% discount to SunEdison's buyout price, even after factoring a lower stock payout to account for SunEdison's recent plunge.
- Speaking of which, Deutsche's Vishal Shah has launched a spirited defense of SunEdison today, arguing the David Einhorn favorite has plenty of options to bolster shares and/or improve its capital structure.
- Shah: "First, some of the senior mgmt team members can personally buyback some stock. Second, it appears that more aggressive growth plans are a problem for the stock ... The shares would react positively if mgmt slashed devco guidance to 3GW. Third, mgmt can sell some backlog and generate cash ... Fourth, mgmt can get capital infusion from a large strategic investor that has interest in infrastructure projects ... Fifth, mgmt can restructure the IDR structure at TERP so that the drop downs in 2016 are more accretive. Sixth, mgmt could arrange additional warehouse financing ... Finally, even though it looks like a long shot, SUNE could reach an agreement to walk away from the VSLR transaction."
- SunEdison remains down 40% from where it traded before posting mixed Q2 results and (thanks to an aggressive project construction pace) op. cash flow of -$621M.
- Update (4:00PM ET): Solar stocks reversed course as markets rebounded. TAN has closed up 1%.
Wed, Aug. 5, 11:54 AM
- Solar stocks are posting outsized gains after First Solar (up 17.3%) beat Q2 estimates, offered above-consensus 2015 guidance, and reported improving margins/cost efficiencies.
- Also: Solar microinverter maker Enphase (up 11%) has jumped in spite of providing soft Q3 guidance to go with mixed Q2 results. Low pre-earnings expectations are helping out.
- In addition to SunPower, SunEdison, and SolarCity (previously covered), gainers include Canadian Solar (CSIQ +7%), Trina (TSL +5.1%), ReneSola (SOL +5.5%), JinkoSolar (JKS +6%), China Sunergy (CSUN +6%), TerraForm Power (TERP +3.1%), and First Solar/SunPower solar project YieldCo 8point3 Energy (CAFD +4.8%).
- The Guggenheim Solar ETF (NYSEARCA:TAN) is up strongly a day after closing just $0.31 away from a 7-month low of $33.62.
Thu, Jul. 9, 1:28 PM
- Down sharply yesterday, solar stocks (TAN +5.3%) are among today's standouts after Chinese regulators announced a fresh round of aggressive measures aimed at halting a local market crash. Among them: Investors holding 5%+ stakes aren't allowed to sell shares for six months.
- Like their Web/mobile peers, Chinese solar names are surging: Big gainers include Yingli (YGE +5.3%), Daqo (DQ +7.1%), Trina (TSL +5.6%), JA Solar (JASO +10.1%), China Sunergy (CSUN +12.4%), JinkoSolar (JKS +5.2%), Sky Solar (SKYS +10.7%), and ReneSola (SOL +4.8%).
- Major non-Chinese gainers include Canadian Solar (CSIQ +4.1%), Solar3D (SLTD +11.3%), SolarEdge (SEDG +4.4%), and Vivint (VSLR +7.1%).
- Some news: 1) The U.S. DOC has decided to maintain anti-dumping tariffs on Chinese module imports, while slightly modifying its rates. Yingli says it will now have a 21.7% combined rate, down from a 2012 level of 29.2% and the lowest among peers. 2) SolarEdge has struck a deal with #2 U.S. residential solar installer SunRun (RUN - about to go public) to be SunRun's "preferred supplier of optimized inverter solutions." SolarEdge also sells to SolarCity and Vivint. 3) Sky Solar has obtained an $85M loan to finance a Uruguay solar project.
- Update (1:50PM ET): Yingli is now down 4.9%, thanks to a report stating the company has halted production after talks with creditors broke down.
Wed, Jul. 8, 2:46 PM
- Solar stocks are seeing big losses once more today. The Nasdaq is down 1.7%, the S&P is down 1.5%, and worries about the economic effects of a Chinese stock market crash are easy to find. Those less concerned make note of China's high savings rate, and the relatively low portion of Chinese household assets invested in equities.
- The Guggenheim Solar ETF (NYSEARCA:TAN) is now down 32% from its April peak, and roughly flat on the year.
- Chinese firms Trina (TSL -5.7%), JinkoSolar (JKS -8.9%), Yingli (YGE -4.9%), ReneSola (SOL -6%) China Sunergy (CSUN -5.1%), and Daqo (DQ -4.2%) are adding to yesterday's losses.
- Major non-Chinese decliners include Canadian Solar (CSIQ -7%), SolarEdge (SEDG -9.9%), Vivint (VSLR -4.4%), and Solar3D (SLTD -8.3%). Enphase is off sharply following a JPMorgan downgrade. SolarEdge and Solar3D are now respectively down 23% and 18% on the week.
Tue, Jul. 7, 1:32 PM
- While most major North American solar names are down moderately or trading higher, Chinese firms are seeing heavy losses as a domestic rout in equities continues. Many Chinese Web and mobile stocks are seeing similar drops; margin calls and general panic selling appear to be contributing.
- Major decliners include Trina (TSL -9.1%), Yingli (YGE -10.2%), Daqo (DQ -14.6%), China Sunergy (CSUN -13.8%), JA Solar (JASO -7.7%), JinkoSolar (JKS -7%), and ReneSola (SOL -6.6%).
- Solar ETFs have felt the impact. TAN -2.7%. KWT -4%.
- Yesterday: Solar stocks off sharply after oil plunge, Greek "no" vote, Chinese tech selloff
Mon, Jul. 6, 12:41 PM
- While the demand link continues to be argued, the stock price link remains real: WTI crude is down 5% to $54.10/barrel, and many solar stocks are posting outsized losses on a day the Nasdaq is off 0.4%. The Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN -4.9%) is at its lowest levels since February.
- The selloff comes after Greek voters soundly rejected austerity measures demanded by creditors. It also coincides with major losses for Chinese tech stocks, many of which have already been clobbered over the last month.
- Chinese solar plays JinkoSolar (JKS -5.8%), Daqo (DQ -6.1%), Yingli (YGE -6.5%), and JA Solar (JASO -7.4%) are down sharply. Also seeing large declines: Canadian Solar (CSIQ -4.3%), Sky Solar (SKYS -11.2%), SolarEdge (SEDG -5.9%), Solar3D (SLTD -7.7%), Vivint (VSLR -8%), and Enphase (ENPH -4.2%).
- Last Wednesday: Solar stocks drop as oil falls; Deutsche defends
- Update: Also of interest: Canada's International Trade Tribunal has joined U.S. and EU regulators in placing anti-dumping tariffs on Chinese solar module exports. However, the move was expected, and Canada accounts for a small % of global solar demand. CSIQ has responded to the decision by noting "most of our modules supplied to Canada markets are produced locally."
Wed, Jul. 1, 1:27 PM
- Though many have argued the link between oil prices and solar demand is limited (given oil accounts for a small % of global electricity output), solar stocks are once more dropping in tandem with a selloff in crude prices - WTI crude is down 3.6% to $57.35/barrel after the EIA reported U.S. oil inventories rose by 2.4M barrels last week, their first weekly increase since April.
- Notable decliners include Canadian Solar (CSIQ -3.6%), SolarCity (SCTY -2%), Yingli (YGE -2.4%), Vivint (VSLR -3%), Sky Solar (SKYS -2.8%), and Solar3D (SLTD -5.3%). The Nasdaq is up 0.4%.
- Deutsche's Vishal Shah is once more defending the group (previous), arguing solar project YieldCos remain "a significant growth catalyst for the solar and broader renewable sector."
- Shah adds YieldCos are lowering the cost of capital for renewable firms, and that existing YieldCos (TERP, CAFD) have strong long-term visibility thanks to large backlogs of projects they carry the right of first offer for (via their parent companies). Canadian Solar is among the firms planning to launch a YieldCo soon.
- ETFs: TAN, KWT
- 2 days ago: Solar stocks hit hard amid market selloff
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