The Devil Is In The Details Of Solar Securitization
Troy Jensen • 10 Comments
Troy Jensen • 10 Comments
Wed, Mar. 23, 3:05 PM
- Like many other energy names, solar stocks are underperforming (TAN -3.8%) on a day oil prices are giving back some of their recent gains. WTI crude is down 4.3% to $39.69/barrel, and Brent crude down 3.2% to $40.45/barrel. The S&P is down 0.6%, and the Nasdaq down 1%.
- SunEdison (down 12.1%) is among the casualties, as liquidity/solvency fears continue surrounding the beaten-up solar/wind project developer. SunEdison yieldcos TerraForm Power (TERP -3.3%) and TerraForm Global (GLBL -4.7%) are also off.
- SolarCity (SCTY -9.6%), which yesterday afternoon announced the closing of a $131M tax equity solar project fund, is also off sharply. Other notable decliners include SunPower (SPWR -7.4%), First Solar (FSLR -4%), Canadian Solar (CSIQ -4.2%), Sunrun (RUN -4.3%), Enphase (ENPH -6.5%), Daqo (DQ -5%), JinkoSolar (JKS -5.9%), Sky Solar (SKYS -11.1%), and former SunEdison acquisition target Vivint Solar (VSLR -11.3%).
Tue, Feb. 16, 2:36 PM
- Solar stocks are among the standouts (TAN +6.4%) as the Nasdaq rises 2.1% and the S&P 1.6%. The gains come after Canadian Solar (up 16.6%) hiked its Q4 sales, module shipment, and gross margin guidance.
- SunEdison (SUNE +20.6%), clobbered last week amid a temporary asset sale restraining order that further stoked bankruptcy fears, is rebounding. The gains come in spite of a downgrade to Neutral from BofA/Merrill's Krish Sankar, who's worried about a mixture of financing, legal, and execution issues.
- Yingli (YGE +15.9%), another company that has seen its share of solvency fears, is also up strongly. Other big gainers include SunPower (SPWR +11.2%), SolarCity (SCTY +6.2%), JinkoSolar (JKS +11.6%), Trina (TSL +7.5%), 8point3 Energy (CAFD +8.4%), Enphase (ENPH +7.7%), Daqo (DQ +7.2%), JA Solar (JASO +6.9%), Sky Solar (SKYS +7.5%), and SunEdison acquisition target Vivint Solar (VSLR +9.5%).
- Five days ago: Solar stocks hammered again; SunEdison tumbles after lawsuit
Thu, Feb. 11, 2:12 PM
- The Nasdaq is down 1%, the S&P is down 1.7%, and energy stocks are under pressure as WTI crude falls below $27/barrel. All of that has spelled more pain for solar stocks - the Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN -5.6%) is at levels last seen in 2013.
- The selloff comes a day after SolarCity plummeted in response to a Q4 installation miss and soft Q1 guidance - SolarCity (down 14.4%) is adding to its losses today following a Barclays downgrade, as is rival Sunrun (down 15.2%).
- Meanwhile, hard-luck SunEdison (SUNE -13.8%) is off sharply today following news shareholders of hydro/wind power developer Latin American Power have sued the company, stating they need a court order to protect SunEdison's assets while they pursue a $150M arbitration claim. SunEdison struck a deal to buy Latin American Power in May, but the agreement was later terminated.
- SunEdison acquisition target Vivint Solar (VSLR -12.1%) and SunEdison yieldco TerraForm Power (TERP -6.4%) are also among today's casualties, Other major solar decliners: SunPower (SPWR -6.2%), Canadian Solar (CSIQ -7.6%), Enphase (ENPH -6.1%), and Solar3D (SLTD -5.7%).
Tue, Jan. 19, 3:21 PM
- The Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN -2.5%) has made fresh 52-week lows on another rough day for energy stocks in general. WTI crude is down 3.8% to $28.31/barrel - downbeat IEA commentary and concerns about the end of Iranian sanctions could be weighing. The S&P is down 0.5%, and the Nasdaq 0.9%.
- A handful of names are seeing much bigger losses than TAN's. The group includes SolarCity (SCTY -13.1%), SunEdison (SUNE -9.3%), SunEdison yieldco TerraForm Power (TERP -8.4%), SunEdison acquisition target Vivint (VSLR -16.4%), Yingli (YGE -6.9%), Sunrun (RUN -4.5%), and 8point3 Energy (CAFD -5.3%).
- SunEdison opened higher after announcing it had closed the second part of a deal involving the purchase and subsequent sale of a 33% stake in a 567MW solar plant portfolio, but quickly gave back its gains. TerraForm has been downgraded to Neutral by BofA/Merrill. Sunrun has announced the closing of $250M worth of credit facilities to finance U.S. residential solar installations.
- A week ago: Solar stocks fall as energy stocks sell off, oil trades near $30/barrel
Thu, Jan. 7, 2:32 PM
- Solar stocks are among the biggest casualties as the Nasdaq drops 2.8% and markets generally go into risk-off mode. After soaring last month in response to U.S. renewable tax credit extensions, the Guggenheim Solar ETF (NYSEARCA:TAN) is now just slightly over $2 above a 52-week low of $25.25.
- SunEdison (down 33%) is the biggest decliner in the group, after having announced a set of dilutive debt offerings and exchange transactions. Canadian Solar (CSIQ -14.4%), JinkoSolar (JKS -14.6%), Solar3D (SLTD -11.2%), Sky Solar (SKYS -16.6%), and RGS Energy (RGSE -10.4%) are also seeing double-digit losses.
- Other major decliners: SolarCity (SCTY -6.8%), First Solar (FSLR -5.5%), SunPower (SPWR -9.9%), Enphase (ENPH -6%), SolarEdge (SEDG -5.3%), TerraForm Power (TERP -8.2%), TerraForm Global (GLBL -5.7%), and JA Solar (JASO -5.3%).
Dec. 21, 2015, 11:11 AM
- The Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN +2.1%) is now up 11% since Congress agreed six days ago to a budget compromise (officially passed on Friday) that involved extending the solar investment tax credit (ITC) and wind production tax credit (PTC). Today's gains come with the Nasdaq up 0.6%.
- U.S. solar stocks naturally continue headlining the list of gainers. The list includes SunPower (SPWR +3.4%), First Solar (FSLR +3.3%), Sunrun (RUN +6.9%), Enphase (ENPH +8%), 8point3 Energy (CAFD +4.1%), RGS Energy (RGSE +19.6%), and Solar3D (SLTD +4.5%).
- Other winners include JinkoSolar (JKS +4.7%), ReneSola (SOL +8%), Yingli (YGE +3.5%), China Sunergy (CSUN +4.2%), TerraForm Global (GLBL +3.2%), and SolarEdge (SEDG +3.2%), the last of which depends heavily on the U.S. residential market.
- Citing (what else?) the tax credit extensions, Morgan Stanley's Stephen Byrd has respectively hiked his SolarCity (SCTY -0.3%), First Solar, SunPower, and Sunrun targets by $18, $2, $2, and $5 to $104, $70, $43, and $28. Bernstein and KeyBanc respectively upgraded SolarCity and Sunrun last Thursday.
Dec. 18, 2015, 2:43 PM
- The Nasdaq is down 1.1% and the S&P 1.2%, but solar stocks are once more higher (TAN +1.6%) after the House and Senate officially passed multi-year extensions for the solar investment tax credit (ITC) and wind production tax credit (PTC). The group skyrocketed on Wednesday after Congressional Republicans gave their support to a budget compromise that featured the extensions.
- Notable gainers include SunEdison (SUNE +4.3%), Vivint (VSLR +3.7%), Trina (TSL +4.2%), Sunrun (RUN +7.2%), TerraForm Power (TERP +1.6%), TerraForm Global (GLBL +7.4%), Solar3D (SLTD +6%), ReneSola (SOL +5.6%), and RGS Energy (RGSE +7.3%). RGS, a microcap, could be benefiting from news it has signed a letter of intent for a $5M loan facility.
- SolarCity (SCTY +1.6%) is up moderately after starting the day lower thanks to fresh bearish remarks from Jim Chanos. Canadian Solar (CSIQ +3.1%) is higher after announcing it's partnering with Southern Co. on a new 200MW project. Daqo (DQ +5.5%) is rallying following bullish coverage from Northland Securities.
Dec. 16, 2015, 9:52 AM
- Solar stocks are flying higher (TAN +6.4%) after House Republicans unveiled (as part of a compromise with Democrats that involved lifting a U.S. oil export ban) that would keep the solar investment tax credit (ITC, has been set to expire at the end of 2016) at 30% through 2019, before being phased down through 2022.
- In addition, the wind production tax credit (PTC) would be extended through 2020, albeit with a phase-down from a current level of 2.3 cents per kWh that would start in 2017.
- U.S. solar firms are naturally among the biggest gainers: The group includes SolarCity (SCTY +24.6%), SunEdison (SUNE +17%), First Solar (FSLR +8.5%), SunPower (SPWR +14.3%), Sunrun (RUN +23.1%), TerraForm Power (TERP +8.3%), 8point3 Energy (CAFD +5.6%), Solar3D (SLTD +4.6%), and RGS Energy (RGSE +6.9%). SunEdison/TerraForm also have healthy wind exposure. Enphase (ENPH +29.1%) is soaring on the news and a Roth upgrade to Buy.
- Israel's SolarEdge (SEDG +14.4%), which has strong exposure to U.S. installers, is also surging. Other winners include Canadian Solar (CSIQ +8.4%), Trina (TSL +4.9%), JinkoSolar (JKS +7.3%), JA Solar (JASO +3.1%), China Sunergy (CSUN +3.8%), and TerraForm Global (GLBL +5.6%). JA Solar has also been upgraded to Buy by Roth.
Dec. 14, 2015, 1:41 PM
- Solar stocks are posting big gains (TAN +4.8%) on a quiet day for equities after representatives of 195 countries (including the U.S. and major developing nations such as China and India) reached a deal in Paris to curb greenhouse gas emissions. Coal stocks are going in the opposite direction.
- Also: 1) Oil prices are bouncing after trading near multi-year lows earlier today. WTI crude is up 2.2% to $36.40/barrel. 2) Trina Solar (up 11.4%) has received a preliminary going-private offer at a 21.5% premium to Friday's close.
- U.S. firms SolarCity (SCTY +8.4%), Sunrun (RUN +13.4%), TerraForm Power (TERP +8%), and RGS Energy (RGSE +25%) are among the standouts. Other U.S. gainers include First Solar (FSLR +4.6%), SunPower (SPWR +6.5%) and Vivint (VSLR +2.8%). First Solar tumbled last week in response to its 2016 guidance; SunPower was hit by a $400M convertible offering.
- Among non-U.S. names, gainers include Canadian Solar (CSIQ +4.4%), Yingli (YGE +2.9%), ReneSola (SOL +3.8%), and China Sunergy (CSUN +3.9%). SolarEdge (SEDG +4.6%), based in Israel but with strong U.S. exposure, is also doing well.
- Update: Also possibly helping the group: Congressional Democrats are reportedly open to a deal to lift an oil-export ban in exchange for extending solar and wind tax credits.
Dec. 3, 2015, 3:02 PM
- The Nasdaq is down 1.7% and the S&P 1.4%, but many solar names still have healthy gains for the day. A rally in oil prices ahead of a Friday OPEC meeting (WTI crude is up 2.9% to $41.10/barrel) could be helping, as might hopes for a new emissions-reduction agreement at the Paris climate conference.
- Heavily-shorted SolarCity (SCTY +3%) is adding to its big Tuesday/Wednesday gains. Beaten-down SunEdison (SUNE +5.3%) is also higher, as are SunPower (SPWR +3.3%), Trina (TSL +4.1%), ReneSola (SOL +3%), Enphase (ENPH +5.4%), and Sunrun (RUN +6.5%).
- ETFs: TAN, KWT
Nov. 17, 2015, 3:28 PM
- SunEdison is down 33% as fears about the solar/wind project developer's balance sheet and cash flow profile continue unabated, and 13F filings indicate many hedge funds pared or liquidated their positions in Q3.
- The Guggenheim Solar ETF (TAN -4.8%) has fallen towards $26; the 52-week low (set in September) is $25.25. The Nasdaq and S&P are down modestly.
- Aside from SunEdison and its YieldCos, notable decliners include Canadian Solar (CSIQ -6.7%), SunPower (SPWR -7.5%), Enphase (ENPH -11.1%), SolarEdge (SEDG -7.7%), Daqo (DQ -4.3%), and Sunrun (RUN -4.9%). All but Daqo have strong North American exposure.
- SolarCity (SCTY -7.7%) is also off sharply, though Elon Musk has disclosed fresh purchases over the last few days. JA Solar (JASO -2.6%) is lower in spite of posting a Q3 beat and issuing solid Q4 shipment guidance.
Nov. 11, 2015, 1:46 PM
- Markets continue to become more risk-averse towards two once-high-flying industries: Solar stocks are adding to the Tuesday losses seen following SunEdison and Canadian Solar's earnings (TAN -2.5%), and 3D printing stocks are taking another leg lower after dropping yesterday in the wake of ExOne's results/guidance. The Nasdaq and S&P are nearly flat.
- Solar decliners: SunEdison (SUNE -15.7%), SolarCity (SCTY -3.9%), SunPower (SPWR -3.5%), SolarEdge (SEDG -13.1%), Vivint (VSLR -10.8%), TerraForm Power (TERP -4%), TerraForm Global (GLBL -4.6%), Sunrun (RUN -2.9%), and 8point3 Energy (CAFD -4.4%). SunEdison, SolarCity, SolarEdge, and TerraForm Power have made new 52-week lows.
- 3D printing decliners: 3D Systems (DDD -6.1%), Stratasys (SSYS -4.7%), ExOne (XONE -5.6%), and Voxeljet (VJET -3.9%). 3D and Stratasys have made new 52-week lows.
- UBS has cut its SunEdison target by $3 to $6. Among other things, it attributes SunEdison's post-earning nosedive to lower-than-expected margins on retained projects, management's plans to push ahead with the Vivint acquisition, and LAP Holdings' plans to seek at least $150M in damages following SunEdison's cancelled acquisition of the company.
- RBC (target cut by $4 to $20) has joined the ranks of firms defending SunEdison (previous), arguing its recent decisions to cut project construction guidance, lower spending, and sell a greater portion of its projects to third parties make sense. It sees the company "progressing towards sustainable growth," while cautioning shares will remain volatile in the near-term. SunEdison is down 34% over the last two days.
Nov. 10, 2015, 11:14 AM
- SunEdison (SUNE -18.9%) has plunged to new multi-year lows after posting mixed Q3 results, cutting its full-year cash available for distribution (CAFD) guidance, and narrowing its full-year project delivery guidance. Canadian Solar (CSIQ -6.5%) has gone south in spite of beating estimates and providing above-consensus Q4 guidance.
- Solar peers are also off - the Guggenheim Solar ETF (NYSEARCA:TAN) is at its lowest levels since early October. U.S. decliners include First Solar (FSLR -6.2%), SolarCity (SCTY -6%), SunPower (SPWR -6.3%), Enphase (ENPH -8.1%), Solar3D (SLTD -4.6%), SunEdison's TerraForm Power (TERP -13.2%) YieldCo, and SunEdison acquisition target Vivint (VSLR -3.9%).
- International decliners include Chinese plays Trina (TSL -5.7%), ReneSola (SOL -7.1%), JinkoSolar (JKS -9.2%), and JA Solar (JASO -5.3%), as well as Israel's SolarEdge (SEDG -6.7%) and SunEdison's emerging markets-focused TerraForm Global (TERP -13.2%) YieldCo.
- “Right now I want the company to become more boring, Boring, and cash-flow generating," said embattled SunEdison CEO Ahmad Chatila on the Q3 earnings call. He reiterated SunEdison expects to build 3.3GW-3.7GW of projects in 2016; the company had once planned to build 4.5GW.
Oct. 27, 2015, 2:38 PM
- Solar stocks are getting hit hard (TAN -4.7%) as U.S. natural gas falls below $2/MMBtu for the first time since April 2012, WTI crude drops 1.8% to $43.19/barrel, and coal miners Consol Energy and Peabody Energy post disappointing earnings. Many energy stocks are also selling off.
- Beaten-down SunEdison (SUNE -10.4%) is among the biggest solar decliners. As are microinverter maker Enphase (ENPH -12.3%) and inverter/power optimizer maker SolarEdge (SEDG -8.3%). SunEdison is within $0.50 of a 52-week low of $6.56, and Enphase within $0.20 of a 52-week low of $3.42.
- Other decliners include SunEdison YieldCos TerraForm Power (TERP -6.2%) and TerraForm Global (GLBL -3.7%), SunEdison acquisition target Vivint (VSLR -5.5%), and Canadian Solar (CSIQ -4.8%), which yesterday jumped thanks to a Q3 guidance hike.
- Also on the casualty list are First Solar (FSLR -2.9%), SunPower (SPWR -3.9%), Yingli (YGE -6%), China Sunergy (CSUN -8.2%), and JinkoSolar (JKS -3.9%). SunPower's Q3 report arrives tomorrow, and First Solar's on Thursday.
Oct. 16, 2015, 2:30 PM
- After bouncing strongly from their late-September lows over the last two weeks (a rally in crude prices/energy stocks helped), solar stocks are among the laggards (TAN -2.4%) on a day the Nasdaq and S&P are nearly flat.
- U.S. firms SolarCity (SCTY -5.3%), SunEdison (SUNE -3.6%), Enphase (ENPH -6%), Sunrun (RUN -2.5%), and RGS Energy (RGSE -6.5%) are among the decliners. Others include SolarEdge (SEDG -4.6%), Trina (TSL -2.3%), JinkoSolar (JKS -2.3%), and SunEdison's TerraForm Global (GLBL -2%) YieldCo.
- SolarCity reports earnings on Oct. 29, and rival Sunrun on Nov. 12.
Oct. 2, 2015, 4:03 PM
- Like various other names clobbered in recent weeks as markets went into risk-off mode, solar stocks posted outsized gains today, with the Guggenheim Solar ETF (NYSEARCA:TAN) more than erasing its big Monday losses. A rally in energy stocks (aided by higher crude prices) likely helped out. The Nasdaq rose 1.7%, and the S&P 1.4%.
- SunEdison (SUNE +14.7%), which continues trading at a fraction of its June/July highs thanks to debt/cash flow fears and apparent hedge fund selling, was a standout. SolarCity (SCTY +7.3%), which made a high-efficiency panel announcement earlier today, also fared quite well, as did SunEdison buyout target Vivint (VSLR +10.8%), SunEdison YieldCo TerraForm Power (TERP +12.9%), and fellow North American firms Canadian Solar (CSIQ +12.5%), First Solar (FSLR +6.5%), SunPower (SPWR +5.8%), and Enphase (ENPH +11.4%).
- In addition to Daqo, ReneSola, and Yingli (previously covered), Chinese winners included JinkoSolar (JKS +11.6%), Trina (TSL +6.7%), and JA Solar (JASO +5.7%).
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