Lincoln National CorporationNYSE
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  • Today, 10:23 AM
    • An improved outlook for interest rates (higher) and the hope for an easing of the DOL's new fiduciary rule in a Trump administration mean it's time to shift money into the life insurance sector, says RBC's Mark Dwelle.
    • P&C insurers face weak pricing expectations, so the focus will be on accident-year margin pressure and the implications for reserves.
    • Alongside an earlier-reported downgrade of Aflac (NYSE:AFL) to Underperform (stock is now down 2.3%), he cuts RLI Corp. (RLI -5.2%) to Underperform as well.
    • Downgraded to Sector Perform are Unum (UNM -1.6%) and Selective Insurance (SIGI -4.6%).
    • Favored pick in P&C is Chubb (CB -0.2%) as it's a "top underwriter" regardless of pricing, and has a clean balance sheet and attractive valuation.
    • Upgraded to Outperform are Hartford (HIG +0.5%) and Lincoln National (LNC -0.1%), with LNC a Top Pick thanks to its leverage to higher rates and eased DOL rule.
    • Top value ideas are AIG (AIG -0.1%)  and Voya Financial (VOYA +0.5%). Top growth ideas: Arch (ACGL +0.6%), Principal Financial (PFG -1.1%). Top small-cap picks: American Equity (AEL +3.9%), Kinsale Capital (KNSL +1.1%). Top turnaround/self-help picks: MetLife (MET -0.6%), XL Group (XL -0.1%). Top defensive play: Marsh & McLennan (MMC).
    • Source: Bloomberg
    | Today, 10:23 AM
  • Yesterday, 12:10 PM
    • November monthly performance was: +5.24%
    • AUM of $11.5B
    • 52-week performance vs. the S&P 500 is: +5%
    • No dividends were paid in November
    • Top 10 Holdings as of 11/30/2016: NVIDIA Corp (NVDA): 0.29628%, Freeport-McMoRan Inc (FCX): 0.28589%, KeyCorp (KEY): 0.27006%, Comerica Inc (CMA): 0.26528%, Regions Financial Corp (RF): 0.26347%, Lincoln National Corp (LNC): 0.26105%, Harman International Industries Inc (HAR): 0.2585%, Citizens Financial Group Inc (CFG): 0.25834%, Bank of America Corporation (BAC): 0.25666%, Quanta Services Inc (PWR): 0.25473%
    | Yesterday, 12:10 PM
  • Mon, Dec. 5, 12:40 PM
    • The FRBNY's William Dudley isn't concerned about the post-election jump in rates at the long end of the curve, and says the Fed is about to start following suit at the short end.
    • Even the dovish Charles Evans from the Chicago Fed admits inflation is getting closer to the central bank's target, and the labor market is close to full employment.
    • The 10-year Treasury yield had moved as high as 2.45%, but has pulled back to 2.40%, still up 1.5 basis points on the session.
    • On the regulatory front, Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo on Friday set himself up as the chief defender of the current bank regulatory regime, but whether his voice will be heard is a different story given the incoming administration, which looks to be staffed with those favoring a far lighter regulatory hand.
    • Financial sector stocks today are about doubling the S&P 500's 0.5% advance.
    • TBTF banks: Bank of America (BAC +2.3%), Citigroup (C +1.8%), JPMorgan (JPM +1.3%), Wells Fargo (WFC +0.9%), Goldman Sachs (GS +1.7%), Morgan Stanley (MS +0.4%)
    • Regional lenders: U.S. Bancorp (USB +0.7%), PNC Financial (PNC +0.4%), KeyCorp (KEY -0.8%), Fifth Third (FITB +0.5%)
    • Insurers: MetLife (MET +0.3%), Lincoln National (LNC), AIG (AIG +0.2%)
    • Brokerage: Schwab (SCHW +0.9%), E*Trade (ETFC +0.9%)
    • Custodial banks: State Street (STT +0.5%), Northern Trust (NTRS +1%)
    • Private equity: Blackstone (BX +0.9%), KKR (KKR +1%)
    • Asset Management: BlackRock (BLK +0.1%), Franklin Resources (BEN +0.5%), Affiliated Managers (AMG +1.8%)
    | Mon, Dec. 5, 12:40 PM | 7 Comments
  • Fri, Dec. 2, 11:51 AM
    • The financial sector is taking a breather from its staggering post-election run, with a post-jobs report dip in rates a good enough excuse for satiated bulls to cash in some chips.
    • XLF -1%, KBE -0.7%, KRE -0.7%.
    • Individual issues: Bank of America (BAC -1.8%), Morgan Stanley (MS -1.2%), Citigroup (C -1.9%), M&T (MTB -1.1%), Flagstar (FBC -1.7%), Fifth Third (FITB -1.6%), PNC Financial (PNC -1.4%), Prudential (PRU -1.1%), Lincoln National (LNC -1.9%), Schwab (SCHW -2.1%), State Street (STT -1.8%)
    • No longer part of the financial sector as far as the GICS classification, REITs are enjoying the respite in rates. IYR +1.6%, VNQ +1.6%
    • Realty Income (O +4.1%), Vereit (VER +3%), Omega Healthcare (OHI +3.2%), Welltower (HCN +3.5%), HCP (HCP +2.7%), Universal Health (UHT +4.4%), W.P. Carey (WPC +2%), Lexington Realty (LXP +2.5%), Essex Property (ESS +1.2%), Aimco (AIV +1.5%), General Growth (GGP +2.6%), Brixmor (BRX +1.6%), Federal Realty (FRT +1.8%), Kimco (KIM +1.2%), Public Storage (PSA +1.4%), Life Storage (LSI +1.4%), Boston Properties (BXP +1.2%), Stag Industrial (STAG +2.4%).
    | Fri, Dec. 2, 11:51 AM | 22 Comments
  • Wed, Nov. 30, 11:45 AM
    • While the pick of ex-Goldmanite and Hollywood player Steven Mnuchin for Treasury Secretary can hardly be called "draining the swamp," Pantheon's Ian Shepherdson says it should make Wall Street happy.
    • In his first public comments after being selected, Mnuchin promised to "kill" swaths of Dodd-Frank.
    • Also making Wall Street (and other bankers/insurers/brokers) happy today is another big move higher in interest rates, with the 10-year Treasury yield up 10 basis points to 2.394%.
    • The S&P 500 is just marginally higher, but the KBE is ahead 1.9%, and the KRE 2%. XLF +1.35%
    • Bank of America (BAC +3.4%), Citigroup (C +1.9%), JPMorgan (JPM +1.5%), Wells Fargo (WFC +1.8%), Morgan Stanley (MS +2.1%), Goldman Sachs (GS +3.9%), U.S. Bancorp (USB +1%), PNC Financial (PNC +1.4%), KeyCorp (KEY +2.2%), Fifth Third (FITB +2.5%), Regions Financial (RF +2.9%), BB&T (BBT +2.4%), SunTrust (STI +2%)
    • MetLife (MET +2%), AIG (AIG +0.8%), Lincoln National (LNC +1.7%), Prudential (PRU +1.1%), Hartford (HIG +1.3%)
    | Wed, Nov. 30, 11:45 AM | 54 Comments
  • Mon, Nov. 14, 11:33 AM
    • The major averages are stuck in the red, but the XLF is up 2.2% and the KBE +3% as financial sector investors mull a world of higher interest rates and lowered regulation.
    • REITs continue to fall, but thanks to this fall's sector reclassification, those names are no longer in the financial indexes.
    • Regional banks: Regions Financial (RF +6.9%), New York Community (NYCB +2.9%), KeyCorp (KEY +3.1%), PNC Financial (PNC +2.4%), Fifth Third (FITB +4%), SunTrust (STI +3%), M&T (MTB +3.1%)
    • Insurers: MetLife (MET +2.2%), Lincoln (LNC +3.2%), AIG (AIG +2.1%), Hartford (HIG +2.3%), Travelers (TRV +1.4%)
    • Online brokerage: Schwab (SCHW +3.6%), Ameritrade (AMTD +2.5%)
    • Asset management: Franklin Resources (BEN +3.2%), Och-Ziff (OZM +4.5%), Invesco (IVZ +2.2%), T. Rowe Price (TROW +2.8%), BlackRock (BLK +0.4%)
    | Mon, Nov. 14, 11:33 AM | 8 Comments
  • Thu, Nov. 10, 12:32 PM
    • The regulatory regime will be "more constructive" under a President Trump, says management at the company's investor day.
    • Webcast and presentation slides
    • Of the post-election surge in interest rates, CIO Steve Goulart says he's a fan, and that the move is "favorable to us."
    • Ahead of today's meeting, the company announced a $3B buyback plan.
    • MET's 4.7% gain in this session puts the two-day advance at about 12% - the best two-day move for the stock since 2009.
    • Other insurers: Prudential (PRU +3.1%), Manulife (MFC +7.2%), Sun Life (SLF +8.3%), Lincoln Financial (LNC +2%), Primerica (PRI +10.6%), Voya (VOYA +6.2%), AIG (AIG +3.2%)
    | Thu, Nov. 10, 12:32 PM | 6 Comments
  • Wed, Nov. 9, 11:26 AM
    • The 10-year Treasury yield is up a whopping 10 basis points to 1.96%, surely a boon to yield-starved insurers. But for the larger players like MetLife (MET +5.2%), Prudential (PRU +4.2%), and AIG (AIG +1.6%), they may be able to look forward to end of their SIFI designations, and the boosted regulation and capital requirements that go with it (MetLife, of course, has already won a court case challenging its SIFI designation).
    • Trump is likely to nominate two or three new Fed governors, says Capital Alpha Partners' Ian Katz, who doesn't expect Janet Yellen to seek to stay on when her term as chairman expires in 2018. He doesn't expect this to happen right away, but look for a Trump Treasury to de-designate AIG and Prudential (and presumably drop the MetLife appeal).
    • Others enjoying the higher rates: Lincoln National (LNC +6.6%), Voya Financial (VOYA +5.2%), Primerica (PRI +10.4%)
    | Wed, Nov. 9, 11:26 AM
  • Thu, Nov. 3, 1:00 PM
    | Thu, Nov. 3, 1:00 PM
  • Thu, Nov. 3, 10:26 AM
    • MetLife (MET +2.5%), Prudential (PRU +3.5%), Lincoln National (LNC +6.7%), and AIG (AIG -4.5%) all reported after the bell last night, and the first three cruised past estimates, but AIG, not so much. AIG, of course, is more exposed to the P&C side of the industry, and results there are still in need of improvement.
    • Capital returns: AIG slowed repurchases during Q3, but boosted its buyback by $3B; Lincoln National lifted its dividend 16%, and bought back $200M of stock in Q3, with share float down 8% Y/Y; Prudential returned nearly $1B in dividends and buybacks.
    | Thu, Nov. 3, 10:26 AM
  • Wed, Nov. 2, 5:42 PM
    • Lincoln National (NYSE:LNC) declares $0.29/share quarterly dividend, 16% increase from prior dividend of $0.25.
    • Forward yield 2.39%
    • Payable Feb. 1; for shareholders of record Jan. 10; ex-div Jan. 6.
    | Wed, Nov. 2, 5:42 PM
  • Wed, Nov. 2, 4:59 PM
    • Lincoln National (NYSE:LNC): Q3 EPS of $1.89 beats by $0.27.
    • Revenue of $3.53B (-5.4% Y/Y) beats by $90M.
    • Press Release
    | Wed, Nov. 2, 4:59 PM
  • Tue, Nov. 1, 5:35 PM
  • Thu, Oct. 27, 10:51 AM
    • Rates are up across the globe again today, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield looking like it's ready for another assault on 2% - up 7 basis points on the session to 1.865%.
    • Alongside a sharp move lower in REITs, the utility sector (XLU -0.9%) is facing a rough go of it.
    • In the green though is the banking sector - (KBE +0.2%), (KRE +0.4%) - which has been awaiting a real move higher in rates for years. A big move on the long end while short rates hold (for now) is an added boost as it widens the yield curve.
    • Bank of America (BAC +0.4%), Citigroup (C +0.4%), JPMorgan (JPM +0.4%), Wells Fargo (WFC +0.5%), PNC Financial (PNC +0.5%), Fifth Third (FITB +0.9%), U.S. Bancorp (USB +1.2%), BB& T(BBT +0.7%)
    • Other high-yield beneficiaries include: MetLife (MET +0.9%), Lincoln Financial (LNC +1.3%), Schwab (SCHW +0.4%), Voya Financial (VOYA +0.9%).
    | Thu, Oct. 27, 10:51 AM | 2 Comments
  • Fri, Oct. 7, 7:44 AM
    • Alongside the Top Pick designation for VOYA is a $39 price target, suggesting 30% upside.
    • Started at Underperform is Aflac (NYSE:AFL), with analyst John Nadel noting recent outperformance, global low rates as pressuring investment income, and the growing spread between U.S. and Japanese rates as boosting hedging costs. The $75 price target compares to yesterday's close of $72.07.
    • Principal Financial Group (NYSE:PFG) also rates an Underperform, with Nadel noting more intense competition, exposure to FX and emerging markets volatility, and lower rates as maybe muting EPS growth and flatten margins.
    • MetLife (NYSE:MET), Prudential (NYSE:PRU), Lincoln National (NYSE:LNC), Reinsurance Group of America (NYSE:RGA), AIG, and Unum Group (NYSE:UNM),
    | Fri, Oct. 7, 7:44 AM | 9 Comments
  • Wed, Oct. 5, 3:27 PM
    • The continued rise in interest rates - the 10-year yield today breaching 1.70% - is giving additional fuel to the financial sector rally.
    • The XLF's 1.7% advance today puts it in a tie with the energy sector's XLE. The S&P 500 is up just 0.45%.
    • Banks, insurers, and brokers are all sharply ahead as investors envision the return of spread income. Even Wells Fargo (WFC +2.8%) is in the green - it's in fact atop the TBTF movers.
    • Other gainers: Goldman Sachs (GS +2.4%), Morgan Stanley (MS +1.7%), U.S. Bancorp (USB +2.1%), SunTrust (STI +2.5%), PNC Financial (PNC +1.3%), E*Trade (ETFC +2.1%), Voya Financial (VOYA +4.7%), Lincoln National (LNC +2.4%).
    | Wed, Oct. 5, 3:27 PM | 3 Comments