Lincoln National: Not As Cheap As It Once Was
Thu, Jul. 14, 2:43 PM
- Moving past the overseas macro, today's modest rally is being led by the financial sector (XLF +1%), particularly the banks (KRE +1.8%), (KBE +1.8%) after JPMorgan beat estimates.
- Also helping is another five basis points move upward in the 10-year Treasury yield to 1.53%. Among the yield-starved names applauding: Prudential (PRU +3.1%), Lincoln National (LNC +4.7%), E*Trade (ETFC +1.8%), Schwab (SCHW +1.9%), State Street (STT +2.5%), MetLife (MET +5.2%).
- The Dow is up 0.8%, the S&P 500 0.55%, and the Nasdaq 0.6%.
Tue, Jul. 5, 4:17 PM
- Interest rates continue to plummet, with U.S. government yields on the long end hitting new all-time lows. At least they remain positive (for now). Yields on French government paper are now negative all the way out to nine years, and Swiss 50-year bonds now sport yields below zero.
- Some hawkish words today from San Francisco Fed President Williams weren't enough to lift the share prices of yield-starved financials (XLF -1.5%).
- The SPDR KBW Bank ETF (KBE -3%), the SPDR KBW Regional Bank ETF (KRE -3%)
- Citigroup (C -3.3%), Morgan Stanley (MS -3.5%), Regions Financial (RF -3.9%), Fifth Third (FITB -4.2%), Capital One (COF -3.3%), Legg Mason (LM -3.3%), E*Trade (ETFC -3.2%), Schwab (SCHW -3%), MetLife (MET -4.2%), Prudential (PRU -3.2%), Lincoln (LNC -4.5%)
Fri, Jun. 24, 11:58 AM
- The Too Big To Fail lenders are naturally among the day's big losers following the U.K. vote to leave the EU, but losses in the financial sector are wide and deep as - among other things - interest rates look to be a lot lower for a lot longer.
- Among asset managers, Invesco (IVZ -10.8%) - with a sizable U.K. exposure - is faring about the worst. WisdomTree (WETF -7.8%) takes a hit as the yen is the solo currency surging against the dollar, reducing demand for its popular hedged Japan ETF.
- It's wait till next year (or even 2018 if you believe short-term rate futures markets) for rate hikes, meaning regional lenders can't celebrate their passing of the Fed stress tests last night. Regions (RF -7.8%), KeyCorp (KEY -6.4%), PNC Financial (PNC -5.5%), U.S. Bancorp (USB -4.2%), BB&T (BBT -5.1%).
- Even lower rates put even more pressure on the business models of the life insurers: MetLife (MET -8.8%), Prudential (PRU -7.7%), Lincoln National (LNC -9.9%), Voya (VOYA -7%). Online brokers too: E*Trade (ETFC -9.4%), Schwab (SCHW -9.5%).
- ETFs: KRE, KBE, IAT, KBWB, QABA, KBWR, KRU, KRS, WDRW, DPST
Fri, Jun. 3, 9:47 AM
- At the moment, it's looking like "wait till next year," for the higher interest rates much of the yield-starved financial sector has been waiting for. This morning's disappointing jobs numbers has traders quickly reversing bets on a rate hike this summer.
- Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield has crumbled to a two-month low of 1.70%.
- The XLF is down 1.9%, leading the S&P 500's 0.5% decline. The SPDR KBW Bank ETF (KBE -3.5%), the SPDR Regional Banking ETF (KRE -3.4%).
- Among the Too Big To Fail names, Bank of America (BAC -4.7%) and Citigroup (C -4.8%) are hardest hit. In regionals, Regions Financial (RF -4.4%), KeyCorp (KEY -4%), BB&T (BBT -3.3%), Fifth Third (FITB -4.4%).
- State Street (STT -3.5%), Northern Trust (NTRS -3.8%), Schwab (SCHW -5.4%), E*Trade (ETFC -5.8%), Ameritrade (AMTD -5.5%), MetLife (MET -3.6%), Prudential (PRU -3.2%), Lincoln Financial (LNC -4.1%)
- ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, KRE, UYG, VFH, KBE, IYF, BTO, IAT, IYG, FNCL, SEF, FXO, KBWB, QABA, KBWR, RYF, FINU, KRU, RWW, XLFS, FINZ, KRS, JHMF, WDRW, FAZZ, DPST, FNCF
Tue, May 24, 10:22 AM
- Stocks had already started the morning nicely in the green, but a blowout new home sales number for April has the homebuilders higher by about 2.5%, and the major indexes up by more than 1%.
- It's also got traders upping bets on a June rate hike, with another move to follow before year-end. That's boosting the yield-starved financials (XLF +1.5%), particularly the banks (KBE +2%).
- Among the financial movers: Bank of America (BAC +1.4%), JPMorgan (JPM +1.9%), Regions Financial (RF +1.8%), Fifth Third (FITB +2.1%), E*Trade (ETFC +2.9%), Interactive Brokers (IBKR +2.6%), MetLife (MET +1.8%), Prudential (PRU +2.2%), Lincoln National (LNC +1.8%), State Street (STT +2.1%)
Wed, May 18, 1:08 PM
- The meme of rates lower for longer has been stood on its head in the last 24 hours thanks to some decent economic data, but also surprisingly hawkish Fedspeak yesterday.
- The fixed-income world now believes remarks from the Fed's Williams and Lockhart yesterday may have been a preview of what we'll get when the real power speaks tomorrow - Fischer and Dudley - and then on May 27, when Janet Yellen gives a speech.
- Up at 2 ET are the minutes from the FOMC's April meeting.
- The 10-year yield is higher by five basis points to 1.82% and short-term rate markets have upped expectations for a Fed move this year.
- XLF +1.85%, KBE +3.15%, KRE +3.3%
- Bank of America (BAC +3.7%), Citigroup (C +4.2%), JPMorgan (JPM +3.2%), Wells Fargo (WFC +2.1%), U.S. Bancorp (USB +2.1%), Regions (RF +3.3%), KeyCorp (KEY +3.7%), PNC Financial (PNC +2.7%), Fifth Third (FITB +3.7%), Capital One (COF +1.9%), E*Trade (ETFC +4.4%), Schwab (SCHW +4.8%), MetLife (MET +2.9%), Prudential (PRU +3.4%), Lincoln National (LNC +4.2%), BNY Mellon (BK +2.3%), Northern Trust (NTRS +2.9%)
Thu, May 5, 10:48 AM
- Q1 income from operations of $314M or $1.25 per share vs. $352M and $1.35 one year ago. Expectations were for $1.49.
- Among the issues were $17M of lower than expected returns from alternative investments. This is consistent with the experience of other insurers this quarter.
- CEO Dennis Glass says the negative impact of certain Q1 items have begun to reverse, or are expected to do so this quarter.
- Book value per share excl. AOCI of $53.25 vs. $49.70 one year ago. LNC -4.3% to $40.79.
- Previously: Lincoln National misses by $0.24, misses on revenue (May 4)
- Previously: Poor alternative investment returns hurt MetLife results (May 4)
Thu, Apr. 7, 3:09 PM
- The 10-year Treasury yield at 1.69% has returned back to levels not seen since the panicky action in mid-February. And while the Fed has marked down its expectation of rate hikes this year to just two, short-term interest rate markets haven't even priced in one.
- This leaves those whose business model depends on riding the yield curve having to contend with not only a middling macro picture, but - once again - a rates lower for longer picture (although Jamie Dimon says his big fear is that markets aren't pricing in nearly enough in the way of higher rates).
- Citigroup (C -4.1%), Bank of America (BAC -3.3%), U.S. Bancorp (USB -2.8%), KeyCorp (KEY -3.4%), Regions Financial (RF -3.4%), BNY Mellon (BK -3.6%), E*Trade (ETFC -4.7%), Manulife (MFC -5.2%), Lincoln National (LNC -3.6%)
Thu, Feb. 11, 12:51 PM
- At the moment it's yet again looking like "wait till next year," for the sustained rise in interest rates the life insurers need to be able to earn some real money.
- Last night it was Prudential Financial (PRU -10.1%) joining MetLife (MET -4.7%) and Lincoln Financial (LNC -9.2%) in reporting a disappointing Q4, with investment results contributing $105M less this year that they did in Q4 of 2014.
- While still upbeat on the economic outlook, Janet Yellen is spending an uncomfortable amount of time in her Congressional testimony talking about negative interest rates, and a chart of Google searches for "negative interest rates" is through the roof.
- Manulife (MFC -10.3%), Sun Life (SLF -3%), Primerica (PRI -3.7%), Voya Financial (VOYA -4.6%)
- The 10-year Treasury yield is lower by 10 basis points to 1.6%, and short-term rate futures have begun pricing in a rate cut by the Fed.
Tue, Feb. 2, 12:52 PM
- Alongside energy's underperformance today is the financial sector (XLF -2.4%). The long-awaited hope of a sustained rise in interest rates appears dashed once again - at least so far this year.
- The 10-year Treasury yield is lower by seven basis points to 1.88% - a nine-month low - and short-term rate markets are now pricing is less than one 25 basis point rate hike for the remainder of the year.
- TBTFs: Bank of America (BAC -4.4%), Citigroup (C -4%), Goldman Sahcs (GS -4.4%)
- Regionals: U.S. Bancorp (USB -2.5%), Regions (RF -3.1%), SunTrust (STI -4%)
- Life insurers: MetLife (MET -3%), Prudential (PRU -3.2%), Lincoln Financial (LNC -3.7%)
- Online brokerage: Schwab (SCHW -4.2%), E*Trade (ETFC -3.8%), Ameritrade (AMTD -3.6%)
- ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, UYG, KRE, VFH, KBE, IYF, BTO, IAT, SEF, IYG, FXO, FNCL, KBWB, FINU, QABA, KRU, KBWR, RWW, RYF, FINZ, KRS, XLFS
Fri, Jan. 22, 11:33 AM
- It wasn't supposed to be like this for the life insurers in this new era of rising rates, but Lincoln National (NYSE:LNC) has lost more than 30% of its value over the last six months, including more than a 20% tumble just in 2016.
- Raymond James has had an Outperform rating on the stock during the carnage, and today upgrades to Strong Buy.
- The stock's higher by 2.7% on the session.
- See also: MetLife raised to Strong Buy at RayJay (Jan. 22)
Oct. 29, 2015, 3:33 PM
- Q3 income from operations of $289M or $1.11 per share vs. $414M and $1.56 one year ago. DIvidend is boosted to $0.25 per share.
- ROE from operations of 9.1% down from 13.4% a year ago. Book value (excl. AOCI) of $51.47 up from $48.23.
- Annuities segment income from operations of $259M up 6% Y/Y. Gross annuity deposits of $3.3B during quarter, contributing to net flows of $536M, 5% lower than a year ago.
- Retirement Plan Services segment operating income of $42M vs. $40M a year ago. Total deposits of $1.9B up 17% Y/Y. First-year sales of $706M up 65%.
- Life Insurance income from operations of $36M vs. $150M a year ago thanks to an unfavorable unlocking of $117M related to annual review of DAC and reserve assumptions. Excluding notable items, earnings gained 2% Y/Y.
- Group Protection operating earnings of $17M vs. $8M a year ago.
- Previously: Lincoln National misses by $0.39, beats on revenue (Oct. 28)
- LNC +1.1%
Sep. 1, 2015, 2:47 PM
- The dream of higher interest rates is looking a little fuzzier at the moment, as China leads markets lower again, and the Fed's Eric Rosengren suggests the conditions for a rate hike have still yet to be met. If Friday's payroll number disappoints - and there's at least some reason to expect that - a Sept. move looks off the table.
- The Financial SPDR (NYSEARCA:XLE) is down 3% vs. the S&P 500's 2.3%.
- Life insurers: MetLife (MET -3.7%), Prudential (PRU -3.9%), Lincoln National (LNC -4.2%)
- Money-center banks: Citigroup (C -4.4%), JPMorgan (JPM -3.6%), Wells Fargo (WFC -3.8%)
- Regional banks: U.S. Bancorp (USB -4.3%), Regions Financial (RF -4.1%), KeyCorp (KEY -4.3%), SunTrust (STI -4.2%), M&T Bank (MTB -4.2%)
- Online brokerage: E*Trade (ETFC -4.8%), Schwab (SCHW -3.8%), Ameritrade (AMTD -3.4%)
- ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, UYG, KRE, VFH, KBE, IYF, BTO, IAT, SEF, IYG, FXO, FNCL, KBWB, QABA, FINU, KBWR, KRU, RWW, RYF, FINZ, KRS
Aug. 13, 2015, 9:56 AM
Jun. 22, 2015, 2:44 PM
- Financials sunk along with Treasury yields last week, but are seeing a strong bounce today alongside a ten basis point gain in the 10-year yield to 2.36%.
- The XLF is up 1.6% versus the S&P 500's 0.7% gain.
- Helping U.S. equity markets is movement toward a Greek debt deal which sent Europe's Stoxx 50 hurtling 4% higher on the session. Yields tumbled in the periphery, but are sharply higher in Germany as well as the U.S.
- Yield-sensitive Bank of America (BAC +1.8%) is leading the TBTF names higher. In regionals: PNC Financial (PCN -0.2%), KeyCorp (KEY +1.2%), Regions Financial (RF +1.4%), SunTrust (STI +1.3%), First Niagara (FNFG +1.2%).
- Life insurers: MetLife (MET +2%), Prudential (PRU +1.6%), Lincoln FInancial (LNC +1.4%). Online brokers: E*Trade (ETFC +3.3%), Schwab (SCHW +2.2%), Ameritrade (AMTD +1.3%).
- ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, UYG, KRE, VFH, KBE, IYF, BTO, KIE, IAT, SEF, IYG, IAK, FXO, FNCL, KBWB, QABA, FINU, KBWR, KRU, RWW, RYF, KBWP, KBWI, FINZ, KRS
Jun. 9, 2015, 2:45 PM
- Yield-starved financial sector names were mercilessly punished to start 2015 as sharply falling interest rates in January again disappointed investors waiting for the return of some spread income.
- The rout in bond prices since, alongside what now seems the near-certainty of the beginning of Fed rate hikes in as soon as three months has helped turn things around, and the sector - as measured by the Financial Select SPDR (NYSEARCA:XLF) - is now in the green for the year, and trails the S&P 500 by just about 150 basis points.
- Among the notable movers today as the 10-year yield rises to another 2015 high: Bank of America (BAC +1.4%), Wells Fargo (WFC +1.2%), U.S. Bancorp (USB +1.4%), Regions Financial (RF +1.3%), Huntington Bancshares (HBAN +1.6%), KeyCorp (KEY +1.6%), PNC Financial (PNC +1.3%), M&T (MTB +1.1%), Bank of Hawaii (BOH +1.6%), First Horizon (FHN +1.2%), Lincoln National (LNC +1.1%), E*Trade (ETFC +0.9%)
- ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, UYG, KRE, VFH, KBE, IYF, BTO, IAT, SEF, IYG, FXO, FNCL, KBWB, FINU, QABA, KRU, KBWR, RWW, RYF, PSCF, FINZ, KRS
Lincoln National Corp. is a holding company, which operates multiple insurance and retirement businesses through its subsidiary companies. The company operates its business through four segments: Annuities, Retirement Plan Services, Life Insurance and Group Protection. The Annuities segment... More
Industry: Life Insurance
Country: United States
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