Still Time To Go Long On Lam Research
Alpha Gen Capital
Alpha Gen Capital
You Can Benefit From Lam's Exposure To Memory
Wed, Jul. 27, 4:08 PM
Tue, Jul. 26, 5:35 PM
- ABCO, ABX, ACGL, AEM, AF, AGNC, AHL, ALEX, ALSN, AMCC, AMGN, ANIK, ARRS, ASGN, AXTI, BKCC, CA, CAKE, CBI, CBT, CDE, CMO, CMPR, CMRE, CNMD, COHR, CRUS, CSGP, CVTI, CW, CYS, DLB, DRE, ECHO, EFX, ELY, EQY, ESRT, ESV, EXR, FB, FBHS, FOE, FORR, GG, GPRO, GRPN, HOLX, HT, IAC, IBKC, INFN, INT, ISBC, KEX, KGC, KIM, KNL, KNX, KONA, KRA, KS, LLNW, LM, LOGI, LPSN, LRCX, MAA, MANT, MAR, MCK, MEOH, MKSI, MMLP, MMSI, MN, MOH, MUR, NATI, NE, NEU, NGD, NOW, NTGR, NTRI, NVDQ, NXPI, O, OCN, OI, ORLY, OTEX, PEIX, PPC, PSA, PXD, QDEL, QEP, QTM, RCII, ROIC, RRTS, SCI, SFLY, SIGI, SPRT, SPSC, SSNC, SU, TER, TILE, TIS, TMK, TMST, TTEK, TTMI, TYL, UNM, VAR, VNDA, VNR, VRTX, WFM, WFT, WIRE, WLL, WRE, WSR, XL, XLNX
Mon, May 23, 7:00 PM
- Lam Research (NASDAQ:LRCX) has priced $2.4B in debt in connection with its acquisition of KLA-Tencor.
- The company priced $800M in 2.8% senior notes due 2021, $600M in 3.45% senior notes due 2023, and $1B in 3.9% senior notes due 2026.
- Net proceeds will partly finance the cash portion of the company's deal for KLA-Tencor. The sale isn't conditioned on the buyout, but if the acquisition isn't done by Dec. 30, Lam will be required to redeem the 2023 notes and 2026 notes (and will use the 2021 proceeds for general purposes).
- The offering is expected to close June 7. At least report, Lam had total debt of $2.39B and debt/equity of 42%.
- Now read The Market Will Catch Up To Lam Research »
Mon, May 23, 12:39 PM
- "Politics is now a topic in every client discussion," say David Kostin and team, and the nature of today's electorate nearly assures a close race, even though prediction markets currently assign a high probability of a Clinton victory.
- When uncertainty rises, consumer staples (NYSEARCA:XLP) typically outperforms, while tech (NYSEARCA:XLK) lags.
- Getting down to names, with protectionism and tax policy two key areas of debate, buy those stocks with high U.S. sales and high effective tax rates, and avoid those with high foreign sales and low tax rates.
- High U.S. sales and high tax rates (buy): Cardinal Health (NYSE:CAH), Fidelity National (NYSE:FIS), Discover (NYSE:DFS), AmerisourceBergen (NYSE:ABC), Schwab (NYSE:SCHW), ADP (NASDAQ:ADP), Chipotle (NYSE:CMG), Reynolds America (NYSE:RAI), Express Scripts (NASDAQ:ESRX), Alliance Data (NYSE:ADS), Fiserv (NASDAQ:FISV), Paychex (NASDAQ:PAYX), Whole Foods (NASDAQ:WFM), Akamai (NASDAQ:AKAM), Intuit (NASDAQ:INTU), Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV).
- High foreign sales and low tax rates (avoid): Abbott Labs (NYSE:ABT), Agilent (NYSE:A), Mondelez (NASDAQ:MDLZ), XL Group (NYSE:XL), Waters (NYSE:WAT), Priceline (NASDAQ:PCLN), Transocean (NYSE:RIG), PerkinElmer (NYSE:PKI), Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), Lam Research (NASDAQ:LRCX), Western Digital (NASDAQ:WDC).
Fri, May 20, 10:56 AM
- Lam Research (LRCX +4.1%), KLA-Tencor (KLAC +2.3%), ASML (ASML +2.2%), Axcelis (ACLS +3.9%), Kulicke & Soffa (KLIC +3%), Ultratech (UTEK +3.5%), Teradyne (TER +2.3%), Rudolph Technologies (RTEC +2.6%), and Xcerra (XCRA +2.7%) are outperforming after Applied Materials (AMAT +13.2%) beat FQ2 estimates, provided FQ3 guidance that was well above consensus, and reported FQ2 orders rose 52% Q/Q and 37% Y/Y to $3.45B. The Nasdaq is up 1.2%.
- Applied's order growth was fueled in large part by display equipment orders totaling $700M, up sharply from $183M in the prior quarter and $120M a year ago. On its earnings call, AMAT said display order strength is likely to continue "over the rest of 2016," and is being driven by mobile-related OLED investments - many reports have indicated Apple plans to bring iPhones sporting OLEDs to market next year.
- OLED materials/IP provider Universal Display (OLED +5.2%) is rallying. As are display panel makers LG Display (LPL +6.5%) and AU Optronics (AUO +3.2%), each of which have been stepping up their OLED investments, and industrial laser maker Coherent (COHR +2.5%), which has recently seen an OLED-related order surge.
- Also: Applied's NAND flash-related orders more than doubled Y/Y to nearly $1B thanks to its customers' 3D NAND investments. That more than offset softer DRAM and foundry-related chip equipment demand. On the call, Applied suggested NAND orders will slow a bit in the second half of FY16, but remain strong overall. Foundry demand is expected to grow somewhat this year, with Applied gaining share. Industry wafer fab equipment demand is expected to be flat to slightly up.
- B. Riley has upgraded Applied to Buy, and several firms have hiked their targets. Cowen's Tim Arcuri thinks $3 in annual EPS is now possible. Credit Suisse's Farhan Ahmad: "AMAT is clearly outgrowing peers this year, driven by favourable mix shift within WFE (NAND/Foundry increasing, DRAM declining) and strong growth in Display (China/OLED investments)."
Fri, May 13, 7:18 PM
- In an update on their pending merger, Lam Research (NASDAQ:LRCX) and KLA-Tencor (NASDAQ:KLAC) say they've each gotten a new request from the Justice Dept.
- It's a second request for more information and documentary material tied to the transaction, and the two say they are working with DOJ staff on a consent decree.
- The tie-up has gotten clearance in Germany, Ireland, Israel and Taiwan, and they say they're working with regulators elsewhere and still expect to close the deal in Q3.
- Both stocks were flat in after-hours action.
- Now read The Market Will Catch Up To Lam Research »
Fri, May 13, 4:11 PM
Tue, Apr. 26, 6:19 PM
- KLA-Tencor (NASDAQ:KLAC) is off just 2.6% after hours now following a miss on revenues in fiscal Q3, though profits easily beat expectations and the company guided strong on the coming quarter.
- Revenue breakout: Product, $530.6M (down 6.1%); Service, $181.8M (up 4.9%). Shipments were up 5% sequentially to $769M.
- With a merger with Lam Research (NASDAQ:LRCX) ahead, it's discontinued conference calls and has dropped guidance on quarterly backlog and bookings.
- In its investor letter, it said it expected "continued order momentum and high levels of business activity, highlighted by strong customer acceptance of new products." For the second half, revenue and earnings should be flat to up slightly vs. the first half.
- Press Release
- Now read Making Sense Of The Lam Research - KLA-Tencor Merger »
Wed, Apr. 20, 4:17 PM
Tue, Apr. 19, 5:35 PM| Tue, Apr. 19, 5:35 PM | 16 Comments
Fri, Feb. 19, 4:11 PM
Fri, Feb. 19, 12:25 PM
- Lam Research (LRCX +4%), KLA-Tencor (KLAC +2.2%), ASML (ASML +2.6%), Axcelis (ACLS +3.9%), Rudolph Technology (RTEC +2.3%) and Xcerra (XCRA +4.9%) have caught sympathy bids after chip equipment giant Applied Materials (AMAT +9.4%) slightly beat FQ1 estimates and (more importantly) issued strong FQ2 guidance. The Nasdaq is up 0.3%.
- Applied's numbers come after Lam and ASML forecast demand would pick up in calendar Q2 following a soft Q1. On its earnings call (transcript), Applied forecast the wafer fab equipment (WFE) market would be roughly flat in 2016 - Gartner forecast a 2.5% drop in January, followed by 8.1% growth in 2017 and 9.1% growth in 2018.
- 2016 outlook: NAND flash equipment spend is expected to be up ~25% Y/Y in 2016 thanks to 3D NAND investments; DRAM spend is expected to drop ~20%, and logic spend be roughly flat. CFO Robert Halliday: "We do believe that the first half is a little bit more weighted to NAND, whereas the second half is more weighted to stronger performance in foundry, logic and DRAM. So we do see a stronger second half." Applied expects to gain WFE share in 2016, aided by strong 3D NAND and 10nm process positions.
- Orders: Not surprisingly (given soft near-term demand), Applied's chip equipment orders fell in FQ1, dropping 11% Y/Y to $1.28B. However, services orders rose 12% to $773M, and display orders (boosted by OLED equipment demand) rose 71% to $183M. Energy/environmental (solar) orders fell 12% to $44M. (earnings release)
- Needham's Edwin Mok has upgraded Applied to Buy, with a $22 target. "We believe AMAT's strategy and efforts to drive growth in the Silicon, Display and [global services] businesses are finally starting to yield results, even with limited industry growth ahead. With improving gross margins and good cost control ahead, we now expect the model to deliver strong, double-digit-% earnings growth in 2-3 years, even though it is trading largely in line with other large-cap Semi names."
- Update: In other news, Lam Research and KLA-Tencor shareholders have each approved the companies' planned merger. The deal is still expected to close in mid-2016.
Thu, Jan. 28, 3:44 PM
- Lam Research (LRCX +2.7%) is posting healthy gains after beating FQ2 estimates (moreso on EPS than revenue). FQ3 guidance is for revenue of $1.3B (+/- $75M) and EPS of $1.07 (+/- $0.10), below a consensus of $1.39B and $1.31. However, though revenue is expected to drop Q/Q, shipments are expected to rise to $1.43B (+/- $75M) from FQ2's $1.29B.
- Also: On the earnings call (transcript), CFO Doug Bettinger provided upbeat FQ4 commentary. "We expect shipments and revenue in the June quarter will be stronger than in the March quarter. With the anticipated strength in shipments, we expect to grow our deferred revenue balances in the first half of 2016. As we sit here today, I expect the second half of the year will have a stronger top line than the first half due to investments in leading-edge foundry and logic." That fits with ASML's upbeat calendar Q2 commentary.
- Lam's FQ2 results, earnings release
Wed, Jan. 27, 4:09 PM
- Lam Research (NASDAQ:LRCX): FQ2 EPS of $1.57 beats by $0.14.
- Revenue of $1.42B (+15.4% Y/Y) beats by $10M.
- Shares -2.5%.
Tue, Jan. 26, 5:35 PM| Tue, Jan. 26, 5:35 PM | 26 Comments
Fri, Jan. 15, 2:26 PM
- Up strongly yesterday as markets rallied and TSMC set a 2016 capex budget of $9B-$10B (up from 2015 capex of $8.12B), a slew of chip equipment makers are seeing big losses amid a 3.3% Nasdaq drop after Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) used its Q4 report to disclose its 2016 capex budget has been cut by $500M to $9.5B (+/- $500M). That's still up by $2.2B at the midpoint from 2015's $7.3B, but lower than the $10.1B-$11B spent annually from 2011-2014.
- On Intel's earnings call (transcript), CEO Brian Krzanich indicated the budget cut is related to logic (i.e. CPU) capex, and insisted no specific major factor was responsible. "As we went from the investor meeting into the actual firm forecast for 2016, the team has just sharpened down all the numbers and went through it in more detail."
- Major decliners: Applied Materials (AMAT -4.3%), Lam Research (LRCX -6.5%), KLA-Tencor (KLAC -3.8%), ASML (ASML -6.3%), MKS Instruments (MKSI -3.9%), Ultratech (UTEK -4.9%), Teradyne (TER -3.1%), Advantest (ATE -4.6%), and Ultra Clean (UCTT -5.2%).
- Stifel's Patrick Ho argues the selloff is a buying opportunity. "[W]e have already seen positive preannouncements with two of our names (Ultra Clean, Axcelis) and we expect more upside surprise than those on the downside ... We believe 3D NAND momentum continues to build while there has been some initial buying for 10nm logic (Intel) and foundry (TSMC). We maintain our industry thesis that 3D NAND spending will be the largest incremental driver for spending in 2016, with upside potential from the foundries in 2H16 related to 10nm investments." He likes Applied, Lam, Teradyne, and MKS.
- Credit Suisse's Farhan Ahmad notes Applied, ASML, and Lam have relatively low Intel exposure, and that a Korea Times report indicates DRAM/NAND flash maker SK Hynix's capex might increase in 2016. On the other hand, he's worried current expectations for EUV system shipments (important for ASML) are too optimistic.
- Samsung (OTC:SSNLF), another top-3 chip equipment buyer, reports after the Jan. 21 close. Citi's Atif Malik sees Samsung cutting capex due to lower DRAM-related spending. "We think Samsung moderating memory spend, particularly DRAM, would improve memory supply-demand balance and sustainability of memory equipment spend in C16."
Lam Research Corp. engages in the supply of wafer fabrication equipment and services to the semiconductor industry. Its products include front-end wafer processing, back-end wafer-level packaging, and other related products. The company also designs, manufactures, markets, refurbishes, and... More
Industry: Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
Country: United States
Other News & PR