Nov. 26, 2013, 11:15 AM
- E-commerce sales this holiday season will rise 14% to 17% this year to top the marks of the last three years, forecasts Jefferies. Cyber Monday sales are tapped to see +20% Y/Y sales growth.
- The ongoing channel shift away from brick-and-mortar becomes even more pronounced when auto, restaurants, and gas are backed out of retail sales tallies. Apparel sellers are forecast to be the hardest hit, although on-trend names such as Under Armour (UA), Macy's (M), Gap (GPS), and Lululemon (LULU) should outperform.
- The strong Cyber Monday rush could hurt foot-traffic reliant chains such as TJX Companies (TJX), J.C. Penney (JCP), Barnes & Noble (BKS), Ultra Salon (ULTA), and DSW (DSW) - according to some trends dug up by Placed.com.
- The positive read on e-commerce sales bodes well for Amazon (AMZN), Retailmenot (SALE), eBay (EBAY), Overstock. com (OSTK), and Blue Nile (NILE) - although high expectations are already likely factored into share price.
- Related ETFs: XLY, VCR, IYC, SCC, FXD, UCC, RCD, FDIS, PSCD, PEZ.
Nov. 26, 2013, 4:57 AM
- Consumers who think they'll be getting huge discounts on Black Friday might want to think again. In the words of the WSJ's Suzanne Kapner, "those bargains will be a carefully engineered illusion."
- Retailers and suppliers first work out the lowest price they can sell a product at and still make the profit they want, and then they jack up the "suggested retail price" so that the retailer can later offer a big discount.
- Another tactic is for stores to raise selling prices just before the holiday season discount period kicks in.
- Retailers: WMT, JCP, M, SHLD, JOSB, MW, KSS, BBY, TGT, HD
- ETFs: XLY, XRT, VCR, RTH, RETL, PEJ, IYK, FXD, PMR, UGE, RCD, SZK, PSCD, FDIS, PEZ
Nov. 25, 2013, 8:22 AM
- Retailers are in a frenzied competition to bring in more Black Friday shoppers by opening their doors on Thanksgiving even though it's a move that might not help their bottom lines.
- Turkey Day: Some research shows the cost of paying employees for the holiday hours and bonus discounts outweighs the incremental sales from being open. Kmart (SHLD), Wal-Mart (WMT), Toys 'R' Us, Target (TGT), Best Buy (BBY), Macy's (M), and J.C. Penney (JCP) may have fallen into the trap.
- The day after: Accenture says retail interest in Black Friday is at a 5-year high and under-30 shoppers in particular consider it an "event" that they can't miss.
- The trend sets up well for some restaurant chains which could see a high rate traffic sans the promotional atmosphere. Starbucks (SBUX), McDonald's (MCD), Panera Bread (PNRA), and Chipotle (CMG) come to mind.
Nov. 23, 2013, 2:27 PM
- "The U.S. economy might be limping along, but many consumers have broken into a sprint," Jacqueline Doherty writes, in what seems like a rather paradoxical passage considering that consumer spending accounts for around two-thirds of U.S. economic output.
- Doherty cites an October retail sales print that came in ahead of consensus, NRF's expectations for a healthy Y/Y increase in holiday sales, and a hefty, market-beating return for the S&P Retail Select Industry index as evidence of "improvements in the consumer's fortunes."
- Still, Barron's thinks some stocks, like Michael Kors (KORS) and Restoration Hardware (RH), may have limited upside after big runs.
- Among retail stocks listed as "bargains": Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY), Home Depot (HD), and Macy's (M).
- Retail ETFs - XLY, VCR, FXD, IYC, PEZ, RCD, PSCD, UCC, SCC, RTH, PMR, XRT, RETL
Nov. 18, 2013, 3:14 PM
- Macy's (M -1.5%) launched its own radio station on Clear Channel's iHeartRadio.
- The station is aimed at the millennial generation and will be a staple at Macy's stores.
- The pesky millennials have been a tough group for retailers to sell to this fall as their discretionary spending has poured into electronics and digital technology at a higher rate instead of fashions.,
Nov. 13, 2013, 1:56 PM
- Execs with Macy's (M +9.4%) say the company kept its usual tight lid on costs in Q3 which helped it tip slightly more promotional without destroying margins. The company is pretty adamant that it didn't use increased discounting during the quarter.
- Sales did accelerate for the department store chain in October, but the entire quarter showed strong traffic and sales patterns.
- The in-store fulfillment of online orders is going very well and helps the stores display a full assortment as opposed to being thin on inventory. "It's the omnichannel dream."
- Consumers will have the ability to buy online and pick up in stores next year.
- Earnings call webcast
Nov. 13, 2013, 9:59 AM
- A powerhouse quarter and Q4 confidence from Macy' (M +7.9%) is providing a lift to the entire department store sector.
- Though the performance of Macy's seemed to be a direct result of strategic moves by management with its omnichannel initiatives and licensing partnerships, investors are assuming that the chill over retail has defrosted slightly. At least a few retail analysts warn that the Macy's recipe of giving away some margin with promotional activity to add comp growth won't go so smoothly for peers.
- Advancers: Dillard's (DDS) +3.5%, Bon-Ton Stores (BONT) +3.3%, Kohl's (KSS) +1.5%, J.C. Penney (JCP) +1.0%, Nordstrom (JWN) +2.6%.
- Even the S&P Retail ETF (XRT) is feeling the Macy's Effect - adding 0.5% on a down market day.
Nov. 13, 2013, 9:08 AM
Nov. 13, 2013, 8:25 AM
- Macy's (M) is the toast of the retail town after showing strong comparable store sales growth in Q3 at both its Bloomingdale's and Macy's chains amid overall weak mall traffic.
- A push by management to add departments licensed to third parties seems to have worked splendidly. If the licensed sales are included, comp growth was 4.6% in Q3. Once upon a time the Ron Johnson-led Sears department store chain was going to re-invent retail with the "shops" concept, but Macy's used a subtler and more strategic approach to licensing.
- M +6.4% premarket with the company's "confidence" on Q4 marking it as a retail outlier.
Nov. 13, 2013, 8:13 AM
- Macy's (M) reports comparable store sales rose 3.5% during Q3 as ominchannel initiatives helped to drive the gains.
- Gross margin rate fell 40 bps to 39.2% on elevated cost of sales during the quarter.
- The department store operator reiterates previous guidance for comparable store sales growth of 2.5%-4.0% for the second half of 2013.
- The line from Macy's that has caught the attention of investors: "Our business improved during the quarter, with particular strength in October, so we are entering the fourth quarter with confidence." (PR)
- M +5.6% premarket.
Nov. 13, 2013, 8:03 AM
- Macy's (M): Q3 EPS of $0.47 beats by $0.08.
- Revenue of $6.27B (+3.3% Y/Y) beats by $0.08B. (PR)
Nov. 13, 2013, 12:05 AM
Nov. 12, 2013, 5:30 PM
Nov. 8, 2013, 11:12 AM
- Some retail analysts aren't getting giddy about the powerful sales reports turned in by Gap and L Brands.
- Though management of both firms pushed the right levers to cut costs and drive sales with promotions, the gambit could run its course with underlying sales trends weak, warn skeptics.
- The other side of the argument is that Gap and L Brands won market share at the expense of downtrodden mall rivals that failed to see their promotions click. The pair are also well-positioned to take advantage of the trend toward e-commerce shopping in apparel.
- Related stocks: AAP, AEO, ANF, JCP, JNY, JWN, KSS, LTD, M, URBN, PSUN, BKE, WTSL, GPS.
Nov. 6, 2013, 2:59 PM
- Macy's (M +0.5%) will spend $400M to renovate its famous flagship store on 34th street in NYC.
- By the time the project is completed in 2015, the store will have another 100K square feet of retail space and be brimming with luxury features.
- Management sees the store as an essential part of its history worth investing in even as its shifts toward a global brand with increasing reliance on e-commerce.
Nov. 1, 2013, 7:56 AM
- Wal-Mart (WMT) will launch online holiday shopping deals today as it tries to get an early jump on pre-Cyber Monday online sales.
- Major retailers (COST, TGT, BBY, PSMT, M) are a bit edgy this year with six fewer shopping days landing between Thanksgiving and Christmas amid forecasts for slow traffic at malls and strip shopping centers.
- Morgan Stanley's Kimberly Greenberger thinks the 2013 holiday season will be the most promotional one since 2008.
- Related ETFs: XRT, RTH, RETL, PMR
Macy's, Inc. operates department stores. The company provides services through Internet under two brand names: Macy's and Bloomingdale's that sells wide range of merchandise, including men's, women's and children's apparel and accessories, cosmetics, home furnishings and other consumer goods. It... More
Industry: Department Stores
Country: United States
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