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Wed, Feb. 3, 4:57 PM
- Q4 core FFO of $115.5M or $1.45 per share vs. $104.7M and $1.32 one year ago.
- Same-store revenue growth of 5.4% Y/Y, expenses up 2.4%, NOI up 7.3%. Average effective rent per unit up 4.4%. Average physical occupancy of 96.1% down 10 basis points. On balance large markets did far better than secondary markets, with NOI in large up 8.4% Y/Y, and in secondary up 5.3%.
- Full-year 2016 core FFO guidance of $5.68-$5.88 per share vs. $5.69 for 2015. Guidance includes dilution of $0.04-$0.06 from asset recycling plans. Q1 core FFO per share is guided to $1.34-$1.44 in Q1, $1.39-$1.49 in Q2, $1.41-$1.51 in Q3, and $1.44-$1.54 in Q4.
- Conference call tomorrow at 9 ET
- Previously: Mid America Apartment Communities beats by $0.05, misses on revenue (Feb. 3)
- MAA flat premarket
Wed, Feb. 3, 4:39 PM
Tue, Feb. 2, 5:35 PM
- AAV, ALL, AVB, AWH, BDN, BRKS, BWLD, BXP, CACI, CBL, CCK, CDNS, CEB, CINF, CPST, DHT, ENH, EPM, EXAR, FBHS, GEOS, GLUU, GPRO, HIVE, HUBG, ICUI, IMPV, LCI, LNC, MAA, MAC, MCHP, MDU, MET, MNR, MTGE, MTRX, MUSA, MWA, NE, NXPI, OSUR, PACB, PCL, PMT, PNNT, RE, RGLD, RRTS, SFLY, SPSC, TIS, TMK, TTWO, TWO, UHAL, WFT, WSTL, XL, YUM
Fri, Jan. 22, 11:43 AM
- The team cashes in its chips on a Buy call for Mid-America Apartment Communities (MAA +2.2%) after a near-20% move higher over the past few months (the stock is notably flat for 2016).
- Buy calls for shopping center operators DDR (DDR +2%) and WP Glimcher (WPG +1%) haven't worked out as well, and SunTrust downgrades those as well from Buy to Neutral.
Fri, Jan. 8, 9:46 AM
- These income favorites are known for having had a tough time of it in 2015, in part thanks to worries about rising interest rates. MKM's Jonathan Krinsky, however, notes REITs have been relatively outperforming the S&P 500 for months and have just broken out to nine-month highs versus the broader market.
- Krinsky's a technician, so he's staying with the trend and recommending going long REITs (NYSEARCA:IYR) versus the S&P 500.
- Turning to individual REIT sectors and names, he's overweight apartments (AIV, AVB, ESS, EQR, MAA), UDR), storage (CUBE, EXR, PSA, SSS), and shopping malls (KIM, MAC, FRT, REG, IRM).
- He's equal weight data centers (buys: CONE, DCT, QTS, sells: EGP), diversified (buys: AMT, CCI, DLR, DRE, PSB, sells: EQIX, LPT, STAG, VNO, WY, WPC).
- He's underweight office property (buys: EQC, sells: HPP, FSP, GOV, KRC, OFC, PKY, SLG), hotels (sells: AHT, FCH, HPT, HST), mREITs (sells: ARR, STWD, RSO, buy: ABR), healthcare (sells: HCP, MPW, OHI, VTR, buys: DOC, HR, HTA)
Wed, Jan. 6, 8:07 AM
- The national vacancy rate edged up to 4.4% in Q4 versus 4.3% in Q3 and a year earlier, according to Reis, Inc. It's the second straight sequential rise in vacancies - the first time that's happened since 2009. Rents rose 0.8% in Q4 - slower than past quarters, but still representing an annualized increase north of 3%.
- It's a tale of two markets, with older, suburban properties holding the overall vacancy rate down amid a surge in downtown, Class A supply aimed at the one-percenters.
- "Vacancies are rising predominantly because a lot of shiny, sexy new Class A projects are having a harder time leasing up relative to a few years ago," says Ryan Severino from Reis. According to his firm, there have been exactly zero completions of new Class B and C apartments since 2012, and almost 1M of new Class A units since 2007.
- Interested parties: EQR, AVB, ESS, PPS, UDR, AIV, CPT, MAA, IRET, MORE, NXRT, APTS, BRG
Dec. 9, 2015, 9:38 AM
- Strong demand for rental housing in the aftermath of the property crash isn't a new story, but it's got plenty of room to run, according to CoreLogic. The company expects more than 1.25M of household formations next year, with most of those wanting to rent at a time when vacancy rates are at or near 30-year lows.
- As a result, they say, look for rental rates to continue to outpace the level of inflation.
- And while multifamily mortgage originations should rise next year, CoreLogic sees single-family originations falling 10% - mostly due to lower refinance volume as interest rates go north.
- Interested parties: Single-family landlords: SBY, AMH, ARPI, SWAY. Apartment owners: EQR, AVB, ESS, PPS, UDR, AIV, CPT, MAA, IRET, MORE, NXRT, APTS, IRT
Dec. 8, 2015, 4:37 PM
Nov. 20, 2015, 9:26 AM
- Apartment rents are still strong, but the rate of growth is slowing, according to Zillow, reporting a nationwide increase of 4.5% Y/Y in October, down from 5.3% in September and 6.6% in July.
- Even in red-hot San Francisco, a rent gain of 15.2% last month stands against 19% in June and July.
- At issue is more supply, says Zillow, noting projects begun a couple of years back are starting to come online.
- With rental affordability down, the relative affordability of homeownership is on the rise, says Zillow, noting home values up 4.3% - the fastest pace in a year.
- Apartment REITs: EQR, AVB, ESS, PPS, UDR, AIV, CPT, MAA, IRET, IRT, MORE, NXRT, APTS, BRG
Oct. 29, 2015, 3:26 PM
- Q3 core FFO of $109.9M or $1.38 per share vs. $101.6M and $1.28 one year ago.
- Same-store NOI up 8.1% Y/Y, with revenue up 6.1% and expenses up 3%.
- Average revenue per occupied unit of $1,123 up 5.1%, with average effective rent up 4.6%. Average physical occupancy up 90 basis points. Resident turnover of 53.3% on a rolling twelve-month basis.
- Full-year core FFO per share guidance is boosted to $5.39-$5.49 from $5.25-$5.41.
- Previously: Mid America Apartment Communities beats by $0.05, beats on revenue (Oct. 28)
- MAA +2.7%
Oct. 28, 2015, 5:27 PM
- Mid America Apartment Communities (NYSE:MAA): Q3 FFO of $1.38 beats by $0.05.
- Revenue of $262M (+5.0% Y/Y) beats by $0.82M.
Oct. 27, 2015, 5:35 PM
- ABX, ACGL, AEM, AF, AFFX, AFOP, AMGN, ANIK, AR, ARII, ARRS, ASGN, ATML, BANC, BLKB, BWLD, CACI, CAVM, CBL, CGI, CHDN, CLI, CMO, CMPR, CNL, CNO, CNW, CRUS, CSGP, CW, CWT, DRE, DYAX, ECHO, ELLI, EPR, EQIX, EQY, ESIO, ESRT, ESV, EXR, FFIV, FMC, FORM, FORR, FR, GPRO, HBI, HLS, HOS, HT, HUBG, HY, INT, INVN, ISIL, KEX, KRA, KS, LNC, LOCK, LOPE, MAA, MANT, MAR, MC, MEOH, MMLP, MTGE, MTW, MUR, NE, NEM, NGD, NSIT, NTRI, NVDQ, NXPI, O, OCN, OGS, OII, ORLY, OTEX, PLXS, PPC, PRXL, PSA, PTC, QDEL, QEP, QGEN, QUIK, REG, ROG, ROVI, RRC, SCI, SGI, SGMO, SIMO, SPN, SPRT, SPWR, SSS, STAA, SU, TAL, THG, THRX, TILE, TLLP, TSO, TTMI, UNM, VAR, VECO, VRTX, WDC, WES, WGP, WLL, WMB, WSTL, WTS, YELP
Oct. 26, 2015, 2:38 PM
- "The planned sales will likely raise questions regarding the apartment cycle as well as the 'call' for certain submarkets and asset types," says Cowen's James Sullivan, as Equity Residential (EQR +2.2%) announces the sale of $5.3B of apartment properties and looks to sell another $700M worth next year.
- Zell rung a bell for the top of the last real estate cycle with the early 2007 sale of his Equity Office Properties for $39B.
- Citi's Michael Bilerman acknowledges the sale should make good fodder for the bears, but he remains bullish on EQR. Wells Fargo's Jeffrey Donnelly is impressed with the timing, and applauds EQR for narrowing its focus on larger properties in core urban markets.
- Previously: Equity Residential sells chunk of holdings for $5.365B (Oct. 26)
- Other multi-family REITs: AvalonBay (AVB -0.5%), Essex Property (ESS -0.6%), Post Properties (PPS -0.1%), UDR (UDR -0.2%), Aimco (AIV +0.1%), Mid-America (MAA -0.3%), Investors Real Estate (IRET -0.1%), Independence Realty (IRT -2.6%).
Oct. 20, 2015, 8:58 AM
- It's been a tough year for a lot of REITs, but not for Mid-America Apartment Communities (NYSE:MAA), which is ahead about 13%. Looking for more, Raymond James upgrades to Outperform.
- Aimco (NYSE:AIV) has also held its own with about a 9% gain year-to-date. Raymond James upgrades to Strong Buy from Outperform. The stock's higher by 1% in thin premarket action.
Oct. 5, 2015, 9:38 AM
Oct. 2, 2015, 12:02 PM
- The multi-family vacancy rate edged up to 4.3% in Q3, according to Reis, Inc, up from a post-recession low of 4.2% in Q2. With another 200K new units expected to hit the market this year, look for further increases in vacancies, say some economists. The historical average is about 5.5%.
- "I don’t think this is the death knell for the apartment market, but it is going to be more challenging over the next four to five years than it was over the last four to five,” says Reis' Ryan Severino.
- Rents, however, rose 4.2% year-over-year in Q3, the first time since 2007 above the 4% mark. It's not unusual to see higher rents accompany higher vacancies, as higher vacancies mean new units - usually with higher rents - coming to market. Severino doesn't see rents flattening out until 2017.
- Interested parties: Equity Residential (EQR -0.5%), AvalonBay (AVB -1.1%), Essex Property (ESS -0.7%), Post Properties (PPS -0.8%), UDR (UDR -0.4%), Aimco (AIV -1.1%), Camden Property (CPT -0.3%), Mid-America (MAA -0.4%), Independence Realty (IRT +1%), Preferred Apartments (APTS -0.6%), Investors Real Estate (IRET -1.8%).
Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc is a multifamily focused, self-administered and self-managed REIT. The Company owns, operates, acquires and develops apartment communities in the Southeast and Southwest region of the United States.
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