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  • Thu, Nov. 10, 11:06 AM
    | Thu, Nov. 10, 11:06 AM | 49 Comments
  • Wed, Mar. 16, 7:17 AM
    • Goldman is out with a note saying Janet Yellen will use today's press conference to narrow the gap between Fed and market expectations.
    • “Ahead of this week’s meeting, the market is again putting more weight on the Fed dots’ downward revision than on the Fed’s communication around the timing of the next hike and the pace of the tightening cycle. We disagree with this market view,” Goldman says.
    • “Preparing the market for another ‘hike it and like it’ might be a better option at the current juncture. Not only have data moved in the right direction, but financial conditions, a metric that has occupied an important place for many Fed speakers, have eased back to their level in December.”
    • Goldman expects the Fed will lower its median projected pathway for rate hikes this year down to three from four, but still well above the one hike currently expected by markets.
    • Goldman thinks the Fed will lift the fed funds rate target by 25 BP in June, but add that, “a hike in April is not inconceivable.”
    • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TIP, TMV, IEF, SHY, TBF, EDV, TMF, PST, TTT, ZROZ, VTIP, MBB, TLH, SBND, BKT, VGLT, IEI, SCHP, BIL, TYO, IPE, UBT, DLBS, DTYS, UST, TLO, LTPZ, PLW, VGSH, STPZ, RINF, VMBS, SHV, GNMA, TIPZ, STIP, VGIT, STPP
    | Wed, Mar. 16, 7:17 AM | 7 Comments
  • May 12, 2015, 4:09 AM
    | May 12, 2015, 4:09 AM | 2 Comments
  • May 11, 2015, 5:12 AM
    | May 11, 2015, 5:12 AM
  • Apr. 27, 2015, 5:04 AM
    | Apr. 27, 2015, 5:04 AM
  • Apr. 15, 2015, 4:23 AM
    | Apr. 15, 2015, 4:23 AM | 6 Comments
  • Jan. 28, 2015, 4:05 PM
    • The iShares Barclays MBS Bond Fund (MBB +0.2%) hit a new lifetime high, which should be good for the book values of mortgage REITs (assuming they weren't too hedged), but the yield curve continues to sharply flatten. The 10-year Treasury yield is all the way down to 1.71% and the 30-year at a record-low 2.29% - this as the Fed says it's on track for a mid-year rate hike.
    • In addition to shaving margins for leveraged holders of mortgages, the lower rates could result in another refinance wave, and thus a surge in prepayments.
    • Annaly Capital (NLY -1%), American Capital Agency (AGNC -1.6%), Armour Residential (ARR -0.7%), Hatteras Financial (HTS -0.7%), Western Asset (WMC -2.2%), Apollo Residential (AMTG -0.7%)
    • ETFs: REM, MORT, MORL
    • Previously: Bond yields slide after FOMC (Jan. 28)
    • Previously: FOMC: Still "patient," but rate hike remains on the way (Jan. 28)
    | Jan. 28, 2015, 4:05 PM | 9 Comments
  • Sep. 4, 2014, 1:22 PM
    • The FlexShares Disciplined Duration MBS Index Fund (NASDAQ:MBSD) will invest in pass-through securities that have been issued by the Federal National Mortgage Association, the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation or the Government National Mortgage Association, as stated in the prospectus.
    • Managed by Northern Trust, this is the 16th FlexShares fund currently available to investors
    • Other mortgage-backed security ETFs: CMBS, MBB, GNMA, VMBS, MBG, COBO
    | Sep. 4, 2014, 1:22 PM
  • Jul. 9, 2014, 3:50 AM
    • President Barack Obama has asked Congress for $3.7B in emergency funding to deal with an influx of Central American minors illegally crossing the southern border. GOP leaders say they are unwilling to give the administration a "blank check" without more detailed plans to guarantee the money will help curb the crisis at the border.
    • Tensions have already been rising in Washington after the president announced he would take executive actions to reform border-control laws on his own.
    • The aid request aims to create more detention centers, add immigration judges, and increase border patrols and air surveillance.
    • ETFs: MBB, GNMA, VMBS, AGZ, MBG
    | Jul. 9, 2014, 3:50 AM | 7 Comments
  • Jan. 16, 2014, 3:32 AM
    • The number of foreclosure filings dropped to the lowest level since 2007 last year, declining 26% to 1.36M properties, RealtyTrac says. The figure is less than half of the peak of 2.9M properties in 2010.
    • States with the highest foreclosure rates in 2013 were Florida, Nevada, Illinois, Maryland and Ohio.
    • The number of foreclosure processes started plunged 33% to 747,728, the lowest since RealtyTrac began tracking the data in 2006. Bank repossessions plummeted 31% to 462,970 properties, the least since 2007. (PR)
    • Relevant tickers: PHM, MHO, TOL, KBH, RYL, HOV, SPF, FNMA, FMCC
    • ETFs: ITB, XHB, MBB, MBG, VMBS, CMBS, COBO
    | Jan. 16, 2014, 3:32 AM | 1 Comment
  • Sep. 11, 2013, 6:49 AM
    • Richmond in California has approved a plan for the city to become the first in the country to forcibly acquire underwater mortgages using the power of "eminent domain," which enables governments to seize private property for a public purpose.
    • The idea is for the council to work with investor group Mortgage Resolution Partners to buy delinquent mortgages at deep discounts to the associated properties' market valuations, make the loans more affordable for home owners and avert foreclosure.
    • However, critics fear that the program could hurt the market for mortgage-backed securities, provoke lawsuits and endanger Richmond's finances.
    • The FHFA has said it will press Fannie Mae (FNMA.OB) and Freddie Mac (FMCC.OB) to limit or cease business where eminent domain is approved, a move that would shut off most mortgage financing in the affected areas.
    • ETFs: MBB, MBG, VMBS, CMBS, COBO
    | Sep. 11, 2013, 6:49 AM | 8 Comments
  • Jul. 17, 2013, 10:18 AM
    CYS Investments (CYS +2.4%) is among the leaning gainers in the mREIT sector in the early going. A Deutsche Bank report making the rounds suggests the stock is currently trading at 80% of book value. Given today's rally in GSE MBS (MBB +0.5%), the discount could be even greater than that. (Earlier: Deutsche downgrades a number of mREITs)
    | Jul. 17, 2013, 10:18 AM
  • Jul. 10, 2013, 9:23 AM

    Forced selling by mREITs leading to an ugly cycle in mortgage prices is just what had many concerned about systemic risks posed by the industry. MReits (REM) sold about $30B in MBS last week to keep leverage ratios steady in the face of diving book values, says JPMorgan, exacerbating already weak security prices (MBB). Annaly's (NLY) CEO has characterized systemic worry as equivalent to misguided frenzies about shark attacks, and Hatteras' (HTS) CFO and Dynex's (DX) CIO have seen no changes in the repo market (which the companies rely on for funding).

    | Jul. 10, 2013, 9:23 AM | 9 Comments
  • Jun. 27, 2013, 12:07 PM

    "I was wrong about Treasurys (TLT, TBT)," Jeff Gundlach tells the WSJ of his recent expectation the 10-year yield would never hit 2.5%. However, he tells CNBC, "July will not be a repeat of May and June ... the liquidation cycle appears to have run its course with emerging market bonds (EMB), junk bonds (HYG, JNK), munis (MUB), and MBS (MBB) now recovering sharply." Gundlach has scheduled a special conference call for this afternoon.

    | Jun. 27, 2013, 12:07 PM | 5 Comments
  • Jun. 24, 2013, 1:35 PM

    Dallas Fed chief Fisher warns the "feral hogs" of the markets about attacking Treasurys (TLT) or MBS (MBB, MORT, REM). "We haven't forgotten what happened to the BOE (Soros forced devaluation in 1992). I don't think anyone can break the Fed." The FOMC he says, he "fully understood" markets would react big to word QE could end next year. However, "I don't want to go from Wild Turkey to cold turkey overnight," says the prominent hawk. Markets look to be responding, the S&P (SPY -1.3%) cutting its losses and the 10-year Treasury yield returning down to 2.57%.

    | Jun. 24, 2013, 1:35 PM | 7 Comments
  • Jun. 22, 2013, 9:30 AM
    It's "total capitulation" in fixed income (AGG, BND), says BAML's Michael Hartnett. The "blood bath" includes the largest-ever three-week rush of bond-fund redemptions, $2.6B leaving (2nd largest outflow ever) the Emerging Markets Bond ETF (EMB), and mortgage-backed securities (MBB), municipal bonds (MUB), and TIPS (TIP) funds each now showing net outflows for 2013.
    | Jun. 22, 2013, 9:30 AM | 47 Comments
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