Mondelez's Sugary Valuation Could Cause Wealth Decay
Stephen Simpson, CFA • 14 Comments
Stephen Simpson, CFA • 14 Comments
Yesterday, 2:31 PM
- Hershey (NYSE:HSY) says it has rejected the takeover bid from Mondelez (NASDAQ:MDLZ), with a unanimous vote.
- The company said it got a nonbinding indication of interest for a cash-and-stock deal totaling $107/share of Hershey common stock, along with nonmonetary considerations.
- Hershey says it carefully reviewed the indication of interest, the board uninamously rejected it, and that it determined it provided "no basis for further discussion between Mondelez and the company."
- Shares of Hershey still halted. MDLZ is up 4.2%.
- Updated 2:37 p.m.: Hershey has resumed trading, down slightly from its all-time high of $117.79 set earlier but still up 13.5% on the day.
- Previously: Hershey rises 19% on report of blockbuster buyout offer from Mondelez (Jun. 30 2016)
- Previously: Hershey jumps 7.6% on report of takeout bid by Mondelez (Jun. 30 2016)
Yesterday, 10:54 AM
- Hershey (NYSE:HSY) is now up 19.4% after reports of a buyout offer by food giant Mondelez (MDLZ +1.8%).
- Terms of a deal aren't known, but Hershey is worth $21B and Mondelez nearly $70B, and the combination would unite a well-known American candy brand with the maker of Cadbury chocolates.
- Any deal depends on the approval of the Hershey Trust (holders of 81% of its votes), which has opposed selling in the past.
- Mondelez is trying to make a compelling case, though, promising to relocate its chocolate HQ to Hershey, Pa., and rename itself Hershey.
- Updated 12:29 p.m.: Hershey shares halted again for news.
Yesterday, 10:36 AM
- Mondelez (NASDAQ:MDLZ), the food giant that had been carved out of Kraft Foods, has made a takeover bid for Hershey (NYSE:HSY), The Wall Street Journal reports.
- Hershey shares are up 7.6% in response.
- MDLZ is up 1.4% today.
- Updated 10:39 a.m.: Coming off a halt, Hershey is now up 17.5% to $114.09.
- Updated 10:45 a.m.: Hershey halted again, up 21.3%.
- Developing story ...
Mon, Jun. 27, 6:23 PM
- A lawsuit filed by options and future traders charging Kraft Heinz (KHC -0.1%) and Mondelez (MDLZ -2.1%) with price rigging will be allowed to proceed following a federal judge's ruling.
- The traders say the food giants illegally manipulated the price of wheat at their expense. At issue is a large late 2011 purchase of wheat futures that the plaintiffs say violates Sherman antitrust law and the Commodity Exchange Act.
- That charge moves forward, though a related claim that the two companies ran "wash trades" for a decade to hide manipulation was dismissed (and can be brought again).
- The case is similar to allegations raised by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which had previously noted Kraft Foods bought $90M in wheat futures in December 2011 to take a dominant position in the market without ever intending to take possession of the wheat.
Fri, Jun. 24, 11:05 AM
- Among consumer stocks covered by Susquehanna, the analysts say Mondelez (MDLZ -4.3%) and Coca-Cola European Partners (CCE -5.4%), along with Sodastream (SODA -2.7%), have the greatest earnings downside from a euro and pound that have gotten, well, pounded.
- The euro is currently down 2.3% against the dollar, while the pound is down 8.5%.
- "For those seeking to buy the dip, we would prefer MDLZ over CCE," the firm says, noting that 100% of CCE's revenues are exposed to those two currencies, it faces structural risks, and Coca-Cola's 48% ownership of CCE makes it an unlikely acquisition target.
- Acquisitive companies with U.S. dollar assets could go hunting in Europe, the analysts say, pointing to likely suitor Kraft Heinz (KHC -1.8%) -- a top pick for the firm, along with TreeHouse Foods (THS -0.6%) and Molson Coors (TAP -3.3%).
- Meanwhile, the possible ascendance of UKIP leader Nigel Farage in the UK or "anything that makes a Donald Trump presidency more likely" is bad for Mexico-heavy Constellation Brands (STZ -1.2%).
Tue, Jun. 21, 12:22 PM
- Mondelēz International (MDLZ +0.3%) announces that it has renewed its global strategic partnership with Facebook, the world’s largest mobile platform. The companies will work together to leverage and innovate around consumer insights and messenger to create more meaningful mobile-first experiences between people and brands.
- “Mobile is the most profound disruption we've ever seen in business. People are living their lives on mobile. It’s changed the way we discover, experience and share. It’s also changing the advertising industry, and messaging will have an even greater impact on how brands engage with consumers than social media has. Continuing to invest in a large-scale media partnership with Facebook will help us connect our brands with our consumers while fueling growth," said Bonin Bough, Chief Media and E-Commerce Officer at Mondelēz International.
- On the consumer insights front, the company is an early partner using Facebook’s newly announced Audience Insights API, a way for brands to better understand and leverage information about their consumers to create meaningful marketing campaigns.
- On messaging, the company will work together with Facebook to experiment on the messenger platform, including the newly launched bots for messenger platform. The objective is to pilot ways for consumers to interact in real-time with the company's brands and consumer services globally through the power of messenger threads.
- Press Release
Mon, Jun. 20, 8:22 AM
- Susquehanna analyst Pablo Zuanic notes that SodaStream (NASDAQ:SODA), Mondelez International (NASDAQ:MDLZ), and Coca-Cola Enteprises (NYSE:CCE) face the most risk in the food and beverage sector from a British exit from the European Union.
- The Euro/Pound exposure of the three stocks is significantly higher than the average in the sector.
- Polls over the weekend showed a big swing toward the "remain" option which could calm concerns on SODA, CCE, and MDLZ. All three are stocks are higher in premarket trading amid a broad rally.
Wed, Jun. 15, 10:45 AM
- The cancer agency of the World Health Organization issues a detailed report in which it concludes that drinking coffee doesn't increase the risk of cancer.
- The experts did determine that drinking "very hot" beverages is one probable cause of oesophagus cancer in humans.
- Very hot was defined as 65 degrees Celsius or 149 degrees Fahrenheit. Coffee from some chains is served over that temperature if consumed immediately without any cream added.
- WHO report (.pdf)
- Previously: Coffee to rid itself of 'possible carcinogen' status (June 15)
- Related tickers: SBUX, DNKN, SJM, QSR, MCD, MDLZ, KKD, WWAV, JVA, OTCQB:JAMN, OTCQB:BCCI, FARM, OTCPK:NSRGY.
- ETFs: JO, CAFE.
Wed, Jun. 15, 2:26 AM
- Twenty-five years after classifying coffee as a possible carcinogen leading to bladder cancer, the World Health Organization has reversed course, and is expected to say today that coffee isn't classifiable as a carcinogen.
- WHO is also likely to state coffee has no carcinogenic effects related to other cancers and has even been seen to reduce the risk of liver and uterine cancers.
- Related tickers: SBUX, DNKN, SJM, QSR, MCD, MDLZ, KKD, WWAV, JVA, OTCQB:JAMN, OTCQB:BCCI, FARM, OTCPK:NSRGY
- ETFs: JO, CAFE
Tue, May 31, 8:46 AM
- Mondelez International (NASDAQ:MDLZ) announces it will develop more mobile apps after seeing a stellar response to its Oreo game which has been downloaded over 7M times.
- The company generated more than twice what it invested to create the Twist, Lick, Dunk game through in-app purchases and advertising.
- Next up for the Mondelez mobile team is a Sour Patch Kids app.
Mon, May 23, 12:39 PM
- "Politics is now a topic in every client discussion," say David Kostin and team, and the nature of today's electorate nearly assures a close race, even though prediction markets currently assign a high probability of a Clinton victory.
- When uncertainty rises, consumer staples (NYSEARCA:XLP) typically outperforms, while tech (NYSEARCA:XLK) lags.
- Getting down to names, with protectionism and tax policy two key areas of debate, buy those stocks with high U.S. sales and high effective tax rates, and avoid those with high foreign sales and low tax rates.
- High U.S. sales and high tax rates (buy): Cardinal Health (NYSE:CAH), Fidelity National (NYSE:FIS), Discover (NYSE:DFS), AmerisourceBergen (NYSE:ABC), Schwab (NYSE:SCHW), ADP (NASDAQ:ADP), Chipotle (NYSE:CMG), Reynolds America (NYSE:RAI), Express Scripts (NASDAQ:ESRX), Alliance Data (NYSE:ADS), Fiserv (NASDAQ:FISV), Paychex (NASDAQ:PAYX), Whole Foods (NASDAQ:WFM), Akamai (NASDAQ:AKAM), Intuit (NASDAQ:INTU), Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV).
- High foreign sales and low tax rates (avoid): Abbott Labs (NYSE:ABT), Agilent (NYSE:A), Mondelez (NASDAQ:MDLZ), XL Group (NYSE:XL), Waters (NYSE:WAT), Priceline (NASDAQ:PCLN), Transocean (NYSE:RIG), PerkinElmer (NYSE:PKI), Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), Lam Research (NASDAQ:LRCX), Western Digital (NASDAQ:WDC).
Wed, May 18, 12:14 PM
Fri, May 13, 2:29 PM
- Shares of PepsiCo (PEP -2%) turn sharply lower after Trian Fund Management discloses that it no longer holds a position in the company. The firm exited PepsiCo sometime before March 31.
- Mondelez International (MDLZ -1.1%) is also tilting down a bit with the company identified by Nelson Peltz as a strong merger partner for PepsiCo.
- SEC Form 13F
Wed, Apr. 27, 8:15 AM
- Mondelez International (NASDAQ:MDLZ) announces that organic revenue rose 2.1% in Q1. The gain consisted of a 2.8 percentage point impact from pricing to help offset the 70 bp volume/mix drag. Sales were down 17% on a reported basis on significant F/X pressure..
- Organic revenue was higher across all regions, led by a 4.5% increase in the Eastern Europe, Middle East & Africa business. Emerging markets reported organic revenue growth of 3.6%, while developed markets was also positive with a 1.3% gain. Power Brands delivered a 3.8% increase in organic revenue.
- Adjusted operating income margin rate +240 bps to 15.1%.
- "We significantly expanded margins by continuing to reduce supply chain and overhead costs," noted CEO Irene Rosenfeld.
- Previously: Mondelēz beats by $0.09, beats on revenue (April 27)
- MDLZ +2.56% premarket to $43.59.
Wed, Apr. 27, 8:04 AM
Tue, Apr. 26, 5:30 PM
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Mondelez International, Inc. is engaged in the manufacturing and marketing of snack food and beverage products, which include biscuits such as cookies, crackers and salted snacks, chocolate, gum & candy, coffee & powdered beverages and various cheese & grocery products. It operates its business... More
Sector: Consumer Goods
Industry: Food - Major Diversified
Country: United States
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