Mondelez's Sugary Valuation Could Cause Wealth Decay
Stephen Simpson, CFA • 14 Comments
Stephen Simpson, CFA • 14 Comments
Fri, Feb. 19, 3:10 PM
Mon, Feb. 8, 6:29 PM
Wed, Feb. 3, 11:27 AM
- Susquehanna dug down into Mondelez International's (MDLZ -7.2%) guidance in a fresh note to investors.
- The investment firm notes Mondelez's organic growth estimate of +2% is below its estimate of 4%, even with the F/X impact in-line with expectations.
- EBIT margin of 15% to 16% looks "disappointing" to analyst Pablo Zuniac.
- A 2018 target of operating income margin of 17% to 18% looks a tad "ambitious" to Susquehanna.
- Previously: Mondelēz misses by $0.02, beats on revenue (Feb. 03 2016)
- Previously: Mondelēz down post Q4 results (Feb. 03 2016)
Wed, Feb. 3, 9:09 AM
- Mondelēz (NASDAQ:MDLZ) reports organic net revenue growth of 4.7% in Q4.
- Power brands organic net revenue grew 5.5%.
- Organic net revenue from emerging markets +12.4% and developed markets +0.1%.
- Revenue break-up: Latin America: $1.258B (+1.5%, Organic net revenue: +23.8%); Asia Pacific: $1.082B (-5.5%, Organic net revenue: +1.2%); Eastern Europe,Middle East& Africa: $636M (-29.2%, Organic net revenue: +5.4%); Europe: $2.565B (-31.8%, Organic net revenue: -1.1%); North America: $1.823B (+2.1%, Organic net revenue: +2.6%).
- Adjusted gross profit margin rate improved 280 bps to 38.8%.
- Adjusted operating margin rate grew 120 bps to 13.9%.
- FY2016 Guidance: Organic net revenue: At least 2%; Adjusted operating income margin rate: 15% to 16%; Adjusted EPS: double-digit growth on a constant currency basis.
- MDLZ -4.39% premarket.
Wed, Feb. 3, 8:05 AM
- Mondelēz (NASDAQ:MDLZ): Q4 EPS of $0.46 misses by $0.02.
- Revenue of $7.4B (-16.2% Y/Y) beats by $130M.
- Shares -0.7% PM.
Tue, Feb. 2, 5:30 PM
Mon, Feb. 1, 8:45 AM
- Susquehanna is out with a cautious note on Mondelez International (NASDAQ:MDLZ) ahead of earnings.
- Analyst Pablo Zuanic warns on Mondelez's short-term exposure to emerging markets and sees some execution risk. He writes "consensus estimates need to come down, and fear FY16 guidance may disappoint."
- The firm lowers its rating to Neutral from Buy and sets a reduced price target of $45.
- Mondelez reports on February 3. Analysts expect revenue of $7.445B and EPS of $0.48.
Fri, Jan. 29, 1:41 PM
- Susquehanna notes that a strong U.S. dollar is likely to force 2016 EPS estimates lower on major global food and beverage names.
- The blended drop vs. the U.S. dollar of the Euro, Canadian Dollar, UK Pound, Mexican Peso, and Brazilian Real is -10%, analyst Pablo Zuniac. Other firms are likely to have factored in a less disruptive F/X market with their 2016 estimates.
- Companies in harm's way include KO, MDLZ, BUD, TAP, GMCR, WWAV, CCE, KHC, and K.
- Related ETF: PBJ.
Mon, Jan. 25, 9:39 AM
Thu, Jan. 14, 7:50 AM
- Chocolate producers are working together to improve low cocoa crop yields in an effort to meet rising global demand.
- Older trees and poor crop management have held down yields in both Ivory Coast and Ghana.
- A higher level of production could have a ripple effect across the broader cocoa market.
- Related stocks: MDLZ, HSY, OTCPK:NSRGY, OTC:BYCBF, ADM.
- ETFs: NIB, CHOC
Dec. 8, 2015, 12:47 PM
- Mondelēz (NASDAQ:MDLZ) declares $0.17/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
- Forward yield 1.55%
- Payable Jan. 14; for shareholders of record Dec. 31; ex-div Dec. 29.
Dec. 7, 2015, 9:50 AM
- The buyout of Keurig Green Mountain (NASDAQ:GMCR) is creating a buzz in the beverage sector.
- Shares of GMCR are up 74% to $89.91 vs. the deal price of $92. The moonshot in share price is a positive for Coca-Cola (KO +0.2%) which owns a 17% block and not so great for Greenlight Capital which went short (for the second time) when shares were in the triple-digits.
- SodaStream (SODA +9.8%) and Coffee Holding (JVA +11.9%) are both up sharply with the M&A in the sector raising their profile.
- Coffee names Farmer Brothers (FARM +0.9%) and TreeHouse Foods (THS +0.8%) are also ahead of broad market averages. National Beverage Corp. (FIZZ +1.4%) is catching some bids as it Coca-Cola distributor Embotalledora (AKO.A, AKO.B) with a +1.2% gain.
- An interesting side note on the deal is if it could impact ongoing speculation over a Mondelez International (MDLZ -0.6%) and PepsiCo (PEP +0.1%) food combination. Mondelez is a coffee JV partner of JAB Holdings which is now a bit closer to Coca-Cola through the GMCR deal.
Dec. 4, 2015, 11:37 AM
- Mondelez International (MDLZ +3.8%) is higher after Bernstein issues some very optimistic commentary.
- Analyst Alexia Howard maintains an Outperform rating on her view shares deserve a rich takeover premium (PepsiCo food/MDLZ again) and with cost synergies piling up. Her four-year price target on Mondelez is $80.
- PepsiCo CEO Indra Nooyi hasn't really opened the door much about spinning off the food business, although that hasn't kept the topic off the radar of activists and analysts.
Dec. 1, 2015, 8:00 AM| Dec. 1, 2015, 8:00 AM
Nov. 17, 2015, 6:51 AM
- Mondelez International (NASDAQ:MDLZ) announces a tender offer for £350M ($532.2M) in notes due in 2018.
- The company aims to improve its debt maturity profile through the offer and take advantage of market conditions.
Nov. 11, 2015, 3:30 PM
Mondelez International, Inc. is engaged in the manufacturing and marketing of snack food and beverage products, which include biscuits such as cookies, crackers and salted snacks, chocolate, gum & candy, coffee & powdered beverages and various cheese & grocery products. It operates its business... More
Sector: Consumer Goods
Industry: Food - Major Diversified
Country: United States
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