Thu, Feb. 12, 8:49 AM
Wed, Feb. 11, 5:30 PM
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Tue, Feb. 3, 3:52 PM
- Unable to put any sort of positive move together even as interest rates tumbled this year, mREITs (REM +0.9%) are uniformly higher this session as the 10-year yield jumps 11 basis points to 1.78%.
- American Capital Agency (AGNC +1.3%) reported better-than-hoped Q4 results last night, but has altered its mix of portfolio holdings and hedges to brace for what it expects will be a wave of prepayments. If rates keep this up, those prepayments may not materialize.
- Annaly (NLY +1.1%), Chimera (CIM +1.5%), CYS Investments (CYS +1.3%), American Capital Mortgage (MTGE +1.8%), Hatteras (HTS +1.1%), MFA Financial (MFA +1.3%), Western Asset (WMC +1.8%), Dynex (DX +1.1%), Ellington Financial (EFC +1.2%).
Mon, Feb. 2, 12:16 PM
- Non-agency REITs likely fared best in Q4 says the team as credit assets outperformed and were in less need of hedging against higher rates. Two of note are outperform-rated Apollo Residential Mortgage Trust (AMTG -1.2%) and neutral-rated MFA Financial (MFA -1.7%).
- Agency players, however, were more likely to have positioned themselves for higher rates and should see more limited boosts in book value. Two of note are Annaly Capital (NLY -1.3%) and Western Asset Management (WMC -0.1%) - both neutral-rated.
- "While the Q4 rally in rates likely drove BVs higher than we previously assumed, in our view it only forestalls the drag from rising rates on future book value," says JPMorgan, cutting price targets on Annaly, American Capital Agency (AGNC -1%), Two Harbors (TWO -1%), Apollo Residential, and Western Asset.
- Capstead Mortgage already reported its Q4 and results were uninspiring (book value actually slipped a bit).
- Up after the bell tonight is American Capital Agency.
- Previously: Credit Suisse downgrades three mortgage REITs (Feb. 2)
- ETFs: REM, MORT, MORL
Mon, Jan. 12, 10:03 AM
- The mortgage REIT space (REM -0.6%) is cut to Market Weight from Overweight at Wells Fargo, with Annaly Capital (NLY -0.4%), American Capital Agency (AGNC -0.2%), CYS Investments (CYS -0.7%), Capstead Mortgage (CMO -0.8%), American Capital Mortgage (MTGE -0.5%), AG Mortgage (MITT -1.3%), and MFA Financial (MFA -0.3%) - for now - individual names also being cut to Market Weight.
- It's an interesting move, especially in light of the significant discounts to book value nearly every stock in the sector trades at. The mortgage REITs have been especially notable of late for not being able to make any headway alongside the big rally in bond prices. Lower rates might do something for book values, but the sharply flatter yield curve (which could flatten even more once the Fed begins hiking) doesn't bode well for earnings power.
- Other ETFs: MORT, MORL
Dec. 30, 2014, 12:37 PM
- Nearly all the mREITs sell at discounts to their most recently disclosed book value, with sector giants Annaly Mortgage (NYSE:NLY) and American Capital Agency (NASDAQ:AGNC) trading at double-digit discounts.
- Often a sizable haircut to book may make sense, as in the case of Armour Residential (NYSE:ARR) and Javelin Mortgage (NYSE:JMI), both of which just cut their dividend (they have the same external manager).
- Of the 24 companies examined, New York Mortgage Trust (NASDAQ:NYMT) and Capstead Mortgage (NYSE:CMO) stand alone in trading at premiums to book value.
- The full list
Dec. 9, 2014, 2:47 PM
Dec. 5, 2014, 10:12 AM
- This morning's big jobs number has pushed yields higher at both the short and long end of the curve, and has mortgage REIT investors mulling losses on MBS holdings.
- The mREIT ETF (REM -0.6%) Others: MORT, MORL
- Annaly (NLY -1.2%), American Capital Agency (AGNC -1%), Armour Residential (ARR -0.6%), Chimera (CIM -0.6%), MFA Financial (MFA -0.9%), Western Asset (WMC -1.3%).
- Previously: Short end of yield curve on the move after jobs number (Dec. 5, 2014)
- Previously: Bonds and dollar higher, gold slumps after strong jobs report (Dec. 5, 2014)
Nov. 19, 2014, 3:42 PM
- A check of the mortgage REITs following FOMC minutes which shows the discussion moving a bit more seriously towards rate hikes finds the sector (REM -0.5%) modestly lower.
- Individual names: Annaly (NLY -0.3%), American Capital Agency (AGNC), CYS Investments (CYS -0.3%), Invesco Mortgage (IVR -0.9%), New York Mortgage Trust (NYMT -0.4%), Hatteras Financial (HTS -0.8%), MFA Financial (MFA -1%), Capsteam Mortgage (CMO -0.6%), Ellington Residential (EARN -0.4%).
Nov. 5, 2014, 10:51 AM
- On the earnings call (transcript), KBW's Mike Widner questioned the sustainability of MFA Financial's (MFA -2.3%) $0.20 dividend, noting taxable income has been running below GAAP income (and below $0.20 per share) for some time. Widner also says core income (stripping out gains on sales) has been running below GAAP.
- Widner: "I don't expect you guys to give the answer that taxable is going to continue to run lower and, therefore, there is an implication that the dividend is going to get trimmed. But I mean just that it seems bit sooner or later that's the trend that we’re running on."
- Also downgrading to Hold (Neutral), is Sterne Agee's Jason Weaver, though - judging by what he had to say on the earnings call - the move seems more valuation-related with the stock higher by nearly 20% YTD and trading at a premium to book value. Weaver: "My questions have actually been asked ... But I'll say congratulations and solid performance in what was a really wild quarter for the space"
- Previously: MFA Financial beats by $0.01, beats on revenue
- Previously: MFA Financial creeps higher after earnings
Nov. 4, 2014, 8:49 AM
- Q3 net income available to common shareholders of $75.1M or $0.20 per share is essentially a repeat of Q2. Dividend is $0.20.
- Book value per share of $8.28 slips from $8.37 in Q2. Last night's close of $8.44 puts MFA in the rarified air of a mREIT trading at a premium to book.
- Holdings of paper backed by re-performing/non-performing loans up 91% to $943.3M; holdings of non-securitized re-performing loans (the actual loans) up 89% to $112.9M.
- Sold were $61.6M of non-agency MBS issued prior to 2008, realizing a gain of $13.9M - the ninth consecutive quarter of ringing the register on legacy non-agency MBS.
- CPR on agency MBS of 15.11% up 206 bps from Q2; on non-agency MBS of 12.71% up 66 bps; on RPL/NPL MBS of 19.66% up 483 bps.
- Previously: MFA Financial beats by $0.01, beats on revenue
- Conference call at 10 ET
- MFA +0.6% premarket
Nov. 4, 2014, 8:34 AM
Nov. 3, 2014, 5:30 PM
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Sep. 30, 2014, 3:05 PM
- Many in the sector (REM -0.9%) presented today at the JMP Financial Services and Real Estate Conference. Those heard in full by this reporter - CYS Investments (CYS -1.6%), Hatteras Financial (HTS -0.9%), and MFA Financial (MFA -1.3%) - presented nothing alarming, but the sector is nevertheless lit up bright red.
- Other presenters included Capstead Mortgage (CMO -1.2%), Arlington Asset (AI -2.2%), Dynex Capital (DX -1.7%), Invesco (IVR -1.2%), Armour (ARR -2%), New York Mortgage Trust (NYMT -3.2%), Javelin Mortgage (JMI -1.5%), Five Oaks Investment (OAKS -1.9%), and Apollo Residential (AMTG -1.1%).
- Related ETFs: MORT, MORL
- Previously: CYS's Grant not buying hawkish ideas from Fed
- Previously: Hatteras updates on Q3 at conference
- Previously: MFA Financial positions for further housing improvement
Sep. 30, 2014, 11:40 AM
- While the portfolio of non-agency MBS issued prior to 2008 has declined somewhat to $4.9B as of August 31 due to runoff and sales, MFA Financial (MFA -0.6%) has substantially boosted its holdings of MBS backed by re-performing/non-performing loans (RPL/NPL MBS) to $782M, says CEO Bill Gorin, presenting at the JPM Financial Securities Conference.
- The company is also now the owner of about $83M of re-performing residential whole loans (the actual loans, not the MBS).
- As for agency MBS, MFA hasn't purchased any since Q1 of this year.
- Presentation slides
Sep. 17, 2014, 3:49 PM
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