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Dec. 16, 2015, 10:42 AM
Dec. 8, 2015, 12:31 PM
- The bulk of Bank of America Merrill Lynch's 2016 global outlook is a near-perfect extrapolation of current trends and themes - modest economic growth, a slow rise in U.S. rates diverging from other global central banks, commodities and credit under pressure, continued recovery in U.S. housing.
- One standout line does interest however, and that's the team's expectation for value to make a comeback versus growth.
- The research is fairly ample that value trumps growth, but it hasn't worked out that way for years. As measured by the Vanguard Value ETF (NYSEARCA:VTV) and the Vanguard Growth ETF (NYSEARCA:VUG), growth has trumped value by 690 basis points this year, and more than 2K basis points over the last five years.
- It brings to mind another long period of growth beating value - the mid-to-late 1990s (how'd that one work out?).
- ETFs: IVE, VUG, IWF, VTV, SKF, IWD, SPYG, IVW, RPV, RPG, MGK, SCHG, SPYV, SCHV, VOOG, VOOV, PWV, MGV, IWY, JKE, FTA, PWB, EZY, VONG, VONV, FNDX, FBG, DVP, IWX, FTC, PXLG, JKF, IELG, PXLV, SYG, FLGE, GVT, FBGX, RWG, SYV, FIBG, DHVW, CAPX
Sep. 18, 2015, 7:48 AM
Jun. 19, 2015, 7:11 AM
Mar. 20, 2015, 11:27 AM
Dec. 17, 2014, 12:18 PM
Sep. 19, 2014, 3:10 PM
Jun. 20, 2014, 8:06 AM
Apr. 21, 2014, 11:17 AM
- It may be too late to pick up the "free desert" of higher returns from small caps and value stocks, suggests Larry Swedroe, as their historical outperformance is now common knowledge. In the past few years, markets have quickly bid up the share prices of these names alongside numerous publications and studies proving their superiority as investments. "One of the characteristics of an efficient market is that once an anomaly is discovered, the very act of exploiting it will cause it to rapidly shrink and eventually disappear."
- Related ETFs: IVE, IWM, IJS, TZA, TNA, UWM, VB, IJR, SLY, EES, VBR, RWJ, URTY, IWD, VTV, SCHA, TWM, IWN, SDOG, VOE, RWM, SRTY, RPV, IWS, IJJ, DEF, SPYV, SCHV, SAA, DWAS, FLAG, JKL, VTWO, PWV, RZV, VOOV, MGV, DOD, SLYV, SDD, VIOO, RSCO, JKJ, SBB, UVU, RFV, EZY, TILT, FYX, VIOV, FNDA, FTA, XSLV, FYT, IWX, MDYV, JKF, IVOV, JKI, PXSV, EWRS, TWOK, VTWV, UVT, VONV, FNDX, PXLV, UVG, SJH, SMLV, SJF, IESM, VLU, GVT, PXMV, PXSC, SJL, FNK, IELG, SYV
Mar. 21, 2014, 12:25 PM
Feb. 21, 2014, 2:48 PM
- Maybe sensing the moderate early-2014 selloff is done with, investors poured $13.4B into equities in the latest week, according to BAML - the strongest in 12 weeks and bringing YTD equity asset-gathering back to flat.
- Emphasizing the risk appetite theme, flows into high-yield bonds of $2.4B were the highest in 17 weeks, and money-market funds saw outflows of $40.45B after receiving inflows of $11.55B the previous week.
- Still, emerging market debt and equity continues to be sold. In fact, outflows from EM equities over the past four weeks have risen to 2.2% of AUM - just shy of the 3% level which signals a contrarian "buy" signal, says BAML.
- Turning into a pretty good contrarian signal himself, is Hugh Hendry, who dropped his multi-year caution in December to get "long pretty much anything." His Eclectica Fund subsequently lost 3.6% in January - its worst monthly tally ever.
- Related ETFs: PRF, VUG, VTV, SDOG, VV, SCHX, MGK, DEF, NY, SCHG, SCHV, PWV, FLAG, MGV, DOD, JKD, FEX, EQL, IWY, PWB, JKE, EZY, IWX, FTC, EEH, SPXH, JKF, SFK, TRSK, RWG, FWDD, FNDX, PXLC, ERW, PXLV, GVT, SYG, ALTL, PXLG, SYE, SYV, IELG
Jan. 7, 2014, 1:12 PM
- The future looks like the recent past to Citi Private Bank, which - in its 2014 outlook - says stocks have room to run, but beware fixed income. Citi's projections are based on its Adaptive Valuation Strategies which looks at long-term valuation averages to gauge what an asset might offer in the coming decade.
- "Our long-term AVS return estimates for government, investment-grade corporate and high-yield bonds are only 1.9%, 3.4% and 2.9% respectively. The recent rise in bond yields has helped emerging markets where estimated returns have now risen to 5.1%."
- Don't toss away fixed-income entirely, says Citi, but instead cut duration exposure, look for credit risk instead of rate risk, diversify into MLPs, REITs, and dividend stocks, and favor floating-rate investments.
- Broad fixed-income ETFs: AGG, BOND, BND, BSV, BIV, BLV, SCHZ, LAG, SAGG, ILTB, ISTB, GVI, GBF, FWDB, MINC, GIY, AGND, AGZD
- Broad equity ETFs: PRF, VUG, VTV, SDOG, VV, SCHX, MGK, DEF, SCHG, SCHV, PWV, MGV, FLAG, DOD, JKD, FEX, IWY, EQL, JKE, EZY, PWB, IWX, FTC, EEH, JKF, SPXH, TRSK, SFK, PXLC, FWDD, RWG, FNDX, PXLV, ALTL, GVT, PXLG, IELG
Dec. 26, 2013, 9:35 AM
- Bulls in the AAII Investor Sentiment Index rose 7.6 points to 55.1% in the week ended yesterday, the highest level since early January 2011. The long-term bullish average is 39%.
- Bearish sentiment slumped 6.5 points to 18.5%. The long-term average is 30.5%.
- Broad market ETFs: PRF, VUG, VTV, SDOG, VV, SCHX, MGK, DEF, SCHG, SCHV, PWV, FLAG, MGV, DOD, JKD, FEX, EQL, IWY, EZY, JKE, PWB, IWX, FTC, EEH, JKF, SPXH, TRSK, SFK, PXLC, FWDD, PXLV, ALTL, GVT, RWG, FNDX, PXLG, IELG
Dec. 19, 2013, 2:33 PM
- Vanguard Mega Cap Value ETF (MGV) announces quarterly distribution of $0.371.
- 30-Day Sec yield of 2.40% (as of 12/18/2013).
- For shareholders of record 24 Dec; Payable 27 Dec; Ex-Div. date 20 Dec. (PR)
Dec. 11, 2013, 12:08 PM
- "2014 is the year to squeeze more juice out of risk assets. But investors should be ready to discard the fruit when it starts running dry," says BlackRock's Ewen Cameron Watt in the firm's 2014 Investment Outlook. "Beware of traffic jams: easy to get into, hard to get out of."
- Behind the view is the idea central banks (U.S., U.K, Canada, China, to name a few) are poised to begin tightening monetary policy.
- BlackRock doesn't believe stocks are yet in a bubble, but its "risk indicator" - measuring enterprise value against earnings adjusted for volatility - is nearly as high as just before the dotcom bust. "The ratio of the two is the key. High valuations combined with low volatility can make for a lethal mix. This market gauge sounded the alarm well before the Great Financial Crisis."
- Broad large-cap ETFs: PRF, VUG, VTV, SDOG, VV, SCHX, MGK, DEF, SCHG, SCHV, PWV, FLAG, MGV, DOD, JKD, FEX, EQL, IWY, EZY, JKE, PWB, IWX, FTC, JKF, EEH, SPXH, TRSK, SFK, FWDD, PXLC, ALTL, PXLV, GVT, RWG, FNDX, PXLG, IELG
Dec. 6, 2013, 1:13 PM
- "The great peril is not that the Fed finally tightens monetary policy and US stock prices suddenly tumble from what are very obviously overpriced levels," writes Hugh Hendry in his December letter, explaining his new-found bullishness. "The greater peril is that the current backdrop will turn out to mark a rapid acceleration in the ongoing move to the upside."
- In a highly entertaining essay drawing inspiration from the classic Bob Ryan character who popped up on HBO's Entourage for a couple of episodes, Hendry notes the eerie comparison to the markets of 1928, 1982, and 1998 - all ended badly, yes, but participants made plenty of money during the boom phase.
- "Just be long. Pretty much anything."
- Broad large-cap ETFs: PRF, PKW, VUG, VTV, SDOG, VV, SCHX, MGK, DEF, SCHG, SCHV, PWV, FLAG, MGV, DOD, JKD, FEX, EQL, IWY, EZY, JKE, PWB, IWX, FTC, JKF, EEH, SPXH, TRSK, SFK, PXLC, FWDD, PXLV, ALTL, GVT, RWG, FNDX, PXLG, IELG
Vanguard Mega Cap Value ETF seeks to track the performance of a benchmark index that measures the investment return of the largest-capitalization value stocks in the United States. Investment approach: Seeks to track the performance of the CRSP US Mega Cap Value Index. Diversified exposure to the largest value stocks in the U.S. market. Employs a passively managed, full-replication approach. Fund remains fully invested. Low expenses minimize net tracking error.
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