AG Mortgage Investment Trust: A Deceptively Dangerous 19% Yield
Josh Arnold • 29 Comments
Josh Arnold • 29 Comments
Thu, Jun. 9, 4:41 PM
Fri, May 6, 7:35 AM
- Q1 core earnings of $11.3M or $0.40 per share vs. $15.7M and $0.55 in Q4. Dividend is $0.475.
- Book value per share of $17.22 dips from $17.88 three months earlier. Last night's close of $13.41 is a 22% discount to book.
- Negative economic return for the quarter of about 4% annualized.
- 119.6K shares bought back during quarter at average price of $12.86 each, boosting book value per share by $0.07.
- Conference call at 9 ET
- Previously: AG Mortgage Investment Trust misses on net interest income (May 5)
- MITT flat premarket
Thu, May 5, 6:16 PM
Wed, May 4, 5:35 PM
- ABCO, ABTL, ACAD, ACET, AHS, AHT, AIRM, AL, ALEX, AMBR, AMH, ANET, APLE, ASYS, ATHX, ATVI, ATW, BBG, BCEI, BIO, BIOS, BLDR, BOJA, CAA, CARA, CERN, CINR, CLNE, CLVS, CMLS, CPA, CTRL, CYBR, CZR, DATA, DCT, DEPO, DIOD, DK, DKL, DV, DWA, EBS, ECOM, ED, EFC, EGAN, EGL, EGN, EGY, ELON, ENDP, ENV, EOG, ERII, ESL, EVC, EVDY, EVHC, FCE.A, FEYE, FISV, FLR, FPRX, FTD, GBDC, GEOS, GERN, GPRO, GSAT, GST, GUID, GXP, HLF, HTGC, ICPT, IMMR, IMPV, INAP, JCOM, LADR, LOCO, MAIN, MCHX, MDR, MDRX, MDVN, MELI, MHK, MITT, MNTX, MRIN, MSI, MTD, MTZ, NBIX, NGVC, NSTG, NWSA, OLED, OMED, OUT, OVAS, PACD, PCTY, PEGA, PETX, PKI, PMT, POST, PRSS, PTCT, PTLA, QLGC, RPTP, RRMS, RWT, SAAS, SEM, SEMG, SNCR, SPPI, SPWR, SPXC, SQ, SSNC, SWIR, TCRD, TEAM, TRMR, TRUE, TRQ, TRUP, TSRO, TWOU, UBNT, UEPS, UNXL, WAGE, WAIR, WEB, WIFI, WING, XNPT, Y, YELP
Mon, Apr. 11, 12:49 PM
- Annaly Capital (NLY -1.1%) is lower following its agreement to purchase Hatteras Financial (HTS +10.2%) for $1.5B in cash and stock. The other sector giant, American Capital Agency (AGNC -0.1%) is in the red as well - makes sense considering these two players are acquirers (or at least potentially so), not targets.
- With the deal, Annaly is adding a portfolio of variable rate mortgages to its books for about 85% of book value.
- The rest of the sector has market caps of about $2.5B down to sub-$250M, making them digestible as well.
- CYS Investments (CYS +1.3%), American Capital Mortgage (MTGE +1.9%), New York Mortgage (NYMT +2.5%), Anworth Mortgage (ANH +1.2%), Dynex Capital (DX +0.9%), AG Mortgage (MITT +1.2%), Ellington Residential (EARN +1.2%), PennyMac (PMT +1%), Five Oaks (OAKS +1.6%).
- ETFs: MORL, REM, MORT
- Now read: Annaly: Boom Goes The Dynamite (April 11)
Tue, Mar. 29, 2:56 PM
- A fast series of rate hikes wouldn't be good news for mortgage REITs, whose carry-trade business model breaks down with a flat or, worse, inverted yield curve.
- Any worries about hawkish Fed action were considerably diminished today after Janet Yellen said caution on rate hikes is "especially warranted," and suggested there's more slack in the labor market than what the trim 4.9% headline UE rate would suggest.
- Mostly lower earlier, the mREIT sector (REM +1.2%) has turned sharply higher.
- Annaly Capital (NLY +0.35), American Capital (AGNC +0.4%), Armour (ARR +1.2%), CYS Investments (CYS +2.3%), New York Mortgage (NYMT +3.2%), MFA Financial (MFA +1.4%), Western Asset (WMC +2.7%), Anworth (ANH +1.5%), Dynex (DX +2.1%), AG Mortgage (MITT +1.9%), Ellington Financial (EFC +1.2%).
Wed, Mar. 16, 2:32 PM
- Losing some ground of late on concern about a faster-than-expected series of rate hikes, the mortgage REITS (REM +1.1%) are catching a bid after the Fed cut its 2016 rate hike forecast to just two moves from four.
- Armour (ARR +1.5%), Annaly (NLY +0.9%), Chimera (CIM +1.6%), Invesco (IVR +1.7%), New York Mortgage (NYMT +1.4%), Hatteras (HTS +1%), Capstead (CMO +1.1%), Western Asset (WMC +1.5%), AG Mortgage (MITT +1.2%), Ellington (EFC +1.6%)
- ETFs: MORL, REM, MORT, LMBS
- Previously: Financials suffer as Fed cuts rate hike forecast (March 16)
- Previously: Fed stays on hold, sees just two rate hikes this year (March 16)
Thu, Mar. 10, 4:53 PM
Fri, Feb. 26, 10:07 AM
- The mREITs (REM +1.3%) are higher across the board after Apollo Residential Mortgage (AMTG +31.3%) agrees to a sale at a hefty premium to last night's close, but still at a discount to book value.
- The entire sector is trading at sizable discounts to book value, with some names at massive discounts. For its part, Apollo Residential yesterday could be purchased for about 60% of its end-of-year book value. And the assets on the books of these companies tend to be highly liquid and easily valued.
- Running an mREIT may not be a terribly efficient exercise at the small market caps most of the sector sports. The companies depend on being able to issue stock with which to fund growth, but can't do so (without being wildly dilutive) when the shares are trading at such wide discounts.
- Sector giants Annaly Capital (NLY +0.6%) and American Capital Agency (AGNC +1.2%) have market caps above $6B, and Two Harbors (TWO +0.8%), Chimera (CIM +1.1%), CYS Investments (CYS +1%), Invesco (IVR +3.5%), Hatteras (HTS +1.2%), MFA Financial (MFA +1%), and Capstead (CMO +1%) are all near or well over $1B.
- Players in Apollo's league (sub-$500M market cap) include New York Mortgage (NYMT +1%), Western Asset (WMC +0.6%), Anworth (ANH +1.3%), Dynex (DX +1.4%), Arlington Asset (AI +4.6%), AG Mortgage (MITT +8.7%), The Ellingtons (EFC +1.9%), (EARN +1.1%), Javelin (JMI +2.8%), Orchid Island (ORC +1.5%), Five Oaks (OAKS +0.7%), ZAIS Financial (ZFC +1.3%)
Fri, Feb. 26, 8:19 AM
- Q4 core earnings of $15.7M or $0.55 per share vs. $13M and $0.46 in Q3. Dividend is $0.475.
- Book value per share falls to $17.88 from $18.47. Company takes note of materially widening credit spreads across fixed-income asset classes. Last night's close of $11.57 is a 35% discount to book.
- The dividend less the fall in book value yields negative economic return of $0.12 for the quarter (2.6% annualized).
- Repurchases of 126.7K shares during quarter for $1.7M, an average price of $13.19 each. Buybacks added $0.08 to BVPS.
- Earnings call at 9:30 ET
- Previously: AG Mortgage Investment Trust reports Q4 results (Feb. 25)
- MITT flat premarket
Thu, Feb. 25, 11:15 PM
Wed, Feb. 24, 5:35 PM
- ACTG, ADSK, AEGR, AGO, AHT, AIRM, AL, ALEX, AMH, ATLS, AXLL, BGS, BIDU, BIO, BLOX, BMRN, BVN, CBI, CBPO, CLVS, COWN, CSU, CVT, DGI, DK, DKL, DLR, EBS, ENV, EOG, EVC, GERN, GG, GPS, GSAT, HASI, HEI, HK, HLF, HTGC, HWAY, IART, IM, IMMR, INTU, KBR, KHC, KND, KW, KWR, LYV, MACK, MAIN, MDVN, MELI, MHK, MITT, MNST, MTZ, NDLS, NNI, NTRI, OLED, OUT, OVAS, PANW, PBA, PEGA, PFMT, PODD, PRAA, RARE, RBA, RLOC, RPTP, RRC, RRMS, RTRX, SBAC, SEM, SEMG, SPLK, SPNC, SSRI, STAG, STMP, STRZA, SWN, TSRO, TWOU, TXMD, UHS, WIFI, WPG, WTW, XNPT, ZOES
Mon, Jan. 25, 3:16 PM
- Modest declines in the major averages are masking the continued liquidation in a number of financial sectors.
- Hotel REITs: Pebblebrook Hotel (PEB -2.4%), LaSalle Hotel (LHO -2.2%), FelCor Lodging (FCH -2.9%), DiamondRock Hospitality (DRH -3.3%)
- Nonbank servicing: Ocwen Financial (OCN -6.9%), Walter Investment (WAC -10.5%), Nationstar Mortgage (NSM -6.7%), Altisource Portfolio (ASPS -4.6%), New Residential (NRZ -3.2%)
- Mortgage REITs: Two Harbors (TWO -3.8%), Invesco (IVR -4.3%), American Capital Mortgage (MTGE -3.4%), Western Asset (WMC -3.7%), Apollo Residential (AMTG -3.8%), AG Mortgage (MITT -3.9%)
- BDCs: Prospect Capital (PSEC -4%), Apollo Investment (AINV -2.2%), Medley Capital (MCC -4.1%), Gladstone Capital (GLAD -4.4%). A few in this sector are managing gains though: Main Street (MAIN +1%), TICC Capital (TICC +1.9%), Harris & Harris (TINY +1.8%)
Wed, Jan. 20, 10:44 AM
- The discounts to book values across the sector have grown to such high levels that one wonders whether it just makes more sense for many of these players to liquidate the portfolios and return the money to the shareholders.
- Sector giants Annaly Capital (NLY -4.9%) and American Capital Agency (AGNC -4.6%) are selling at 30% discounts to their most recent book value.
- Armour Residential (ARR -8.3%), Invesco Mortgage (IVR -7%), Hatteras Financial (HTS -5%), New York Mortgage (NYMT -9.5%), Apollo Residential (AMTG -6.4%), AG Mortgage (MITT -7.2%), Anworth (ANH -6.3%), Arlington Asset (AI -8.7%), and Five Oaks (OAKS -8%) are selling at greater than 40% discounts. Two Harbors (TWO -7.5%), CYS Investments (CYS -6.2%), American Capital Mortgage (MTGE -6%), Capstead (CMO -5.9%), Dynex (DX -7.2%), Western Asset (WMC -8%), Ellington Residential (EARN -7.2%), and Orchid Island (ORC -9.6%) are all nearing 40% discounts.
- MFA Financial (MFA -6.4%) and Chimera Investment (CIM -8.1%) are both nearing 30% discounts to book.
- ETFs: MORL, REM, MORT, LMBS
Tue, Jan. 19, 11:43 AM
- The best thing that can be said about the market reaction today, is that New Residential (NRZ -0.6%) isn't down as much as the other mortgage-related names (REM -1.8%) which continue to be mercilessly pounded.
- PennyMac (PMT -4.5%), Ocwen (OCN -3.7%), Walter Investment (WAC -4.8%), Stonegate (SGM -3.4%), Armour (ARR -3.5%), Invesco (IVR -2.4%), New York Mortgage (NYMT -4.1%), Apollo Residential (AMTG -3.1%), AG Mortgage (MITT -3.4%), Five Oaks (OAKS -6.7%), American Capital (MTGE -2%), Two Harbors (TWO -2.2%), Chimera (CIM -3.4%).
- Citi's Michael Kaye - who rates NRZ a Buy - says the repurchase plan makes sense given the stock trades at just 0.84x book and yields 18%. Depending on how the buyback is funded, it could add up to a couple of hundred basis points of accretion. It also sends a signal to the markets about management's belief in the stock's value. Management gave little detail on a timetable.
- Previously: New Residential steps in with $200M repurchase plan (Jan. 19)
Fri, Jan. 15, 10:23 AM
- In the midst of a market panic and with the sector trading at massive discounts to book value, it takes a pair to issue downgrades now, but that's what Wells Fargo has done, cutting Annaly Capital (NLY -2.9%), MFA Financial (MFA -4.1%), Hatteras Financial (HTS -4.5%), American Capital Mortgage (MTGE -5%), AG Mortgage (MITT -5.9%), and Two Harbors (TWO -3.4%) to Market Perform from Outperform.
- At last check one month ago, these names were trading at discounts to NAV ranging from about 10-30%. Presumably those discounts have widened as the stock prices have crumbled further since then, and book values have likely remained stable or even risen.
- For the last year, mREITs have had to contend with the possibility of higher interest rates across the board. Now they have to deal with a sharply flatter yield curve as the 10-year Treasury yield has fallen about 30 basis points since the Fed hiked last month.
- Good news? FRBNY President Bill Dudley is on the tape this morning suggesting negative interest rates as a possibility if the economy sours. That should help mREIT funding costs.
- ETFs: MORL, REM, MORT, LMBS
AG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc. is a real estate investment trust. It focuses on investing in, acquiring and managing a diversified portfolio of residential mortgage assets, other real estate-related securities and financial assets. The trust is managed and advised by AG REIT Management LLC,... More
Industry: REIT - Diversified
Country: United States
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