VanEck Vectors Agribusiness ETFNYSEARCA
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  • Wed, Aug. 31, 10:44 AM
    • Merger talks between Potash Corp. (POT +0.1%) and Agrium (AGU -0.3%) are in an early stage and a potential deal is "weeks" away, CNBC's Marc Faber reports; Bloomberg's initial report yesterday said a deal could be announced as soon as next week.
    • POT shares are little changed today after rallying yesterday to their biggest one-day gain in more than six years, and the VanEck Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSEARCA:MOO) enjoyed its most active session since September; POT and AGU each make up ~4% of the VackEck ETF’s holdings.
    • Edward Jones analyst Dan Sherman is optimistic about the long-term outlook for potash and likes the merger idea, saying AGU’s retail business would provide diversification to cushion POT from the next commodities downturn, and that "if you believe potash prices are stabilizing, they’re sitting at the bargaining table in about equal positions."
    • However, Morningstar's Jeffrey Stafford says "opportunities for cost synergies make sense to us, but we have a harder time justifying the market optimism [as] the opportunity for [potash] price hikes are limited."
    • Other relevant ETFs: PAGG, VEGI, SOIL
    | Wed, Aug. 31, 10:44 AM | 2 Comments
  • Oct. 23, 2015, 4:20 PM
    | Oct. 23, 2015, 4:20 PM | 3 Comments
  • May 8, 2015, 4:16 PM
    | May 8, 2015, 4:16 PM
  • Jan. 17, 2015, 12:45 PM
    • Milk prices are in a downward trend with an excess of supply on the international market.
    • The supply is so far beyond expectations that some U.S. cooperatives have directed farms to pour out part of their inventory.
    • A reduced level of milk imports from China and Russia has been a factor in the market.
    • Food companies are seeing a quicker benefit from the milk price decline than consumers, although analysts anticipate lower prices at grocery and C-stores stores in 2015.
    • Milk price data (consumers) vs. milk futures chart
    • Related ETFs: MOO.
    | Jan. 17, 2015, 12:45 PM | 115 Comments
  • Oct. 22, 2014, 12:01 PM
    | Oct. 22, 2014, 12:01 PM
  • Jun. 13, 2014, 4:14 PM
    | Jun. 13, 2014, 4:14 PM | 1 Comment
  • May 23, 2014, 11:05 AM
    • Wells Fargo analyst John Baumgartner forecasts a continued drop in milk prices after seeing Class I milk peak earlier in the month.
    • The news could be a relief for a number of companies (DF, WWAV, SJM, DF, NSRGY, LWAY, DNKN, MCD, SBUX, GIS, HSY, MJN, ADY) which have faced margin pressure over the escalated cost of wholesale milk products.
    • Milk price chart
    • Related ETF: MOO
    | May 23, 2014, 11:05 AM | 5 Comments
  • Feb. 13, 2014, 10:30 AM
    • After more than doubling in some Midwest states in the past few years, farmland values have begun to bear the brunt of tumbling corn prices. Wheat and beans are well off historic highs as well.
    • Analysts assure a repeat of past collapses is unlikely as farm income remains strong and debt levels low, but a "recalculation" is at hand. "Profits will be tighter," says a 3rd-generation Illinois farmer. "There's not going to be near the returns, and guys will have to be careful how much expenses they've got into an acre." It's not exactly the kind of thing Deere (DE -1.6%) or AGCO (AGCO -0.9%) investors like to hear
    • Winter is typically the busy season for auctions, but this year has seen a number of "no sale" results. In Iowa, 6.7% of auctions failed in 2013, double the amount in 2012. The USDA forecasts farm incomes will dive 27% this year from 2013 to the lowest level since 2010.
    • Agribusiness ETFs: MOO, PAGG, CROP, VEGI
    | Feb. 13, 2014, 10:30 AM | 4 Comments
  • Dec. 4, 2013, 3:59 PM
    • Fertilizer equities are higher following new coverage from RBC Capital, which prefers Mosaic (MOS +3.2%) and Agrium (AGU +2.4%) in the sector.
    • MOS and AGU are rated Outperform thanks to to a recent trend toward "improving demand in the potash and phosphate markets" and an expectation for "substantial" returns to holders over the next few years; MOS' solid position in the phosphate market could better position it if others are interested in its potash assets.
    • Potash (POT +1.3%), CF Industries (CF +10.7%) and Intrepid Potash (IPI +2.4%) are each started with Hold ratings.
    • Also impacting the ag names is news that CF is working with investment banks about creating an MLP.
    | Dec. 4, 2013, 3:59 PM
  • Dec. 3, 2013, 6:15 PM
    • The layoffs and production cuts announced by Potash (POT) illustrate the key problem in the fertilizer sector: There has been no potash demand growth for six years while supply has been growing.
    • The job cuts have nothing to do with Uralkali's move to produce at full capacity, POT CEO Bill Doyle says; it's about demand weakness across all nutrients that began well before the chaos caused by Uralkali.
    • The two most important emerging markets for fertilizer are China and India, and demand is far lower than anticipated in both.
    • Barclays views the planned cuts as "a good and needed move" in response to the ills plaguing the industry.
    • Other fertilizer producers: MOS, AGU, IPI, CF, SQM.
    | Dec. 3, 2013, 6:15 PM | 8 Comments
  • Nov. 21, 2013, 7:58 AM
    • Belarus agrees to extradite Uralkali (URALL) CEO Vladislav Baumgertner to Russia, days after a buyer was found for the stake of Uralkali’s biggest owner.
    • At least one analyst thinks Baumgertner will resign; a lot depends on the attitude of the Belarus president toward him, and "given that it may be not warm, it would be easier for Uralkali to negotiate the terms of the new trading venture with Belarus with another CEO.”
    • Baumgertner was arrested in August and spent a month in a Belarusian jail after he withdrew his company from a joint venture with potash supplier Belaruskali.
    • Related tickers: POT, MOS, AGU, SQM, IPI.
    | Nov. 21, 2013, 7:58 AM
  • Nov. 18, 2013, 4:12 AM
    • Russian billionaire Mikhail Prokhorov - owner of the Brooklyn Nets - has agreed to acquire a 21.75% stake in Uralkali (URALL), the world's biggest potash miner, from the company's main owner, Dagestani tycoon Suleyman Kerimov.
    • Kerimov and his partners own a third of Uralkali, while China Investment Corp, China's sovereign wealth fund, purchased a 12.5% holding in September.
    • Uralkali caused turmoil in the potash markets after it ended its joint venture with Belarusian state-owned miner Belaruskali in July. The JV, called Belarusian Potash Co, controlled around 40% of the global market and so had a major influences on prices.
    • Following the breakup, Belarus arrested Uralkali CEO Vladislav Baumgertner in August, since when he has been in jail or under house arrest. (Previous)
    • Related tickers: POT, MOS, AGU, SQM, IPI.
    • Related ETFs: MOO, CROP, PAGG, VEGI.
    | Nov. 18, 2013, 4:12 AM | 6 Comments
  • Nov. 15, 2013, 9:40 AM
    • Suleiman Kerimov and his business partners, who jointly control ~33% of potash maker Uralkali (URALL), may reach an agreement to sell the stake as soon as next week, Bloomberg reports.
    • Mikhail Prokhorov’s Onexim Group is the front-runner to take control, according to the report; the stake has a value of ~$5B.
    • POT +1%, MOS +0.8%, AGU +0.3%, SQM +0.2%, IPI +0.2%.
    | Nov. 15, 2013, 9:40 AM | 5 Comments
  • Oct. 22, 2013, 11:22 AM
    • Uralkali (URALL) has been ramping up its potash production significantly as part of its new strategy, independent director Paul Ostling says; the company has said it plans to produce 10.5M tons for the year, up 15% from 2012.
    • While some reports suggest the partnership could be revived, Ostling says it would be difficult to "put Humpty Dumpty back together again" because of deep animosity on both sides, but that it wouldn't be impossible if the right agreements were reached.
    • POT -0.9%, MOS +0.1%, AGU +0.6%, IPI +0.5%, CF -0.1%.
    | Oct. 22, 2013, 11:22 AM | 1 Comment
  • Oct. 14, 2013, 2:14 PM
    • Russian authorities say they opened a criminal case against the jailed chief executive of potash producer Uralkali (URALL.PK) and are seeking his extradition from Belarus to face charges in Russia, in what could be a face-saving move to defuse the potash rift.
    • Russia's main investigative agency says its review of the case indicates enough evidence to charge the Uralkali chief in Russia, though political analysts doubt he would serve any prison time even if convicted.
    • POT +0.8%, MOS -0.1%, AGU +0.7%, IPI -1.2%, CF +0.6%.
    | Oct. 14, 2013, 2:14 PM
  • Oct. 8, 2013, 3:36 PM
    • The Russian potash "soap opera" could weigh on prices until demand rises substantially or producers shut some capacity, Agrium (AGU -3.7%) CEO Mike Wilson says at the fertilizer company's investor day.
    • The structure of the potash market has to go back to where it was before Russia's Uralkali quit its export partnership with Belaruskali, and some producers need to shut capacity, or demand has to soar above 60M metric tons, Wilson says; otherwise, prices will remain under pressure.
    • POT -1.1%, MOS -0.3%, CF -2.5%, IPI -3.4%.
    | Oct. 8, 2013, 3:36 PM | 1 Comment
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