UBS ETRACS Monthly Pay 2x Leveraged Mortgage REIT ETN(MORL)- NYSEARCA
  • Wed, Feb. 3, 7:02 AM
    | Wed, Feb. 3, 7:02 AM | 3 Comments
  • Wed, Jan. 27, 7:01 AM
    | Wed, Jan. 27, 7:01 AM | 6 Comments
  • Tue, Jan. 26, 10:58 AM
    • Mortgage REIT valuations "appear untethered from traditional metrics," says the JPMorgan team, led by Richard Shane, in its upgrade of MFA Financial (MFA +2.2%). Not upgraded today, but also with Overweight ratings are American Capital Agency (AGNC +1.3%), Apollo Residential Mortgage (AMTG +1%), and Ares Commercial Real Estate (ACRE +1.3%).
    • With earnings season for mREITs kicking off next week, Shane and team see book values getting nicked by the Fed rate hike and flattening yield curve.
    • As for this year's FHLB rule change which could limit mREIT's access to that source of funding, Shane concludes the names he's following should be fine. He notes ACRE, AMTG, Blackstone Mortgage (BXMT +1.2%), and Western Asset Mortgage (WMC +0.3%) have not utilized FHLB for funding, and while Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance (ARI -0.4%) is a member, it had no advances as of Sept. 30.
    • ETFs: MORL, REM, MORT, LMBS
    • Previously: JPMorgan buys the dip in MFA Mortgage (Jan. 26)
    | Tue, Jan. 26, 10:58 AM | 46 Comments
  • Wed, Jan. 20, 10:44 AM
    • The discounts to book values across the sector have grown to such high levels that one wonders whether it just makes more sense for many of these players to liquidate the portfolios and return the money to the shareholders.
    • Sector giants Annaly Capital (NLY -4.9%) and American Capital Agency (AGNC -4.6%) are selling at 30% discounts to their most recent book value.
    • Armour Residential (ARR -8.3%), Invesco Mortgage (IVR -7%), Hatteras Financial (HTS -5%), New York Mortgage (NYMT -9.5%), Apollo Residential (AMTG -6.4%), AG Mortgage (MITT -7.2%), Anworth (ANH -6.3%), Arlington Asset (AI -8.7%), and Five Oaks (OAKS -8%) are selling at greater than 40% discounts. Two Harbors (TWO -7.5%), CYS Investments (CYS -6.2%), American Capital Mortgage (MTGE -6%), Capstead (CMO -5.9%), Dynex (DX -7.2%), Western Asset (WMC -8%), Ellington Residential (EARN -7.2%), and Orchid Island (ORC -9.6%) are all nearing 40% discounts.
    • MFA Financial (MFA -6.4%) and Chimera Investment (CIM -8.1%) are both nearing 30% discounts to book.
    • ETFs: MORL, REM, MORT, LMBS
    | Wed, Jan. 20, 10:44 AM | 249 Comments
  • Wed, Jan. 20, 7:29 AM
    | Wed, Jan. 20, 7:29 AM | 13 Comments
  • Fri, Jan. 15, 10:23 AM
    • In the midst of a market panic and with the sector trading at massive discounts to book value, it takes a pair to issue downgrades now, but that's what Wells Fargo has done, cutting Annaly Capital (NLY -2.9%), MFA Financial (MFA -4.1%), Hatteras Financial (HTS -4.5%), American Capital Mortgage (MTGE -5%), AG Mortgage (MITT -5.9%), and Two Harbors (TWO -3.4%) to Market Perform from Outperform.
    • At last check one month ago, these names were trading at discounts to NAV ranging from about 10-30%. Presumably those discounts have widened as the stock prices have crumbled further since then, and book values have likely remained stable or even risen.
    • For the last year, mREITs have had to contend with the possibility of higher interest rates across the board. Now they have to deal with a sharply flatter yield curve as the 10-year Treasury yield has fallen about 30 basis points since the Fed hiked last month.
    • Good news? FRBNY President Bill Dudley is on the tape this morning suggesting negative interest rates as a possibility if the economy sours. That should help mREIT funding costs.
    • ETFs: MORL, REM, MORT, LMBS
    | Fri, Jan. 15, 10:23 AM | 58 Comments
  • Wed, Jan. 13, 7:01 AM
    | Wed, Jan. 13, 7:01 AM | 3 Comments
  • Tue, Jan. 12, 3:17 PM
    • The 10-year Treasury yield is off eight basis points on the session at 2.10%, and now lower by about 20 basis points since the Fed Funds rate got hiked 25 basis points less than a month ago - probably not the best scenario for mREIT earnings going forward.
    • Other income favorites like equity REITs, BDCs, and utilities (XLU -0.8%) are also being aggressively sold today.
    • Annaly Capital (NLY -1.8%), American Capital Agency (AGNC -1.7%), Armour Residential (ARR -2.4%), Two Harbors (TWO -2%), CYS Investments (CYS -1.9%), Invesco (IVR -2.3%), New York Mortgage (NYMT -2.3%), Hatteras (HTS -3.2%), Capstead (CMO -3.6%), Western Asset (WMC -2.9%), Apollo Residential (AMTG -3.6%), Dynex (DX -3.1%), Ellington Residential (EARN -3.5%), AG Mortgage (MITT -3.2%), PennyMac (PMT -4.9%), FIve Oaks (OAKS -5.7%)
    • ETFs: MORL, REM, MORT, LMBS
    | Tue, Jan. 12, 3:17 PM | 24 Comments
  • Wed, Jan. 6, 3:28 PM
    • Trading at roughly a 25% discount to book value, there's plenty of value in the mortgage REIT sector, and now there's a catalyst with the broad-based averages and interest rates both in sharp decline to start the year.
    • The iShares FTSE NAREIT Mortgage REIT ETF (NYSEARCA:REM) is up 2.2% YTD after declining about 20% in 2015.
    • Annaly Capital (NYSE:NLY) and American Capital Agency are each up about 2.5%.
    • Others in the green: Two Harbors (NYSE:TWO), Chimera (NYSE:CIM), CYS Investments (NYSE:CYS), Invesco (NYSE:IVR), New York Mortgage Trust (NASDAQ:NYMT), Hatteras (NYSE:HTS), Capstead (NYSE:CMO), MFA Financial (NYSE:MFA), Western Asset (NYSE:WMC), Anworth (NYSE:ANH).
    • ETFs: MORL, REM, MORT, LMBS
    | Wed, Jan. 6, 3:28 PM | 35 Comments
  • Wed, Jan. 6, 9:49 AM
    • Douglas Harter and team's top picks are those companies with operating businesses that can create their own investments: New Residential (NYSE:NRZ), PennyMac Mortgage (NYSE:PMT), Starwood Property (NYSE:STWD), and Two Harbors (NYSE:TWO).
    • As for the names best-insulated from what's likely to be a series of rate hikes, Harter likes Starwood and Ares Commercial Real Estate (NYSE:ACRE).
    • Looking more generally at the sector, Harter notes stocks on average are trading at a 25% discount to book value, meaning the risks from higher rates may already be baked in. While not seeing any catalyst to drive valuations higher, the average 14.7% dividend yield should provide a nice return.
    • ETFs: MORL, REM, MORT, LMBS
    | Wed, Jan. 6, 9:49 AM | 31 Comments
  • Wed, Jan. 6, 7:01 AM
    | Wed, Jan. 6, 7:01 AM | 2 Comments
  • Dec. 30, 2015, 11:24 AM
    • Zillow estimates the total value of all U.S. homes rose by 4.1% ($1.1T) in 2015 to $28.5T, after having grown 6% in 2014. Home values have now grown by $5.3T since their Dec. 2011 post-housing bust low, but are still $782M below an Oct. 2006 bubble peak of $29.2T.
    • Though growth is slowing, rent payments still grew nearly $19B in 2015 to $535B, and 1.8M new renter households were established. $239B was spent on apartment rents, and $245B on single-family home rents. Zillow estimates average home value rose 3.9% Y/Y in November to $183K, and average rent 3.8% to $1,382.
    • The New York/Northern NJ market accounted for $55.9B in rent payments by itself. Among major markets, only San Francisco and Portland saw rents grow at a double-digit pace.
    • Zillow's numbers come as the NAR reports its pending home sales index fell 0.9% M/M (below expectations for a 0.5% increase) and rose 2.7% Y/Y to 106.9. NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun: "Home prices rising too sharply in several markets, mixed signs of an economy losing momentum and waning supply levels have acted as headwinds in recent months despite low mortgage rates and solid job gains." He nonetheless expects price appreciation to pick up in spring, given low inventory levels.
    • Mortgage/real estate ETFs: MORL, REM, MORT, TSI, DMO, BOI, FMY, JLS, CMBS, JMT, LMBS, MBSD, PGZ
    • Broad U.S. REITs: IYR, VNQ, DRN, URE, RQI, SCHH, ICF, SRS, RWR, RNP, JRS, KBWY, RFI, NRO, DRV, RIT, REK, RIF, FRI, FTY, PSR, DRA, FREL, WREI, IARAX, LRET, XLRE
    | Dec. 30, 2015, 11:24 AM | 24 Comments
  • Dec. 23, 2015, 12:48 PM
    • A check of discounts/premiums to book for many of the names in the mortgage REIT sector finds discounts have mostly widened significantly over the past year.
    • Among the notable items: Just two names sold at premiums to book a year ago. New York Mortgage (NASDAQ:NYMT) trust at 11.6% and Capstead Mortgage (NYSE:CMO) at 1.3%. While book value has barely budged at NYMT over the past year, the price investors are willing to pay has - it now trades at a 17.6% discount. Capstead has shed about 5% of its book value, but now trades at a 22.66% discount.
    • Sector giants Annaly Capital (NYSE:NLY) and American Capital Agency (NASDAQ:AGNC) still trade at sizable discounts to book, with AGNC's widening to 20.65% from 12.7% a year ago.
    • Chimera Investment (NYSE:CIM) trades at just a 4.12% discount to book - that's less than its 4.9% discount a year ago. Book value however, slid 12.7% over the last 52 weeks.
    • Others covered: ARR, TWO, IVR, CYS, HTS, MTGE, AMTG, ANH, MITT, DX, WMC, MFA, EARN, AI, CHMI, ORC, OAKS, ZFC
    • ETFs: MORL, REM, MORT, LMBS
    | Dec. 23, 2015, 12:48 PM | 21 Comments
  • Dec. 23, 2015, 7:03 AM
    | Dec. 23, 2015, 7:03 AM | 7 Comments
  • Dec. 16, 2015, 2:24 PM
    • The about left-for-dead mortgage REIT sector (REM +2.4%) has been enjoying a big Fed rate hike day, and has added to gains since the news officially came down at 2 ET.
    • Credit-exposed names are leading the way higher: Chimera Investment (CIM +5.7%), Invesco (IVR +2.4%), New York Mortgage (NYMT +2.1%), Western Asset (WMC +5.6%), Anworth (ANH +2.7%), Arlington Asset (AI +4.7%), AG Mortgage (MITT +4.2%), Orchid Island (ORC +5%). MFA Financial (MFA +3.4%)
    • Others: Annaly (NLY +2.1%), American Capital Agency (AGNC +0.8%), CYS Investments, Capstead (CMO +1.6%)
    • ETFs: MORL, REM, MORT, LMBS
    • Previously: Fed projections: 1.4% Fed Funds by the end of 2016 (Dec. 16)
    • Previously: Fed officially puts an end to ZIRP (Dec. 16)
    | Dec. 16, 2015, 2:24 PM | 35 Comments
  • Dec. 16, 2015, 7:01 AM
    | Dec. 16, 2015, 7:01 AM | 2 Comments
MORL Description
The ETRACS Monthly Pay 2xLeveraged Mortgage REIT ETN (NYSE: MORL) ("MORL" or the "ETN") is an exchange-traded note linked to the monthly compounded 2x leveraged performance of the Market Vectors® Global Mortgage REITs Index (the "Index"), reduced by the Accrued Fees. MORL is listed on the NYSE Arca exchange, is denominated in USD, and pays a USD-denominated variable monthly coupon linked to 2 times the cash distributions, if any, on the Index constituents, less any withholding taxes.
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