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Feb. 11, 2015, 9:09 AM
- Mosaic (NYSE:MOS) +1.4% premarket after Q4 earnings more than doubled on higher phosphate and potash sales in anticipation of the spring season.
- MOS expects strong demand to continue, as issues upbeat guidance for volumes of phosphate, its biggest revenue driver; for the current quarter, MOS projects phosphate volumes of 2.8M-3.1M tons vs. 2.7M tons in the year-ago quarter.
- Q4 phosphate sales rose 4% Y/Y to $1.6B, reflecting lower volume but higher finished-product prices; phosphate sales volumes totaled 3.3M tons, beating the company's expected range of 2.5M-2.8M tons.
- Q4 potash sales told the opposite story of higher volume and lower prices, rising 17% Y/Y to $763M; potash sales volumes totaled 2.3M tons, on the high end of the company's projection of 2M-2.3M tons.
- For the current quarter, MOS again expects potash sales volumes of 2M-2.3M tons, down from 2.4M tons last year.
Feb. 11, 2015, 7:03 AM
- Mosaic (NYSE:MOS): Q4 EPS of $0.87 beats by $0.01.
- Revenue of $2.38B (+9.2% Y/Y)
Feb. 10, 2015, 5:30 PM
Feb. 9, 2015, 12:59 PM
- Mosaic (MOS +0.9%) is upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight with a $56 price target at Morgan Stanley, which believes the company's phosphate assets are undervalued on an absolute basis.
- The firm also cites MOS' relative valuation relative to key peer Potash Corp. (NYSE:POT) as "too severe," and a balance sheet with spare capacity on both an absolute and relative basis.
- A key risk to the bullish thesis would be another large U.S. corn crop, Stanley says.
Jan. 19, 2015, 5:26 PM
- "Demand for potash and phosphates exceeded our expectations during the fourth quarter," says CEO Jim Prokopanko. "Customers came to the market in force."
- Mosaic (NYSE:MOS) expects Q4 EPS of $0.83-$0.88, after excluding notable items (which will add another dime to the results) vs. Street estimates at $0.57. The company sees business strengthening further into 2015.
- Full Q4 results are due on February 11.
- Today's news will also be of interest to owners of Potash (NYSE:POT), Agrium (NYSE:AGU), and Intrepid Potash (NYSE:IPI).
Dec. 19, 2014, 2:54 PM
- Potash (POT +1.9%) is upgraded to Buy from Neutral with a $40 price target, up from $38, at UBS, citing the company's strong dividend and improving free cash flow.
- UBS says the planned closure of Mosaic's Carlsbad operations in Jan. 2015 and the current flood at Uralkali's Solikamsk-2 mine could remove 2.4M -3.4M metric tons of combined capacity from the market and provides an opportunity for POT to gain more volumes, which also could lead to higher pricing.
- POT’s dividend yields ~4%, and UBS believes it provides downside protection given that the dividend can be funded even if potash prices remain flat; the firm thinks that over time POT may be able to return excess cash to shareholders through an increased dividend or further share repurchases.
- Other potash producers are higher: MOS +2%, AGU +0.4%, IPI +2.6%.
Dec. 18, 2014, 4:11 PM
- Mosaic (NYSE:MOS) declares $0.25/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
- Forward yield 2.21%
- Payable March 18; for shareholders of record March 5; ex-div March 3.
Nov. 26, 2014, 12:11 PM
- Potash producers Agrium (AGU -2.6%), Potash Corp. (POT -0.3%), Mosaic (MOS -0.2%), CF Industries (CF -1.3%) and Intrepid Potash (IPI -1.1%) continue to give back the gains that followed Uralkali’s mine suspension, and BofA Merrill's downgrade of AGU hasn't helped.
- While BofA remains positive on earnings from nitrogen, it believes potash is oversupplied and global demand growth could regress from 2014's ~11% pace.
- But Stifel analysts are not throwing in the towel on the potash producers, citing potash supply constraints from declining North American producer inventories as well as the potential for the permanent closure of the Russian mine offsetting the negative impact of potentially lower North American planted corn acreage.
Nov. 24, 2014, 7:45 AM
- Uralkali (OTC:URALL) is preparing to restart operations at half of its potash mine in Russia where work was halted last week after an accident, CEO Dmitry Osipov says.
- The governor of the Perm region where the Solikamsk-2 mine is located says the inflow of water at the mine had "practically stopped" and there is no danger to residents of the area, where a large sinkhole has formed.
- POT -2.6% premarket; also watch MOS, AGU, IPI.
Nov. 19, 2014, 3:58 PM
- Potash (POT +1.2%) is upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform with a $40 price target, up from $38.50, at Raymond James after troubles at a mine owned by Russia’s Uralkali forced its closure; in the event Uralkali’s capacity remains handicapped, the firm thinks POT could benefit from a tighter potash market.
- Fertilizer peer Mosaic (MOS +1.7%) is upgraded to Positive by Susquehanna, which believes its potash operating leverage is underappreciated by investors, as the shares went up less than POT yesterday in response to the Uralkali news even as MOS has more relative earnings leverage to an improvement in potash prices than POT.
- Earlier: CF Industries upgraded at Credit Suisse, which sees better industry position
Nov. 19, 2014, 9:55 AM
- A sinkhole is found near Uralkali's (OTC:URALL) Solikamsk-2 potash mine in Russia, where work was suspended yesterday after a water inflow.
- Uralkali does not know how seriously the mine at Solikamsk-2, which accounts for 20% of the company's capacity, would be affected, but a water inflow and resulting sinkhole in 2006 shut another Uralkali mine in the same region permanently.
- North American potash producer shares jumped 2%-5% yesterday, and are up early again today: POT +2.5%, MOS +2.4%, AGU +0.7%, IPI +2.3%.
Nov. 18, 2014, 11:25 AM
- Uralkali (OTC:URALL) shares fell by the most in a year after the potash miner suspended operations and evacuated workers from a potash mine in Russia’s Perm region because of an increase in brine inflow.
- The world’s biggest potash producer says it is monitoring the situation at the Solikamsk-2 mine, while its four other mines continue to operate normally.
- Uralkali's misfortune is sparking gains in North American potash producers: POT +5.1%, MOS +3.4%, AGU +3.4%, IPI +5%.
Oct. 30, 2014, 7:08 AM
- Mosaic (NYSE:MOS): Q3 EPS of $0.56 misses by $0.03.
- Revenue of $2.3B (+21.1% Y/Y)
Oct. 17, 2014, 4:03 PM
- The Mosaic (NYSE:MOS) declares $0.25/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
- Forward yield 2.45%
- Payable Dec. 18; for shareholders of record Dec. 4; ex-div Dec. 2.
Oct. 16, 2014, 2:14 PM
- Ten of 12 U.S. farm retail companies surveyed by Reuters say fertilizer sales this autumn are lower than they were last year, as farmers respond to a drop in crop prices to multi-year lows and a delayed harvest.
- Reductions in fertilizer use of an estimated 10%-50% by volume could hit profits of producers such as Potash Corp. (POT -1.1%) and Mosaic (MOS -0.7%) since U.S. buyers typically pay a premium for some fertilizers such as potash.
- Some U.S. dealers say there is still time for fertilizer sales to recover to last year's levels once farmers complete the harvest, but others fear a slump that could stretch into 2015 as low crop prices push purchases out of reach.
Oct. 2, 2014, 2:59 PM
- Fertilizer producers are mostly lower after Agrium (AGU -1.9%) announced weak guidance for H2 of its FY 2014: POT -2%, MOS -0.9%, OTCPK:YARIY -2.8%, IPI -2.3%, RNF -1.2%, but CF +2.4%.
- Canaccord and Piper Jaffray downwardly revised their 12-month price targets for the stock, by a respective 1.9% to $102 while reiterating a Buy rating and by 4.2% to $92 while maintaining a Neutral rating; however, BMO and RBC each reiterated their Outperform ratings on the stock with respective target prices of $99 and $115.
- Jim Cramer thinks AGU's woes could reverberate throughout the ag sector, at least in the near-term, with selling possibly spread to the likes of Monsanto (MON -0.4%), Syngenta (SYT +0.1%), Deere (DE +0.1%) and Agco (AGCO +1%).
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