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Nov. 23, 2015, 12:30 PM
- "Hazard ahead: The emerging market credit cycle has turned down," is the title of a recent JPMorgan report, arguing credit markets will tighten as the Fed boosts rates.
- A shoe not yet dropped, says the team, is that debt to GDP ratios are not decreasing.
- "Remember that a lot of the credit growth in emerging markets is no more than the flip side of easy money in developed markets," and as the Fed normalizes, this can reverse, though Europe and Japan keeping their feet on the gas pedal should mitigate the turn.
- The ratio of broad emerging market nonfinancial private credit to GDP hit 128% of GDP in Q1, up 51 percentage points from 2007. Exclude China, and the numbers are not nearly as gaudy, but still frothy, and the moves resemble those from that of developed markets in the years leading up to the global financial crisis.
- ETFs: EMB, PCY, TEI, EDF, ELD, EDD, EMLC, GHI, VWOB, EMD, EMCB, EDI, MSD, EMCD, EMHY, HYEM, SBW, LEMB, EMAG, CEMB, EBND, PFEM, EMSH, FEMB
Oct. 2, 2015, 4:32 AM
- Emerging markets are on track to suffer their first annual net outflow since 1988, the Institute of International Finance predicts.
- Foreign inflows are set to halve to $548B this year and outflows are expected to come in at $540B. With local outflows accelerating, net flows will turn negative.
- The flight from emerging markets "has been driven primarily by internal factors, basically reflecting a sustained slowdown in EM growth and amplified by rising uncertainty about China’s economy and policies," the IIF says.
- EMs have also been hit by the commodities rout, to which many are exposed. Weak currencies and political turmoil in countries such as Brazil and Turkey are increasing the risks.
- While those risks remain high, there is little incentive for investors to return to EMs.
- ETFs: EWZ, BRF, BRZU, BZF, EWZS, BRXX, BRAQ, BZQ, BRAZ, BRAF, UBR, DBBR, FBZ, TUR, EMB, PCY, TEI, EDF, ELD, ECON, EDD, EMLC, TKF, GHI, VWOB, CEW, EMD, EDI, MSD, EMHY, HYEM, EMIF, SBW, PXR, FEO, EMQQ, LEMB, EMAG, EMCG, EBND, AYT, PGD, PFEM, JEM, EMEY, EMSH, EMDI, BCHP, FEMB
Oct. 1, 2015, 3:02 PM
- Back in 1988, net capital market outflows were $9B, and they've been positive ever since. This year, according to the Institute of International Finance, net outflows are set to return to the tune of a whopping $540B.
- Meanwhile Federated Investors portfolio manager Ruggero de'Rossi thinks now is the time to buy the dip in emerging market government bonds. The yield spread between sovereign EM debt and comparable U.S. Treasury paper has widened to 420 basis points from a recent low of 250 bps. He likes the risk/reward across a diverse array of EM countries. He's not so bullish on EM corporate debt, however, as many companies have not fully hedged exchange rate exposures.
- ETFs: EMB, PCY, TEI, EDF, ELD, EDD, EMLC, GHI, VWOB, EMD, EDI, MSD, SBW, LEMB, EMAG, EBND, EMSH, FEMB
Aug. 28, 2015, 1:11 PM
- Outflows from emerging market bond funds like EMB hit $4.2B in the week ending Aug. 26, the second-largest amount ever. Overall emerging market net outflows of $10.5B were the largest since early 2008.
- Turning back to bond funds alone, outflows over the last three weeks of $7.5B represent 2.9% of AUM, says Morgan Stanley.
- EMB is lower by more than 5% since a late-April high, and in stocks, EEM is off nearly 20% over the same time frame.
- Previously: Record amount pulled from stock funds (Aug. 28)
- ETFs: EEM, VWO, EDC, EMB, PCY, EDZ, TEI, SCHE, EDF, IEMG, ELD, EDD, EMLC, EMF, MSF, EEV, GHI, VWOB, ADRE, EMD, EDI, EET, EUM, MSD, GMM, SBW, DBEM, LEMB, EMAG, EEME, EBND, EMCR, FEM, XSOE, EWEM, HEEM, EMLB, EMSH, EMSA, EMFT, KEMP, FEMB, KLEM
To produce high current income and as a secondary objective, to seek capital appreciation, through investments primarily in debt securities. Under normal circumstances, at least 65% of the Funds total assets will be invested in debt securities of governmen
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