Thu, Apr. 23, 4:25 PM
Wed, Apr. 22, 5:35 PM
- ACTG, ALGN, ALTR, AMZN, AWAY, BAS, BCR, BGS, BJRI, BLDR, CB, CBI, COF, CPHD, CVTI, CYN, DGII, DV, EFII, ELY, ETFC, ETH, FET, FICO, FII, FR, FSL, GHL, GIMO, GOOG, HA, HBHC, HBI, HUBG, HWAY, JNPR, KLAC, KN, LSTR, MKTO, MMSI, MSCC, MSFT, MTSN, MXIM, MXWL, N, NEM, NTGR, P, PEB, PFG, QDEL, QLIK, RGA, RHI, RMD, RSG, SBAC, SBUX, SFG, SHOR, SIVB, SPNC, SRCL, SWN, SYA, SYNA, TRN, UIS, VCRA, VRSN, WIRE, WRE
Wed, Mar. 25, 12:03 PM
- Chip stocks are particularly hard-hit (SOXX -3.6%) on a rough day for tech. The Nasdaq is down 1.3%, and the S&P 0.7%. Going into today, good earnings reports and ongoing M&A activity had led the Philadelphia Semi Index to rise 10% from its Jan. 30 close; the index remains up nearly 2x from its fall 2012 lows.
- AMD (AMD -7.2%) is a major decliner following a UBS downgrade. AMD rival/GPU giant Nvidia (NVDA -5.2%) and memory giant Micron (MU -3.7%) are also selling off, as are merger partners NXP (NXPI -3.8%) and Freescale (FSL -3.4%), RF chipmakers Avago (AVGO -5.2%), Skyworks (SWKS -5.3%), and Qorvo (QRVO -7.1%), LED/RF chipmaker Cree (CREE -4.1%), and high-flying video processor developer Ambarella (AMBA -4.3%).
- Other decliners include telecom chipmakers/ARM server CPU vendors Cavium (CAVM -4.8%) and AppliedMicro (AMCC -4.4%), microcontroller vendors Atmel (ATML -3.5%), Cypress (CY -5.5%), and STMicroelectronics (STM -3.5%), voice processor developer Audience (ADNC -3.7%), analog/mixed-signal chipmakers Linear (LLTC -3.7%), Maxim (MXIM -3%), and Intersil (ISIL -3.5%), FPGA maker Lattice (LSCC -3.9%), and mixed-signal/wireless charging IC developer IDT (IDTI -5.4%).
- Chip equipment, IP, and foundry providers are also underperforming. Big decliners include ARM (ARMH -4.4%), KLA-Tencor (KLAC -4.2%), Lam Research (LRCX -5.4%), ASML (ASML -4.1%), TowerJazz (TSEM -4.3%), Mattson (MTSN -4.5%), Ultratech (UTEK -4.7%), and Tessera (TSRA -6.1%). ASML has been downgraded to Hold by Banco Santander.
- TSMC (TSM -4.6%) is among the decliners in spite of a Digitimes report stating the foundry giant's sales are expected to rise 0%-5% Q/Q in Q2 - consensus is for a 2% drop - with strong Apple A8 CPU orders offsetting soft Qualcomm Snapdragon 810 orders.
- Chip ETFs: SMH, XSD, PSI, SOXL, USD, SOXS, SSG
Wed, Mar. 18, 12:45 PM
Wed, Mar. 18, 11:16 AM
- JPMorgan reports Samsung is slowing down the pace of its DRAM capacity ramp. The firm reiterates an Overweight rating and $40 target on Micron (MU +0.8%), whose shares have been hit more than once by Samsung spending fears.
- While Micron edges higher, chip equipment maker Lam Research (LRCX -4.3%), which has considerable DRAM exposure, is selling off. Mattson (MTSN -11.8%), Aixtron (AIXG -1.9%), and Axcelis (ACLS -1.1%), other equipment makers that have DRAM exposure, are also lower. Mattson dived around 11AM after initially posting moderate losses.
- Lam, a David Einhorn favorite, offered upbeat commentary about 2015 DRAM capex on its FQ2 CC (transcript), and noted 30% industry bit growth is expected this year.
- Also: 1) Drexel Hamilton has made upbeat comments about DRAM demand after talking with an unnamed Asian memory maker; the firm expects mobile DRAM demand to restore a supply/demand balance later this year. 2) Jefferies (Buy) has cut its Micron target by $5 to $40, predicting Q1 DRAM pricing weakness will continue into Q2 due soft PC demand, before smartphone demand and "corrective actions on the supply side" lead prices to stabilize.
- Yesterday: Micron drops on RBC target cut
Fri, Feb. 13, 9:15 AM| 3 Comments
Thu, Feb. 12, 5:36 PM
Thu, Feb. 12, 4:26 PM| 2 Comments
Wed, Feb. 11, 5:35 PM
Fri, Jan. 16, 7:17 PM
- A day after some industry names outperformed modestly following news TSMC (NYSE:TSM) set a high 2015 capex budget of $11.5B-$12B, chip equipment makers generally traded in-line with a rising tech sector after another one of their big-3 customers, Intel, set a conservative 2015 capex budget of $9.5B-$10.5B.
- TSMC's 2015 budget is well above a 2014 capex level of $9.52B; the world's biggest foundry is both trying to keep up with rising mobile chip orders, and investing heavily to roll out its 16nm FinFET/FinFET+ processes to counter Samsung and Globalfoundries' 14nm FinFET rollouts.
- The midpoint of Intel's 2015 budget is slightly below 2014 spending of $10.1B, which itself was below prior guidance of $10.5B-$11.5B. It's also below 2011-2013 spending of $10.7B-$11B.
- Some cautiousness from Intel might have been expected: Gartner recently forecast industry capex would rise just 0.8% this year to $65.8B, albeit with wafer fab spend rising a healthier 6.7% to $33.7B. Gartner forecast memory capex would rise 13.5% and foundry capex 4.8%, but predicted logic capex (much of it from Intel) would decline 5.3%.
- Also: TSMC has disclosed it sold the 21M-share stake it took in ASML in 2012 for $1.5B, booking a $660M profit along the way. TSMC, Intel, and Samsung each invested in ASML with the goal of accelerating its EUV lithography R&D efforts (viewed as necessary to maintain Moore's Law long-term).
- Between them, Intel, TSMC, and Samsung account for over half of industry capex.
- Chip equipment firms: AMAT, KLAC, LRCX, TER, KLIC, ACLS, UTEK, RTEC, MTSN, ATE, XCRA, OTCPK:TOELF
Oct. 23, 2014, 4:16 PM| Comment!
Oct. 22, 2014, 5:35 PM
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Jul. 25, 2014, 4:58 PM
- KLA-Tencor (KLAC -1.9%) guided on its FQ4 CC (transcript) for FQ1 revenue of $590M-$650M (-6% Y/Y at the midpoint) and EPS of $0.34-$0.54, well below a consensus of $740M and $0.88. Bookings are expected to drop to $600M-$800M from an FQ4 level of $898M (topped guidance of $625M-$825M).
- Several chip equipment peers underperformed following the numbers on a weak day for stocks. AMAT -2.4%. ASML -2%. RTEC -3.5%. UCTT -3.2%. MTSN -2.3%. The group has had a good run this year on optimism about industry consolidation and a strong up-cycle.
- Discussing its guidance, KLA observed delivery for major FQ4 orders for 14nm equipment from a foundry client (likely Samsung or Globalfoundries) isn't expected to start until FQ2. The company added it's generally cautious about 2014 foundry revenue.
- But KLA expects revenue growth to resume in FQ2, and is optimistic about 2015 demand, as foundry clients (responsible for 68% of FQ4 orders) invest heavily to ramp 16nm and 14nm production. Samsung and Globalfoundries have big 14nm plans for 2015; TSMC is attempting to counter with its 16nm FinFET+ process.
- FQ4 gross margin was 56%, missing KLA's guidance midpoint by 150 bps and contributing to an EPS miss. KLA blames product mix and higher-than-expected services costs. GM is expected to fall to 54%-55% in FQ1 due to lower revenue.
Jul. 24, 2014, 4:31 PM
Jul. 23, 2014, 5:35 PM
- ABAX, ACTG, ALGN, ALTR, AMZN, ATRC, AWAY, BAS, BCOV, BCR, BIDU, BJRI, BLDR, CB, CBI, CERN, CLS, COLM, CTCT, CYN, DECK, DGII, DLB, DTLK, ECHO, ELY, EPR, FET, FICO, FII, FLEX, FSL, GIMO, HBHC, IM, INFA, KLAC, LEG, LOGM, LSCC, MITK, MKTO, MLNX, MSCC, MTD, MTSN, MXIM, N, NR, NTGR, OLN, P, PACB, PEB, PFG, PFPT, QLGC, QLIK, RFMD, RGA, RGC, RSG, RVBD, SBAC, SBUX, SIVB, SPNC, SRCL, SWFT, SWI, SYA, TPX, TSRO, UHS, V, VR, VRSN, WOOF, WRE, WRI
Jul. 8, 2014, 6:27 PM
- Applied Materials (AMAT) "made a compelling case that technology inflections could become tailwinds [for chip equipment demand] at the FinFET and 3D NAND transitions," writes Credit Suisse's John Pitzer after taking in the firm's analyst day (held at the Semicon West conference).
- Pitzer adds AMAT sees $10B+ in cumulative revenue opportunities from the deposition and etching markets related to 3D NAND flash investments. However, he thinks Lam Research (LRCX), which just offered a bullish analyst day outlook of its own, is a better 3D NAND play.
- Cowen's Timothy Arcuri argues strong FinFET (3D transistor) and 3D NAND capacity targets, together with healthy maintenance spend, "argues more re-rating for AMAT and the sector in general." At the same time, he's worried about the impact of 3D NAND growth on NAND supply, and thus the multiples afforded to SanDisk (SNDK), which has rallied strongly this year.
- AMAT remains confident the Tokyo Electron (TOELF) merger will close this year. The post-merger company will call itself Eteris. Analyst Robert Maire thinks AMAT/Tokyo will buy Entegris (ENTG) once the deal closes.
- KLA-Tencor (KLAC), though hiking its June quarter guidance, is a little cautious about near-term demand. "This is a quarter where we believe we're in a bit of a pause right now in the industry ... Bookings that we got, while strong, were really for foundry, and more for delivery and revenues that we'll see in calendar '15." Berenberg issued a cautious note last week.
- Trade group SEMI now expects total chip equipment spend to grow 20.8% in 2014 to $38.4B, and 10.8% in 2015 to $42.6B.
- Other industry names: ASML, UTEK, RTEC, KLIC, MTSN, ASMI, MKSI
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Mattson Technology designs, manufactures, and markets semiconductor wafer processing equipment used in the fabrication of integrated circuits. Its product portfolio encompasses dry strip, rapid thermal processing and etch equipment products.
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