The Bull Case For Mavenir Systems
Ben Axler • 22 Comments
Ben Axler • 22 Comments
May 10, 2015, 5:35 PM
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Apr. 29, 2015, 1:11 PM
- Mitel's (NASDAQ:MITL) acquisition of carrier VoLTE software provider Mavenir (MVNR) is on the books. As previously announced, Mavenir investors will receive either a mixture of cash/stock worth $17.55/share or 1.83 Mitel shares for each share they own.
- Along with the announcement, Mitel states it has closed on a $710M credit facility that features a $660M term loan sporting an interest rate of LIBOR + 4%. Mitel has used the facility's proceeds to "finance the acquisition of Mavenir, repay the approximately US$280.2 million outstanding under Mitel's existing credit facilities and to repay the approximately US$27.3 million outstanding under Mavenir's existing credit facilities."
- Mitel has sold off following the announcement; its Q1 report arrives on May 7. Mavenir issued a Q1 warning on April 10.
Apr. 10, 2015, 10:23 AM
- Mavenir (NYSE:MVNR) now expects Q1 revenue of $27M-$28.5M, far below prior guidance of $39M-$41M and a $40.2M consensus. EPS guidance has been cut to -$0.41 to -$0.47 from -$0.12 to -$0.17 (consensus is at -$0.14), and gross margin guidance to 50%-53% from 60%-62%.
- Bookings still rose 31% Y/Y, leading the quarter-ending backlog to top $100M. Two 4G customers were added, and full-year sales, GM, and EPS guidance is reiterated.
- The VoLTE infrastructure software provider blames the warning on "a shift in the timing of operator launches in Europe and timing issues associated with the pending acquisition of Mavenir" by Mitel (NASDAQ:MITL). Full Q1 results arrive on May 11.
- Mitel, set to buy Mavenir in a cash/stock deal ($11.08/share in cash + 0.675 Mitel shares for each Mavenir share), is seeing bigger losses than Mavenir. The company has named a new sales chief and a new marketing chief this week.
Mar. 2, 2015, 6:10 AM
- Mitel (NASDAQ:MITL) will acquire Mavenir (NYSE:MVNR) for cash and stock worth $17.94/share based on Friday's close - a 23% premium.
- For Mitel, which primarily serves the enterprise with UC (unified communications), the deal expands its footprint to more than 130 service providers and mobile operators, including 15 of the top 20 mobile operators worldwide. It says acquiring the VoLTE and RCS pioneer will expand its total addressable market by approximately $14B by 2018. (LightReading)
- A webcast, at 8:30 AM ET, can be heard here.
- Here are the presentation slides
- Note: On Jan. 13, SA author Ben Axler recommended Mavenir as his top long idea for 2015 and beyond.
Feb. 26, 2015, 4:29 PM
- Mavenir Systems (NYSE:MVNR): Q4 EPS of -$0.21 misses by $0.04.
- Revenue of $33.72M (+24.2% Y/Y) misses by $0.6M.
Feb. 25, 2015, 5:35 PM
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Feb. 12, 2015, 11:03 AM
- Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO) beat FQ2 estimates on the back of 8% Y/Y product growth (aided by favorable comps), offered in-line guidance (better than feared, given forex pressures), and reported a 5% increase in product orders. Enterprise, SMB, and public sector orders respectively rose 10%, 8%, and 7%, and service provider orders dropping 1% (compares with a 10% FQ1 service provider drop).
- Cisco still isn't modeling a rebound in service provider or emerging markets demand for several quarters, and forecasts global service provider capex will be down by a mid-single digit % in 2015. But it's more optimistic about enterprise, public sector, U.S., and EMEA demand.
- Telecom and networking equipment vendors, many of whom have been hit hard by capex pressures, are rallying following Cisco's numbers, as are a couple of component/chip suppliers. The Nasdaq is up 0.7%.
- Notable gainers include Alcatel-Lucent (ALU +4.7%), Aruba (ARUN +3.4%), Ruckus (RKUS +5.1%), Sonus (SONS +3.4%), Extreme Networks (EXTR +3.4%), Brocade (BRCD +1.9%), Adtran (ADTN +3%), Infoblox (BLOX +2.7%), Finisar (FNSR +2.1%), Cavium (CAVM +2%), Ixia (XXIA +1.9%), and Mavenir (MVNR +3.4%).
- Cisco's 18% Y/Y wireless product sales growth appears to be going over well with Aruba and Ruckus investors, and its 11% switching growth with Extreme and Brocade investors.
Feb. 2, 2015, 2:50 PM
- Tech companies posting major gains today include fiber access equipment vendor Zhone (ZHNE +5.3%), wireless charging tech developer Energous (WATT +4.6%), 4G infrastructure software vendor Mavenir (MVNR +5.8%), online content provider Demand Media (DMD +6.2%), and online health insurance seller eHealth (EHTH +3.9%).
- Major tech decliners include several Chinese Internet names. Specifically, online retailers Vipshop (VIPS -4.9%) and Dangdang (DANG -4.1%), auto site Bitauto (BITA -6.4%), mobile game publisher Sky-Mobi (MOBI -4%), and social media/gaming platform YY (YY -6.3%).
- Other notable decliners include cybersecurity hardware firm KEYW (KEYW -4.9%), telecom/ARM server chipmaker AppliedMicro (AMCC -10.1%), specialty foundry TowerJazz (TSEM -4.7%), cloud healthcare software firm Castlight (CSLT -4.1%), cloud marketing software firm Marketo (MKTO -4.5%), online coupon code platform RetailMeNot (SALE -4.7%), optical component vendor NeoPhotonics (NPTN -6%), and supply chain software firm Manhattan Associates (MANH -5.1%). The Nasdaq is down 0.3%.
- Previously: Solar stocks jump amid oil/energy stock rally
Jan. 13, 2015, 11:15 AM
- Mavenir (NYSE:MVNR) is acquiring telecom signaling software vendor Ulticom from P-E firm Platinum Equity for an undisclosed sum. The deal is expected to be closed by month's end.
- Mavenir notes Ulticom's offerings for the fast-growing Diameter signaling market (driven by 4G network upgrades) have been deployed by ten tier-one carriers. It also calls Ulticom's products "competitively well-positioned" for network functions virtualization (NFV) deployments, and praises the company's "deep channel relationships." Sonus and F5 also compete in the Diameter signaling market.
- Along with the acquisition, Mavenir has reiterated Q4 revenue guidance of $33.5M-$35M, but cut gross margin guidance to 55.5%-58% from 58.5%-62.5%.
- The company blames postponed purchases of two high-margin capacity expansions. Q4 op. profit guidance has been lowered to -$3.8M to -$5.4M from -$1.4M to $0.3M. Full Q4 results arrive on Feb. 26.
- With Ulticom in tow, Mavenir is guiding for Q1 revenue of $39M-$43M and EPS of -$0.08 to -$0.17, and 2015 revenue of $185M-$195M and EPS of $0.28-$0.36. The 2015 consensus (excludes the acquisition, naturally) was at $159.3M and -$0.12 going into today.
Dec. 29, 2014, 11:38 AM
- Wunderlich's Matthew Robison has launched coverage on VoIP/4G diameter signaling hardware/software provider Sonus (SONS +1.8%) with a Buy rating and $5 target, and mobile infrastructure software provider Mavenir (MVNR +0.6%) with a Buy rating and $18 target.
- Regarding Sonus, Robison cites rising customer adds, expected margin and EPS growth, CEO Raymond Dolan's purchases, and the fact VoIP session border controller revenue has eclipsed legacy VoIP gateway revenue.
- Sonus is moderately higher, and not far removed from a 52-week high of $4.25.
Oct. 27, 2014, 4:21 PM
- Mavenir Systems (NYSE:MVNR): Q3 EPS of -$0.03 beats by $0.09.
- Revenue of $34.05M (+31.1% Y/Y) beats by $1.84M.
Aug. 18, 2014, 2:29 PM| Aug. 18, 2014, 2:29 PM
Jul. 28, 2014, 4:08 PM
- Mavenir Systems (NYSE:MVNR): Q2 EPS of -$0.04 beats by $0.07.
- Revenue of $33.3M (+29.3% Y/Y) beats by $3.25M.
May 7, 2014, 5:43 PM
- Mavenir Systems (MVNR): Q1 EPS of -$0.05 beats by $0.26.
- Revenue of $28.7M (+27.9% Y/Y) beats by $1.8M.
May 5, 2014, 12:26 PM
- In addition to missing Q1 estimates, BroadSoft (BSFT -20%) is guiding for Q2 revenue of $48M-$52M and EPS of $0.17-$0.31. While the former is in-line with a $50.4M consensus, the latter is below a $0.33 consensus.
- The company is reiterating full-year guidance for revenue of $206M-$212M and EPS of $1.26-$1.46; the consensus is at $208.8M and $1.35.
- Gross margin fell to 76% in Q1 from 83% in Q4 and 80% a year ago, taking a toll on EPS. Opex rose 20% Y/Y to $40.1M, outpacing revenue growth of 11%.
- Carrier VoIP software rival Mavenir (MVNR -4.2%) is following BroadSoft lower ahead of its Wednesday Q1 report.
- Q1 results, PR
Feb. 20, 2014, 4:37 PM
- Mavenir Systems (MVNR): Q4 EPS of -$0.08 beats by $0.04.
- Revenue of $27.1M beats by $0.46M.