• Apr. 21, 2015, 10:35 AM
    • And why not, with the ECB pledging to buy €60B of it monthly for at least the next year-plus?
    • For the eurozone as a whole, government debt rose to a record 91.9% of GDP in 2014, up from 90.9% a year earlier. Greece naturally leads the way, with debt up to 177.1% of GDP from 175% in 2013. Since the last bailout to end all bailouts (2012), Greece's debt/GDP ratio is up a whopping 25 percentage points, and the country stands today on the verge of either bailout number three or another default and maybe exit from EMU.
    • Source, Bloomberg
    • Bill Gross is out on Twitter calling German 10-year Bunds - currently yielding 10 basis points - the short of a lifetime ... Even better than the pound in 1993. The only question, he says, is timing. Another widowmaker trade?
    • GREK -3.7%, NBG -9.8%
    | Apr. 21, 2015, 10:35 AM | 32 Comments
  • Apr. 21, 2015, 9:22 AM
    | Apr. 21, 2015, 9:22 AM
  • Apr. 17, 2015, 9:21 AM
    | Apr. 17, 2015, 9:21 AM
  • Apr. 16, 2015, 7:58 AM
    • A big move even for notoriously volatile Greek debt, the yield on the country's two-year notes soar nearly 400 basis points to over 27%  in the wake of another downgrade and growing fear the country will default again. The yield on the 10-year notes are up more than 100 basis points to just under 13%.
    • Source: WSJ
    • Making default and/or EMU exit even more likely this time around is the fact that most believe the rest of Europe has walled itself off from any contagion (see Stan Druckenmiller's thoughts).
    • Previously: S&P cuts Greece's credit rating (April 16)
    • GREK -1.9% premarket. NBG no trades.
    | Apr. 16, 2015, 7:58 AM | 1 Comment
  • Apr. 15, 2015, 9:18 AM
    | Apr. 15, 2015, 9:18 AM
  • Apr. 2, 2015, 3:06 AM
    • Looking to end its standoff with creditors to unlock funding, Athens has handed the eurozone and IMF a more detailed plan for revising its bailout program.
    • The list is a "very long way from being a basis (for a deal)," a eurozone official said. "They should negotiate in competence and good faith with the institutions first, and then we will see."
    • Yesterday, the ECB raised its cap on emergency liquidity assistance that Greek banks can draw from the country's central bank by €700M, increasing the ELA ceiling to €71.8B. The central bank has been raising the cap in increments to keep pressure on Greece to strike a deal.
    • ETFs: GREK
    | Apr. 2, 2015, 3:06 AM | 10 Comments
  • Mar. 31, 2015, 8:20 AM
    • Greece needs to reach a new bailout deal with the troika soon as it's set to soon run out of cash, but, according to Reuters, negotiations in Brussels have ended without an agreement. One Greek official says the process isn't broken, just slow-moving, and - assuming progress is made in Athens on reforms - talks could open up again next week.
    • Goldman says the risk of Grexit is rising sharply, and with it the risk of unintended consequences. “Deposit flight exceeds previous episodes and the resulting tightening in financial conditions is a severe shock for an economy,” says Goldman's Robin Brooks, but for now the market is ignoring as there's been no spread to the rest of the EU periphery.
    • Mark Mobius, meanwhile, is a buyer now. "Greece will remain in the eurozone. There is no question." The banking sector looks particularly tasty, says Mobius, and he's long National Bank of Greece (NYSE:NBG).
    • GREK +1.7% premarket
    | Mar. 31, 2015, 8:20 AM | 11 Comments
  • Mar. 26, 2015, 12:34 PM
    • Roughly €8B exited the banking system in February, bringing total deposits to €152.4B, the lowest level since June 2005. Over the last three month period, about €25B in deposits has been pulled out amid fears of capital controls or an exit from EMU.
    • In the meantime, the government is rushing to put together a list of promised reforms necessary to secure more creditor cash to keep paying bills, and the ECB yesterday boosted the amount of money Greek banks can borrow under the ELA to €71.1B from €69.8B.
    • Source: WSJ
    • GREK -1.4%, NBG -3.7%
    | Mar. 26, 2015, 12:34 PM | 3 Comments
  • Mar. 25, 2015, 3:05 AM
    • Unless it secures fresh aid, Greece risks running out of cash by April 20, a source told Reuters, leaving it little time to work out a deal with its EU creditors.
    • Earlier this week, Greek PM Alexis Tsipras discussed reforms with Germany's Angela Merkel and promised to present a detailed list of proposed overhauls by Monday, but new pressures are popping up.
    • Yesterday, the ECB instructed Greece's largest banks to refrain from increasing their exposure to Greek government debt, posing a severe challenge to the nation’s government.
    • ETFs: GREK
    | Mar. 25, 2015, 3:05 AM | 6 Comments
  • Mar. 24, 2015, 3:34 PM
    • The Greek government may not have the cash to meet a €460M repayment due to the IMF on April 9, says Deutsche Bank, noting tax revenues running more than €1B below target.
    • For Athens to secure new funds, parliament will have to approve a long list of reforms demanded by the country's creditors, a tough task given the lack of progress since February's hail-mary agreement, which - it turns out - kicked the can less far down the road than even the pessimists thought.
    • As for the banks, they're rapidly running out of liquidity, with deposit flight rising to new highs alongside increased talk of capital controls.
    • Deutsche concludes on an optimistic note: "Our baseline remains that a resolution can be reached."
    • GREK +3.7%, NBG flat
    | Mar. 24, 2015, 3:34 PM | 21 Comments
  • Mar. 23, 2015, 9:11 AM
    | Mar. 23, 2015, 9:11 AM | 2 Comments
  • Mar. 19, 2015, 9:16 AM
    | Mar. 19, 2015, 9:16 AM
  • Mar. 19, 2015, 8:10 AM
    • Estimates say banks lost between €350M-€450M yesterday after a statement by the head of the Eurogroup about the chance of imposing capital controls, according to a report from Stratfor.
    • Meanwhile, a poll says 58% of Greeks believe Syriza is not following through on its campaign promises, and 50.5% aren't pleased with the course of the country's debt negotiations.
    • GREK -3.2%, NBG -6.6% premarket
    | Mar. 19, 2015, 8:10 AM | 14 Comments
  • Mar. 18, 2015, 12:45 PM
    | Mar. 18, 2015, 12:45 PM
  • Mar. 18, 2015, 9:12 AM
    | Mar. 18, 2015, 9:12 AM
  • Mar. 17, 2015, 1:19 PM
    • The next headline risk could come Monday, says Morgan Stanley, after Greek PM Tsipras meets with Angela Merkel in Berlin.
    • "The economy is now shrinking, tax revenues are falling short of targets, bank deposits are leaving the system and political volatility seems on the rise, both domestically and in the relations with official lenders."
    • While not believing Greece wants to exit EMU, a misstep could force the country out, says Morgan. With a funding gap, no backstop, and no market access, paying the IMF loan and interest on the Greek bonds held by the ECB could become challenging.
    • While a Grexit won't be a non-event, says the team, the impact will be more easily contained than had it happened a couple of years ago. It could even be positive for European growth.
    • GREK +2.6%, NBG +0.8%
    | Mar. 17, 2015, 1:19 PM | 5 Comments
Company Description
National Bank of Greece provides financial services. It include retail & commercial banking, investment management, investment banking, insurance, investment activities and securities trading.
Sector: Financial
Industry: Money Center Banks
Country: United States