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Jul. 15, 2015, 4:18 PM
- Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) reports it added 900K net subscribers in the U.S. to smash its guidance for 600K adds.
- International net subs added were 2.37M vs. 1.90M guided.
- Total Netflix memberships now are at 65.55M.
- Guidance for Q3 of 2015 is for 1.15M U.S. adds and 2.40M global.
- Total streaming contribution margin was 16.7% vs. 15.4% expected and 17.7% in Q1. The metric is closely watched by analysts with significant upside seen over time. HBO has reported streaming contribution rate of ~39% and Netflix sees a U.S. contribution margin rate of 40% by 2020.
- Free cash flow of -$229M is reported vs. -$59M expected and -$163M last quarter.
- Netflix expects to increase the percentage of original content spending.
- The company highlighted its move into original films. The first hits theaters in October.
- Previously: Netflix beats by $0.02, misses on revenue (Jul. 15 2015)
- Q2 shareholder letter (.pdf)
- NFLX +9.72% after hours to $107.61.
Jul. 15, 2015, 4:11 PM
- Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX): Q2 EPS of $0.06 beats by $0.02.
- Revenue of $1.64B (+22.4% Y/Y) misses by $10M.
Jul. 15, 2015, 1:07 PM
- Charter Communications (CHTR +2%) and Time Warner Cable (TWC +1.3%) are on the move this afternoon as Charter draws an important ally in its TWC takeover: Netflix (NFLX -2.2%) is endorsing the deal, telling the FCC of "substantial public interest benefit."
- Charter is offering free interconnection with content/longhaul providers until December 2018, and that's enough to win Netflix's support for the TWC deal -- if Charter keeps that promise.
- "Charter's new peering policy is a welcome and significant departure from the efforts of some ISPs to collect access tolls on the Internet," Netflix's letter reads.
- Netflix's opposition to Comcast's deal for TWC is believed to have held a lot of weight in the breakup of that takeover.
Jul. 14, 2015, 5:35 PM
Jul. 13, 2015, 4:32 PM
- "When the company announced a confusing merger with Alcatel-Lucent ... we used the opportunity to exit with a healthy gain," writes David Einhorn in his Q2 letter, explaining Greenlight Capital's unloading of its Nokia (NYSE:NOK) position.
- Regarding his decision to exit EMC, Einhorn cites "the reduced odds of any favorable change to the corporate structure and increasing concerns about a lack of growth in the storage business." EMC is 4 months removed from formally stating it doesn't plan to spin off its 80% VMware stake.
- Regarding Marvell (NASDAQ:MRVL), a position held for years, Einhorn cites weak PC demand as a reason for exiting following a 15% compounded annual return. His disclosure comes on a day Marvell rose 5.4% thanks to a report of buyout interest from a Chinese investment firm.
- Echoing the bullish arguments he has made for rival Lam Research (NASDAQ:LRCX), Einhorn says he took a small position in Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT) out of a belief AMAT's core etch/deposition equipment markets will outgrow the broader chip equipment industry "due to the increased use of 'multi-patterning' to produce chips at geometries below [20nm]." He predicts results will improve as management turns its attention from the abandoned Tokyo Electron merger towards "growth and cost savings opportunities." With Einhorn's help, AMAT rose 2.9% today.
- "It's a cyclical business and, regrettably, we missed the turn of the cycle," says Einhorn about Micron (NASDAQ:MU), Greenlight's biggest Q2 loser. However, he still thinks the DRAM industry is acting more rationally following consolidation, notes shares trade at "less than 12x annualized trough earnings and less than 5x prior peak earnings," and predicts future cycles will have higher peaks and troughs.
- Over the long run, Einhorn expects Micron ($19.1B market cap) to be worth more than Netflix (NFLX - $42.9B market cap), whose recent surge he considers quite unjustified. "In today's market, the best performing stocks are companies with exciting stories where accountability is in the distant future." He adds Season 3 of House of Cards "appeared to be scripted to compete with Ambien,"
- Worth noting: While Einhorn has a good track record going long, his short picks have been more hit-and-miss.
Jul. 13, 2015, 11:18 AM
- Netflix (NFLX +4.1%) is over $700 as the stock appears on its way to a record close ahead of the company's Q2 earnings report slated for Wednesday.
- Goldman Sachs joins the cavalcade of investment firms lifting price targets on the streaming juggernaut by pushing its PT up to $780 from $620.
- The investment firm sees the total addressable market for Netflix at 460M by 2020. Assigning a penetration of 24% yields a GS forecast of 112M international subs in five years.
- The consensus estimate for NFLX earnings stand at revenue of $1.65B and EPS of $0.04 ($0.28 on a pre-split basis).
- The company guided for 600K Q2 net new subscribers in the U.S. and 1.9M net global subs.
Jul. 9, 2015, 5:29 PM
- There's been little news coming out of secretive Sun Valley -- where media moguls gather at the Allen & Co. conference for "summer camp" and sometimes rearrange billions of dollars with game-changing M&A -- but John Malone today dropped more hints about content consolidation.
- While media distribution companies have more obvious benefits from consolidation, Malone -- who has hands in Liberty Global (NASDAQ:LBTYA), Liberty Media (NASDAQ:LMCA), Liberty Interactive (NASDAQ:QVCA), Charter (NASDAQ:CHTR) and Starz (NASDAQ:STRZA) -- said economies can apply to content too.
- "It's all about global scale," he told CNBC. "If you want to be a meaningful player in most of any of these media communication businesses, you have to think about it."
- And while speculation boils about a tie-up between Malone's Starz (STRZA) and Lions Gate (NYSE:LGF) after the two swapped stock, Malone focused on the educational side: "I'm an engineer; what the hell do I know about content? Trying to understand where these ideas come from, how they get created and produced. The development of stories is really going to be important in this random-access world that Reed Hastings (NASDAQ:NFLX) is driving us into."
- Malone said Netflix changed the game, and that his companies "missed the boat a little bit" on over-the-top offerings.
- Today: NFLX +2.4%; LGF +0.9%; QVCA +0.3%; CHTR +0.2%.
Jul. 7, 2015, 8:59 AM
- Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) is up 0.7% premarket after a big price target raise from Raymond James.
- The firm set its target for the stock to $730, up from its previous $585. Shares are trading premarket at $666.35.
- Raymond James maintains an Outperform rating on the stock.
- The past few weeks have seen some heavy bullishness from some analysts. BTIG hiked its own price target to $950 from $600, and Oppenheimer put its target at $800 from $610. MKM Partners raised its price target to $885 from $690.
- On the other hand, SocGen showed more caution, downgrading to Sell on June 24 with a $585 target, and Citigroup downgraded to Neutral the next day with a $722 target.
Jun. 25, 2015, 7:57 AM| Jun. 25, 2015, 7:57 AM | 15 Comments
Jun. 24, 2015, 11:00 AM
- Carl Icahn says he sold off his remaining position in Netflix (NFLX +2.2%).
- A SEC filing on his firm's position won't be filed until the end of the quarter, but Icahn conveniently provided the update via Twitter.
- Icahn was a buyer of the streaming juggernaut at a sub-$60 level in 2012 and has sold pieces off along the way.
- Previously: Netflix sets 7-for-1 split (Jun. 23 2015)
Jun. 23, 2015, 4:37 PM
- Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) announces a seven-for-one stock split.
- The development was widely anticipated after the company increased its share issuance allowance last month.
- Shares of the streamer will begin trading at their new level on July 15.
- NFLX +1.58% after hours
Jun. 22, 2015, 8:18 AM
- BTIG Research increases the price target of Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) to $950 from $600 on its view the "breakdown" in the traditional media ecosystem will directly benefit the company.
- While most upgrades on Netflix from Wall Street firms have focused on the accelerated pace of Netflix's international expansion, BTIG thinks there is also upside in the U.S. to grow substantially past 50M subscribers.
- BTIG forecasts 140M global subscribers by 2020.
- On the topic of profits, BTIG thinks Netflix can expand average revenue per user at scale.
- Previously: Sky-high PT on Netflix from Oppy (Jun. 19 2015)
- NFLX +1.45% premarket to $666.90 - a level still 42% short of the BTIG price target.
Jun. 19, 2015, 8:41 AM
- Oppenheimer raises its price target on Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) to $800 from $610.
- The PT marks a Street high from a major firm (Pivotal Research is at $850) and is based off of new projections on Netflix international subscriber growth.
- Earnings estimates from Oppy on NFLX are for 2016 revenue of $8.45B vs. $8.42B consensus and EPS of $3.45.
- Naturally, the investment firm has the streamer rated at Outperform.
- NFLX +1.18% premarket to $671.02
Jun. 15, 2015, 1:42 PM
- Netflix (NFLX -1.9%) trades lower after Alibaba announces plans to develop a new streaming service in China.
- A fragmented market in the nation and ongoing issues with piracy have held back Netflix from making bold projections for the region, although some analysts have assigned it a generous penetration rate in forecasting global subscriber growth.
- Netflix is using partnership with Wasu and BesTV to test the Chinese waters.
Jun. 14, 2015, 11:19 AM
- Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) is planning to build China's version of Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) and HBO (NYSE:TWX) via a new service called Tmall Box Office.
- "We want to create a whole new family entertainment experience," Alibaba's Liu Chunning told reporters in Shanghai.
- TBO will launch in about two months, with content bought from China and other countries, as well as in-house productions.
- Related tickers: Tencent (OTCPK:TCEHY), Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU), Sohu (NASDAQ:SOHU)
Jun. 10, 2015, 1:45 PM
- Trading volume on Netflix (NFLX +4.9%) is already 3X normal activity as investors pushed the stock to fresh all-time highs before it settled back a bit.
- Despite wide anticipation, a move by the company to increase the amount of stock it can issue has put a fresh charge into shares.
- A new deal with Marriott International and a price target hike by UBS to $722 are also adding to the positive vibe on the streaming juggernaut.
- NFLX hit an intra-day high of $692.79.
- Previously: Netflix sets the table for stock split (June 9)
Netflix Inc operates as an internet television network providing TV shows & movies which include original series, documentaries & feature films. The Company's business segments are Domestic streaming, International streaming and Domestic DVD.
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