Wed, Feb. 4, 3:47 PM
- National Oilwell Varco (NOV -3.6%) is slammed by at least three analyst downgrades and multiple price target reductions, as Q4 results show a declining order book that the analysts believe will remain challenged throughout 2015.
- In cutting shares to Neutral from Accumulate with a $49 price target, down from $74, Global Hunter foresees minimal newbuild orders for both onshore and offshore rigs until oil prices have rebounded substantially and rig counts have begun to recover, which it does not expect in the next few quarters.
- Credit Suisse lowers its share price target to a Street-low $40, as guidance of ~$7B in revenue out of backlog this year against an outlook of less than $2B in orders this year and the same in 2016 points to a dramatic drop in rig systems revenues.
Tue, Feb. 3, 9:17 AM
- National Oilwell Varco (NYSE:NOV) -2.3% premarket after posting better than expected Q4 earnings on strong growth in its wellbore technologies and productions segments, but warning of weakness this year tied to the decline in oil prices.
- "Looking into 2015 we face a very challenging market. Our customers are sharply reducing their oilfield activity and expenditures," CEO Clay Williams says.
- Sales in the rig segment, NOV's biggest, grew 7% to $2.56B, while rig-aftermarket revenue rose 12% to $850M; wellbore technologies revenue grew 12% to $1.53B, while sales in the completion and productions solutions business gained 15% to $1.33B.
- But in a clear sign of the industry downturn, the backlog for NOV's biggest division, rig systems, fell 13% Y/Y and 17% Q/Q to $12.5B; the backlog for completion and production equipment rose 9% to $1.78B.
Tue, Feb. 3, 7:05 AM
Mon, Feb. 2, 5:30 PM
Wed, Jan. 28, 12:33 PM
- National Oilwell Varco (NOV -4.9%) hits a 52-week low after shares are downgraded to Underperform from Neutral with a $43 price target, down from $60, at Credit Suisse, which says NOV appears to be the most negatively impacted stock by many negative data points coming through its 2-3 year outlook.
- The firm says NOV is an exceptionally well-managed company, but believes the rig systems business - 44% of estimated 2014 EBIT - will be hurt by an expected lack of new deepwater rig orders through 2016 and its exposure to slowing North American and international activity due to lower oil prices.
Fri, Jan. 9, 7:55 AM
- Oil and gas companies could cut E&P spending in North America by 30% or more this year if U.S. crude oil prices continue to trade at $50-$60/bbl, Barclays estimates on the basis of a survey of 225 oil and gas companies.
- The firm expects U.S. onshore rig count to fall by 500 rigs over the year to ~1,250 rigs by the end of 2015.
- Barclays says this is only the seventh time in the 30-year history of its survey that global spending is estimated to fall, adding that spending rose by more than 10% the following year after almost every decline.
- In the oilfield services group (NYSEARCA:OIH), the firm initiates Halliburton (NYSE:HAL), Baker Hughes (NYSE:BHI), National Oilwell Varco (NYSE:NOV) and FMC Tech (NYSE:FTI) at Overweight, and Forum Energy Tech (NYSE:FET) and Dril-Quip (NYSE:DRQ) at Underweight; Schlumberger (NYSE:SLB), Cameron (NYSE:CAM), Weatherford (NYSE:WFT) and Superior Energy (NYSE:SPN) are started at Equal Weight.
- ETFs: XLE, ERX, VDE, XOP, ERY, DIG, DUG, IYE, XES, IEO, IEZ, PXE, FENY, PXJ, RYE, FXN, DDG
Tue, Jan. 6, 10:37 AM
- Citigroup analyst Scott Gruber says now could be time for longer-term investors to bulk up on oil services stocks (NYSEARCA:OIH), taking the contrarian view that falling capital spending forecasts and looming bankruptcies by some E&P companies could portend that the industry’s shakeout is closer at hand.
- Meanwhile, Gruber says oil services stocks tend to stop falling as oil reaches "unsustainably low” levels, and investors appear to be through much of their selling since valuations have fallen so low.
- Oil services companies generally have been hit twice as hard as integrated oil majors during the past three months; related tickers include SLB, HAL, NOV, BHI, CAM, ESV, FTI, HP, TS, OII.
Mon, Jan. 5, 12:18 PM
- Energy stocks severely underperform the broader market, with the sector -4.2% vs. the S&P 500's -1.4%, as U.S. oil prices briefly slip below $50/bbl for the first time since April 2009; Nymex crude recently was -4.4% at $50.37, while Brent crude -5.9% at $53.08.
- Among the day's biggest losers: DNR -9%, RIG -7.6%, NBR -4.8%, CHK -5.9%, SDRL -9.1%, SD -12.3%, NOV -5.9%, PSX -6.2%, APA -5.9%, DVN -4.4%, EOG -6%, SU -5.2%, OXY -4.2%, APC -8.7%, PWE -9%, ECA -5.5%, MRO -5.3%.
- Global oil majors, which have been seen as less vulnerable to falling oil prices, are posting big losses: XOM -2.7%, COP -4.5%, CVX -3.8%, BP -5.8%, RDS.A -4.6%, TOT -6.5%.
- ETFs: USO, XLE, OIL, UCO, ERX, VDE, OIH, SCO, XOP, ERY, FCG, DIG, PBW, BNO, GASL, DTO, DBO, DUG, IYE, XES, IEO, QCLN, IEZ, UWTI, PXE, USL, PXI, FENY, DWTI, PXJ, DNO, PSCE, RYE, SZO, PUW, FXN, OLO, DDG, HECO, TWTI, OLEM
Dec. 23, 2014, 6:19 PM
- Although the energy sector led today's stock advance, a raft of companies downgraded by Global Hunter mostly took it on the chin - none more so than Key Energy (NYSE:KEG), which plunged 15% after shares were cut to Reduce from Neutral with a $1.50 price target that was reduced from $2.50.
- Also downgraded to Reduce were HERO -6.1%, NBR -3.2%, DO +1.3%.
- Lowered to Neutral were HAL +0.5%, GEOS -8.9%, HP -2.9%, BAS -2.5%, PKD -2.5%, BHI +0.6%, BBEP -0.2%, MEP +0.1%.
- Downgraded to Accumulate: PES -3.5%, PTEN -1.1%, NGLS +2.9%.
- The firm upgraded five stocks - ATW, NOV, OII, RES and SPN - all of which gained in today's trading.
Nov. 25, 2014, 2:46 PM
- "Not surprisingly, billionaires reduced their energy allocations (NYSEARCA:XLE) during Q3," says Direxion, unveiling the quarterly rebalance for the iBillionaire Index (which serves as the benchmark for the IBLN ETF). Attention was instead shifted to healthcare (NYSEARCA:XLV) and materials (NYSEARCA:XLB), with companies like Humana (NYSE:HUM) and Monsanto (NYSE:MON).
- Also added to the index: TMO, GM, FB, CBS, GOOG, MAS, APD, DAL, NOV, WHR, THC, ABBV.
- Dropped from the index: AIG, MCK, CTSH, MSI, RIG, CI, APC, GPS, MSFT, CMCSA, NFLX, MHFI, WMB, ICE.
- Outlying sectors: Consumer Discretionary (NYSEARCA:XLY) makes up 23.33% of the iBillionaire Index vs. 11.68% for the S&P 500, and Industrials (NYSEARCA:XLI) and financials (NYSEARCA:XLF) make up just 6.67% each of the index vs. 10.44 and 16.30 of the S&P 500, respectively. Consumer Staples (NYSEARCA:XLP) have zero representation in the index vs. 9.7% in the S&P 500.
- Previously: Direxion launched an ETF with iBillionaire today
Nov. 18, 2014, 6:48 PM
- Halliburton’s (NYSE:HAL) $34.6B buyout of Baker Hughes (NYSE:BHI) has caused HAL shares to plunge 12% since the deal was announced Monday, the worst two-day performance for an acquirer’s stock this year; on average, a company announcing a deal has seen its stock pop 3.1% on the news.
- But analysts say the deal may present game-changing opportunities for a few small and mid-cap oilfield services firms with enough cash on hand to buy a chunk of HAL's expected divestments without diluting their stock or damaging their credit rating.
- Tudor Pickering Holt's Jeff Tillery speculates that Forum Energy Technologies (NYSE:FET), National Oilwell Varco (NYSE:NOV) and GE would be interested in HAL's manufacturing businesses that may come up for bid, while Superior Energy Services (NYSE:SPN) and Frank's International (NYSE:FI) might want certain services-oriented businesses.
- Weatherford (NYSE:WFT) would seem like a logical buyer of some assets and could make it happen with a mix of cash and stock, but RBC's Kurt Hallead thinks HAL might not want to cooperate with a company that could essentially become what Baker Hughes was.
Nov. 17, 2014, 3:59 PM
- In the wake of Halliburton's (NYSE:HAL) $34.6B offer for Baker Hughes (NYSE:BHI), it appears the next hot sector for M&A action is energy: More consolidation is likely, given the weakness for stocks in the oilfield services subsector, low interest rates, and as a drop in demand for oil increases cutthroat pricing competition.
- Speculation is running rampant as investors try to figure out who is next in an industry that is sure to undergo some more consolidation; some names identified as possible candidates include Kodiak Oil and Gas (NYSE:KOG), Marathon Oil (NYSE:MRO), Northern Oil and Gas (NYSEMKT:NOG), Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE:APC), Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE:PXD).
- GE could go after National Oilwell Varco (NYSE:NOV) to show it is serious about the energy industry after last year’s purchase of pumpmaker Lufkin, Royal Bank of Canada says, and Oppenheimer says even BP could be an acquisition candidate.
- But Morgan Stanley does not see offshore drillers getting in on the action, as larger players like Diamond Offshore (NYSE:DO), Transocean (NYSE:RIG) and Seadrill (NYSE:SDRL) are still addressing dividend concerns while smaller companies such as Atwood Oceanics (NYSE:ATW) and Pacific Drilling (NYSE:PACD) still trade close to replacement value.
Nov. 14, 2014, 12:48 PM
- Oil services companies are mostly higher as Halliburton (HAL +1.7%) is indeed in talks to buy Baker Hughes (BHI +0.5%), a deal that would provide a jolt to oilfield services companies contending with falling oil prices: SLB +0.4%, OIS +1.2%, SPN +2.3%, CAM +0.2%, FTI -0.3%, NOV -0.6%.
- Sterne Agee analyst Stephen Gengaro calls a potential HAL-BHI combo a “HAL of a Frac-ing Deal," seeing several positives for HAL including strengthening its relatively weak position in artificial lift and production chemicals which are critical to enhancing HAL’s mature field strategy, enabling it to leverage its unparalleled U.S. pressure pumping logistics chain to enhance the efficiency of BHI’s operations, and providing the opportunity for significant cost savings which likely would total $600M-$750M or more.
- While antitrust concerns could force some divestitures, Gengaro does not believe it would prevent a deal from happening.
- Other potentially attractive M&A targets among oil services companies could include Dril-Quip (DRQ +0.7%), Frank’s International (FI +2.6%) and Oceaneering (OII -0.2%), Simmons & Co. says.
Nov. 13, 2014, 7:24 AM
Nov. 3, 2014, 12:24 PM
- National Oilwell Varco (NOV -1.5%) is lower after shares are downgraded at both Credit Suisse and Cowen.
- Credit Suisse cites a "double whammy" of onshore and offshore market slowdowns and a lack of near-term catalysts in cutting its rating to Neutral from Outperform and its price target to $77 from $93, adding that NOV is "making the transition from a growth stock to a total return stock in a market with some near-term headwinds."
- Cowen cuts the stock to Market Perform from Outperform with a $73 target, down from $81, against a backdrop of lower global E&P spending in 2015, flat spending in 2016, and minimal offshore rig awards over the next 2-3 years; however, it believes the downside is limited, in part due to NOV's $3B share buyback program.
Oct. 30, 2014, 10:59 AM
- National Oilwell Varco (NOV -2.3%) CEO Clay Williams says he would not be surprised to see the number of active drilling rigs fall modestly in 2015 in the wake of the recent drop in oil prices.
- Williams tells analysts in today's earnings conference call that lower prices historically have not impacted activity until three or four months have passed as oil and gas producers drill out their rig contracts.
- The CEO says NOV is cautiously optimistic about 2015 but bullish on 2016, believing that even if the market faces a downturn next year, the company’s $14.3B backlog of equipment orders and its diverse products should see it through tougher times.
- NOV reported better than expected Q3 earnings, as it saw higher demand for rig equipment and wellbore technologies amid a surge of fracking activity in west Texas and elsewhere.
National Oilwell Varco Inc is a provider in the design, manufacture and sale of equipment and components used in oil and gas drilling, completion and production operations, and the provision of oilfield services to the upstream oil and gas industry.
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