Nvidia: Weighing The Up And Down Sides
Esekla • 94 Comments
Esekla • 94 Comments
Nvidia: Best In Class Among Semiconductors In 2016
Alex Cho • 16 Comments
Alex Cho • 16 Comments
Thu, Dec. 1, 10:55 AM
- Notable early (2%+ losses): Alphabet (GOOGL -2.25%, GOOG, -2%) Facebook (FB -3.4%), Twitter (TWTR -3.9%), Oracle (ORCL -3.3%), Salesforce (CRM -4.2%), VMware (VMW -3.5%), Alibaba (BABA -2.7%)
- 5%+: Qualcomm (QCOM -4.9%), Nvidia (NVDA -7%), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD -7.1%), Micron Technology (MU -5.5%)
- 8%+: Cirrus Logic (CRUS -8.8%), Gigamon (GIMO -9.5%)
Thu, Dec. 1, 10:14 AM
- Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) had been trading relatively unmoved on the week (-0.58%) until realizing a sharp drop this morning, swept up in a broad sell-off across the technology sector and on volume of 3.23M over a 12.97M average.
- Shares nevertheless remain up 31%+ since the company reported big-time Q3 earnings, 41%+ on a 3-month term and 170%+ on the year.
Tue, Nov. 22, 10:51 AM
- Analyst Ian Ing moves from $87 to $106 (current price $92.77) on Nvidia (NVDA) and $8 to $10.50 (current price $8.74) on Advanced Micro Devices (AMD -1.9%). Retains Buy ratings on both.
- Regarding Nvidia, points out competition is rising as major suppliers pack into artificial intelligence, though nonetheless views Nvidia's GPUs favorably as incumbent usage among developers and user-friendly tools make the solutions difficult to challenge.
- On Advanced Micro Devices, forecasts within coming months Zen-based products to be disclosed by major OEM customers, third-party indications Zen is competing and clarity on data center workloads Zen could be advantaged in relative to Intel.
- Related (November 16): MKM Partners estimates artificial intelligence a $15B+ silicon opportunity by 2025
Fri, Nov. 18, 3:03 PM
- Following Intel's (INTC -0.4%) acquisition of Nervana Systems in August, the company discloses aim to provide "the industry’s most comprehensive portfolio for AI" through the forthcoming "Intel Nervana Platform." Further, silicon optimized for neural network usage, "Lake Crest," will begin testing in H1 2017 and ship to select customers within the year, and a new product, "Knights Crest," that integrates tightly with Xeon processors and Nervana technology, has been added to the product roadmap. Next generation Xeon and Xeon Phi processors, and other AI assets and initiatives are also highlighted in the outline.
- Intel's Diane Bryant, executive vice president and general manager of the Data Center Group: "We expect the Intel Nervana platform to produce breakthrough performance and dramatic reductions in the time to train complex neural networks. Before the end of the decade, Intel will deliver a 100-fold increase in performance that will turbocharge the pace of innovation in the emerging deep learning space."
- While Intel's position in the artificial intelligence space relative to high-flying Nvidia (NVDA +1.3%) is challenged by some, the former claims it holds 97% share of data center servers operating AI workloads (which is in turn claimed by Mizuho Securities to represent 0.1% of all current server dedication, though expected to grow) and has seemingly choice opportunity to benefit as the AI market rapidly expands.
- Yesterday: Google, Intel form enterprise cloud alliance
- The Intelligence Revolution – Intel’s AI Commitments to Deliver a Better World [Brian Krzanich]
Thu, Nov. 17, 12:18 PM
- In no surprise, the list is dominated by the ripping financial sector:
- Allstate (ALL +1.4%)
- Ameriprise (AMP +0.2%)
- TD Ameritrade (AMTD +1.6%)
- BB&T (BBT +2.1%)
- Citigroup (C +2.4%)
- Citizens Financial (CFG +2%)
- Comerica (CMA +1.5%)
- CNA Financial (CNA +0.6%)
- Loews Corp. (L +0.9%)
- Marsh & McLennan (MMC +1.9%)
- PNC Financial (PNC +2.6%)
- Royal Bank of Canada (RY +0.7%)
- U.S. Bancorp (USB +1.9%)
- Aetna (AET +1.5%)
- Best Buy (BBY +10.4%)
- CBS (CBS +0.6%)
- Celanese (CE +0.1%)
- Comcast (CMCSA +1.5%)
- Dell Technologies (DVMT +1.1%)
- The Gap (GPS +0.4%)
- Humana (HUM +1.4%)
- KLA-Tencor (KLAC +2.7%)
- Liberty Media (LMCA +1.6%)
- Lam Research (LRCX +1.9%)
- Micron (MU +5.3%)
- Nvidia (NVDA +2.7%)
- Rockwell (ROK -0.5%)
- Teck Resources (TCK +0.5%)
- Texas Instruments (TXN +1.1%)
- New lows:
- Novo Nordisk (NVO +0.3%)
Wed, Nov. 16, 3:25 PM
- 52-week highs on 1.5x or more normal volume:
- Allison Transmission (ALSN +3.1%)
- Autodesk (ADSK +3.5%)
- Best Buy (BBY +1.6%)
- CDW Corp. (CDW +2.7%)
- CommScope (COMM +0.7%)
- Greif (GEF +4%)
- Hubbell (HUBB -0.2%)
- MSC Industrial (MSM +0.4%)
- Nvidia (NVDA +6.3%)
- 52-week lows on 1.5x or more normal volume:
- Turkcell (TKC -1%)
Wed, Nov. 16, 2:35 PM
- In a note on the hypothesis, analyst Ian Ing spotlights advantage for Nvidia's (NVDA +6.2%) GPUs, Intel's (INTC -0.5%) and Xilinx's (XLNX -0.4%) field-programmable gate arrays, and Intel's co-processors and full-custom solutions. Regarding Advanced Micro Devices (AMD +9.4%), considers to be "too resource constrained to fully address the opportunity."
- Potential and acceleration in data center machine learning ($2B-$4B), autonomous driving ($9B+ per 10% unit share increment) and deep learning ($4B) [drones, robots, niche verticals etc.] represent base calculation of the $15B+ figure.
- With developments evolving quickly in the space, and other supply players involved (i.e. Qualcomm/NXP Semiconductors etc.), shifts in advantage and opportunity throughout the field, and these names, are of course nonetheless constantly in motion.
- Ing rates Nvidia and Intel at Buy with respective $87 (current price $91.44) and $44 (current price $34.73) targets. Xilinx is set at Neutral with a $35 target (current price $53.66) while Advanced Micro Devices is unrated in the issued commentary.
Tue, Nov. 15, 10:25 AM
- Through a framework designed to run on Nvidia Tesla GPUs (NVDA +4%) in Microsoft Azure (MSFT +2.1%) or on-premises.
- Nvidia founder and CEO Jen-Hsun Huang: "Every industry has awoken to the potential of AI. We've worked with Microsoft to create a lightning-fast AI platform that is available from on-premises with our DGX-1™ supercomputer to the Microsoft Azure cloud. With Microsoft's global reach, every company around the world can now tap the power of AI to transform their business."
- Executive vice president of Microsoft's Artificial Intelligence and Research Group Harry Shum: "We're working hard to empower every organization with AI, so that they can make smarter products and solve some of the world's most pressing problems. By working closely with NVIDIA and harnessing the power of GPU-accelerated systems, we've made Cognitive Toolkit and Microsoft Azure the fastest, most versatile AI platform. AI is now within reach of any business."
- Also today: NVIDIA Teams with National Cancer Institute, U.S. Department of Energy to Create AI Platform for Accelerating Cancer Research
- The Intelligent Industrial Revolution [Jen-Hsun Huang, October 24, 2016]
Mon, Nov. 14, 10:56 AM
- Despite opening the week 3% lower, Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) shares remain higher by 20%+ since reporting strong Q3 earnings and positive Q4 outlook last Thursday.
- On the report and subsequent run-up, analyst Rajvindra Gill moves from Hold to Buy and forecasts further upside as expanded markets become targeted and long-term secular trends involving automotive prospects, machine learning, artificial intelligence and graphics virtualization in the data center, and virtual reality devices within PC and gaming markets generative of higher graphics content play out.
- Models FY 2016 revenue at $6.837B, EPS at $2.93 (from $6.04B, $2.27 prior) and FY 2017 at $7.834B and $3.10 for revenue and EPS, respectively (from $6.34B, $2.20).
- Previously (November 11): Barclays, Pacific Crest Securities sidelined on Nvidia amid 26% run
- Previously (November 11): RBC Capital Markets, Jefferies raise Nvidia to $95 targets
Fri, Nov. 11, 3:01 PM
Fri, Nov. 11, 12:45 PM
Fri, Nov. 11, 12:32 PM
- Though upgrading Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) from Underweight on admittance Barclays had "been clearly on the wrong side of this one all year," analyst Blayne Curtis moves just one notch upward in terms of rating to Equal weight and sets a $72 target from $54 prior (current price $85.72). Notes: "The biggest area of outperformance vs. our expectations was in the data center where NVDA has tripled its business y/y. While we would argue that GPUs are not the best fit for Inference applications, it is clearly still early and NVDA is in command of the market." Further models Q4 revenue at $2.06B-$2.14B (vs. company-issued $2.10B and consensus $1.69B).
- Pacific Crest Securities, restating at Sector Weight, sees shares fairly valued at $80. Analyst Michael McConnell notes: "We remain on the sidelines with the shares given peaking GPU unit share versus AMD, modest operating-margin expansion in F2018 and the stock’s premium valuation." For Q4, forecasts revenue of $1.76B, gross margin of 58.1% (vs. company-issued 59.2%) and EPS of $0.80 (vs. consensus $0.57).
- Earlier: RBC Capital Markets, Jefferies raise Nvidia to $95 targets
- Yesterday: Nvidia +13%, strong Q3 reported
Fri, Nov. 11, 9:25 AM
Fri, Nov. 11, 9:07 AM
- Following the company's highly positive Q3 report.
- Mitch Steves at RBC Capital Markets, restating an Outperform and moving from a prior $80 target, cites continuing strength in datacenter segment performance (revenue $240M; +193% Y/Y, +54% Q/Q), opportunities in deep learning and robotics sectors along with a secular growth story driven by virtual reality, autonomous driving and infotainment, and deep learning and artificial intelligence.
- Jefferies' Mark Lipacis highlights Nvidia's core gaming business (revenue $1.24B, +63% Y/Y), though notes datacenter and auto (revenue $127M, +61% Y/Y) segments represent young growth areas he expects to contribute to further upside surprises going forward. Reiterates Buy rating, adjusts similarly from an $80 target, and forecasts $5 of EPS power in 3 years.
- Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) +17.37% to $79.54 pre-market.
- Q3 earnings call transcript
Thu, Nov. 10, 5:36 PM
Thu, Nov. 10, 5:16 PM