Nvidia: Weighing The Up And Down Sides
Esekla • 94 Comments
Esekla • 94 Comments
Nvidia: Best In Class Among Semiconductors In 2016
Alex Cho • 16 Comments
Alex Cho • 16 Comments
Fri, May 13, 12:45 PM
Fri, May 13, 10:21 AM
- Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) has rocketed 11.5% after last night's solid earnings beat and strong revenue guidance for Q2.
- Analysts have responded with price target increases and a couple of upgrades. Roth Capital upgraded to Buy from Neutral, and boosted its price target to $40, from $34.50 (the stock is trading at $39.66 as of now).
- The Datacenter segment grew 63% (and 47% Q/Q), "largely driven by deep learning adoption by cloud operators (IBM, Facebook, Microsoft, Amazon, Alibaba, Baidu, and Twitter), indicating to us that NVDA has found its next big growth vector,” analyst Brian Alger says of the "massive potential" there.
- Brean reiterated a Hold but raised its fair value range to $35-$40. “The Company continues to execute well and has growth drivers/levers in Tegra and GPUs and more importantly, is expecting a resumption of growth from its Gaming business driven by its Pascal-based GeForce products in Jul-16Q,” says analyst Mike Burton.
- Meanwhile, Jefferies Group raised its price target to $45 from $42; Wedbush raised its target to $42 from $38; RBC Capital increased its target to $40 from $36.
- Now read Nvidia Drops Another Pascal Bomb On AMD »
Fri, May 13, 9:17 AM
Thu, May 12, 5:37 PM
Thu, May 12, 4:41 PM
- Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) has gained 4.9% after hours following Q1's earnings beat featuring a view for Q2 above analyst consensus as well.
- Revenues grew by double digits with a $100M gain in Gaming, its biggest platform, and revenue grew in all platforms except one.
- For Q2, the company's forecasting $1.32B-$1.38B, significantly higher than consensus for $1.28B. It's expecting non-GAAP gross margin of 58%, non-GAAP opex of about $445M and capex of $30M-$40M.
- Revenue by platform: Gaming, $687M (up 17%); Professional Visualization, $189M (up 4%); Datacenter, $143M (up 63%); Automotive, $113M (up 47%); OEM and IP, $173M (down 21%). GPU business gained 15% and Tegra Processors grew 10%, to $160M (up 2% sequentially thanks to growth in Tegra Automotive).
- Conference call to come at 5 p.m. ET.
Thu, May 12, 4:22 PM
- Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA): Q1 EPS of $0.46 beats by $0.14.
- Revenue of $1.3B (+13.0% Y/Y) beats by $40M.
- Shares +5%.
Thu, May 12, 1:49 PM
- AMD presents a risk to Nvidia (NVDA -2.1%) as it's made "substantial progress" and may have taken graphic chip share, says Wells Fargo's David Wong.
- "We believe that market share gains in graphics chips have been a contributor to Nvidia’s top line performance and stock price value over the last two years" -- a period where Nvidia stock has nearly doubled.
- But AMD's last quarterly report showed double-digit sequential growth in desktop discrete graphics units and gains in professional graphics, and guided for 15% sequential growth in the out quarter, while Nvidia's guidance midpoint implies a 10% sequential decline.
- A seasonal decline isn't a negative for Nvidia, Wong says, but "we think that Nvidia’s expectations and AMD’s graphics growth momentum suggest that AMD is beginning to regain graphics revenue share" and that Nvidia earnings this afternoon and Mercury Research's upcoming chip market update should confirm that.
- Wong has an Outperform rating on AMD (AMD -2.2%) and a price target of $4.00-$4.50 -- implying 12-26% upside. He's rating Nvidia Market Perform.
- Now read Nvidia And The Need For Speed »
Wed, May 11, 5:35 PM
Sat, May 7, 9:24 PM
- A month after launching the first graphics card based on its new Pascal architecture - the Tesla P100, which goes into HPC server accelerator cards - Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) has launched the GeForce GTX 1080 and 1070, high-end Pascal desktop GPUs that will respectively power graphics cards from partners that sell for $599 and $379 (slightly more expensive "Founders Edition" cards will also be available). Both GPUs are promised to outperform Nvidia's Titan X, which has sold for $999 and is based on the older Maxwell architecture.
- The 1080 will be available on May 27, and the 1070 on June 10. As expected, the GPUs rely on TSMC's 16nm manufacturing process - Maxwell chips, which first became available in early 2014, rely on a 28nm process. The 1080 contains 7.2B transistors, and is promised to deliver 3x the power efficiency of the Titan X. The 1080 and 1070 rely on GDDR5X and GDDR5 memory supplied by Micron rather than High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), which accompanies AMD's most powerful GPUs.
- Nvidia also announced simultaneous multi-projection, a technology promised to improve the performance of both VR and multi-monitor gaming. Spatial audio and hand controller feedback technologies for VR headsets have also been unveiled, as well as a solution (called Ansel) that lets users capture game screenshots from different parts of a scene at resolutions as high as 4.5 gigapixels. Ansel also supports VR-friendly 360° panoramic screenshots.
- The announcements come ahead of the mid-2016 launch of cards based on AMD's next-gen Polaris GPU architecture. Polaris uses Samsung/Globalfoundries' 14nm process, supports HBM (and GDDR5), and (like Pascal) promises big improvements in performance-per-watt. However, Polaris doesn't appear to target high-end desktops; rather, it targets notebooks (including high-end systems) and mainstream desktops. Vega, an AMD architecture supporting HBM2 memory, is due in 2017.
- Nvidia is expected to launch a high-end PC GPU based on its GP100 Pascal core (used by the Tesla P100, supports HBM2) in late 2016 or early 2017.
Mon, May 2, 10:23 AM
- Following several lawsuits and countersuits filed with the ITC and U.S. federal courts, Nvidia (NVDA +1%) and Samsung (OTC:SSNLF) have settled all litigation between the companies, and also agreed to end USPTO challenges of the other's patents.
- The deal includes "a small number of patents by each company to the other, but no broad cross-licensing of patents or other compensation." Other terms are undisclosed.
- The agreement comes five months after an ITC administrative law judge (ALJ) ruled Nvidia infringed three Samsung patents, and (in a separate case) the ITC commission upheld an ALJ's ruling that Samsung didn't infringe two Nvidia patents and that a third patent was infringed but invalid.
- Nvidia's FQ1 report arrives on the afternoon of May 12.
Tue, Apr. 12, 2:09 AM
- According to research firm Gartner, global shipments of personal computers fell 9.6% to 64.8M units during Q1, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of declines and the first time since 2007 that shipments dropped below 65M units (IDC reported similar results worldwide).
- In the U.S., PC shipments totaled 13.1M units, representing a 6.6% decline from a year earlier and the lowest volume in three years.
- The sector has faced headwinds in recent quarters which include an economic slowdown in China, the strong U.S. dollar and the growing popularity of smartphones.
- Related stocks: OTC:ASIYF, AMD, HPQ, INTC, OTCPK:LNVGY, MSFT, MU, NVDA, SNE, STX, OTCPK:TOSYY, WDC
Tue, Apr. 5, 10:50 AM
- Mark Lipacis, Jefferies analyst, reiterated a Buy rating on NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) and increased his price target from $40 to $42, marking 17% upside from current levels.
- Investor Day: NVIDIA hosts its investor day today. Lipacis is optimistic going into the meeting, noting that management will focus on its Gaming, Data Center, and Self-Driving Cars segments. At the company’s Investor Day last year, management pledged to increase its revenues faster than its peers.
- The company succeeded in making Gaming GPU revenues comprise more than half of total 2015 sales. For 2016, the analyst believes Gaming GPU sales will top 60% of total 2016 sales.
- Gross Margin: Lipacis notes that NVDA’s gross margins have expanded 800 basis points in the last 5 years. He notes that this is a “secular” change and indicative of the company moving away from a chip supplier and towards a platform supplier. Lipacis believes gross margins will likely continue to expand this year.
- Secular Drivers: NVDA is focusing on four main secular drivers. These include: PC Gaming, Auto, Cloud, and VR. As a result, the company is moving away from the PC market and therefore no longer directly competing with Intel.
- According to TipRanks, Lipacis is a top-ranked analyst. He has a 75% success rate recommending stocks with a 14.2% average one-year return per rating.
- Now read Heads AMD Wins, Tails Nvidia Loses »
Wed, Mar. 16, 7:35 PM
- Bloomberg reports Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) is in talks with AMD to license its smaller rival's GPU patents.
- The report comes with Intel's cross-licensing deal with Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) due to expire in Q1 2017. Nvidia has been recording $66M/quarter in licensing revenue related to the Intel deal, which allows Intel to use Nvidia's IP in the GPUs integrated with its CPUs.
- AMD is up 6.1% after hours to $2.79. Nvidia is down 0.7% to $32.87.
Tue, Mar. 15, 2:12 PM
- AMD (AMD -8.6%) has followed up on yesterday morning's VR announcements by revealing (at a Game Developers Conference event) the Radeon Pro Duo, a high-end dual-GPU solution declared by the company to be "the world's most powerful platform for virtual reality."
- The Duo, previously expected to be called the Fury X2 - the first Fury GPUs launched last June - is expected to sport a $1,499 MSRP, and is aimed at both hardcore gamers and professionals (including VR content creators). Each of its GPUs sport 4096 stream processors and are paired with 4GB of High Bandwidth Memory delivering 512GB/s of memory bandwidth. Total performance is pegged at 16 TFLOPs.
- AMD also provided details about its Polaris 10 and 11 GPUs, which are due in mid-2016 and will rely on Samsung/Globalfoundries' 14nm FinFET manufacturing process - Polaris was first revealed at CES. The company reiterates its claim Polaris will deliver massive improvements in performance/watt.
- WCCFTech estimates a Polaris video card shown off in a demo consumes only 50W of power, making it twice as power-efficient as a card using Nvidia's (NVDA -1.3%) GTX 950 GPU (based on the 28nm Maxwell architecture). Nvidia plans to counter Polaris with GPUs based on its 16nm Pascal architecture; the company promises a 2x performance/watt increase over Maxwell, and support for up to 12TFLOPs of performance, 32GB of HBM and 1 TB/s of memory bandwdith.
- In 2017, AMD plans to launch GPUs based on Vega, an architecture supporting HBM2 memory (supports higher densities and more memory bandwidth). Vega will be followed in 2018 by Navi, an architecture said to support an unnamed next-gen memory type.
- AMD has fully given back yesterday's gains. The Nasdaq is down 0.5%.
Mon, Mar. 14, 2:42 PM
- AMD (AMD +8.1%) has unveiled XConnect, a solution that allows externally-housed graphics cards running on AMD GPUs to be paired with notebooks via Thunderbolt 3 connections (supports 40Gbps of bandwidth and 100W of power delivery via USB Type-C ports).
- Separately, AMD has announced it currently powers 83% of all dedicated VR headsets (per Jon Peddie Research). With Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) also interested in the VR space and the first commercial Oculus Rift model only due to ship later this month, AMD's share might look very different a year from now.
- AMD also notes it's partnering with Canada's Sulon Technologies to develop the Sulon Q, a high-performance VR headset that doesn't need to be attached to a PC. The steep performance demands of the Rift and other PC-connected VR headsets are expected to boost AMD and Nvidia's high-end GPU sales.
- Shares have rallied on a quiet day for stocks. Volume (26M shares) is soundly above a 3-month daily average of 14.1M.
Fri, Mar. 4, 7:29 PM
- WCCFTech reports Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) plans to demo a graphics card featuring a GPU based on its next-gen Pascal architecture at the industry's GTC conference. GTC runs from April 4-7, with Nvidia CEO Jen-Hsun Huang due to make a keynote on April 5.
- The site also passes on a report from Swedish site Sweclockers stating Nvidia plans for the first Pascal-based products - gaming notebook graphics cards - to ship on June 16. The products would be announced at Taiwan's Computex trade show (runs from May 31-June 4). Pascal has been expected to launch this year, but no specific dates have been given.
- Pascal GPUs will be built on TSMC's 16nm FinFET manufacturing process - current-gen Maxwell GPUs are built using a 28nm process. Nvidia promises a 2x performance/watt increase over Maxwell, along with support for up to 12 TFLOPs of performance, 32GB of High Bandwidth Memory, and 1TB/s of memory bandwidth. Nvidia's NVLink high-speed interconnect will also be supported.
- Nvidia is counting on Pascal to keep AMD, which is due to launch GPUs based on its next-gen Polaris architecture in mid-2016, at bay. The company is also looking to sustain its recent momentum in the gaming GPU market: A 21% Y/Y increase in gaming GPU sales helped Nvidia's total GPU revenue rise 10% in FQ4 in spite of a weak PC market.