NVR Inc. Trades At A Discount To Other Builders - Should It?
Alpha Gen Capital
Alpha Gen Capital
Thu, Nov. 17, 11:43 AM
- This morning's housing starts for October was off the charts - rising 25.5% from September to the fastest pace in nine years. Stripping out the notoriously volatile multifamily starts still leaves single family starts up 10.2% from September.
- Of course, interest rates continue to rise - with the 10-year Treasury yield up another three basis points to 2.26% - but the builders can worry about that another time.
- The S&P 500 is ahead 0.35%, with the homebuilders are outperforming by a mile.
- Toll Brothers (TOL +2.9%), LGI Homes (LGIH +6.2%), Taylor Morrison (TMHC +3.5%), KB Home (KBH +2.4%), Lennar (LEN +2.5%), Hovnanian (HOV +1.4%), Pulte (PHM +2.7%), D.R. Horton (DHI +3.2%), NVR (NVR +1.8%)
Thu, Oct. 20, 9:05 AM
Thu, Jul. 21, 9:05 AM
Wed, Jul. 20, 5:30 PM| Wed, Jul. 20, 5:30 PM | 13 Comments
Sat, May 21, 12:49 PM
- Laslzo Birinyi still sees underlying strength in the stock market, despite the myriad of economic, technical, and political fears holding back investor enthusiasm.
- In particular, the well-known investor has his eyes on AutoZone (NYSE:AZO) and builder NVR (NYSE:NVR) as "special situations" stocks.
- Kraft Heinz (NASDAQ:KHC) also makes the list due to its lack of volatility amid a volatile market which could indicate upside down the road. On that point, a quick screen of other consumer goods stocks like Kraft that have weathered the uneven read on U.S. consumer spending and global demand over the last month may tip off some other value picks.
- Here's ten consumer good stocks with a low recent volatility measurement, below average forward P/E ratio, and +2% dividend yield: DEO, UN, UL, CAJ, RMCF, KO, PEP, BUD, PM, PG, TM.
- Related ETFs: IYK, UGE, SZK.
Thu, Apr. 21, 9:17 AM
- NVR (NYSE:NVR): Q1 EPS of $15.79 beats by $0.83.
- Revenue of $1.14B (+19.0% Y/Y) in-line.
Wed, Apr. 20, 5:30 PM
- ADS, ALK, AZZ, BANC, BBT, BHE, BIIB, BK, BX, CFG, CLS, COL, DAN, DGX, DHI, DHR, DOV, DST, ERIC, FAF, FCS, FITB, GM, GMT, HOMB, IMAX, JAKK, JCI, KCG, KEY, LAD, LAZ, LUV, MAN, MDSO, MDWD, NUE, NVR, NVS, PBCT, PHM, PII, POOL, PPG, PVTB, RS, SHW, SILC, SNA, SON, STC, SWK, SYNT, TCB, TRV, UA, UNP, USG, UTEK, VZ
Tue, Jan. 26, 9:21 AM
- NVR (NYSE:NVR): Q4 EPS of $31.92 beats by $2.58.
- Revenue of $1.56B (+18.2% Y/Y) beats by $40M.
- Shares +1.3% PM.
Mon, Jan. 25, 5:30 PM
Dec. 15, 2015, 9:47 AM
- KB Home (KBH +1.8%) is having a tough year - lower by 24% - but Credit Suisse sees worse things ahead, downgrading to Underperform and cutting the price target to $12 from $17. Also downgraded to Underperform is NVR (NVR -0.7%), but that stock has been a sector leader this year, up 35%.
- Catching an upgrade after a tough run is Meritage Homes (MTH +2.9%), Down just 3% YTD, MTH is lower by 18% over the last three months. The team upgrades to Neutral with $35 price target.
Oct. 20, 2015, 9:12 AM
- NVR (NYSE:NVR): Q3 EPS of $27.11 beats by $0.47.
- Revenue of $1.4B (+15.7% Y/Y) misses by $20M.
Oct. 19, 2015, 5:30 PM
Jul. 29, 2015, 10:38 AM
- Sales orders gained a fast 22% year-over-year in the quarter ended June 30, writes Kris Hudson, lower than some analysts had hoped, but still a strong number. Sequentially though, orders for D.R. Horton, PulteGroup (NYSE:PHM), M/I Homes (NYSE:MHO), and NVR all slowed, according to Housing ResearchCenter, though normal seasonality would call for an increase. Higher interest rates are likely to blame.
- D.R. Horton's average sales price of $289K rose 2.9% Y/Y, keeping in place a pattern of low-single digit gains over the past year. It's not necessarily that builders are lowering prices, but the mix has changed, with D.R. Horton in particular building larger numbers of less-expensive homes. The company's Express brand of entry-level homes - started in 2013 - accounted for 19% of orders in the last quarter. Still the percentage of first-time homebuyers of 41% was flat Y/Y, and down from 44% two years ago.
- Credit remains tough to come by, with the average FICO score of D.R. Horton-originated mortgages of 716 last quarter vs. 719 a year ago and 723 two years ago.
- ETFs: ITB, XHB
- Previously: D.R. Horton profit nearly doubles (July 28)
Jul. 21, 2015, 9:39 AM
- Q2 net income of $93.4M or $21.91 per share vs. $68.2M and $15.17 one year ago.
- New orders of 3,796 units up 11% Y/Y. ASP of new orders of $378K up 3%.
- Cancellation rate of 14% up 100 bps from last year.
- Settlements of 3,175 units up 8% Y/Y. Backlogs of 7,488 units up 15%; up 17% in dollars to $2.854B.
- Gross profit margin of 19.2% up 60 bps from one year ago.
- Mortgage closed loan production of $859M up 27% Y/Y. Operating income for mortgage banking of $11.4M vs. $6.2M.
- Previously: NVR beats by $2.82, misses on revenue (July 21)
- NVR +1.4%
Jul. 21, 2015, 9:03 AM
- NVR (NYSE:NVR): Q2 EPS of $21.91 beats by $2.82.
- Revenue of $1.24B (+12.7% Y/Y) misses by $60M.
Jul. 20, 2015, 5:30 PM