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Dec. 17, 2015, 2:11 PM
- Oracle (ORCL -5.1%) has dropped to within $2 of a 52-week low of $35.14 after issuing somewhat soft FQ3/FQ4 guidance to go with mixed FQ2 results. A handful of firms have cut targets, but no downgrades have arrived.
- Like other analysts, Wedbush's Steve Koenig (Neutral, $40 target) observes Oracle's FQ2 EPS beat stemmed from a lower-than-expected tax rate of 20.4%. He calls the headline results "fairly solid," but adds net billings fell 8% Y/Y (in spite of SaaS/PaaS strength) and remains worried about the impact of a mix shift towards cloud revenue on margins.
- Morgan Stanley's Keith Weiss (Equal-Weight, $45 target) is still optimistic Oracle will generate more revenue from cloud software deals - he roughly estimates 70% more over a 10-year span - than on-premise deals, but (echoing past concerns) still has concerns about their bottom-line impact. Weiss also questions the ability of Oracle's IaaS (cloud infrastructure) business to compete with much larger rivals such as Amazon and Microsoft.
- Credit Suisse's Philip Winslow (Outperform, $50 target) is still a believer. He notes Oracle sees SaaS/PaaS gross margin rising to 60% from FQ2's 43% as more billings convert to revenue, and sees cloud growth, sales productivity improvements, in-memory database adoption, and engineered systems demand acting as potential catalysts.
- Oracle currently trades for 14x a pre-earnings FY16 (ends May '16) EPS consensus of $2.60.
- Prior Oracle coverage
Dec. 16, 2015, 4:31 PM
Oct. 28, 2015, 4:25 PM
- Equinix (NASDAQ:EQIX) is off 2% in choppy trading after hours in the wake of posting Q3 results where revenues and FFO grew solidly though EPS fell short of consensus.
- Adjusted FFO was up to $210.4M, but net income came to $0.71/share vs. an expected $1.11. Revenues were up 10.7% Y/Y and up 3% sequentially. Recurring revenues (co-location, interconnection, managed services) were up 10% Y/Y to $646.7M.
- Gross margins were 53% compared to a year-ago 51%.
- The company also announced a deal with Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) to bring Oracle's Cloud services to six global markets via the Equinix Cloud Exchange: Amsterdam, Chicago, London, Singapore, Sydney and Washington, D.C. Cloud is the fastest-growing part of Oracle's business, supporting 62M users and 23B transactions a day.
- Equinix is guiding to Q4 revenues of $701M-$705M vs. consensus of $701M. It expects Q4 EBITDA of $328M-$332M vs. an expected $327M. It sees full-year 2015 revenues of $2.696B-$2.7B, above consensus of $2.693B, and EBITDA of $1.267B-$1.271B, above an expected $1.26B.
- Conference call to come at 5:30 p.m. ET.
Sep. 16, 2015, 5:36 PM
Sep. 16, 2015, 5:29 PM
- On a constant currency basis, Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) expects FQ2 revenue to be down 2% to up 1% Y/Y, and EPS to be in a range of $0.63-$0.66 - forex is expected to have a 6% impact on revenue growth, and a $0.05 impact on EPS. Consensus in actual dollars is for -0.6% revenue growth and EPS of $0.65.
- Total software and cloud revenue is expected to be flat to up 2% in constant currency. SaaS/Pass revenue is expected to grow 36%-40%, and IaaS revenue 5%-9%.
- For the whole of FY16 (ends May '16), Oracle expects 3%-4% CC software/cloud revenue growth, 50% SaaS/PaaS growth, and 0%-1% on-premise software (licenses + update/support revenue) growth.
- Strong bookings are expected to lead SaaS/PaaS revenue growth to accelerate as FY16 progresses - bookings were up 165% in FQ1 in CC, leading dollar-based billings to rise 70% (well above 34% revenue growth).
- ORCL -2.4% after hours to $37.35.
- FQ1 results, details
Jun. 18, 2015, 5:33 PM
- Dave Donatelli, the head of HP's enterprise hardware ops until being reassigned in 2013, has been named Oracle's (NYSE:ORCL) EVP of Converged Infrastructure. That puts him in charge of engineered systems, server, storage/tape, and networking hardware.
- Oracle's hardware systems revenue fell 4% Y/Y in FQ4 to $1.4B, with a strong dollar and ongoing SPARC server declines offsetting engineered systems growth. Engineered bookings were up double-digits.
- Meanwhile, the enterprise software giant received a handful of target cuts following its FQ4 miss and soft FQ1 guidance, but no downgrades. Bulls focused on healthy cloud growth, and bears on declining license revenue and the margin pressures caused by the cloud shift. Shares closed down 4.8%.
- Goldman's Heather Bellini (Buy): “We expect ORCL’s license results to continue to be pressured on a yoy basis,” writes Bellini. “However our field checks also confirm that the company’s competitiveness in the cloud has improved considerably over the last 12-18 months.” Her FY16 (ends May '16) EPS estimates has been cut by $0.24 to $2.66.
- FBR's Daniel Ives (Outperform): "While management blamed the weakness on currency, it is clear to us that the company continues to struggle with its cloud transition, secular headwinds, and lingering execution issues in the field ... While it would be easy for us to throw in the white towel ... we see some positive signs of cloud growth and ultimately believe that the 12c [database] product cycle could be a growth catalyst in FY16 as more customers adopt the cloud-centric platform."
- Citi's Walter Pritchard (Neutral): "[W]e do not have a great framework for cloud transition at Oracle and Q4 results raise concerns about profitability levels in SaaS/PaaS as it substitutes for license ... SaaS / PaaS gross margin deteriorated further and on 28% higher SaaS/PaaS revenue in 4Q15, ORCL gross profit was 14% lower."
- Prior Oracle coverage
Jun. 18, 2015, 9:22 AM
Jun. 17, 2015, 5:41 PM
- Continuing its recent custom, Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) has provided all of its FQ1 guidance (delivered on the FQ4 call) in constant currency, which backs out the impact of the dollar's rise.
- On a CC basis, the company forecasts 5%-8% FQ1 revenue growth and EPS of $0.56-$0.59; consensus in actual dollars is for 0.2% revenue growth and EPS of $0.61. Total software/cloud revenue is expected to grow 6%-8% in CC, and SaaS/PaaS revenue 39%-43%. For reference, forex had an 8% impact on FQ4 revenue growth, and a $0.09 impact on EPS.
- Trying to put a good face on Oracle's FQ4 performance, co-CEO Safra Catz highlighted the company's strong cloud software/services growth, and noted the shift to cloud subscriptions from licenses leads revenue recognition to be pushed out. SaaS/PaaS bookings rose over 200% Y/Y to $426M (said to top an internal target of $300M), and total cloud billings rose 78% to $834M. Traditional app and database license revenue (-17%) was at $3.1B during the quarter.
- Oracle is at $42.15 AH.
- FQ4 results, details, PR
- Previously: Oracle seen pricing aggressively against Workday
Jun. 17, 2015, 4:31 PM
- Oracle's (NYSE:ORCL) closely-watched software/cloud revenue rose 2% Y/Y in constant currency in FQ4 to $8.4B, towards the low end of a 1%-6% guidance range. In actual dollars, sales fell 6%.
- Segment performance: Hardware systems revenue rose 5% Y/Y in CC (guidance was -2% to +8%), and fell 4% in dollars to $1.4B. Within software/cloud, SaaS/PaaS (cloud app/app platform) revenue rose 29% in dollars to $416M, and IaaS (cloud infrastructure) revenue rose 25% to $160M. However, traditional software license revenue (hurt by the cloud shift) fell 17% to $3.1B (10% in CC). License update/product support revenue (driven by past deals) was flat at $4.7B, and other services fell 4% to $899M.
- Financials: Roughly $2B was spent on buybacks, even with FQ3. GAAP costs/expenses rose 5% Y/Y to $6.72B - sales/marketing -1% to $2.21B, R&D +6% to $1.44B, G&A +5% to $278M. Oracle ended FQ4 with $54.4B in cash/marketable securities (much of it offshore), and $42B in debt.
- Shares have fallen to $41.84 AH. Conference call at 5PM ET (webcast), guidance should be provided.
- FQ4 results, PR
May 29, 2015, 6:29 PM
- After tumbling on Wednesday in the wake of its FQ1 beat and in-line guidance, Workday (NYSE:WDAY) has continued trending lower. Shares fell 1.5% in regular trading today, hitting their lowest levels since Feb. 2.
- Though no downgrades have arrived, several sell-side firms have suggested tougher competition is hurting growth, with Oracle's (NYSE:ORCL) cloud HR/HCM software the biggest culprit. Jefferies' John DiFucci: "We believe Oracle (and to a lesser degree, SAP) has been behaving irrationally in the market for almost a year ... while it was likely aggressive prior to this, we believe it became even more aggressive doing almost anything to win deals from Workday."
- DiFucci sees a method to Oracle's madness. "This irrational behavior may not be so irrational since a loss to Workday is not only a loss of an HCM opportunity, but also a loss of Oracle infrastructure given Workday’s proprietary infrastructure architecture." However, he admits Oracle/SAP's HCM offerings (though improving) "still trail Workday by a meaningful margin."
- Likewise, Brean's Sarah Hindlian asserts HCM is "becoming incrementally more competitive, with material new pricing pressure from incumbents, while SaaS penetration of the market is maturing." She also thinks Workday's cloud financials software growth is slower than investors were expecting.
- Cowen's Jesse Hulsing is more positive, even if FQ1 billings were lighter than he forecast. "We are ... encouraged by the trend toward larger, blue chip HCM custs (Coca Cola, etc.) and a more bullish tone regarding the financials pipeline. PT to $101 and view the low $80s as attractive entry point, as we expect growth to improve moving forward."
- During Oracle's March FQ3 CC (transcript), Mark Hurd didn't pass up the chance to trash-talk Workday. "In the context of HCM, I think ... we have simply engineered now a better product than Workday ... we now win more than half the deals in the United States. Outside the United States, our win rate goes up actually exponentially because of the breadth of our distribution in those markets." Workday might beg to differ with those claims.
Apr. 29, 2015, 2:50 PM
- Bloomberg reports Salesforce (CRM) has been approached by a potential acquirer, and is working with bankers to field offers. Shares have soared in response.
- With a current $51B market cap, only a handful of enterprise tech companies could afford to digest Salesforce. The short list includes Oracle ($197B market cap), Microsoft ($400B), IBM ($173B), and just maybe SAP ($94B). Oracle (NYSE:ORCL), which has made plenty of cloud software acquisitions, just launched a $10B debt offering.
- Update: BuzzFeed reports Oracle wasn't the company that approached Salesforce.
Dec. 18, 2014, 2:04 PM
- With the help of stronger-than-expected hardware sales, Oracle (ORCL +9.2%) beat FQ2 estimates in spite of a 400 bps forex headwind (twice what was originally expected). FQ3 guidance was conservative after taking forex pressures into account.
- The numbers have been good enough for Oracle to surge to new highs and receive a slew of target hikes, and to lead many enterprise tech names to outperform amid a big market rally. The Nasdaq is up 1.9%.
- Microsoft (MSFT +3.2%), Cisco (CSCO +2.3%), EMC (EMC +3.7%), VMware (VMW +5.1%), and beaten-down IBM (IBM +2.8%) are among the enterprise tech names outperforming today. Others: SPLK +4.6%. CA +3.5%. RHT +3.4%. VRNS +6.3%. PCTY +5.8%. JIVE +4.6%. VMEM +5.2%. SAAS +4.7%. BRCD +3.8%.
- Oracle's healthy cloud software numbers are drawing attention: While traditional software license revenue fell 4% Y/Y, its SaaS/PaaS revenue rose 41%. SaaS/PaaS bookings totaled $170M, and are expected to be "well over" $1B in FY16 (ends May '16). Fusion cloud app bookings rose over 100%.
- On the CC (transcript), Oracle performed its customary trash-talking of cloud app rivals. "We are clearly growing faster than Salesforce (CRM +4%) and were more than three times the size of Workday (WDAY +3.2%)." Both firms are posting solid gains.
- Oracle's numbers come as Bloomberg reports the Chinese government is looking to "purge most foreign technology from banks, the military, state-owned enterprises and key government agencies by 2020." IBM, Cisco, and other U.S. firms have already seen their Chinese sales fall sharply following last year's NSA spying uproar.
Dec. 17, 2014, 5:40 PM
Dec. 17, 2014, 5:26 PM
- Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) has declined to provide guidance in absolute dollars on its FQ2 CC. In constant currency, the company expects FQ3 revenue to be up 4%-8% Y/Y, and EPS to be in a range of $0.69-$0.74. Consensus (based on absolute dollars, naturally) is for 4% revenue growth and EPS of $0.73.
- If exchange rates remain where they are, forex is expected to have 4%+ impact on absolute dollar revenue growth, and a $0.04 impact on EPS.
- In constant currency, software/cloud revenue is expected to be up 5%-8% Y/Y (~1%-4% in absolute dollars, at current exchange rates). Within cloud, SaaS/PaaS and IaaS revenue is respectively forecast to grow 30%-34% and 29%-33%; total cloud revenue was up 45% in FQ2. Hardware system growth guidance is set at -2% to +8%.
- ORCL +5.5% AH. Morgan Stanley's pre-earnings upgrade is looking good.
- FQ2 results, PR
Dec. 17, 2014, 4:18 PM
- Oracle's (NYSE:ORCL) total software/cloud revenue rose 5% Y/Y in FQ2 to $7.3B, in-line with guidance for 3%-6% growth. However, hardware system revenue grew 1% to $1.3B, beating guidance for flat to -10% growth.
- SaaS, (cloud app), PaaS (cloud app platform), and IaaS (cloud infrastructure) revenue collectively rose 45% to $516M; guidance was for 39%-44% SaaS/PaaS growth and 39%-43% IaaS growth.
- On the other hand, traditional software license revenue remains pressured by the cloud migration, it fell 4% to $2.05B. Services revenue fell 3% to $935M. License update/product support revenue (50% of revenue, driven by past deals) rose 6% to $4.8B.
- GAAP opex +3% Y/Y to $6.06B, even with revenue growth. Sales/marketing spend only rose 1% to $19B; R&D rose 9% to $1.39B.
- Americas revenue +5% Y/Y to $5.2B; EMEA +3% to $2.9B; Asia-Pac roughly flat at $1.5B (an improvement from recent quarters).
- $2.1B was spent on buybacks, up slightly from FQ1's $2B. Forex had a 400 bps impact on revenue.
- ORCL +2.7% AH. CC at 5PM ET, guidance should be provided.
- FQ2 results, PR.
Dec. 17, 2014, 4:02 PM
- Oracle (NYSE:ORCL): FQ2 EPS of $0.69 beats by $0.01.
- Revenue of $9.6B (+3.4% Y/Y) beats by $80M.
- Shares +3% AH.
Oracle Corporation develops, manufactures, markets, hosts and supports database and middleware software, application software, cloud infrastructure, hardware system including computer server, storage and networking products and related services.
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