Nov. 23, 2015, 12:30 PM
- "Hazard ahead: The emerging market credit cycle has turned down," is the title of a recent JPMorgan report, arguing credit markets will tighten as the Fed boosts rates.
- A shoe not yet dropped, says the team, is that debt to GDP ratios are not decreasing.
- "Remember that a lot of the credit growth in emerging markets is no more than the flip side of easy money in developed markets," and as the Fed normalizes, this can reverse, though Europe and Japan keeping their feet on the gas pedal should mitigate the turn.
- The ratio of broad emerging market nonfinancial private credit to GDP hit 128% of GDP in Q1, up 51 percentage points from 2007. Exclude China, and the numbers are not nearly as gaudy, but still frothy, and the moves resemble those from that of developed markets in the years leading up to the global financial crisis.
- ETFs: EMB, PCY, TEI, EDF, ELD, EDD, EMLC, GHI, VWOB, EMD, EMCB, EDI, MSD, EMCD, EMHY, HYEM, SBW, LEMB, EMAG, CEMB, EBND, PFEM, EMSH, FEMB
Oct. 2, 2015, 4:32 AM
- Emerging markets are on track to suffer their first annual net outflow since 1988, the Institute of International Finance predicts.
- Foreign inflows are set to halve to $548B this year and outflows are expected to come in at $540B. With local outflows accelerating, net flows will turn negative.
- The flight from emerging markets "has been driven primarily by internal factors, basically reflecting a sustained slowdown in EM growth and amplified by rising uncertainty about China’s economy and policies," the IIF says.
- EMs have also been hit by the commodities rout, to which many are exposed. Weak currencies and political turmoil in countries such as Brazil and Turkey are increasing the risks.
- While those risks remain high, there is little incentive for investors to return to EMs.
- ETFs: EWZ, BRF, BRZU, BZF, EWZS, BRXX, BRAQ, BZQ, BRAZ, BRAF, UBR, DBBR, FBZ, TUR, EMB, PCY, TEI, EDF, ELD, ECON, EDD, EMLC, TKF, GHI, VWOB, CEW, EMD, EDI, MSD, EMHY, HYEM, EMIF, SBW, PXR, FEO, EMQQ, LEMB, EMAG, EMCG, EBND, AYT, PGD, PFEM, JEM, EMEY, EMSH, EMDI, BCHP, FEMB
May 6, 2015, 4:36 AM
- A worldwide selloff in government bonds deepened today, buoyed by rising German Bund yields that recently hit record highs and narrowed their gap with U.S. Treasuries.
- Benchmark 10-year Bunds now trade at 0.53%, having hit a record low of 0.05% last month, when many expected them to turn negative.
- The vicious bond market meltdown is also raising pressing questions for investors - is this a correction or merely a trend change?
- ETFs: EMB, PCY, EU, BNDX, ELD, JGBS, EMLC, JGBD, DSUM, WIP, BWX, VWOB, AUNZ, ALD, IGOV, ILB, BUNL, LEMB, JGBL, EMAG, ITLY, ITIP, ISHG, BWZ, ITLT, EBND, CBON, BUNT, GGOV, JGBT, GTIP, PFEM, JGBB, EMSH, CHNB, FEMB
Apr. 6, 2015, 5:29 AM
- Facing decade-high inflation, a fiscal crisis and water rationing, more than a million Brazilians took to the streets last month to protest government corruption and mismanagement. In China, growth is slowing as property prices fall, propelling more than 1,000 iron ore mines toward financial collapse. In Russia, citizens are deserting their nation’s banks, switching savings into U.S. dollars. Such snapshots of growing distress in the world’s largest emerging markets are echoed among many of their smaller counterparts.
- In aggregate, the 15 largest emerging economies experienced their biggest capital outflow since the crisis in the second half of last year.
- These trends, analysts say, signal a “great unravelling” of an emerging markets debt binge that has swollen to unprecedented dimensions. The pain inflicted by this capital flight is being felt in the real-life economies of vulnerable countries and in a surging number of emerging market corporations that are forecast to default on their debts.
- Source: FT
- ETFs: EMB, PCY, ELD, ECON, EMLC, CEW, VWOB, EMIF, PXR, LEMB, EMCG, EMAG, EBND, AYT, PGD, EMRE, PFEM, JEM, EMSH, FEMB
Jul. 1, 2014, 3:45 AM
- Emerging market bond sales have soared past analyst estimates for the first half of 2014, as investors flock to higher yields. $268B of bonds sold so far this year, compared to the $240B sold in the same period of 2013.
- Due to a dovish Fed, U.S. yields have fallen this year to 2.5% from end-2013 levels of 3%. As a result, increased demand for higher yield has investors trading emerging market bonds despite geo-political risks.
- ETFs: EMB, PCY, ELD, EMLC, EMCB, VWOB, EMCD, HYEM, EMHY, LEMB, EMAG, CEMB, EBND, PFEM, EMSH, SEMF, IEMF, LEMF
Jan. 7, 2014, 12:12 PM
- The EGShares TCW EM Short Term Investment Grade Bond ETF (SEMF), Intermediate Term Investment Grade Bond ETF (IEMF), and Long Term Investment Grade Bond ETF (LEMF) will begin trading on January 8th; offering exposure to both sovereign and corporate bonds.
- Each new fund will charge 0.65%, which is above the average expense ratio for this sector, but few funds currently offer specific duration exposure to emerging market bonds.
- Other emerging market bond ETFs: EMB, PCY, ELD, EMLC, EMCB, VWOB, ILB, EMCD, LEMB, ITIP, EBND, EMAG, GTIP, PFEM, EMSH
Nov. 21, 2013, 9:12 AM
- Emerging market bond ETF investors worried about duration risk will have their first short-duration fund to choose from starting today with the launch of ProShares' Short-Term USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF (EMSH). The fund has an expense ratio of 0.5%.
- The underlying index only selects paper with a fixed rate and maturity of 0-5 years, with a weighted average yield-to-maturity of three years or less. Sovereign, and corporate - both investment and speculative grade - will be included.
- As comparison, the iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF (EMB) has a 7-year effective duration.
- Corporate EM bond ETFs: EMCB, EMCD, HYEM, EMHY
- Government EM bond ETFs: EMB, PCY, ELD, EMLC, ILB, LEMB, ITIP, EBND, GTIP, PFEM
Nov. 13, 2013, 11:33 AM
- Market Vectors files paperwork for the Emerging Markets Aggregate Bond ETF EMAG, with an after-fee-waiver annual expense ratio of 0.49%.
- The fund will hold both sovereign and corporate, and both investment grade and high-yield paper from a large number of emerging market countries. At the end of Q3, the tracked index held about 1,800 bonds from a total of 694 issuers.
- Market Vectors' Emerging Markets Local Currency Bond ETF (EMLC) has just over $1B in AUM.
- Related ETFs: EMB, PCY, ELD, EMLC, ILB, LEMB, ITIP, EBND, GTIP, PFEM, EMCB, EMCD, HYEM, EMHY
Sep. 28, 2013, 1:30 PM
- "Sovereign emerging-market yields today are consistent with their averages between 2003 and 2007, but U.S. Treasury rates are only about half as high," writes Shuli Ren, in a bullish piece on emerging-market debt.
- The premise is simple: 17 consecutive weeks of EM bond fund outflows has "flooded out irrational exuberance that had piled up over the winter and spring" and brought the market back down to earth, even as institutional demand has remained strong, suggesting retail investors have overreacted to taper talk.
- With the Fed still striking a highly accommodative tone, emerging-market debt could rally as investors discover the relatively attractive valuations.
- ETFs - EMB, LEMB, PCY, EMLC, ELD, PFEM, EBND, VWOB; Asia: ALD; Latin America: BONO
Aug. 15, 2013, 11:12 AM
- Anything paying income is again being particularly hard hit by the rise in Treasury yields (the 10-year now at a 2-year high of 2.8%).
- Selections in mREITs (REM -2.1%), (MORT -1.9%) include RAIT Financial Trust (RAS -4.1%) - whose IRT had an ill-timed IPO yesterday and Ellington Residential (EARN -4.8%) - the market not caring about reasonable Q2 performance, a hefty discount to book, and the launch of a repurchase program. Other mREITs: CYS Investments (CYS -3.6%), Apollo (AMTG -3%), Newcastle (NCT -5%), Invesco (IVR -2.7%), Arlington Asset (AI -1.2%). A leveraged ETF play: MORL.
- Hanging in there relatively well are the BDCs: Fifth Street (FSC -1.3%), Triangle (TCAP -1%), MCG (MCGC -1.2%), Hercules (HTGC -1.2%), Ares (ARCC -0.3%).
- BDC ETFs: BDCS, BDCL, BIZD.
- In emerging markets fixed income, a trader takes note of EDD, a closed-end fund now trading at more than a 15% discount to NAV.
- Emerging market bond ETFs: EMB, LEMB, PCY, EMLC, ELD, PFEM, EBND, VWOB.
May 9, 2013, 11:14 AM
PowerShares adds another to the emerging market debt ETF space, prepping the launch of the Fundamental Emerging Markets Local Debt Portfolio (PFEM), with annual cost of 0.50%. The fund will join a space anchored by PowerShares' own PCY, WisdomTree's ELD, and iShares' EMB. Others: LEMB, EMLC.| May 9, 2013, 11:14 AM
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