Wed, Nov. 30, 12:11 PM
- Those getting mortgages prior to last few weeks were "likely the last" to lock in at historically low rates, says the NAR's Larry Yun following this morning's disappointing Pending Home Sales report.
- That report was for October, but in more current news, mortgage applications dove another 9.4% in the week ended Nov. 25 (seasonally adjusted). They've been on a downward track for a few weeks, with the speed mostly picking up amid the sharp rise in rates since the election.
- Turning to rates, the 10-year Treasury yield is carving out a new 12-month-plus high, up 11 basis points to 2.40%.
- The S&P 500 is flat, but the ITB is down 1.8%, and XHB 1.2%.
- Toll Brothers (TOL -2.1%), Lennar (LEN -3.4%), Pulte (PHM -1.8%), D.R. Horton (DHI -3.8%), M.D.C. Holdings (MDC -2.1%), Taylor Morrison (TMHC -1.5%)
Thu, Nov. 17, 11:43 AM
- This morning's housing starts for October was off the charts - rising 25.5% from September to the fastest pace in nine years. Stripping out the notoriously volatile multifamily starts still leaves single family starts up 10.2% from September.
- Of course, interest rates continue to rise - with the 10-year Treasury yield up another three basis points to 2.26% - but the builders can worry about that another time.
- The S&P 500 is ahead 0.35%, with the homebuilders are outperforming by a mile.
- Toll Brothers (TOL +2.9%), LGI Homes (LGIH +6.2%), Taylor Morrison (TMHC +3.5%), KB Home (KBH +2.4%), Lennar (LEN +2.5%), Hovnanian (HOV +1.4%), Pulte (PHM +2.7%), D.R. Horton (DHI +3.2%), NVR (NVR +1.8%)
Tue, Nov. 1, 9:59 AM
- Discussions about homebuilding M&A have been picking up of late, says analyst Will Randow, and he expects the next deal will likely be one public company acquiring another, rather than a smaller private player.
- "Aside from the normal benefits of M&A, we believe larger public builders may be more inclined to acquire the young (i.e. smaller public) given the slower paced recovery environment that exhibits lower pricing power," says Randow, who picks D.R. Horton (NYSE:DHI) as best-positioned to be a buyer.
- Other possible acquirers include: KB Home (NYSE:KBH), Meritage (NYSE:MTH), PulteGroup (NYSE:PHM), Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL), and TRI Pointe (NYSE:TPH).
- Potential targets: Century Communities (NYSE:CCS), Green Brick Partners (NASDAQ:GRBK), M.D.C. Homes (NYSE:MDC), Meritage (also on the buyer list), New Home (NYSE:NWHM), Taylor Morrison (NYSE:TMHC), UCP, William Lyon (NYSE:WLH).
- Randow's top accretive scenario ... TRI Pointe buying William Lyon.
Thu, Oct. 20, 7:24 AM
- Q3 net income of $128M or $0.37 per share included pretax charges of $31M or $0.06 per share thanks to the settlement of a disputed land deal, restructuring costs associated with previously announced plans to cut expenses, and costs relating to shareholder activities. Backing all those out means the company more or less meet expectations.
- Home sales revenue up 29% Y/Y to $1.9B, with deliveries up 16% and ASP up 11% to $374K.
- Net new orders up 17% to 4,775 homes; value of orders up 25% to $1.8B.
- Backlogs up 8% to 9,417 homes; up 20% in value to $3.7B.
- Conference call at 8:30 ET
- Previously: PulteGroup misses by $0.07, misses on revenue (Oct. 20)
- PHM no trades premarket
Thu, Oct. 20, 6:33 AM
Wed, Oct. 19, 5:30 PM
Tue, Sep. 20, 12:25 PM
- Lennar (NYSE:LEN) was initially higher following this morning's earnings beat, but has turned lower by 4.3% amid cautious earnings call comments on margins.
- Also at work is today's housing starts report which showed an unexpected sharp decline from July to August, with single-family starts dropping to a 10-month low.
- ITB -1.4%, XHB -0.9%
- Hovnanian (HOV -0.9%), KB Home (KBH -1.4%), Pulte (PHM -3.2%), D.R. Horton (DHI -1.2%), Toll Brothers (TOL -1.4%), Taylor Morrison (TMHC -2.5%), LGI Homes (LGIH -1.3%)
Mon, Sep. 19, 12:01 PM
- The NAHB Index jumped six points to a one-year high of 65 this month vs. expectations for just a marginal gain.
- "With the inventory of new and existing homes remaining tight, builders are confident that if they can build more homes they can sell them," says NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz.
- The Lindsey Group's Peter Boockvar calls this month's print "ebullient," but says the key to sustain things will be the behavior of the first-time homebuyer. We're at a 50-year low in the homeownership rate - will potential first-timers continue to prefer renting? The area most in need of new homes are those priced below $250K (to better compete against renting), but margin issues don't make this a terribly profitable segment for homebuilders.
- ITB +1.9%, XHB +1.5%
- Toll Brothers (TOL +1.4%), PulteGroup (PHM +3.1%), D.R. Horton (DHI +2.5%), Lennar (LEN +2.5%), Hovnanian (HOV +2.4%)
Thu, Sep. 8, 9:03 AM
- PulteGroup (NYSE:PHM) President Ryan Marshall has been chosen to succeed Richard Dugas as CEO, effective immediately.
- Dugas earlier this year had announced his intention to retire at some point in the future, but the company's founder and largest shareholder William Pulte wanted him out immediately, and pushed the board for a independent and thorough search for a replacement.
- While the selection of Marshall as new CEO suggests Dugas got what he wanted, Pulte is on board with the move as his grandson Bill Pulte has been added to the Board, with Pulte agreeing to vote his shares (about 9% of the company) in favor of all Board nominees as long as his grandson serves.
- Pulte (the younger): "My grandfather and I fully support the Company's Value Creation strategy ... We also welcome today's announcement that the Board has named Ryan Marshall as the Company's new CEO."
- Dugas will remain as Executive Chairman of the Board through the 2017 annual meeting.
Thu, Sep. 8, 7:41 AM
Tue, Jul. 26, 7:35 PM
- PulteGroup (NYSE:PHM) has priced an upsized debt offering of $1B in senior notes.
- The company said it saw strong demand for senior unsecured notes and now offers two tranches: $400M of its existing 4.25% senior notes due 2021, and $600M in 5% senior notes due 2027.
- The 2021 notes were offered at 103.5% of principal (YTM of 3.419%), and the 2027 notes offered at par with YTM of 5%.
- The company will use proceeds to repay $400M outstanding on its term loan and all revolving credit, as well as general purposes. The new offering is expected to close Friday.
Tue, Jul. 26, 10:16 AM
- June new home sales came in at a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 592K, up from May's rate of 572K, and the fastest pace since February 2008.
- Expectations had been for 560K.
- The median price of $306.7K was up 6% Y/Y, and inventory fell to 4.9 months at the current sales pace.
- New home sales in Q2 were up 10% from Q1.
- The ITB popped higher on the news, but has retreated a bit since, now up 0.2% on the session. XHB +0.4%
- Toll Brothers (TOL +0.2%), Hovnanian (HOV +0.8%), Lennar (LEN -0.7%), KB Home (KBH +0.1%), PulteGroup (PHM +0.1%)
Mon, Jul. 25, 7:30 AM
- PulteGroup (NYSE:PHM) is higher by 1.7% premarket following an upgrade to Buy from Hold from Deutsche's Nishu Sood. New management is likely to drive faster growth and quicker monetization of assets, says Sood, with the boosted returns driving boosted valuation. The price target is lifted to $27 from $20, suggesting about 24% upside from Friday's close.
Fri, Jul. 22, 7:57 AM
- "Stir It Up ... Little Darlin' Stir It Up," goes the title of a note from Susquehanna's Jack Micenko, lifting his price target on PulteGroup (NYSE:PHM) to $27 from $23.
- Most exciting to him is the company plan to slow land purchases, and instead buy back $1.5B of stock between now and the end of next year - a considerable amount for a $7B market cap stock. Management also indicated it may borrow a bit to fund the repurchases.
- The buybacks and promised reductions in expenses have Micenko raising his 2017 full-year EPS estimate to $2.31 from $2.08.
- Shares flat premarket at $21.51 after yesterday's 5.3% advance.
Thu, Jul. 21, 1:54 PM
- Noting a sizable move higher in the stock price, management's commitment to slow land purchases, three new board members (including one with homebuilding experience, and two to join the CEO search), boosted buybacks, and a promise to cut SG&A expense, PulteGroup (PHM +4.2%) founder William Pulte is pleased with changes since he started agitating for them a bit more than three months ago.
- Next steps he'd like to see include selection of a new CEO after a fair and fast process, reduction of land inventory, more board seats for executives with homebuilding experience, and solid operational execution and retention of key talent.
- Previously: Pulte beats, boosts buyback, adds board members; +3.3% premarket (July 21)
- Previously: Elliott Management thinks Pulte could be a double - CNBC (July 21)
Thu, Jul. 21, 11:42 AM
- Pulte's (PHM +3.2%) Value Creation plan could push the stock price to $35-$40 from the current $20 area, says a talking-its-book Elliott Management, according to CNBC's Scott Wapner.
- Said plan includes forgoing land purchases for stock buybacks, and a promise to cut costs.
- Elliott's deal with the board was more about adding new directors, rather than the immediate removal of CEO Richard Dugas, adds Wapner.
- Yet to be heard from is Pulte's largest shareholder and founder, William Pulte.
- Previously: Pulte beats, boosts buyback, adds board members; +3.3% premarket (July 21)