Thu, Jan. 7, 6:38 PM
- Gold and silver miners are the lone rose growing in this week's stock market garbage heap, as the out-of-favor group responds to the highest gold prices in two months amid the flight to perceived safe havens.
- China’s move to devalue its currency at once stokes worries that growth in the world’s no. 2 economy is more sluggish than feared and that other Asian countries will retaliate with devaluations of their own to keep exports competitive, which could bode well for further gold price upside.
- This week's results so far for top precious metals miners: HMY +53.7%, ABX +18.4%, IAG +14.3%, AEM +14.1%, GFI +13.2%, AUY +12.9%, SBGL +12.8%, AU +11.2%, EGO +10.8%, GG +10.1%, KGC +9.9%, FNV +7.9%, GOLD +6.1%, NEM +4.9%, SLW +4.6%.
- ETFs: GDX, NUGT, GGN, DUST, SIL, GLDX, SGDM, ASA, SLVP, RING, PSAU, TGLDX, PICK, GDXS, GDXX
Aug. 11, 2015, 11:35 AM
- Commodity metals are getting hammered by China's devaluation, with aluminum trading down nearly 2%, copper prices lower by 2.5% and nickel plunging more than 3.5%.
- Hardest hit of the mining stocks is Freeport McMoRan (FCX -14.1%), which has completely surrendered yesterday's 10.8% surge; shares now are down 72% over the past year and 57% YTD.
- Iron ore miners are sharply lower: BHP -5.5%, RIO -4.2%, VALE -7.8%, CLF -7.3%.
- Steel companies: X -9.7%, MT -5.1%, AKS -5.7%, NUE -2.9%, STLD -3.5%, CMC -4%.
- Also: AA -6%, CENX -4.9%, TCK -8.2%, SCCO -4.9%.
- ETFs: XLB, JJC, XME, SLX, PEO, VAW, COPX, DBB, UYM, CU, IYM, JJN, SMN, JJU, PICK, MATL, CPER, JJT, BOM, RJZ, FXZ, PYZ, BOS, FOIL, JJM, LD, BDD
Jun. 5, 2015, 12:41 PM
- The overall market capitalization of the world's 40 biggest miners has been cut in half over four years, sinking 16% Y/Y to $791B at the end of 2014, according to the latest annual survey by accounting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers.
- PwC said the top 40 miners' return on capital employed fell to its lowest level since at least 2005, and few companies, including Randgold Resources (NASDAQ:GOLD) and Norlisk Nickel (OTCPK:NILSY), topped 15%.
- The top 40's dividend coverage was just 1.1x, a practice PwC says "isn’t sustainable in the long term... dividends paid in 2014 consumed all available cash, reducing the balance sheet flexibility of miners."
- The consequence of the payouts and the falling market cap is that miners’ dividend yield rose to 5%, the highest in a decade.
- ETFs: GDX, NUGT, GGN, DUST, SIL, GLDX, XME, COPX, SGDM, BCX, ASA, SLVP, CU, RING, HAP, IRV, PSAU, MXI, GNR, TGLDX, PICK
Mar. 4, 2015, 7:47 AM
- The open bars, oysters, prime rib, rowdy parties, and luxury hotel suites are a thing of the past at the annual Toronto gathering of the Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada, having instead given way to chips and dip and Airbnb rentals thanks to the years-long slump in the sector.
- "I’m really depressed that I have to drink bourbon versus single malt scotch, it just doesn’t do it for me," says Ben Cox, CEO of Aston Bay Holdings (check out a price chart; it's a bet his shareholders feel even worse). "Everyone is panicked in the industry. If you are not humbled this year, whether you work for a major or a junior or anyone in-between, you are insane."
- "Flat is the new up," says another attendee. The gathering is "a little bit depressing," but a sign of the times.
- ETFs: GDXJ, JNUG, XME, JDST, SILJ, IGE, JUNR, PICK
Jan. 14, 2015, 7:57 AM
- Mining stocks look headed for sizable losses, as copper prices sink to five-and-a-half year lows and the World Bank lowers its forecast for global economic growth.
- Glencore (OTCPK:GLCNF, OTCPK:GLNCY) -11.5% in London trading, Antofagasta (OTC:ANFGF) -7% in London, Anglo American (OTCPK:AAUKF, OTCPK:AAUKY) -9.5% in London, Vedanta (OTCPK:VDNRF) -18% in London, Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO) -4.3% premarket in the U.S., VALE -2.9%, FCX -5.1%, CLF -2.6%.
- BHP Billiton (NYSE:BHP) -7.5% in London and -5.5% U.S. premarket after S&P Capital IQ downgraded shares to Hold from Buy, expecting "weaker commodity prices to increasingly impact on group profits as hedges expire and see currency headwinds from a stronger [U.S. dollar]."
- ETFs: XLB, XME, SLX, COPX, VAW, UYM, CU, IYM, HAP, IRV, MXI, SMN, GNR, GUNR, PICK, MATL, FXZ, PYZ, CRBQ, RTM, CCXE, FMAT, GRES, SBM
Mar. 12, 2014, 6:56 PM
- While steep drops in copper, iron ore and coking coal prices have spooked investors, KGHM chief Derek White says there's no need for mining executives to panic - at least not yet.
- There's no real threat to copper mining operations at a long-term copper price ~$3/lb., White says, but that could change if the price drops below $2.50 for a prolonged period.
- Iron ore prices have performed better than expected in recent years, and this week’s drop brings them closer to many forecasts; analysts believe most iron ore projects are fine at a long-term price above $100/metric ton.
- Coking coal's current $110/metric ton is still not low enough to disrupt most operations, with some exceptions; TD Securities expects Teck Resources (TCK) to defer its Quintette project in British Columbia until the market recovers.
- ETFs: XME, COPX, CU, JUNR, PICK, JJC, DBB, CPER, RJZ, BOM, BOS, JJM, BDD, CUPM, RGRI, UBM, BDG, USMI, HEVY
Mar. 10, 2014, 10:45 AM
- The 8.3% dive in the price of iron ore to $104.70 per ton is the 2nd largest one-day decline on record, and came following weekend data showing an 18.1% Y/Y slump in Chinese exports in February (a gain of 7.5% was expected). While miners like BHP and RIO remain optimistic about supply/demand dynamics (though dour on price prospects), Goldman - picking one analyst team - sees the market moving into surplus in H2 and prices falling below $100 per ton.
- The Shanghai Composite fell 2.9% overnight and Brazil's Bovespa is down 2% in the early-going. Australia (EWA) declined 0.9% and the aussie (FXA) is off 0.6% to $0.9017.
- The steelmaking ingredient is off 22% YTD and at its lowest price since October 2012.
- In the meantime, the rumors are flying, including speculation a mill in China's Shanxi province defaulted on Friday and shut five to six furnaces. There's also chatter about banks looking to call in 20% of loans to private steel companies.
- EWZ -2.1%, VALE -2.8%.
- Brazil ETFs: EWZ, BRF, BRXX, EWZS, BRAQ, BRAZ, BZQ, BRZU, BRAF, UBR, BRZS, DBBR, FBZ
- Base metal mining ETFs: XME, JUNR, PICK
Nov. 15, 2013, 12:52 PM
- The basic materials sector has badly lagged the broader market YTD, and Miller Tabak's Jonathan Krinsky surmises investor rotation into the group is likely if the overall market rally is set to continue.
- Krinsky's charts tell him the sector has been making higher lows since the 2009 bottom, but unlike the broad market and many other sectors, it has yet to clear its 2007-08 highs, giving the look of an ascending triangle - and the presumption of an upside resolution.
- ETFs: XLB, XME, JUNR, PICK, MSXX, FMAT.
Sep. 12, 2013, 2:58 PM
- Oppenheimer analysts are believers in the materials sector, citing increasing evidence that the global economy is modestly improving from its recent lethargic pace of growth, particularly in emerging markets.
- Strategas isn't so sure; despite some stronger equity performance in recent weeks, it sees the persistence of cyclical weakness in emerging economies and the apparent forming of a structural consolidation in global commodities complex; it favors companies with a higher domestic revenue profile over those with a broader global footprint.
- Vulcan Materials (VMC) gets just 1% of its revenue overseas, while Airgas (ARG) has just 2%; those least exposed to the U.S. economy include Newmont Mining (NEM), which gets all of its revenue abroad, and International Flavors (IFF) and Owens-Illinois (OI), which each get 23%-24% of sales at home.
- ETFs: XLB, XME, EMT, PICK, JUNR. MSXX.
Sep. 11, 2013, 10:56 AM
- BofA Merrill Lynch sees huge contrarian value in global mining and steel companies while investors remain underweight in their holdings.
- A stronger global economy is coming, BAML says, noting China has been restocking iron ore, the pace of copper destocking in the country has slowed, and global steel prices have been rising.
- The top buys from the firm: ATI in steel, CNX in coal, ABX and KGC in precious metals, KALU in aluminum, and SCCO in copper, plus diversified miners FCX and VALE.
- ETFs: XME, XLB, EMT, PICK, JUNR, MSXX.
Jan. 7, 2013, 12:06 PM
Among 2012's top 12 new ETFs is iShares' bet on investor interest in miners outside of gold and silver (PICK). High yield investors (HYG, JNK) may want a look at Barclays' Short-Term High Yield Bond Fund (SJNK). In emerging markets, iShares undercuts its emerging market ETF (EEM) with IEMG, giving exposure to small-caps and an expense ratio of just 18 bps, about 50 bps less than EEM.| Jan. 7, 2013, 12:06 PM | 1 Comment
Jun. 12, 2012, 5:07 AM
Some mining companies (including BHP and RIO) that have relied mostly on surface mining are now going deeper, allowing them to continue using mining, processing and transport infrastructure even after the surface deposits are depleted. New technologies and the high price of commodities are making the unusually-deep mines financially feasible, but going deeper isn't without its risks.| Jun. 12, 2012, 5:07 AM | 3 Comments