Prologis: The Logistics Opportunity
Dane Bowler • 11 Comments
Dane Bowler • 11 Comments
Thu, Dec. 1, 5:05 PM
Mon, Nov. 28, 10:07 AM
Mon, Nov. 7, 10:30 AM
- Now it's the team at Evercore ISI, and analyst Steve Sakwa says the "noisy" Q3 earnings season has created buying opportunities, with AFFO multiples at their lowest since Dec. 2013, and implied cap rates about 400 basis points above the 10-year Treasury yield (vs. a typical 320 bps).
- Noting either strong fundamentals or attractive valuations, he's a fan of Paramount Group (PGRE +0.2%), General Growth (GGP +1.5%), Vornado (VNO +0.9%), Prologis (PLD +1.4%), CubeSmart (CUBE +1.8%), Brixmor (BRX +0.7%), Life Storage (LSI +2%), Simon Property (SPG +0.3%), Mack-Cali (CLI +1.2%).
- Previously: American Assets, Macerich, and DDR win sell-side upgrades (Nov. 7)
- Previously: Barron's: REITs are on sale (Nov. 5)
- ETFs: VNQ, IYR, DRN, RQI, URE, SCHH, ICF, RWR, SRS, RNP, RFI, JRS, KBWY, NRO, DRV, RIT, RIF, REK, DRA, FRI, FTY, FREL, LRET, PSR, WREI, XLRE, IARAX, RORE
Tue, Nov. 1, 3:12 PM
- Having too hard of a time finding any more warehouse space in the country's largest cities, Prologis (PLD -2.6%) will start construction next year on the U.S.'s first multistory warehouse.
- Such buildings are common in land-starved countries like Japan and Singapore.
- There's surely plenty of space left in the U.S., but the new e-commerce reality means retailers need their product right close to customers. It's pushed up the value of industrial land and rental rates to new heights, not to mention the stock prices of industrial REITs, of which Prologis is the largest.
- The company says it's exploring multistory warehouse space in other cities like NYC, San Francisco, and the west side of L.A. This particular Seattle project - to be completed in 2018 - has no tenants yet. It won't be cheap as rental rates for multistory facilities could be up to 50% higher than standard warehouse rates.
Tue, Nov. 1, 10:07 AM
- Reiterating an Outperform rating and $57 price target (9.6% upside) on ProLogis (NYSE:PLD), analyst Steve Manaker expects the Street's current $2.64 2017 estimate to migrate towards his $2.70.
- That small move is significant for a REIT given the long-term nature of leases, says Manaker, but he expects warehouse markets to remain landlord-friendly. He's modeling 10% leasing spreads next year, and keeping occupancy flat at 96.7%. Also conservative, he's pricing in just the current $3.4B development pipeline rather than assuming new developments (which he typically does).
Thu, Oct. 20, 8:05 AM
Wed, Oct. 19, 5:30 PM
Tue, Oct. 18, 10:31 AM
- Analyst Steve Sakwa may be late to the logistics party - Prologis (NYSE:PLD) is higher by 20% YTD and 37% from the Feb. 11 bottom - but he thinks there's another leg up.
- He sees demand for industrial space continuing to exceed oncoming supply through 2017 thanks to the continuing surge in e-commerce.
- He upgrades to Buy from Hold, with price target of $56 suggesting about 12% upside.
- PLD is lower by 0.8% today.
Tue, Sep. 20, 3:06 PM
- The P-E giant has agreed to buy a portfolio of mostly West Coast logistics centers from LBA Realty for $1.5B, reports the WSJ.
- In the age of Amazon.com logistics is the hottest part of the commercial property sector, with prices for distribution centers and such still on the rise even as those for things like office buildings and malls show signs of cooling.
- "Distribution used to be just another part of the supply chain. Now logistics has moved up in its importance in corporate strategy," says Charles Sullivan of Global Logistics Properties.
- Interested parties (other than BX): Stag Industrial (NYSE:STAG), Prologis (NYSE:PLD), Liberty Property (NYSE:LPT), First Industrial (NYSE:FR), DCT Industrial (NYSE:DCT), Eastgroup (NYSE:EGP), Rexford Industrial (NYSE:REXR), Terreno Realty (NYSE:TRNO), Monmouth (NYSE:MNR), Gramercy Property (NYSE:GPT).
Thu, Sep. 8, 9:06 AM
Wed, Aug. 17, 7:29 AM
- Prologis (NYSE:PLD), Cousins Properties (NYSE:CUZ), Parkway Properties (NYSE:PKY), and Washington REIT (NYSE:WRE) are all downgraded to Neutral from Outperform.
- The group is up between 10% and 25% for the year, and between 27% and 45% from the February lows, so they're sporting fancier valuations with the chance of rate hike(s) looming.
Wed, Jul. 20, 1:11 PM
- It's a valuation call as Credit Suisse downgrades Prologis (PLD -0.8%) to Neutral from Outperform. The $48 price target compares to the current $51.28.
- The company reported an earnings beat yesterday, but didn't raise full-year guidance, which may have helped spook the analyst.
- 2016 is the year of logistics, and Prologis is higher by nearly 50% since the February bottom.
Tue, Jul. 19, 8:20 AM
- Q2 core FFO of $0.60 vs. $0.52 one year ago. Expectations were for $0.59.
- Net effective same-store rent up 6.1% vs. 5.9% in Q2 one year ago. U.S. led the way with 7.5% gain. Net effective rent change on rollover of 17.8% vs. 16.6% a year ago.
- Full-year core FFO per share guidance is narrowed to $2.52-$2.58 from $2.50-$2.60. Same-store NOI is raised to 4.75-5.25% from 4-4.5%.
- Conference call at 12 ET
- Previously: Prologis beats by $0.01, beats on revenue (July 19)
- PLD flat premarket
Tue, Jul. 19, 8:05 AM
Tue, Jul. 19, 7:37 AM
Mon, Jul. 18, 5:30 PM