PLW
PowerShares 1-30 Laddered Treasury Portfolio ETFNASDAQ
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  • Thu, Nov. 10, 11:06 AM
    | Thu, Nov. 10, 11:06 AM | 49 Comments
  • Tue, Nov. 8, 4:39 AM
    | Tue, Nov. 8, 4:39 AM | 1 Comment
  • Wed, Sep. 21, 9:47 AM
    | Wed, Sep. 21, 9:47 AM
  • Tue, Sep. 20, 1:50 PM
    | Tue, Sep. 20, 1:50 PM | 13 Comments
  • Tue, Sep. 20, 7:37 AM
    • Two of the Fed's 23 primary dealers - Barclays and BNP Paribas - are betting against their 21 peers and the bond market as a whole by forecasting the FOMC will boost interest rates tomorrow.
    • "There will always be some uncertainties in the data," says BNP's Laura Rosner. "There is a window of opportunity for the Fed to continue normalizing, and we think it’ll take it.”
    • In addition to the 21 primary dealers who disagree, Fed Fund futures traders are pricing in just a 20% chance the FOMC moves on Wednesday, down from 40% about three weeks ago.
    • Barclays: "We're not the crazy house - this is the first time we've been so far out of consensus on the view ... We’ve kept our conviction on September because we think that’s what the FOMC has communicated to us."
    • ETFs: SHY, BIL, PLW, VGSH, SHV, STPP, GOVT, SCHO, FLAT, FTT, EGF, SST, DTUS, TUZ, DTUL, TAPR, USFR, TFLO, RISE, GBIL
    | Tue, Sep. 20, 7:37 AM | 4 Comments
  • Wed, Sep. 14, 1:07 PM
    • Was it just a week or two ago when many were warning the Fed against tightening into a flattening yield curve?
    • Well, the spread between 30-year and 5-year Treasury paper has now risen for its ninth consecutive day - the longest streak since 2012, according to Bloomberg. Why? Traders are increasingly convinced the Fed will stay on hold this month, and maybe for some time beyond that.
    • ETFs: PLW, STPP, GOVT, FLAT, FTT, EGF, TAPR
    | Wed, Sep. 14, 1:07 PM | 1 Comment
  • Tue, Sep. 13, 7:58 AM
    • It's a close call, says the WSJ's Jon Hilsenrath, but the hawks on the Fed are lacking enough of a consensus to push through a rate hike next week, leaving December as probably the next option for a move.
    • Janet Yellen's job for the next week, says Hilsenrath, will be meeting privately with FOMC members to sound out their views and plot her plan for the meeting. She'll face a divided group and the potential for more internal dissent than has been common since she took over two years ago.
    • Previously: Goldman cuts rate hike odds after Brainard speech (Sept. 13)
    • ETFs: PLW, GOVT, FTT, EGF, TAPR
    | Tue, Sep. 13, 7:58 AM
  • Mon, Sep. 12, 8:31 AM
    • "Extrapolation of the last 35 years will be one of the most dangerous things that policy makers and investors can do going forward," write analysts Jim Reid, Nick Burns and Sukanto Chanda.
    • Included in the report is an amazing chart showing real returns by the decade in developed bond markets. Prior to the 1980s, decades of negative returns were well mixed in which those of positive returns across every economy. From 1980 to present, though, there's not one period of negative returns for even one developed-economy bond market. Not one.
    • The best case scenario as domestic financing markets start to struggle will be some form of capital controls. One might argue this is already occurring through new regulations all-but-forcing banks, insurers, and pension funds to buy domestic paper for reasons other than value.
    • Worst case is a "hard break" in which a major country defaults on its debt.
    • Neither scenario is likely to be favorable for the owners of long-dated fixed-income assets.
    • ETFs: AGG, BND, BOND, PTY, RCS, GIM, BNDX, DBL, BTZ, HTR, SCHZ, BWX, PCM, JHI, BHK, PLW, BNDS, IGOV, GOVT, JMM, TAI, INC, ICB, FTT, FBND, VBF
    | Mon, Sep. 12, 8:31 AM | 21 Comments
  • Fri, Sep. 9, 12:07 PM
    | Fri, Sep. 9, 12:07 PM | 1 Comment
  • Wed, Sep. 7, 8:15 AM
    • The reason may not be what everyone thinks. CIO Rick Rieder and team aren't expecting a hawkish Fed to quickly jack up rates at the short end. Instead, they see a central bank likely to allow inflation to run above the 2% target for at least some time - not good for holders of long-dated Treasurys.
    • The value, says Rieder, is thus in the shorter end of the curve.
    • ETFs: SHY, BIL, PLW, VGSH, SHV, STPP, GOVT, SCHO, FLAT, FTT, EGF, SST, DTUS, TUZ, DTUL, TAPR, RISE
    | Wed, Sep. 7, 8:15 AM
  • Wed, Jul. 13, 11:17 AM
    • Treasurys and related securities accounted for 39.7% of Pimco Total Return Fund's (MUTF:PTTRX) assets at June's end, up from 36.4% a month earlier. June's level is the highest for Treasurys since December 2014.
    • Duration also increased to 5.7 years from 4.7 at the end of May.
    • One wonders how much of the boost came in June's final week amid the panic buying in government paper following the Brexit vote.
    • One of three managers of the fund, Mark Kiesel says the Fed is likely to stay on hold for several months, but traders - who aren't pricing in a rate hike until 2018 - are probably overdoing it.
    • ETFs: PLW, STPP, GOVT, FLAT, FTT, EGF, TAPR, USFR, TFLO
    | Wed, Jul. 13, 11:17 AM
  • Thu, Jul. 7, 2:08 PM
    • With $13.4T in Treasury paper out there, the U.S. government bond market is the largest and most liquid one in the world. But at least one fund manager worries whether he'll be able to get his hands on any in some future bull move. "The scarcity factor is there but it really becomes palpable during periods of stress when yields immediately collapse,’’ says Christopher Sullivan. "You may be shut out of the bond market just when you need it the most.’’
    • Source: Min Zeng and Christopher Whittall in the WSJ
    • The Fed owns more than 20% of all Treasury debt outstanding, a near-double since before the financial crisis.
    • Meantime in the U.K., the BoE owns about 25% of that country's debt; the BOJ more than 33% of Japan's paper; the ECB about 15% of Germany's bonds.
    • Toss out paper with negative yields (20-year JGBs just went below zero), and there's not a lot of high-grade, positive-yielding paper out there. Those feeling the pinch the most are pension funds and life insurance firms. For this reason, money manager Nigel Jenkins expects any rise in bond yields to be quickly met with a wave of buying from the yield-starved institutions.
    • ETFs: IEF, PST, JGBS, JGBD, IEI, TYO, UST, PLW, DTYS, VGIT, GOVT, BUNL, TBX, SCHR, FTT, ITE, JGBL, GSY, BUNT, TYD, DTYL, GGOV, EGF, JGBT, DFVL, JGBB, TAPR, TBZ, DFVS, TYNS
    | Thu, Jul. 7, 2:08 PM | 1 Comment
  • Mon, Jun. 6, 8:20 AM
    • The team at Goldman figures fixed-income investors stand to lose $1T if Treasury yields unexpectedly rise 100 basis points. That would be greater than than the sum of realized losses on non-agency MBS. “Some investor entities would likely experience significant distress,” say the bank's analysts.
    • Exactly what is meant by "unexpected" would be up for debate. Surveys for years have consistently shown investors expecting interest rates to be higher in future months, and the current median forecast in a Bloomberg poll is for the 10-year Treasury yield to be at 2.6% a year from now and 3.3% in 2018 vs. the current 1.7%.
    • ETFs: PLW, STPP, GOVT, FLAT, FTT, EGF, TAPR, USFR, TFLO
    | Mon, Jun. 6, 8:20 AM | 6 Comments
  • Thu, May 19, 3:11 PM
    • Like a decade ago, the Fed is in the process of hiking interest rates following an extended period of unprecedentedly low rates which had been put in place to combat plunging asset prices.
    • The 2006 rate hike cycle (which started a couple of years earlier) was meant to "normalize" rates and set in place a soft landing for the economy ... It didn't exactly work out that way.
    • As with then, writes Randall Forsyth, the PhDs at the Fed are ignoring the flattening yield curve. As pointed out by him and others numerous times ten years ago, the failure of long-term rates to follow short-term rates higher was a bright yellow warning sign. The Maestro explained it away as a "conundrum," and his successor Ben Bernanke pointed to a global savings glut as putting a damper on rates at the long end.
    • The Fed may indeed follow through on its words and hike in June, but don't be surprised if it's the last, says MFR's Josh Shapiro. "A weakening labor market and an overall market fraying around the edges will keep the Fed on hold for the balance of the year before further weakness leads to easing moves in 2017."
    • Previously: Recession warning: Yield curve flattest since Dec. 2007 (May 18)
    • ETFs: SHY, BIL, PLW, VGSH, SHV, STPP, GOVT, SCHO, FLAT, FTT, EGF, SST, DTUS, TUZ, DTUL, TAPR, USFR, TFLO, RISE
    | Thu, May 19, 3:11 PM | 2 Comments
  • Wed, May 18, 8:57 AM
    • The spread between the yield on 10-year and 2-year Treasurys has fallen to just 94 basis points, that's down from 165 bps a year ago, and the slimmest margin since Dec. 2007.
    • As with the 2007 experience, most economists assure the yield curve isn't flashing a recession warning, but instead is reflecting goings-on having nothing to do with the economy. In 2016, it's overseas central banks and their negative interest rates to blame, says Deutsche's chief international economist Torsten Slok.
    • Money managers brush it off as well: “The bond market had better predictive powers in the past than it does now,” says Craig Brothers, who manages a $3B municipal bond portfolio.
    • Let's return in a year and see where things stand.
    • ETFs: IEF, PST, IEI, TYO, UST, PLW, DTYS, VGIT, STPP, GOVT, FLAT, TBX, SCHR, FTT, ITE, GSY, TYD, DTYL, EGF, DFVL, TAPR, TBZ, USFR, DFVS, TYNS, TFLO
    | Wed, May 18, 8:57 AM
  • Mon, May 16, 12:34 PM
    • The Kingdom is an owner of $116.8B of U.S. government paper, according to data released today by the Treasury Department. That puts Saudi Arabia among the top dozen foreign holders of Treasurys. Number one China owns $1.3T of the stuff, and number two Japan $1.1T.
    • The numbers had been kept secret for decades, but Treasury disclosed the data in response to a FOIA request.
    • ETFs: PLW, GOVT, FTT, EGF, TAPR
    | Mon, May 16, 12:34 PM | 18 Comments
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