Philip Morris Versus The Competition: The Smoke Signals Interpreted (Final Part)
Timberwolf Equity Research • 22 Comments
Timberwolf Equity Research • 22 Comments
Tue, Apr. 19, 6:08 AM
- Philip Morris (NYSE:PM) reports revenue rose 2.4% if the impact of the currency swings is backed out in Q1.
- European Union revenue down 4.5% to $1.86B.
- Eastern Europe, Middle East & Africa revenue decreased 10.2% to $1.6B.
- Asia revenue squeezed 8.7% to $1.97B.
- Latin America & Canada revenue dropped 10.5% to $650M.
- Cigarette volume excluding acquisitions fell 1.4% to 196.04B units.
- Gross margin rate declined 160 bps to 23.7%.
- Adjusted operating margin 280 bps to 41.9%.
- FY2016 Guidance: Adjusted EPS: $4.40 to $4.50 (~+10% to +12%).
Tue, Apr. 19, 5:49 AM
Mon, Apr. 18, 5:30 PM
Thu, Apr. 14, 1:36 PM
- Morgan Stanley identifies 30 stocks for investors to snap up and hold until 2019.
- The investment firm narrowed its list by focusing on strong brands/franchises with distinct competitive advantages, while also scoring strong on pricing power, cost efficiency, and growth.
- The MS list includes Accenture (NYSE:ACN), Alphabet, Amazon.com, Apple, Blackstone Group (NYSE:BX),Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA), Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ), CVS Health (NYSE:CVS), Danaher (NYSE:DHR), Dollar General (NYSE:DG), Estee Lauder (NYSE:EL), Facebook, First Republic Bank (NYSE:FRC), HCA Holdings (NYSE:HCA), International Business Machines (NYSE:IBM), JPMorgan Chase, L Brands (NYSE:LB), Mettler-Toledo (NYSE:MTD), NextEra Energy (NYSE:NEE), Nike (NYSE:NKE), Panera Bread (NASDAQ:PNRA), Philip Morris International (NYSE:PM), Public Storage (NYSE:PSA), Ross Stores (NASDAQ:ROST), SBA Communications(NASDAQ:SBAC), ServiceMaster (NYSE:SERV), T-Mobile (NASDAQ:TMUS), Visa (NYSE:V), WhiteWave Foods (NYSE:WWAV), and Zayo Group Holdings (NYSE:ZAYO).
Thu, Mar. 24, 7:51 AM
- Analyst Lisa Lewandowski sees the potential for FX pressures to be less severe, and says volume declines are easing thanks to market share gains, a moderation in illicit trade, and lack of major tax increases in large markets this year.
- She upgrades PM to Buy from Neutral.
- See also: Tobacco pair trade from Merrill (March 24)
Tue, Mar. 15, 2:17 PM
- The introduction of new tobacco products isn't taking away from sales of traditional cigarettes as some expected, but appears to be having an "add-on effect" with consumers, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
- The trend gives tobacco companies more leverage to innovate with cannibalization fears pulled back.
- Though overall smoking rates are in decline, there's some evidence that cheaper gas prices in the U.S. have bolstered demand with regular smokers.
- Big Tobacco vs. the broad market over the last year: Altria (NYSE:MO) +20%, Philip Morris International (NYSE:PM) +24%, Reynolds American (NYSE:RAI) +46%, S&P 500 Index -1.9%.
Fri, Mar. 11, 2:22 AM
- California lawmakers have voted to make the nation's most populous state the second to raise the smoking age from 18 to 21 as part of a sweeping package of measures cracking down on tobacco products and electronic cigarettes.
- "With California having such a huge population, it's going to be very impactful nationwide," said Cathy Callaway, associate director of state and local campaigns for the American Cancer Society.
- Hawaii became the first state to lift the smoking age limit to 21 in January.
- Related stocks: LO, PM, MO, VGR, RAI, OTCQX:ITYBY, OTCPK:JAPAY, BTI, OTCQB:ECIG, OTCQB:VAPE, OTCPK:HPNN, OTCQB:MCIG, OTCQB:NTRR, OTCPK:VAPR, VPCO, OTC:AHII
Thu, Mar. 10, 9:54 AM
- RBC Capital lifts its price targets on two consumer staples heavyweights.
- Coca-Cola (KO +0.6%) is assigned a fresh of $51. KO is +4.5% YTD to $44.90. Shares yield 3.11%.
- Reynolds American (RAI +1.4%) earns a PT of $57. RAI is +12.8% YTD to $52.14. Shares yield 3.22%.
- There's been some debate that the run of consumer staples stocks is poised to end, but SA contributor Daryl Montgomery argues the sector is still a safe play on a technical view.
- Earlier this week, Evercore ISI's Rick Ross also came in positive on the sector (CNBC video).
- "You probably can't do much better than owning the staples on this breakout from a multiyear trading range ... against the backdrop of a world where yields are extremely low,"said Ross
- Related stocks: PM, PG, PEP, CL, ADM, KMB, STZ, DPS, SJM, HRL, CHD, TSN, HSY, CPB, [[BF.]], BF.B.
- Related ETFs: XLP, VDC, FXG, RHS, FSTA, PSL, PSCC.
Tue, Mar. 8, 9:10 AM
Sat, Feb. 27, 10:36 AM
- Investors continue to take refuge in consumer staples stocks in a strategy that tips off defensive positioning and accounts for some positive macroeconomic factors that are underpinning volume growth in the sector.
- Consumer staples stocks trading right at their 52-week high include Campbell Soup (NYSE:CPB), Kimberly-Clark (NYSE:KMB), General Mills (NYSE:GIS), Reynolds American (NYSE:RAI), Altria (NYSE:MO), Philip Morris (NYSE:PM), Church & Dwight (NYSE:CHD), Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO), Tyson Foods (NYSE:TSN), Sanderson Farms (NASDAQ:SAFM), B&G Foods (NYSE:BGS), and Cott Corporation (NYSE:COT).
- Even Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG) and Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT), which acted as drags on consumer staples ETFs last year with their heavy weightings, are outperforming the S&P 500 Index this year.
- Some analysts think political year uncertainty and global ZIRP and NIRP question marks could keep demand for staples strong.
- Related ETFs: XLP, VDC, FXG, RHS, FSTA, PSL, PSCC
- Analysis: Consumer Staples ETFs Are Looking More Attractive Than Ever (Feb. 16)
- Prediction time: Which consumer staples stock has the most upside in 2016?
Wed, Feb. 17, 9:38 AM
- Philip Morris International (PM +0.4%) reaffirms FY16 EPS guidance at $4.25-$4.35. The mid-point of the EPS range is slightly below the consensus estimate of $4.33.
- The fresh guidance assumes no new share repurchases by the company in 2016.
- "The company will revisit the potential for repurchases as the year unfolds, depending on the currency environment."
- Shares of Philip Morris trade just off their 52-week high of $90.56.
- Philip Morris CAGNY Conference press release (.pdf)
Thu, Feb. 4, 3:00 PM
- Philip Morris International (PM -1.3%) is down for the day, although ahead of tobacco peers, after a largely in-line Q4 report.
- As always, capital allocation is a key question with the company.
- SA contributor Bill Maurer weighs in: "Lower earnings will hurt cash flow, and a rising share count won't allow for as much of a dividend raise."
- PM yields 4.60% at today's share price.
- Previously: Philip Morris lower after earnings (Feb. 4)
Thu, Feb. 4, 7:16 AM
- Philip Morris (NYSE:PM) reports revenue was up 4.0% in Q4 if currency swings and the impact of acquisitions are backed out.
- Operating income fell 24% Y/Y to $2B, driven lower by a 31% drop in European Union OI.
- Cigarette volume fell 2.4% to 209.8B units during the quarter.
- The company expects 2016 EPS of $4.25 to $4.35 at prevailing exchange rates vs. $4.42 consensus.
- Previously: Philip Morris EPS in-line, misses on revenue (Feb. 04 2016)
- PM -2.55% premarket to $87.50.
Thu, Feb. 4, 7:04 AM
- Philip Morris (NYSE:PM): Q4 EPS of $0.81 in-line.
- Revenue of $6.39B (-11.3% Y/Y) misses by $100M.
- Shares -3% PM.
Wed, Feb. 3, 5:30 PM
- ABC, ABG, ABMD, ARW, AZN, BCE, BCO, BR, BSX, BZH, CARB, CFX, CHTR, CI, CLX, CMI, CMS, COP, COTY, CRS, CS, CSL, CUB, DFT, DLPH, DNKN, EQM, EQT, GLPI, GRUB, HIMX, ICE, IT, ITG, KELYA, LQDT, LVLT, MD, MHFI, MHO, MMC, MMP, MMS, MSCI, MSG, NAO, NYT, ODFL, OXY, PBH, PM, PPL, PRLB, PTEN, RDS.A, RFP, RL, RSTI, SBH, SNA, SPH, SQNS, STRA, TDC, TDY, TE, TPX, UTEK, VLP, VMC, WEC, XYL
Mon, Jan. 25, 12:00 PM
- Tobacco stocks and soft drinks names are mild outperformers on the day.
- Despite soft consumer spending trends, some retail analysts think 2016 sales for beer, cigarettes, and soft drinks will pick up in the U.S. as gas prices remain at low levels.
- Gainers today on a down market day include Dr. Pepper Snapple (DPS +1%), PepsiCo (PEP +0.7%), Coca-Cola (KO +0.7%), Coca-Cola Bottling Company (COKE +2.6%), Coca-Cola Enterprises (CCE +1.1%), Reynolds American (RAI +1.7%), Altrai (MO +1%), Philip Morris (PM +0.5%), and Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD +0.7%).
- Speculation that anti-soda and cigarette advocate Michael Bloomberg might run for president doesn't appear to be creating even a ripple of worry.
- Previously: Michael Bloomberg is seriously considering running for president (Jan. 23 2016)
Philip Morris International, Inc. is a holding company, which is engaged in the manufacturing and sale of cigarettes and other tobacco products in markets outside the U.S. Its local cigarette brands include Sampoerna, Dji Sam Soe and U Mild in Indonesia; Fortune, Champion and Hope in the... More
Sector: Consumer Goods
Country: United States
Other News & PR