Wed, Jan. 6, 9:49 AM
- Douglas Harter and team's top picks are those companies with operating businesses that can create their own investments: New Residential (NYSE:NRZ), PennyMac Mortgage (NYSE:PMT), Starwood Property (NYSE:STWD), and Two Harbors (NYSE:TWO).
- As for the names best-insulated from what's likely to be a series of rate hikes, Harter likes Starwood and Ares Commercial Real Estate (NYSE:ACRE).
- Looking more generally at the sector, Harter notes stocks on average are trading at a 25% discount to book value, meaning the risks from higher rates may already be baked in. While not seeing any catalyst to drive valuations higher, the average 14.7% dividend yield should provide a nice return.
- ETFs: MORL, REM, MORT, LMBS
Dec. 10, 2015, 4:33 PM
- PennyMac Mortgage (NYSE:PMT) declares $0.47/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
- Forward yield 11.64%
- Payable Jan. 28; for shareholders of record Dec. 28; ex-div Dec. 23.
Dec. 10, 2015, 10:32 AM
- The roughed-up mortgage sector sees some dip-buying as Barclays initiates coverage on PennyMac Mortgage Investment (PMT +3.5%) and PennyMac Financial Services (PFSI +0.9%) with Overweight ratings.
- The $21 price target on PMT is a 36% upside to last night's close. The $20 PT on PFSI represents 25% upside.
Nov. 24, 2015, 2:02 PM
- Consolidation in the servicer industry had been the norm prior to the housing crisis, with the market share of the top five at 59% in 2009 vs. 37% in 2001. In Q2 of this year, that market share had slipped to 40%. Nonbanks accounted for 9% of servicing in 2009, and 19% by 2014.
- With post-crisis increases in regulatory and counterparty oversight, significant boosts in costs to service mortgages (particularly NPLs), and new capital rules making it more costly to hold MSRs, it only makes sense for consolidation to return.
- Interested parties: PennyMac Mortgage (NYSE:PMT), Ocwen Financial (NYSE:OCN), Nationstar Mortgage (NYSE:NSM), New Residential (NYSE:NRZ), Altisource Portfolio (NASDAQ:ASPS), Walter Investment (NYSE:WAC).
Nov. 4, 2015, 4:59 PM
- PennyMac Mortgage (NYSE:PMT): Q3 EPS of $0.49
- Investment income of $90.77M (-14.6% Y/Y)
Nov. 3, 2015, 5:35 PM
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Oct. 7, 2015, 11:15 AM
- So roughed up are the mortgage REITS (REM +0.7%), that what's now a six-day rally in the sector is little more than a blip on the longer-term chart.
- There's no particular news today, but with much of the sector trading at somewhere in the area of a 15-20% or even higher discounts to book value, even the worst scenario on interest rates may be more than priced in.
- Leading the way higher today are Ellington Residential (EARN +4.3%), Javelin Mortgage (JMI +3.4%), Arlington Asset (though not a REIT) (AI +2.3%), Dynex Capital (DX +0.9%), Apollo Residential (AMTG +1.2%), PennyMac Mortgage (PMT +1%), Cherry Hill Mortgage (CHMI +1.2%), Hatteras Financial (HTS +0.5%), Two Harbors (TWO +0.8%). The action in Annaly Capital (NLY) and American Capital Agency (AGNC -0.3%) is more subdued.
- ETFs: MORL, REM, MORT, LMBS
Sep. 22, 2015, 8:09 AM
- PennyMac Mortgage (NYSE:PMT) declares $0.47/share quarterly dividend, -23% decrease from prior dividend of $0.61.
- Forward yield 11.52%
- Payable Oct. 29; for shareholders of record Oct. 15; ex-div Oct. 13.
Sep. 11, 2015, 2:37 PM
Aug. 19, 2015, 8:51 AM
- The stock's off by about 30% over the last six months and trades at roughly a 22% discount to June 30 book value.
- At last night's close of $15.90, $150M would be good to repurchase more than 12% of the float.
- PMT flat premarket
Aug. 6, 2015, 10:13 AM
- Q2 net income of $28M or $0.36 per share vs. $7.5M and $0.09 in Q1, and $75.2M and $0.93 one year ago.
- Net investment income of $69.8M vs. $37.7M in Q1, and $120.6M a year ago.
- Book value per share of $20.39 slipped from $20.68 at the end of Q1.
- Investment Activities Segment pretax income of $19.9M on revenue of $47M vs. pretax loss of $8.2M and $18.9M in Q1.
- Distressed mortgage portfolio generated gains of $30.1M, up from $17.2M in Q1.
- The MSR portfolio UPB grew to $37.1B vs. $35.2B. Net loan servicing fees of $13M vs. $8M.
- Correspondent Production Segment pretax income of $5.2M vs. $4.4M in Q1.
- Previously: PennyMac Mortgage misses by $0.13 (Aug. 5)
- PMT -9.3%
Aug. 5, 2015, 4:44 PM
- PennyMac Mortgage (NYSE:PMT): Q2 EPS of $0.36 misses by $0.13.
- Revenue of $69.76M (-42.1% Y/Y)
Jul. 27, 2015, 8:21 AM
- Analyst Kevin Barker downgraded the stock to Neutral in February, and it's lower by 19% since, with two earnings misses, both of which fell short of the dividend.
- WIth the stock now selling for 84% of tangible book value and a dividend yield of 14%, the risk-reward of owning the shares is favorable, says Barker, even though he expects the payout to be cut to $0.50 (from $0.61) this year.
- A potential catalyst is coming in 2016 from PennyMac's (NYSE:PMT) multi-family investments. The upcoming Q2 earnings report could be a relatively strong one too.
- Barker upgrades to Buy with $20.50 price target.
Jul. 7, 2015, 8:03 AM
- A sell-sider finally steps into the carnage in the mortgage REIT sector. Upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform: Annaly Capital (NYSE:NLY), American Capital Agency (NASDAQ:AGNC), PennyMac Mortgage (NYSE:PMT), American Capital Mortgage (NASDAQ:MTGE), AG Mortgage (NYSE:MITT), MFA Financial (NYSE:MFA), CYS Investments (NYSE:CYS), Capstead Mortgage (NYSE:CMO), and Chimera Investment (NYSE:CIM).
- NLY +0.6%, AGNC +0.5%, MTGE +1.9%, MFA +0.9% premarket
- ETFs: MORL, REM, MORT, LMBS
Jun. 30, 2015, 3:11 PM
- The team continues to favor those mREITs creating operating businesses and that can create their own investments, making PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust (NYSE:PMT), Two Harbors (NYSE:TWO), and New Residential (NYSE:NRZ) their top picks - though one wonders why NRZ is lumped in with the mREIT sector.
- Coverage is reinstated on Anworth Mortgage (NYSE:ANH) and Ellington Residential (NYSE:EARN) with Neutral ratings, with the bank noting both are trading to substantial discounts to book value (ANH at 22.8% and EARN at 13.3%).
- Anworth's late-2014 strategy of transforming itself into a hybrid-REIT came too late in the cycle to add a lot of value, says Credit Suisse. While Ellington's active management style should allow it to profit from trading opportunities, the drag from the short TBA position is likely to pull earnings below the current dividend in Q4.
Jun. 25, 2015, 4:38 PM
- PennyMac Mortgage (NYSE:PMT) declares $0.61/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
- Forward yield 13.56%
- Payable July 30; for shareholders of record July 16; ex-div July 14.
PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust is a specialty finance company which through its subsidiaries invests primarily in residential mortgage loans and mortgage-related assets. It operates through two segments: Correspondent Lending and Investment Activities. The Correspondent Lending segment... More
Industry: REIT - Residential
Country: United States
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