Tue, Nov. 24, 3:11 PM
- Potash Corp. (POT +1.5%) is preparing a new takeover approach for K+S (OTCQX:KPLUY), which likely would come next spring, Reuters reports, citing German investor newsletter Platow Brief.
- POT on Oct. 5 withdrew its €7.9B takeover proposal for K+S, citing the decline in global commodity markets and a lack of engagement by K+S management.
- Also: AGU +1.7%, MOS +1.8%, IPI -1%.
Wed, Nov. 11, 5:48 PM
Fri, Oct. 30, 12:58 PM
- News this week included weak results and guidance from Intrepid Potash (IPI -5.4%), Potash (POT -2.8%), Bunge (BG -0.9%).
- Coming next week are earnings from Agrium (AGU -1.6%), Mosaic (MOS -2.1%) and CF Industries (CF +0.5%). While analysts have already sharply reduced estimates for the trio, Jaguar Analytics reminds POT and BG had also already seen big cuts, but still missed expectations and slashed guidance further.
Thu, Oct. 29, 8:45 AM
- Potash Corp. (NYSE:POT) -1.4% premarket after cutting its full-year earnings guidance below consensus, as it expects to sell less potash than expected due to weak demand and prices (Q3 earnings).
- POT lowers its FY 2015 EPS forecast to $1.55-$1.65, below the $1.74 analyst consensus estimate, from an earlier outlook for $1.75-$1.95; it also lowers sales volume guidance to 9M-9.2M metric tons from 9.3M-9.6M metric tons, and now expects potash gross margin of $1.4B-$1.5B.
- The company sees potash demand falling in Latin America from last year’s record level because of currency volatility, and the same factor is behind its reduced forecast for Indian demand; shipments also are expected to be lower in North America.
- POT says it will take temporary inventory shutdowns at three of its mines in Saskatchewan this December, and accelerate the permanent closing of its Penobsquis mine in New Brunswick, reducing production in the current quarter by almost 500K metric tons.
- POT says the average realized potash price fell 11% Y/Y to $250/metric ton in Q3, while nitrogen prices fell 10.4% to $319/metric ton; phosphate rose 9% to $475/metric ton.
Thu, Oct. 29, 6:03 AM
Wed, Oct. 28, 5:30 PM
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Wed, Oct. 7, 11:48 AM
- Potash (POT +2.6%) is higher even as shares are downgraded to Hold from Buy with a $24.50 price target, cut from $37.75, at HSBC, which cites an "uncertain" commercial and financial strategy in light of the failure of the company’s proposed bid for K+S.
- The firm notes a significant decline in prices in the Brazilian potash market over the past two months, with the latest indicators reflecting a decline in prices to $290/ton or below, while also foreseeing negative implications for 2016.
- The downgrade reflects an unclear strategy as well as weaker fundamentals, HSBC says, adding that the attempt to purchase K+S implies that POT still looks for growth by acquisition, meaning shareholders "may not in the end pocket these sums or the value of stakes in ICL or SQM."
Mon, Oct. 5, 7:43 AM
- Potash Corp. (NYSE:POT) +4% premarket after saying it withdrew its offer for rival potash producer K+S (OTCQX:KPLUY), citing challenging market conditions and a lack of engagement by K+S management.
- POT had offered €41/share ($45.98) for the German company, valuing K+S at €7.9B ($8.8B), but K+S refused to negotiate, saying POT’s offer undervalued the company and that a takeover could cost jobs.
- An acquisition of K+S would have given POT an opportunity to realize savings from selling potash within North America from its own western Canada mines and from K+S's Legacy mine.
Wed, Sep. 23, 8:44 AM
- Several German investors in K+S (OTCQX:KPLUY) reportedly are increasingly losing patience with management's rejection of a takeover approach from Potash Corp. (NYSE:POT), as the drop in commodity prices makes a deal more appealing.
- Shareholder frustration could put pressure on K+S to reconsider talks with POT, which have not occurred on a management level, but executive boards of German firms consider aspects such as job security more than shareholder value relative to U.S. companies.
- While many analysts initially saw a fair value for K+S above €45/share in a takeover scenario vs. the actual €41 offer price, some investors now question whether such a price is feasible given the slump in commodity prices.
Mon, Sep. 21, 3:32 PM
- Potash (POT -3%) is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral with a $22 price target at Macquarie, which sees no letup in the multi-year slump in potash prices anytime soon; in fact, the firm thinks the downturn will grow significantly worse.
- The firm foresees an average potash price of just US$254/metric ton next year, down from more than $300 today, citing ongoing weakness in agricultural markets and depreciating currencies in emerging markets.
- Macquarie expects global potash demand to fall by 4.4M metric tons in 2016, and with China sitting on huge potash stocks, the balance of pricing power will shift toward buyers and away from sellers, which could lead to the collapse of the potash contract pricing system.
- Also: AGU -1.5%, MOS -1.6%, IPI -2.5%, SQM -0.9%.
Wed, Sep. 16, 6:48 PM
- Potash Corp. (NYSE:POT) CEO Jochen Tilk talked up the the benefits of the company’s proposed takeover of German rival K+S (OTCQX:KPLUY) today while also saying it is not "actively engaged” in a bid, Bloomberg reports.
- Tilk reportedly pitched investors on the deal, saying the proposed acquisition would give POT greater leverage over potash prices with a larger market share.
- Acquiring K+S would allow POT to expand geographically, particularly into the "attractive" European market, the CEO says, and would help maximize returns at the K+S Legacy potash mine in Saskatchewan, which is scheduled to begin production next year.
- Analysts at Germany’s Bankhaus Lampe suspect POT may soon make a hostile bid.
Wed, Sep. 9, 6:00 PM
Tue, Sep. 8, 3:31 PM
- Potash Corp. (POT +0.3%) clings to gains following unconfirmed reports that the company may be preparing to attempt a hostile takeover of German salt and fertilizer company K+S (OTCQX:KPLUY).
- The timing of the rumor follows a couple of bearish analyst notes over the weekend given ongoing concerns of further declines in potash prices; CIBC notes that Brazil spot prices have declined with reported granular MOP sales ranging $305-$315/metric ton CFR, while U.S. granular MOP barge prices have dropped to $295-$300 FOB NOLA.
- Scotia Bank's Ben Isaacson says the window for a 2015 recovery by Brazil is over, with YTD imports tracking 15% below last year's level; on POT, Isaacson says the stock continues to "reflect near-marginal cost pricing," and he hopes the company will not pay up to acquire K+S, as the transaction "may have better implications for the potash market than Potash Corp. shareholders, depending on price and terms."
Wed, Sep. 2, 11:44 AM
- Intrepid Potash (IPI -1.4%) is lower after disclosing receipt of an imminent danger order from U.S. regulators relating to the ore hoisting shaft at its West Mine near Carlsbad, N.M., requiring the mine to shut down.
- West Mine is IPI's largest, representing more than 40% of the company's total production capacity.
- Other potash producers trade mixed: POT +0.3%, MOS +0.2%, AGU -0.7%.
Thu, Aug. 13, 9:59 AM
- Potash Corp. (POT -1%) opens lower after K+S (OTCQX:KPLUY) affirms its rejection of the €7.9B ($8.8B) takeover proposal by the Canadian company while leaving the door open to an improved bid.
- POT's proposal of €41/share does not even remotely reflect K+S's underlying value, CFO Burkhard Lohr says, also questioning reassurances POT has given on jobs and sites.
- Still, the CFO makes it clear that K+S does not oppose a takeover in principle and would study an improved offer, saying "Don't get me wrong. We are not at all blocking a potential transaction."
- The K+S position seems strengthened by stronger than expected quarterly earnings, as Q2 operating profit rose 14% Y/Y to €179.2M, beating a €168M consensus forecast, citing higher prices for thawing salt in North America, cost cuts and the stronger dollar.
Wed, Aug. 12, 12:58 PM
- The majority of K+S (OTCQX:KPLUY) retail shareholders appears to oppose Potash Corp.'s (POT -0.8%) takeover offer, but Scotiabank analyst Ben Isaacson thinks institutional investors may have a different opinion.
- Isaacson does not see why any institutional K+S shareholder would not jump at the opportunity to cash in at €41/share, and believes they would favor a takeover "based on feedback from K+S institutional holders."
- Given concessions and guarantees POT has made, Isaacson thinks any rejection of the proposal would be based on an emotional attachment to the company, “certainly not due to K+S being undervalued."
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