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Jul. 30, 2015, 6:06 AM
- Potash (NYSE:POT): Q2 EPS of $0.50 misses by $0.01.
- Revenue of $1.73B (-8.5% Y/Y) beats by $10M.
Jul. 29, 2015, 10:21 AM
- Potash Corp. (POT -1.3%) is downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform with a $30 price target, cut from $36, at Raymond James, which cites deteriorating fundamentals in the global potash market.
- The firm says weak crop prices and challenging macro conditions in Brazil, including a weak currency and high interest rates, will continue to hurt demand and limit the possibility of producer price hikes anytime soon; more supply is expected from Russia, while demand has been slow in North America as a result of a shorter application window this year.
- The firm issues its downgrade even as shares are at multi-year lows, but sees no near-term fundamental catalysts that likely would drive the company’s earnings power higher - “If anything, we see increasing risk to the Street’s current 2015-16 estimates."
Jul. 29, 2015, 8:25 AM
- Germany's K+S (OTCQX:KPLUY) has asked economy minister Sigmar Gabriel for help in resisting an unwanted takeover approach by Potash Corp. (NYSE:POT), and has discussed the option of German state bank KfW taking a stake in K+S, the Handelsblatt newspaper reports.
- KfW could take a blocking minority stake but Germany's economy ministry and finance ministry are doubtful they could come up with a "common good" justification for such an intervention, according to the report.
- K+S earlier this month rebuffed POT's proposed bid of €41/share as too low.
Jul. 21, 2015, 1:11 PM
- Potash Corp. (POT +0.2%) has made a fresh attempt to win over the management of takeover target K+S (OTCQX:KPLUY) and the German regional state of Hesse, where it is headquartered, but failed to entice K+S into merger talks, Reuters report.
- POT CEO Jochen Tilk is said to have met with the state premier of Hesse, handing over documents about the company's plans to preserve jobs after a takeover that also were made available to K+S.
- K+S says the latest proposal contained nothing new and still sees no basis for talks.
Jul. 8, 2015, 12:31 PM
- Potash Corp. (POT -1.4%) does not plan to sweeten its bid for German rival K+S (OTCQX:KPLUY), sources tell Reuters, in contrast to media reports that it would consider such a move.
- The proposed bid of €41/share already represented an unusually high premium and should not be taken as a starting point for further increases, the sources say.
- POT was said to be confident of winning over shareholders with its current $8.7B bid, but that it would also be open to raising it slightly under certain conditions.
Jul. 7, 2015, 3:48 PM
- Potash Corp. (POT -2.2%) reportedly would be open to raising its $8.6B bid for K+S (OTCQX:KPLUY) if the German company could reveal more value not currently seen by the Canadian company.
- POT's €41/share bid represents a 43% premium to the average weighted price of K+S shares over the past six months, but K+S CEO Norbert Steiner has said the Legacy project alone is worth at least €21/share on top of €29 for the German company’s existing operations.
- The market may be factoring in a better than 50-50 probability that a deal happens, but J.P. Morgan Ben Scarlett sees only a one-in-three chance of success, believing a deal would face substantial execution risk and anti-trust or other concessions.
- The firm thinks European and North American anti-trust authorities will examine the impact of a deal in their own regions, and perhaps invoke conditions that require approval from authorities in places such as Brazil, China and India.
Jul. 2, 2015, 4:58 PM
- Potash Corp. (NYSE:POT) reportedly plans to analyze K+S’s (OTCQX:KPLUY) response and reasoning behind the rejection of the Canadian company's takeover offer before deciding on its next move, as it still sees strong logic as well as an opportunity to reach an agreement.
- K+S CEO Norbert Steiner sees the logic behind POT's bid as removing higher-cost production from an oversupplied market; indeed, POT has long preached the virtue of price stability and has questioned plans by rival producers to build new mines.
- By proposing a takeover, POT might be looking for a way to slow construction of K+S’s new Legacy mine, and a deal would hand it another aging and costly potash mine in Germany, Citi analyst P.J. Juvekar says.
Jul. 2, 2015, 8:18 AM
- K+S (OTCQX:KPLUY) plans to reject Potash Corp.'s (NYSE:POT) $8.6B-plus takeover offer because it considers the bid too low, Bloomberg reports.
- POT said last week that it made a “friendly” takeover bid, believed to be slightly more than €40/share.
- The German company is preparing to announce its opposition to the bid as early as today, according to the report.
Jun. 29, 2015, 8:58 AM
- Potash Corp. (NYSE:POT) does not plan any mine closures at K+S (OTCQX:KPLUY) if its bid for the German company is successful, according to multiple reports.
- K+S is said to be concerned that POT wants to take capacity out of an oversupplied market in order to boost profitability, but sources tells Reuters that POT intends to keep K+S's German mines operational, would not divest its market-leading salt business, and would continue with the development of a $4B legacy mining project in Canada.
- POT's exact bid amount for K+S has not been stated, but reports say it represents an almost 60% premium to K+S's 12-month trailing average stock price of 26 euros before the news of the takeover proposal, which equates to a price of 41.60 euros/share.
Jun. 26, 2015, 2:50 PM
- Potash Corp.'s (POT -2.1%) attempt to buy rival K+S (OTCQX:KPLUY) and create a company capable of controlling up to 30% of the global potash market is likely to face pushback from the German company and regulatory hurdles, analysts say.
- WSJ reports that K+S is likely to reject the confirmed offer from POT, believed to come in at slightly more than €40/share ($44.80) in cash, since it is seen as undervaluing the dominant position the two could achieve in North America, where POT has major mines and K+S is developing its own mine.
- Many analysts say the combined large market share in North America, and in other markets including Germany, means that German regulators likely would reject a takeover, particularly since Germany nixed a similar takeover attempt in 1997.
- K+S has sunk €2B ($2.2B) into a new Canadian potash mine which should start up in late 2016, which will add low-cost capacity of 2M metric tons/year for K+S - and which POT seems to be trying to scoop up on the cheap, writes WSJ Heard on the Street's Helen Thomas.
Jun. 25, 2015, 2:24 PM
- Potash Corp. (POT +2.2%) is higher following reports that it is in early-stage discussions to acquire German potash supplier K+S AG (OTCQX:KPLUY).
- Any deal could value K+S at more than €7B ($7.9B), or €40/share, according to the Handelsblatt newspaper, which first reported POT’s interest.
- Bloomberg reports that K+S is likely to reject the POT offer because it deems the bid as too low.
Jun. 11, 2015, 7:13 PM
- Mosaic (NYSE:MOS) is reiterated with a Buy rating and $56 price target at Stifel Nicolaus following meetings with senior management.
- The firm cites three main takeaways from the meetings: Phosphate production costs have and will continue to decline as a result of input cost tailwinds, pessimism about potash is overdone despite lower demand in Brazil and North America, and planting in North America likely was better than current market expectations, which could lead to strong fertilizer demand.
- Related tickers: POT, AGU, IPI
May 29, 2015, 11:43 AM
- Potash Corp. (POT -2.3%) is downgraded to Hold from Buy with a $35 price target, cut from $39, at TD Securities, which says global potash prices have been moving sideways at best so far this year despite a number of supply curtailments.
- The firm says it sees few catalysts to move POT’s share price higher.
May 21, 2015, 2:57 PM
- Potash Corp. (POT +1.5%) CEO Jochen Tilk says he views the company's stakes in fertilizer companies Sinofert Holdings and Arab Potash as "strategic," but continues to review whether to keep its shares in Israel Chemical (ICL +0.2%) and SQM (SQM +0.1%).
- Tilk, speaking at a BMO investor conference in New York, says if POT could not build on its SQM and ICL minority stakes, it will consider whether it should keep them.
- ICL CEO Stefan Borgas responds that if POT wants to increase its stake, it should speak directly with Israel's government, adding that many investors have approached ICL about interest in POT's stake.
May 12, 2015, 4:48 PM
- Potash (NYSE:POT) declares $0.38/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
- Forward yield 4.74%
- Payable July 31; for shareholders of record July 10; ex-div July 8.
Apr. 30, 2015, 8:29 AM
- Potash Corp. (NYSE:POT) -2.5% premarket after reporting weaker than expected Q1 earnings and cutting its guidance for the year, warning that 2015 potash prices likely would be lower than expected.
- POT issues downside guidance for Q2, seeing EPS of $0.45-$0.55 vs. $0.57 analyst consensus estimate, and lowers its FY 2015 EPS outlook to $1.75-$2.05 from its previous view of $1.90-2.20 and $2.02 consensus.
- POT maintains its estimate for full-year potash gross margin of $1.5B-$1.8B and sales volumes of 9.2M-9.7M metric tons; it expects market conditions to support a stronger pricing environment for phosphate, and forecasts combined nitrogen and phosphate gross margin of $1.0B-$1.2B for the year.
- Guidance for potash sales volumes for the year was maintained at between 9.2 million and 9.7 million tons, as was its full-year potash gross margin view of between $1.5 billion and $1.8 billion.
- In Q1, potash gross margins rose 43% Y/Y to $428M, helped by higher realized prices and lower per-ton costs, with the average realized potash price of $284/metric ton up from $250 a year earlier; potash sales volumes were relatively flat at 2.3M tons, while sales volumes for both nitrogen and phosphate fell and prices improved.
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