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Apr. 30, 2015, 6:02 AM
- Potash (NYSE:POT): Q1 EPS of $0.44 misses by $0.06.
- Revenue of $1.67B (-0.6% Y/Y) in-line.
Apr. 10, 2015, 11:59 AM
- Uralkali agrees to a less-than-planned $10/metric ton increase in potash sales this year to China, agreeing to supply 850K metric tons of potash at $315/metric ton on a cost and freight basis in 2015, equal to the price agreed by Belarussian Potash Co. with China in March.
- The Belarus contract has set a benchmark for other producers despite being criticized by Uralkali, which had been negotiating a $30 increase.
- Canpotex - the offshore potash sales arm of Potash Corp. (POT +0.6%), Mosaic (MOS -0.2%) and Agrium (AGU +0.7%) - signed a contract with China in late March but did not release price terms.
- Uralkali's 2014 contract had set out terms for supply of 700K metric tons of potash to China at $305.
Mar. 31, 2015, 12:34 PM
- The growing probability that China will devalue its currency could prove potentially “devastating" for fertilizer stocks because global nitrogen prices would plunge instantly with ammonia following in sympathy, Scotiabank's Ben Isaacson says.
- Potash demand destruction would be swift as Chinese farmers push back on soaring local prices required to cover unchanged U.S. dollar prices, although the phosphate market could be spared as lower-cost Chinese capacity would not be able to push non-integrated India producers off the cost curve, Isaacson says.
- "Commodities worldwide would suffer greatly,” the analyst says, noting that Agrium (AGU -1.1%) and Mosaic (MOS -0.9%) would be the better picks if a devaluation occurs but would still suffer “first-degree burns."
- Also: POT +0.4%, CF -1%, SQM -0.9%, IPI -0.5%.
Mar. 30, 2015, 4:59 PM
- Mosaic (NYSE:MOS) says changes to Saskatchewan's potash production tax will cost it $80M-$100M in 2015, and it expects to update all guidance, including CRT and Canadian Royalties, in its Q1 earnings release on April 30.
- The provincial government said earlier this month that it will require potash mining companies to spread out tax deductions on capital spending over a longer period of time, in an effort to plug a C$661M ($525M) drop in revenue from lower oil prices.
- Potash Corp. (NYSE:POT) has said the changes will hurt its 2015 pre-tax earnings by C$75M-C$100M.
Mar. 30, 2015, 11:58 AM
- The Canpotex North American potash consortium says it has finalized 2015 supply contracts with all of its major customers in China.
- Canpotex says shipments to China will reach at least 1.8M metric tons, up from 1.6M in 2014, and may be as much as 2.5M metric tons, depending on supply, demand and logistics; the group does not release price terms but says the contracts are at "current competitive levels."
- Belarusian Potash said earlier this month it signed a contract with China to sell potash for $315/ton including shipping costs, which was $10 more than last year’s price.
- Canpotex represents Potash Corp. (POT +1.5%), Mosaic (MOS +2.6%) and Agrium (AGU +1.5%).
Mar. 20, 2015, 10:49 AM
- Israel Chemicals (ICL +0.7%) says buying part or all of Chilean fertilizer company SQM (SQM +7.4%) would make a “good fit... big for us to swallow, but I’m sure we would look at it,” CEO Stefan Borgas says.
- Opportunities outside Israel have become more attractive for ICL as domestic problems pile up; a windfall tax on resources companies is due to come into effect in 2017 while ICL has failed to win approval for a phosphate mine in Israel because of environmental concerns.
- SQM plunged 17% Wednesday after Potash Corp. (POT +0.7%) withdrew three directors from the company’s board in protest at the handling of a tax probe.
Mar. 19, 2015, 3:29 PM
- Shares of Potash (POT -4.1%) are sharply lower after the Saskatchewan government announced new tax measures in its budget, which the company warns could cut as much as $100M from its profit this year.
- POT says it is in the middle of a $6B investment in the province, and that any government change in the tax rules at this stage would be unfair to the company.
- Shares also are hurt as China and Belarus agreed to a $10/ton increase to $315/metric ton for H1 China potash shipments, disappointing major producers that had been publicly aiming for up to a 10% increase.
- Also: AGU -3.2%, MOS -2.1%, SQM -3.9%, IPI -5.2%.
Mar. 18, 2015, 7:09 PM
- Potash (NYSE:POT) states the Saskatchewan government's plans to change how it taxes potash mining firms are "expected to decrease the company's 2015 pre-tax earnings by CDN $75 to $100 million ($59.5M-$79.4M).
- The tax changes, enacted to offset declining oil revenue, require tax deductions taken by potash miners for capital spending to be spread out over a longer period of time. The move is considered an interim step towards a broader review of Saskatchewan's potash tax/royalty system.
- CEO Jochen Tilk: "PotashCorp is disappointed in the announcement today ... we are nearing completion of a $6 billion investment in Saskatchewan which was based on the existing tax structure remaining in place. Changing the rules midstream impacts the ability of our shareholders to earn a fair return on their capital and undermines Saskatchewan's relative competitiveness."
- POT -0.7% AH to $33.47.
Mar. 18, 2015, 2:12 PM
- Shares of Chilean fertilizer company SQM (SQM -22.1%) plunge after the three representatives on its board from Potash Corp. (POT -0.4%) resigned yesterday in protest at its handling of a campaign financing scandal that has shaken the country.
- SQM fired its CEO on Monday and said it would comply with demands from Chile's government to hand over tax information, as authorities investigate whether money from SQM and other companies was siphoned off to fund electoral campaigns, but POT says requests that SQM fully cooperate were rejected.
- POT owns a 32% stake in the dual share structure of SQM, which has rights to huge nitrates and lithium reserves in Chile, and SQM investors now fear what will come next for the company.
Feb. 9, 2015, 12:59 PM
- Mosaic (MOS +0.9%) is upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight with a $56 price target at Morgan Stanley, which believes the company's phosphate assets are undervalued on an absolute basis.
- The firm also cites MOS' relative valuation relative to key peer Potash Corp. (NYSE:POT) as "too severe," and a balance sheet with spare capacity on both an absolute and relative basis.
- A key risk to the bullish thesis would be another large U.S. corn crop, Stanley says.
Jan. 29, 2015, 8:34 AM
- Potash (NYSE:POT) +1.1% premarket after reporting better than expected Q4 results and raising its dividend by nearly 9% in a sign of confidence in future cash flow and demand for its fertilizer products.
- POT says Q4 potash sales volumes totaled a record 2.5M metric tons, bringing the FY 2-14 total to 9.3M; nitrogen volumes were relatively flat, while phosphate sales volumes fell due to certain production challenges.
- POT says increased sales volumes, lower costs and slightly higher realized prices raised its Q4 potash gross margin to $445M, 95% above the $228M during the year-ago period; Q4's average realized potash price was $284/ton.
- Issues in-line guidance for FY 2015, seeing EPS of $1.90-$2.20 vs. $2.12 analyst consensus estimate; issues in-line guidance for Q1, seeing EPS of $0.45-$0.55 vs. $0.51 consensus.
- Guides for 2015 potash sales volumes of 9.2M-9.7M tons and a full-year potash gross margin of $1.5B-$1.8B.
Jan. 29, 2015, 6:04 AM
- Potash (NYSE:POT): Q4 EPS of $0.49 beats by $0.03.
- Revenue of $1.9B (+23.4% Y/Y) beats by $230M.
Jan. 28, 2015, 5:30 PM
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Jan. 28, 2015, 5:28 PM
- Potash (NYSE:POT) declares $0.38/share quarterly dividend, 8.6% increase from prior dividend of $0.35.
- Forward yield 4.2%
- Payable May 4; for shareholders of record April 13; ex-div April 9.
Jan. 19, 2015, 5:26 PM
- "Demand for potash and phosphates exceeded our expectations during the fourth quarter," says CEO Jim Prokopanko. "Customers came to the market in force."
- Mosaic (NYSE:MOS) expects Q4 EPS of $0.83-$0.88, after excluding notable items (which will add another dime to the results) vs. Street estimates at $0.57. The company sees business strengthening further into 2015.
- Full Q4 results are due on February 11.
- Today's news will also be of interest to owners of Potash (NYSE:POT), Agrium (NYSE:AGU), and Intrepid Potash (NYSE:IPI).
Dec. 19, 2014, 2:54 PM
- Potash (POT +1.9%) is upgraded to Buy from Neutral with a $40 price target, up from $38, at UBS, citing the company's strong dividend and improving free cash flow.
- UBS says the planned closure of Mosaic's Carlsbad operations in Jan. 2015 and the current flood at Uralkali's Solikamsk-2 mine could remove 2.4M -3.4M metric tons of combined capacity from the market and provides an opportunity for POT to gain more volumes, which also could lead to higher pricing.
- POT’s dividend yields ~4%, and UBS believes it provides downside protection given that the dividend can be funded even if potash prices remain flat; the firm thinks that over time POT may be able to return excess cash to shareholders through an increased dividend or further share repurchases.
- Other potash producers are higher: MOS +2%, AGU +0.4%, IPI +2.6%.
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