Oct. 7, 2015, 11:48 AM
- Potash (POT +2.6%) is higher even as shares are downgraded to Hold from Buy with a $24.50 price target, cut from $37.75, at HSBC, which cites an "uncertain" commercial and financial strategy in light of the failure of the company’s proposed bid for K+S.
- The firm notes a significant decline in prices in the Brazilian potash market over the past two months, with the latest indicators reflecting a decline in prices to $290/ton or below, while also foreseeing negative implications for 2016.
- The downgrade reflects an unclear strategy as well as weaker fundamentals, HSBC says, adding that the attempt to purchase K+S implies that POT still looks for growth by acquisition, meaning shareholders "may not in the end pocket these sums or the value of stakes in ICL or SQM."
Oct. 5, 2015, 7:43 AM
- Potash Corp. (NYSE:POT) +4% premarket after saying it withdrew its offer for rival potash producer K+S (OTCQX:KPLUY), citing challenging market conditions and a lack of engagement by K+S management.
- POT had offered €41/share ($45.98) for the German company, valuing K+S at €7.9B ($8.8B), but K+S refused to negotiate, saying POT’s offer undervalued the company and that a takeover could cost jobs.
- An acquisition of K+S would have given POT an opportunity to realize savings from selling potash within North America from its own western Canada mines and from K+S's Legacy mine.
Sep. 23, 2015, 8:44 AM
- Several German investors in K+S (OTCQX:KPLUY) reportedly are increasingly losing patience with management's rejection of a takeover approach from Potash Corp. (NYSE:POT), as the drop in commodity prices makes a deal more appealing.
- Shareholder frustration could put pressure on K+S to reconsider talks with POT, which have not occurred on a management level, but executive boards of German firms consider aspects such as job security more than shareholder value relative to U.S. companies.
- While many analysts initially saw a fair value for K+S above €45/share in a takeover scenario vs. the actual €41 offer price, some investors now question whether such a price is feasible given the slump in commodity prices.
Sep. 21, 2015, 3:32 PM
- Potash (POT -3%) is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral with a $22 price target at Macquarie, which sees no letup in the multi-year slump in potash prices anytime soon; in fact, the firm thinks the downturn will grow significantly worse.
- The firm foresees an average potash price of just US$254/metric ton next year, down from more than $300 today, citing ongoing weakness in agricultural markets and depreciating currencies in emerging markets.
- Macquarie expects global potash demand to fall by 4.4M metric tons in 2016, and with China sitting on huge potash stocks, the balance of pricing power will shift toward buyers and away from sellers, which could lead to the collapse of the potash contract pricing system.
- Also: AGU -1.5%, MOS -1.6%, IPI -2.5%, SQM -0.9%.
Sep. 16, 2015, 6:48 PM
- Potash Corp. (NYSE:POT) CEO Jochen Tilk talked up the the benefits of the company’s proposed takeover of German rival K+S (OTCQX:KPLUY) today while also saying it is not "actively engaged” in a bid, Bloomberg reports.
- Tilk reportedly pitched investors on the deal, saying the proposed acquisition would give POT greater leverage over potash prices with a larger market share.
- Acquiring K+S would allow POT to expand geographically, particularly into the "attractive" European market, the CEO says, and would help maximize returns at the K+S Legacy potash mine in Saskatchewan, which is scheduled to begin production next year.
- Analysts at Germany’s Bankhaus Lampe suspect POT may soon make a hostile bid.
Sep. 9, 2015, 6:00 PM
- Potash (NYSE:POT) declares $0.38/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
- Forward yield 5.96%
- Payable Nov. 3; for shareholders of record Oct. 13; ex-div Oct. 9.
Sep. 8, 2015, 3:31 PM
- Potash Corp. (POT +0.3%) clings to gains following unconfirmed reports that the company may be preparing to attempt a hostile takeover of German salt and fertilizer company K+S (OTCQX:KPLUY).
- The timing of the rumor follows a couple of bearish analyst notes over the weekend given ongoing concerns of further declines in potash prices; CIBC notes that Brazil spot prices have declined with reported granular MOP sales ranging $305-$315/metric ton CFR, while U.S. granular MOP barge prices have dropped to $295-$300 FOB NOLA.
- Scotia Bank's Ben Isaacson says the window for a 2015 recovery by Brazil is over, with YTD imports tracking 15% below last year's level; on POT, Isaacson says the stock continues to "reflect near-marginal cost pricing," and he hopes the company will not pay up to acquire K+S, as the transaction "may have better implications for the potash market than Potash Corp. shareholders, depending on price and terms."
Sep. 2, 2015, 11:44 AM
- Intrepid Potash (IPI -1.4%) is lower after disclosing receipt of an imminent danger order from U.S. regulators relating to the ore hoisting shaft at its West Mine near Carlsbad, N.M., requiring the mine to shut down.
- West Mine is IPI's largest, representing more than 40% of the company's total production capacity.
- Other potash producers trade mixed: POT +0.3%, MOS +0.2%, AGU -0.7%.
Aug. 13, 2015, 9:59 AM
- Potash Corp. (POT -1%) opens lower after K+S (OTCQX:KPLUY) affirms its rejection of the €7.9B ($8.8B) takeover proposal by the Canadian company while leaving the door open to an improved bid.
- POT's proposal of €41/share does not even remotely reflect K+S's underlying value, CFO Burkhard Lohr says, also questioning reassurances POT has given on jobs and sites.
- Still, the CFO makes it clear that K+S does not oppose a takeover in principle and would study an improved offer, saying "Don't get me wrong. We are not at all blocking a potential transaction."
- The K+S position seems strengthened by stronger than expected quarterly earnings, as Q2 operating profit rose 14% Y/Y to €179.2M, beating a €168M consensus forecast, citing higher prices for thawing salt in North America, cost cuts and the stronger dollar.
Aug. 12, 2015, 12:58 PM
- The majority of K+S (OTCQX:KPLUY) retail shareholders appears to oppose Potash Corp.'s (POT -0.8%) takeover offer, but Scotiabank analyst Ben Isaacson thinks institutional investors may have a different opinion.
- Isaacson does not see why any institutional K+S shareholder would not jump at the opportunity to cash in at €41/share, and believes they would favor a takeover "based on feedback from K+S institutional holders."
- Given concessions and guarantees POT has made, Isaacson thinks any rejection of the proposal would be based on an emotional attachment to the company, “certainly not due to K+S being undervalued."
Aug. 10, 2015, 8:39 AM
- K+S (OTCQX:KPLUY) says a majority of its private shareholders support management's rejection of the takeover proposal by Potash Corp. (NYSE:POT).
- K+S says it conducted a survey last month among its private shareholders, who together hold ~30% of the company; 28% of those shareholders responded with 84% supporting the rejection, 4% saying they would sell their shares at POT's proposed €41/share ($44.95) price, and 28% approving a significantly higher offer.
- The news would appear to further diminish POT's chances of taking over its rival, after K+S said Friday it had rebuffed another unsolicited takeover approach from the company.
Aug. 7, 2015, 8:43 AM
- Potash Corp. (NYSE:POT) is sticking to its earlier bid of €7.85B ($8.6B) for K+S (OTCQX:KPLUY), the Germany salt and fertilizer says after receiving an unsolicited letter from its Canadian rival that seeks to take over the company.
- K+S had previously rejected the €41/share takeover approach, saying the proposal undervalued its products and projects and could compromise jobs and strategy; POT management, on the other hand, thinks K+S’s suggestion that it’s worth €50/share is unwarranted.
Aug. 4, 2015, 4:49 PM
- Canpotex, the potash export sales arm for Potash Corp. (NYSE:POT), Mosaic (NYSE:MOS) and Agrium (NYSE:AGU), says it has hired Ken Seitz, chief commercial officer of uranium producer Cameco (NYSE:CCJ), as its new CEO.
- The current president and CEO, Steve Dechka, is retiring at the end of the year after 32 years of service with the company.
Jul. 30, 2015, 8:46 AM
- Potash Corp. (NYSE:POT) +0.9% premarket after slightly missing Q2 earnings expectations and reporting in-line revenues.
- POT lowered the top end of its full-year EPS forecast to $1.95 from $2.05 while keeping the low end of guidance unchanged at $1.75, vs. the analyst consensus estimate of $1.89, but the company issues an upbeat outlook, saying “While we have faced some near-term market headwinds, we are encouraged by the strength of global potash demand, especially in offshore markets."
- POT says Q2 potash production remained flat at 2.5M metric tons, while the average realized potash price rose 4% Y/Y to $273/metric ton; potash gross margin jumped 5.6% to $417M, but costs increased as the company sourced less potash from its lower-cost mines.
- The biggest Q2 weakness was the nitrogen business, where production fell 2% Y/Y and POT’s realized selling price was $334/metric ton, down from $393 in the year-ago quarter; the company says results were hurt rising supply in key producing regions.
- POT sees another solid year for potash demand, with total global shipments reaching 60M metric tons in 2015, would be just below 2014's record of 61M.
- POT says little about its proposal to acquire K+S, only reiterating that it wants to have “constructive” discussions with K+S management.
Jul. 30, 2015, 6:06 AM
- Potash (NYSE:POT): Q2 EPS of $0.50 misses by $0.01.
- Revenue of $1.73B (-8.5% Y/Y) beats by $10M.
Jul. 29, 2015, 10:21 AM
- Potash Corp. (POT -1.3%) is downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform with a $30 price target, cut from $36, at Raymond James, which cites deteriorating fundamentals in the global potash market.
- The firm says weak crop prices and challenging macro conditions in Brazil, including a weak currency and high interest rates, will continue to hurt demand and limit the possibility of producer price hikes anytime soon; more supply is expected from Russia, while demand has been slow in North America as a result of a shorter application window this year.
- The firm issues its downgrade even as shares are at multi-year lows, but sees no near-term fundamental catalysts that likely would drive the company’s earnings power higher - “If anything, we see increasing risk to the Street’s current 2015-16 estimates."
Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. is a fertilizer company, which produces crop nutrients, including potash, phosphate and nitrogen. The company operates through three business segments: Potash, Phosphate and Nitrogen. The Potash segment includes mineral deposits left by ancient evaporated seas... More
Sector: Basic Materials
Industry: Agricultural Chemicals
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