Ackman Targeted The Wrong MLM: Primerica Will Collapse Before Herbalife
The Friendly Bear • 75 Comments
The Friendly Bear • 75 Comments
New Regulations Could Destroy Primerica
Duane Bair • 81 Comments
Duane Bair • 81 Comments
Thu, Nov. 17, 4:14 PM
Thu, Nov. 10, 12:32 PM
- The regulatory regime will be "more constructive" under a President Trump, says management at the company's investor day.
- Webcast and presentation slides
- Of the post-election surge in interest rates, CIO Steve Goulart says he's a fan, and that the move is "favorable to us."
- Ahead of today's meeting, the company announced a $3B buyback plan.
- MET's 4.7% gain in this session puts the two-day advance at about 12% - the best two-day move for the stock since 2009.
- Other insurers: Prudential (PRU +3.1%), Manulife (MFC +7.2%), Sun Life (SLF +8.3%), Lincoln Financial (LNC +2%), Primerica (PRI +10.6%), Voya (VOYA +6.2%), AIG (AIG +3.2%)
Wed, Nov. 9, 4:09 PM
Wed, Nov. 9, 11:26 AM
- The 10-year Treasury yield is up a whopping 10 basis points to 1.96%, surely a boon to yield-starved insurers. But for the larger players like MetLife (MET +5.2%), Prudential (PRU +4.2%), and AIG (AIG +1.6%), they may be able to look forward to end of their SIFI designations, and the boosted regulation and capital requirements that go with it (MetLife, of course, has already won a court case challenging its SIFI designation).
- Trump is likely to nominate two or three new Fed governors, says Capital Alpha Partners' Ian Katz, who doesn't expect Janet Yellen to seek to stay on when her term as chairman expires in 2018. He doesn't expect this to happen right away, but look for a Trump Treasury to de-designate AIG and Prudential (and presumably drop the MetLife appeal).
- Others enjoying the higher rates: Lincoln National (LNC +6.6%), Voya Financial (VOYA +5.2%), Primerica (PRI +10.4%)
Tue, Nov. 8, 5:35 PM
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Mon, Nov. 7, 4:44 PM
Mon, Sep. 26, 3:13 PM
- In what doesn't sound like great news for the already-yield-starved insurance industry, cash balances are "ticking upward," says Zach Buchwald, head of BlackRock's insurance asset-management operation.
- Buchwald: “In today’s environment, where every basis point is so precious, within your core fixed income, we want to be investing wisely and generating the best risk-adjusted returns we can, and a large cash balance doesn’t help.”
- Nearly half of 315 insurers surveyed globally expect to boost cash holdings in coming months - that's up from 36% a year ago, says BlackRock. At issue are poor performance in alternative investments and credit concerns following a sizable narrowing in spreads this year.
- Struggling insurers are past the point of expecting rising interest rates, says Buchwald. So - other than cash - where else will the money go? Allocations to private-equity appear to be set to rise, and outfits like AIG are turning to direct lending. At MetLife (NYSE:MET), commercial real estate loans hit a record last year.
- Other interested parties: PRU, LNC, MFC, SLF, PRI, VOYA
Wed, Aug. 10, 4:12 PM
Mon, Aug. 8, 4:11 PM
Sun, Aug. 7, 5:35 PM
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Tue, Jul. 19, 4:33 PM
- Primerica (PRI -6.4%) will collapse before Herbalife, says SA contributor The Friendly Bear in a Pro article published this morning.
- "Between the DOL fiduciary rule and Friday’s Herbalife settlement from the FTC, we think there is almost no chance that Primerica’s MLM structure can survive through 2018."
- The stock, he says, is the most asymmetric situation he's ever seen, with 70% downside, zero long-term upside, and real potential of the stock going to zero.
Mon, May 9, 4:43 PM
- Primerica (NYSE:PRI) declares $0.17/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
- Forward yield 1.35%
- Payable June 16; for shareholders of record May 20; ex-div May 18.
Wed, May 4, 4:48 PM
- Primerica (NYSE:PRI): Q1 EPS of $0.93 beats by $0.02.
- Revenue of $363.74M (+5.9% Y/Y) beats by $3.24M.
Tue, May 3, 5:35 PM
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Thu, Feb. 11, 12:51 PM
- At the moment it's yet again looking like "wait till next year," for the sustained rise in interest rates the life insurers need to be able to earn some real money.
- Last night it was Prudential Financial (PRU -10.1%) joining MetLife (MET -4.7%) and Lincoln Financial (LNC -9.2%) in reporting a disappointing Q4, with investment results contributing $105M less this year that they did in Q4 of 2014.
- While still upbeat on the economic outlook, Janet Yellen is spending an uncomfortable amount of time in her Congressional testimony talking about negative interest rates, and a chart of Google searches for "negative interest rates" is through the roof.
- Manulife (MFC -10.3%), Sun Life (SLF -3%), Primerica (PRI -3.7%), Voya Financial (VOYA -4.6%)
- The 10-year Treasury yield is lower by 10 basis points to 1.6%, and short-term rate futures have begun pricing in a rate cut by the Fed.
Wed, Feb. 10, 4:06 PM
- Primerica (NYSE:PRI): Q4 EPS of $1.01 beats by $0.03.
- Revenue of $354.13M (+2.5% Y/Y) misses by $6.01M.