Fri, Dec. 2, 11:51 AM
- The financial sector is taking a breather from its staggering post-election run, with a post-jobs report dip in rates a good enough excuse for satiated bulls to cash in some chips.
- XLF -1%, KBE -0.7%, KRE -0.7%.
- Individual issues: Bank of America (BAC -1.8%), Morgan Stanley (MS -1.2%), Citigroup (C -1.9%), M&T (MTB -1.1%), Flagstar (FBC -1.7%), Fifth Third (FITB -1.6%), PNC Financial (PNC -1.4%), Prudential (PRU -1.1%), Lincoln National (LNC -1.9%), Schwab (SCHW -2.1%), State Street (STT -1.8%)
- No longer part of the financial sector as far as the GICS classification, REITs are enjoying the respite in rates. IYR +1.6%, VNQ +1.6%
- Realty Income (O +4.1%), Vereit (VER +3%), Omega Healthcare (OHI +3.2%), Welltower (HCN +3.5%), HCP (HCP +2.7%), Universal Health (UHT +4.4%), W.P. Carey (WPC +2%), Lexington Realty (LXP +2.5%), Essex Property (ESS +1.2%), Aimco (AIV +1.5%), General Growth (GGP +2.6%), Brixmor (BRX +1.6%), Federal Realty (FRT +1.8%), Kimco (KIM +1.2%), Public Storage (PSA +1.4%), Life Storage (LSI +1.4%), Boston Properties (BXP +1.2%), Stag Industrial (STAG +2.4%).
Tue, Nov. 15, 12:29 PM
- Argus' Jacob Kilstein cuts his 2017 FFO estimate to $10.50 per share from $10.58 after Public Storage (NYSE:PSA) guided to a slowdown in same-store sales growth and occupancy, coupled with higher advertising costs over then next few quarters.
- The team also cuts its price target to $270 from $284, though that still represents sizable upside from the current $213.
- "Public Storage appears on track to continue its strong performance in the coming quarters through rent increases, a solid development and redevelopment pipeline, and accretive acquisitions," says Kilstein, recommending clients buy the dip.
Mon, Nov. 14, 12:23 PM
- The daughter of Public Storage (NYSE:PSA) co-founder B. Wayne Hughes, board member and 10%-plus owner Tamara Gustavson last week purchased nearly 70K shares of stock at about $215 each, bringing her stake in the company to nearly 16.4M shares.
- Since hitting an all-time high of about $275 in April, PSA has shed roughly 23%.
Mon, Nov. 14, 10:03 AM
- The bond market was closed on Friday, keeping rates in check and allowing REITs a respite from the week's bout of selling. The respite was short-lived though, with the selloff resuming this morning as the 10-year Treasury yield jumps 10 basis points to 2.255%.
- Realty Income (O -1.5%), Public Storage (PSA -1.3%), Welltower (HCN -0.6%), Equity Residential (AVB -1.6%), AvalonBay (AVB -1.6%), Simon Property (SPG -1.5%), Kimco (KIM -0.5%), Eastgroup (EGP -0.5%), American Campus (ACC -1.7%).
- Fading the action are some office REITs as players eye a big boost in government spending: Government Properties (GOV +1.6%), Boston Properties (BXP +1%), First Potomac (FPO +1.2%).
- Also fading the negativity despite the stronger dollar are the previously very roughed-up lodging REITs as perhaps they discount a stronger economy: Ashford Hospitality (AHT +3.7%), Sunstone Hotel (SHO +3.2%), LaSalle Hotel (LHO +2.2%), Pebblebrook Realty (PEB +3.7%), Summit Hotel (INN +1.6%), Hospitality Properties (HPT +1.2%), RLJ Lodging (RLJ +2.8%)
- Previously: "Bond vigilantes" term comes out of retirement (Nov. 14)
- ETFs: VNQ, IYR, DRN, RQI, URE, SCHH, ICF, RWR, SRS, RNP, RFI, JRS, KBWY, NRO, DRV, RIT, RIF
Sat, Nov. 5, 12:15 PM
- Interest rate fears have helped send REITs tumbling over the past few months, with the Vanguard REIT Index ETF (NYSEARCA:VNQ) down from 15% from its July high, and now yielding 4.3% - more than double that of the S&P 500.
- Source: Barron's Andrew Bary
- Notable REITs at 52-week lows include Equity Residential (NYSE:EQR), Macerich (NYSE:MAC), Simon Property Group (NYSE:SPG), and Public Storage (NYSE:PSA).
- Green Street's Mike Kirby: REITs aren't pound-the-table inexpensive, but on the attractive side of fair value. Citigroup: "While there is undoubtedly deceleration in fundamentals ... the REIT sector is in its best shape from a balance-sheet, portfolio, and operations perspective in its history.”
- Negatives include too much apartment supply in formerly hot markets on the coasts, a flattening in Manhattan office rents, and pressure on malls from the boom in e-commerce.
- Even with all that, Kirby sees the industry's AFFO rising 6.3% this year, and 7% in 2017 and 2018. REITs trade at 20x forward AFFO - pricey vs. the S&P 500, but worth it if they produce better profit growth.
- Another valuation method is to look at the cap rates of portfolio properties, and a check finds REITs like Boston Properties (NYSE:BXP), and Simon Property are selling below their private-market values. Why, asks Kirby, would a pension fund or sovereign wealth fund pay a higher price (lower cap rate) for a Manhattan property when they could get a whole portfolio of NYC office buildings at a cheaper valuation by buying SL Green (NYSE:SLG)?
- ETFs: VNQ, IYR, DRN, RQI, URE, SCHH, ICF, RWR, SRS, RNP, RFI, JRS, KBWY, NRO, DRV, RIT, RIF, REK, DRA, FRI, FTY, FREL, LRET, PSR, WREI, XLRE, IARAX, RORE
Mon, Oct. 31, 11:37 AM
- Is the bottom in yet for self-storage REITs? The previously favored group has been in a sizable slide since April, with sector giant Public Storage (NYSE:PSA) leading the way with about a 25% drop.
- "Two factors support the view that PSA’s same store growth deceleration is near over," says Goldman's Andrew Rosivach, upgrading to Neutral from Sell. First, trailing 12-month employment growth - highly correlated to PSA same-store revenue growth - has ceased declining for five straight months. Second, the company's period-end rent and occupancy levels are slowing less.
- He also sees Public Storage's growth surpassing that of its REIT peers by an average of 1.7% in 2017.
- The $220 price target compares to the current $207.75, and is based on a target 2019 AFFO multiple of 19.4x - a 10% premium to the sector.
- PSA +1.1% on today's session.
Thu, Oct. 27, 10:42 AM
- The 10-year Treasury yield is making new bear-cycle highs today, up another seven basis points to 1.86% - its perkiest level since May. The move up in yields is global, with U.K. 10-years up 11 bps and Germany's up 8.5 bps.
- Earlier today, the U.K. reported Q3 GDP growth of 0.5% - far better than what had been predicted post-Brexit.
- Facing at least a little more competition in the yield department, equity REITs have turned sharply lower, with VNQ down 2.1%, and IYR off 1.8%. Mortgage REITs (REM -0.6%) are faring a little better as solid Q3 earnings begin to roll in.
- The major U.S. averages have given up early gains and turned red, led by the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, both off 0.25%.
- Individual equity REITs: Verreit (VER -2.2%), Welltower (HCN -2.4%), Equity Residential (EQR -1.6%), Omega Healthcare (OHI -3.2%), Simon Property (SPG -3.2%), General Growth (GGP -2.6%), Public Storage (PSA -2.9%), Gramercy Property (GPT -1.9%), Washington Real Estate (WRE -1.2%), Hersha (HT -2.9%), Sunstone Hotel (SHO -1.4%), Stag Industrial (STAG -2%)
- Mortgage REITs: AGNC Investment (AGNC -1.5%), Annaly (NLY -0.7%), Two Harbors (TWO -0.4%), Capstead (CMO +0.3%)
- ETFs: VNQ, IYR, MORL, REM, MORT, DRN, RQI, URE, SCHH, ICF, RWR, SRS, RNP, RFI, JRS, KBWY, NRO, DRV, RIT, RIF, REK, DRA, FRI, FTY, FREL, LRET, PSR, WREI, XLRE, IARAX, RORE
Thu, Oct. 27, 8:58 AM
- Q3 FFO per share of $2.51vs. $2.27 earned in Q3 one year ago. Core FFO per share of $2.53 vs. $2.33 one year ago.
- Same-store (2K of them) revenue of $542.3M up 5.1% Y/Y; operating costs of $142M up 6.4%; NOI of $400.3M up 4.7%; gross margin of 73.8% down 30 bps.
- Square foot occupancy flat at 95.3%; rent per occupied square foot of $17.06 up 5.2%; per available square foot ((REVPAF)) of $16.25 up 5.2%.
- Quarterly dividend is boosted 11.1% to $2 per share.
- Conference call at 2 ET
- Previously: Public Storage EPS and Self-storage facilities revenue in-line (Oct. 26)
- PSA flat premarket
Thu, Oct. 27, 6:27 AM
Wed, Oct. 26, 10:40 PM
Tue, Oct. 25, 5:35 PM
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Tue, Oct. 4, 4:29 PM
- Chatter of the ECB's plan to begin tapering monthly bond purchases sent interest rates sharply higher today, and REITs sharply lower.
- The 10-year Treasury yield gained 6.3 basis points to 1.688%.
- The mortgage REITs (REM -2.2%): Annaly (NLY -3.1%), Armour (ARR -1.2%), Two Harbors (TWO -2.9%), Chimera (CIM -3.9%), CYS (CYS -2.4%), Invesco (IVR -3%), Western Asset (WMC -2.8%), MFA Financial (MFA -2.7%), AG Mortgage (MITT -3.1%)
- Equity REITs (VNQ -1.4%): Realty Income (O -2.6%), WellTower (HCN -2.6%), HCP (HCP -2%), Vereit (VER -2.3%), Equity Residential (EQR -0.9%), Simon Property (SPG -1.5%), Public Storage (PSA -1.8%), Government Properties (GOV -2.7%), Gramercy Property (GPT -2.2%), Stag Industrial (STAG -3%)
- ETFs: VNQ, IYR, MORL, REM, MORT, DRN, RQI, URE, SCHH, ICF, RWR, SRS, RNP, RFI, JRS, KBWY, NRO, DRV, RIT, RIF, REK, DRA, FRI, FTY, FREL, LRET, PSR, WREI, XLRE, IARAX
Mon, Sep. 26, 3:26 PM
- A 1.55% decline in Europe amid worries over the financial condition of Deutsche Bank has helped send the U.S. averages lower by 0.85%, and Treasury yields to their slimmest this month. At the short end, traders are cutting bets on the chance of a rate hike at any point in 2016.
- Fading that negative action are the REITs, with the Vanguard REIT Index Fund (NYSEARCA:VNQ) higher by 0.3% and the iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (NYSEARCA:IYR) up 0.2%. The iShares Mortgage REIT ETF (NYSEARCA:REM) is also up 0.2%.
- Among individual issues: Annaly Capital (NLY +0.8%), American Capital Agency (AGNC +0.7%), Realty Income (O +1.1%), Omega Healthcare (OHI +1%), HCP (HCP +0.8%), Aimco (AIV +1.7%), Simon Property (SPG +0.5%), Kimco (KIM +0.8%), Public Storage (PSA +0.9%), Stag Industrial (STAG +0.5%)
Mon, Sep. 12, 8:06 AM
Tue, Aug. 16, 10:59 AM
- The major averages are off just modestly, but the Vanguard REIT Index Fund (NYSEARCA:VNQ) is lower by 1% as FRBNY boss Bill Dudley hit the tape this morning suggesting the possibility of a September rate hike and telling markets they're not being aggressive enough in pricing in Fed monetary tightening.
- Fed Funds futures are currently pointing to about a 50% chance of one rate hike this year, and barely pricing in any Fed moves next year.
- On tap for REITs this month is their move out of the financial sector and into their own separate sector classification.
- A few names today: Kimco (KIM -1.7%), Realty Income (O -2.1%), Omega Healthcare (OHI -1.2%), Medical Properties Trust (MPW -1.2%), W.P. Carey (WPC -1.7%), Aimco (AIV -1.4%), Simon Property (SPG -1.1%), Public Storage (PSA -0.7%), Government Properties (GOV -1%), Boston Properties (BXP -1.2%), Stag Industrial (STAG -1.2%)
- ETFs: VNQ, IYR, DRN, RQI, URE, SCHH, ICF, RWR, SRS
Thu, Aug. 11, 11:30 AM
- Today it's Public Storage (PSA -0.8%) - cut to Neutral from Buy by BAML's Jeffrey Spector, citing valuation and increasing concessions in weaker markets.
- The sector giant by a wide margin, Public Storage has had an impressive run higher over the past few years, topping out at $277 per share in April. Current price is $230.50.
- Previously: Sell side falls further out of love with self storage REITs (Aug. 10)